I'm done with Kubiak and Schaub. They need to go

[WMH]

Interesting read from Barnwell:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...broncos-week-4

Schaub Story
It's safe to say that Texans fans are beginning to turn on Matt Schaub. Schaub, whose skill level almost perfectly matches the public perception that the Texans are good enough to make the playoffs and not good enough to do any serious damage once they get there, threw a horrific pick-six on Sunday to open the door for a Seahawks comeback win, which is exactly what ended up occurring in overtime. Houston fans were so angry after the game and Schaub's third pick-six in three weeks that they went to the parking lot and started burning Schaub's jersey. That's the third-most destructive act you can execute as a Houston sports fan after denouncing advanced basketball statistics and attending an Astros game, so these are pretty brutal times.

Allow me to play both sides here. Schaub's interception was grotesque and impossibly ill-advised, and it's been a distressing stretch of pick-sixes from him, but this bad run comes with some excuses and there's no reason to think that Houston absolutely needs to upgrade from Schaub to have a quarterback "good enough" to win the Super Bowl.

Start with that throw, which was more shocking and virulent than anything else on television Sunday night. The throw itself is ugly on aesthetics alone; Schaub rolls out right off play-action and, with a man in his face, decides to lob up a pass to a receiver he must have thought was wide open. Somehow, he fails to see the best cornerback in the league lurking behind that tight end, and Richard Sherman is all too happy to undercut the throw as it hangs in space for all eternity. It's a pass we would all have made fun of for weeks had it been thrown by Mark Sanchez or Blaine Gabbert.

What's worse is that it came in a situation when Schaub needed to err on the side of protecting the football. Houston was facing a third-and-4 with 2:51 left in a game where it was up 20-13; even if the Texans didn't convert on third down and punted, Seattle was going to have to drive the length of the field and score a touchdown to tie the game. I'm all for being aggressive and trying to win games, and I actually like Gary Kubiak's decision to try to throw the ball with a safe pass underneath on third down, but Schaub should never have even considered forcing a throw. He should have been happy to take a sack and either run clock or force Seattle to take a timeout. He needs to know that, and you can imagine how hard it will be for Kubiak to trust him in the same situation next time, even though a throw might be the best call in that game down the line. In all, ESPN Stats & Information calculated Schaub's interception to be the most meaningful play of the week in terms of win expectancy, as the Texans had a 95.1 percent chance of winning the game before the play and merely a 56.3 percent chance of winning afterward. The game wasn't over, since Houston still had a two-minute drill and two drives in overtime to try to win the game, but it failed to score on any of those possessions and lost a heartbreaker when the Seahawks kicked a field goal to win it late in overtime.

Terrible throw. Now, again, let's put it in context. It was Schaub's third pick-six in three weeks, but it's not like Schaub has some disease where he throws awful pick-sixes; according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Schaub didn't throw a single pick-six in either the 2011 or 2012 seasons. He has 10 across seven seasons as the Houston starter, which isn't an egregious average. Fans wouldn't think too hard about a quarterback throwing an interception per week over a three-week stretch, but because they've resulted in instant touchdowns, fans are naturally more upset about the results of those interceptions.

That's part of being a fan, but it doesn't mean Schaub is somehow doomed to be a guy who gives up too many dangerous throws for pick-sixes. Plenty of famous quarterbacks have thrown three pick-sixes (or more!) in a three-week stretch before or during successful careers that included Super Bowl–winning seasons. Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees each had three-game stretches with three or more pick-sixes and then didn't throw another one for a year each. Peyton Manning had such a stretch in 2001, threw one pick-six between 2002 and 2006, did the same thing again in 2008, didn't throw a pick-six in 2009, then threw four of them in two weeks in 2010. He's still doing OK.

In fact, Eli Manning threw three pick-sixes in one game against the Vikings in November 2007 and didn't throw another pick-six until the following campaign. That ugly game also started a dismal run for Eli, one which suggested he might not be ready to play at the high level the Giants envisioned after taking him first overall. Sure enough, Manning was dragged to the playoffs by his team at the end of the season and put together an incredible run there, producing an unlikely Super Bowl win just two and a half months after his three-pick-six day.

That Eli could play so poorly and still get a ring speaks volumes to how useless the "good enough to win the Super Bowl" signifier is. We5 treat it at times as if it's some kind of clear line of demarcation — like you need to be this tall to ride the roller coaster and this good to win the Super Bowl. Recent history should tell us that there's no such clear line.

Pretend, for a moment, that Eli Manning and Joe Flacco had produced the same Week 4 performances this week without any notable run in the playoffs to their name. Would anybody in their right mind look at their days (or 2013 seasons, for that matter) and suggest they were good enough to win the Super Bowl? Of course not! In fact, Giants and Ravens fans would be sitting in the same parking lots saying the same things about how they needed to upgrade at quarterback to have any hope of winning a Super Bowl. Because Manning and Flacco each already won a Lombardi Trophy, we don't think about them in the "not good enough to win a Super Bowl" way, despite what their poor performance would otherwise suggest. Just as they were capable of winning a Super Bowl and are still capable of having bad games, Schaub can have a bad game (or string of games) and still be capable of winning the Super Bowl.

And like any quarterback, he's going to need help from his team, which hasn't offered much: Arian Foster's per-carry numbers are down, as he's averaging 3.8. Andre Johnson got hurt and has missed time over the past few weeks. The team has already been without elite left tackle Duane Brown for the past two games, and star inside linebacker Brian Cushing missed the fourth quarter (when Seattle came back from 20-6 down to tie it up) with a concussion. Remember that Flacco struggled a year ago once his team started losing talented veterans left and right and only really righted the ship once they started making it back onto the field in January.

I feel comfortable saying Schaub is good enough to win a Super Bowl, because I've seen quarterbacks who were worse than him during their season at the helm get hot during the playoffs and win the big trophy. As critical as you are of his throw (and you should be, since it was terrible), there's nothing about it that proves he can't win when it really counts in the longer term. Let T.J. Yates sit on the bench. Schaub should be the guy in Houston. At the very least, when you've got nothing to wear six weeks from now, you're gonna really wish you didn't burn your jersey in the parking lot.


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[Keith]

Originally Posted by WMH

Interesting read from Barnwell:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...broncos-week-4

Great read, level-headed. And I'd agree if this single game existed in a vacuum, but it is just the latest step in a downward spiral.

The concussion point is a good one... a concussion could explain some foggy decision making.

[Joshua]

I guess crazier things have happened but I can't conceive of a scenario where Schaub gets "hot." He doesn't have the arm strength to bomb it, doesn't have the legs to scramble, and doesn't have the testicular fortitude to stand in there when pressure comes. So, how is he going to get "hot" unless hot simply means the team as a whole is playing so well that Schaub simply never has to make a play out of nothing.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Joshua

I guess crazier things have happened but I can't conceive of a scenario where Schaub gets "hot." He doesn't have the arm strength to bomb it, doesn't have the legs to scramble, and doesn't have the testicular fortitude to stand in there when pressure comes. So, how is he going to get "hot" unless hot simply means the team as a whole is playing so well that Schaub simply never has to make a play out of nothing.

I don't know if "hot" would accurately describe him, but he was pretty good in the 2nd half of the San Diego and in OT vs. the Titans.

I believe we are tied to him for '13 and '14, and I am HOPEFUL we will take someone in Round 1 as his replacement.

[popanot]

The article brings up some good points. However, the author focuses way too much on the Schaub's pick-6 history and apparently has not watched very many Texans games over the last couple of years. Maybe he has and has just forgotten what Scahub has become. Of course people are upset about the recent pick-6's, but the author completely ignores the phantom sacks, the lack of zip in his throws, the untimely INTs (the non-pick6 variety), as well as all failures Schaub has had against prime competition when it counts the most.

I'm not even going to bring up Schaub's name in comparison to P. Manning or Brees, but as far as Flacco and Eli go, while those two can play poorly, they can also carry a team (like they have done in the playoffs) and can get hot as hell at times. I don't think Schaub has ever been mistaken for someone that can carry a team. Certainly not now. At this moment, I don't any way in God's creation Schaub is going to win a Super Bowl, whereas, I could see Flacco or Eli winning another one.

[Joshua]

Ironically enough, this is what Bill Simmons (Bill Barnwell's boss at Grantland) had to say about Schaub last Friday when making his pick for the Texans-Seahawks game -- "In case you want to know how Houston's Super Bowl chances are looking right now, a reader named Shyan in London recently sent me an inspired e-mail comparing Matt Schaub to Rudy Gay. Really solid analogy. Because of Schaub, I don't know if Houston has an A-game — it's more of a B-plus-at-best game."

I think that gets it right.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by WMH

I don't know if "hot" would accurately describe him, but he was pretty good in the 2nd half of the San Diego and in OT vs. the Titans.

I believe we are tied to him for '13 and '14, and I am HOPEFUL we will take someone in Round 1 as his replacement.

Sure, he's capable of playing pretty well for a half against OK teams. But "hot" in the playoffs will probably require going and out beating Balt., Denver, Cincy, etc. or some combination thereof for 3 straight weeks (and probably on the road) and then taking on the NFC Champion. Just can't fathom a scenario where he plays lights out for over a month against the best competition in the most pressure filled environment.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Joshua

I guess crazier things have happened but I can't conceive of a scenario where Schaub gets "hot." He doesn't have the arm strength to bomb it, doesn't have the legs to scramble, and doesn't have the testicular fortitude to stand in there when pressure comes. So, how is he going to get "hot" unless hot simply means the team as a whole is playing so well that Schaub simply never has to make a play out of nothing.

I agree with this 100%. You cannot win in the postseason without great QB play. Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are both worse than Matt Schaub on a week to week basis. They turn in more stinkers than any real starting QB. Rothleisberger is no better week to week than Schaub is. But all 3 of those guys have a hot to go with their cold that Schaub doesn't have. Schaub is simply luke warm. And since the middle of last season he is luke warm with no arm. He looks like a pitcher who lost his fastball and occasionally gets taken deep because he is trying to play the same game with a 85 mph fastball. There is no scenario in which he plays out of his mind in the playoffs and we win a superbowl with him. So what are we hanging on a single week more for? I really like Matt Schaub but kudos to the guy who burned his jersey in the parking lot and lets do it 10,000 more times until someone listens.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Keith

It also seems Schaub should be allowed to audible more.

Adam Wexler‏@awexler13m
Kubiak asked if Schaub had freedom to audible out of play called on 3rd & 4 (pick-6). He said no. Once it was called they just go. #Texans

The Texans have been criticized a lot recently for the four-year extension they gave Schaub last year on the eve of the 2012 season opener that totaled $69.7 million. Here's what I found while examining his contract:

The deal averages $15.5 million per year, with a $17.5 million signing bonus. It guarantees Schaub's base salary of $7.25 million this year. Between the signing bonus, this year's base, last year's base and a few workout bonuses, the Texans will have paid Schaub about $29.7 million of that contract by the end of this season.

If they decide Schaub isn't part of their future, they don't have to pay him one cent more. Schaub's 2014, 2015 and 2016 bases aren't guaranteed and in each of those seasons he has a roster bonus that pays him $1 million total if he's active for 16 games. That's $40 million the Texans would not be on the hook for if they didn't want to be.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/pos...-out-this-year

So no more cash... but the dead money on the cap is still something to remember.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Adam Wexler‏@awexler13m
Kubiak asked if Schaub had freedom to audible out of play called on 3rd & 4 (pick-6). He said no. Once it was called they just go. #Texans


http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/pos...-out-this-year

So no more cash... but the dead money on the cap is still something to remember.

So if they cut Schaub then all they have to deal with is the remainder of the prorated bonus being accelerated to this year? So 17.5 over 5 years with 2 years accounted for already leaves %60 of the bonus unaccounted? Or almost $12 million in dead money? Now I am guessing there is a deadline (June 1?) that allows it to be spread over 2 seasons?

If we went much cheaper at QB it would be possible. Any rookie QB or a scrap heap guy (freeman), could be fit under the cap.

[barrett]

And let me just say the woman that ESPN took from the Chronicle is terrible. She is basically a Texans puff piece writer. Not one ounce of football analysis or anything close to critical. I went from checking the ESPN afc south blog everyday and complaining about what Kuharsky wrote to not checking or caring at all.

[chuck]

I get almost all of my Texans news from fan sites like this. Basically if by some miracle someone somewhere writes something about the Texans that isn't completely brain-dead it will get referenced. There is certainly no need to read with regularity the Chronicle or ESPN or any other similar lowest common denominator sort of site.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by barrett

He looks like a pitcher who lost his fastball and occasionally gets taken deep because he is trying to play the same game with a 85 mph fastball.

That's what I've been trying to convey since before the season began. If anyone still has the third game of the pre-season (Saints, IIRC), go back and look at that game and look at Schaub's delivery vs. Yates'. Yates has some zing to his passes I haven't seen from Schaub since mid-season last year. Grantland said his Pick 6 floated for all eternity and that's what too many of his throws have looked like this season, forcing his receivers to win jump balls (hello, Hopkins) or preventing them from getting significant YAC because the defender has time to break on the pass.

Now, if you have the early games from last year (Broncos, Jets), you can see the zing is there. Compare that to his second half of 2012 and this year and it is missing. That's why I believe he has a shoulder problem he has been hiding.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by chuck

I get almost all of my Texans news from fan sites like this. Basically if by some miracle someone somewhere writes something about the Texans that isn't completely brain-dead it will get referenced. There is certainly no need to read with regularity the Chronicle or ESPN or any other similar lowest common denominator sort of site.

Since we're on this subject, where in the world did network execs get the idea that HOF players make good analysts? Some of them have just stepped out of the clubhouse shower, put on a monkey suit and there they are in front of national cameras. You know how they do it...... four ex-jocks dressed in $1000 suits, standing in front the of camera spaced precisely 1 meter apart....eheh....

I'm not a fantasy football player but I swear I get better info listening to the geeky white (and black) guys on the fantasy football shows..... Sure beats listening to Michael Irvin mumble through an analysis....

[HPF Bob]

It's the "jockocracy" Howard Cosell used to rail about - sports color ananlyst is, he says, the one position in life where you can start at the very top of the profession with no qualifications and no training whatsoever other than to be a household name that has retired from the sport they are covering.

If Brett Favre wanted to be an NFL tv analyst, the four networks would be at his door in seconds vying to sign him and they'd put him on their top programs.

Then you toss in the female sideline reporters whose only qualification seems to be their looks and their ability to look firmly into the eyes of a head coach and ask them with a straight face about their feelings. The better ones can actually follow this up with a question about what the coach would like to see the team do better in the second half. I will say that at least the eye candy is better viewing than having Jim Gray or Tony Siragusa asking the same questions.

I still get a laugh out of Troy Aikman spending his first year in the booth with Moose Johnston as a second color analyst as if Aikman need to be protected from any blitzing questions from Joe Buck that might try to sack Troy for a loss.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

It's the "jockocracy" Howard Cosell used to rail about - sports color ananlyst is, he says, the one position in life where you can start at the very top of the profession with no qualifications and no training whatsoever other than to be a household name that has retired from the sport they are covering.

If Brett Favre wanted to be an NFL tv analyst, the four networks would be at his door in seconds vying to sign him and they'd put him on their top programs.

Then you toss in the female sideline reporters whose only qualification seems to be their looks and their ability to look firmly into the eyes of a head coach and ask them with a straight face about their feelings. The better ones can actually follow this up with a question about what the coach would like to see the team do better in the second half. I will say that at least the eye candy is better viewing than having Jim Gray or Tony Siragusa asking the same questions.

I still get a laugh out of Troy Aikman spending his first year in the booth with Moose Johnston as a second color analyst as if Aikman need to be protected from any blitzing questions from Joe Buck that might try to sack Troy for a loss.

I kinda remember this - the Cosell bit. Seemed like he was railing about the Dandy Don's, the OJ Simpson's and the Joe Namath's of the day getting the cushy announcer jobs. Ol' Howard would be rolling in his grave if he could see how prevalent it has become today.....

Aikman, IMO, has gotten pretty good over time. He still has his Captain Obvious moments, though. Not quite sure he deserves to be on the "A-team" for FOX but he is.

While some of the jocks are pretty good or at least have "personality", there are others who don't have much going for them - great athletes in their day but not the best announcers/analysts...

[Nconroe]

So, just wondering, since most of discussion has been about Schaub,

If Kubiak went but Schaub stayed, would Schaub improve suffeciently, say he had a Fox for his coach?

or even other way around, if Schaub left, would Kubiak get better - for instance if he had a Wilson or Luck as his new QB?

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

So, just wondering, since most of discussion has been about Schaub,

If Kubiak went but Schaub stayed, would Schaub improve suffeciently, say he had a Fox for his coach?

or even other way around, if Schaub left, would Kubiak get better - for instance if he had a Wilson or Luck as his new QB?

I don't think Kubiak adjusts his offense much based on who his QB is. He is a WCO disciple and doesn't really stray much from it. He might put in more bootleg runs if he had a "running QB" like he had with Jake Plummer. In some ways, it's a testament to the WCO that the system still gets results when everyone knows what's coming.

If Kubiak was fired and Schaub had another coach calling plays, it would probably break a lot of tendencies but I doubt Schaub improves in a different offensive system.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by barrett

If we went much cheaper at QB it would be possible. Any rookie QB or a scrap heap guy (freeman), could be fit under the cap.

I'd be very curious what the 0-4 New York Giants would take in trade for Ryan Nassib. A 'top ranked' prospect to back up Eli Manning isn't expected to see the field anytime soon. So, I would think they merely drafted him to eventually trade him anyway. Cosell and Gruden like him too.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100...eg-cosell-says

AND

http://www.syracuse.com/axeman/index...an_nassib.html

[popanot]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I'd be very curious what the 0-4 New York Giants would take in trade for Ryan Nassib. A 'top ranked' prospect to back up Eli Manning isn't expected to see the field anytime soon. So, I would think they merely drafted him to eventually trade him anyway. Cosell and Gruden like him too.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100...eg-cosell-says

AND

http://www.syracuse.com/axeman/index...an_nassib.html

I'd send a #2 and Yates to WASH in a heartbeat for Cousins. Might even consider a #1. I think he'd be a perfect for Kubiak's system and I think he'd be a safer bet than any of the 2014 rookies coming in.

But yeah, Nassib's worth a look and maybe even Dysert as long as you can get them on the cheap. Crap, I'm almost thinking Weeden is worth a look for the short-term. Yikes!