Texans' Current Draft Position: 9-13

[NBT]

Originally Posted by painekiller

So right now, sadly my 6-10 prediction is looking good.

Uhhmmmm........... 5-11. We lose both of the last two games.

[Nconroe]

Sounds Like Garrard is out as QB for Jags this next week, that could be bad for our draft position. Although I am ok in general with trying to win every game you can.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Don't know how it will finish up but as of last week, Cleveland had had the toughest schedule in the league to date so we will probably be picking in front of them if we have the same record.

And I can't believe I just typed a sentence assuming we will have the same record as Cleveland. Wow. They have a rookie 3rd round pick/washed-up Delhomme at QB, a RB nobody wanted, and basically no receivers and will probably have the same or better record than us despite playing a tougher schedule. In just a couple years, Mangini (who I don't even consider to be a good coach) has taken a bunch of castoffs and already made them into a better team than the Texans. But let's just stick to our 43 year plan. As McNair would say, "We're on the right track."

That's why I want Rob Ryan! Look at how many games the Browns have allowed more than 30 points or how many times they held a team under 20. Then compare that to the "top defenses" in the league that actually have offenses that can score, and win Time of Possession.

[HPF Bob]

With the Texans' season done, the first six picks are set.

1. Carolina (2-14)
2. Denver (4-12)
3. Cincinnati (4-12)
4. Buffalo (4-12)
5. Arizona (5-11)
6. Cleveland (5-11)

Picks 7-14 could all be 6-10 if Seattle loses tonight. As best as I can tell right now, it lines up like this:

7. San Francisco
8. Seattle (if they lose tonight)
9. Washington
10. Dallas
11. Tennessee
12. Houston
13. Detroit
14. Minnesota

So, it seems that win cost us five draft spots.

[dadmg]

This is what GBN and NFL DraftCountdown have, post-Seahawks game:

1 Carolina 2-14 .574
2 Denver 4-12 .516
3 Buffalo 4-12 .578
4 Cincinnati 4-12 .582
5 Arizona 5-11 .465
6 Cleveland 5-11 .570
7 San Francisco 6-10 .488
8 Tennessee 6-10 .508
9 Dallas 6-10 .512
10 Washington 6-10 .516
11 Houston 6-10 .523

[HPF Bob]

That's probably correct. Sucks that Tennessee beat us handily and then snuck past us for a better draft position. That's why I don't like the strength of schedule as the tie-breaker.

IMO, it ought to be the same tie-breaker as for determining playoff seeding except the worst move on instead of the best.

[Arky]

Not to turn this into a prospects thread but Draft Countdown has LB Von Miller at #8 and DT Stephen Paea at #11 and they're only using Seniors. There might still be a shot at Miller at #11....

[TheMatrix31]

I'd rather go with secondary or DL than another LB....but Cushing and Ryans have been very nice to us so far as very early picks....I dunno.

Admittedly, I don't know much about college football.

[HPF Bob]

First, they need to determine who the DC will be and if they run a 4-3 or a 3-4. Miller would be a great addition in a 3-4 as a rush LB (although Barwin might be the best candidate for that role). Miller gets upfield very fast and puts pressure on the opponents to adjust. Remember the Cowboys (if the DC is Wade Phillips and he switches us to a 3-4) drafted Demarcus Ware in just about the same spot and he instantly upgraded the Cowboys' defense.

I'm not saying this is exactly how I'd go (is there a CB worth that high a pick?) but if we go 3-4 then Miller becomes a solid pick at that slot.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Arky

Not to turn this into a prospects thread but Draft Countdown has LB Von Miller at #8 and DT Stephen Paea at #11 and they're only using Seniors. There might still be a shot at Miller at #11....

When the juniors are added in, Miller drops, he is a top 25 pick at worse, most likely a top 15 at best. At number 11, I would grab him if we are going to a 3-4.

If Paea weighs in under 300 then he is a 3-4 DE and as such an unlikely pick for us, we appear loaded with 3-4 DE types.

One good thing about Wade Philips version of the 3-4 is he runs a one gap system for the DEs. That means it is more about penetration and attaching the line verses the more familiar tie up the blocker type system that Nick Fangio ran while here, BTW his Stanford defense had a pretty nice season this year. A guy we might want to target in the 3rd round from Stanford is NT Sione Fua.