The J.J. Watt Conundrum

[HPF Bob]

How did the group that whiffed on Amobi Okoye and Louis Nix get J.J. Watt so right in 2011 with the #11 overall pick?

One of those random thoughts that pop up while in the shower. While he did not win the MVP last season, he was arguably the best player in the NFL last year and we didn't have to trade up or sell the farm to get him.

If you look at the 2011 draft, the first 10 picks, other than the QBs, weren't all that bad:

1. Cam Newton QB
2. Von Miller OLB
3. Marcel Dareus, DT
4. A.J. Green, WR
5. Patrick Peterson, CB-KR
6. Julio Jones, WR
7. Aldon Smith, DE
8. Jake Locker, QB
9. Tyron Smith, OL
10. Blaine Gabbert, QB

Other than Locker and Gabbert, you can't say any were busts. If the 9ers had no idea Smith was bipolar, that could be excused as well.

The talk in Houston that spring was drafting Robert Quinn whom the Rams took a couple of picks later and hasn't played poorly.

So were the Texans' FO "blind squirrels" that year or did they have some real insight on how great Watt could be?

[chuck]

How could anyone possibly know that JJ Watt would work himself into being the best player in the league? Even a competent front office could not have chosen Watt imagining that outcome.

[Warren]

Rick Smith has said that they had a deal in place with the 49ers to move up to #7 if Patrick Peterson slipped that far. So obviously they wanted Peterson more. They clearly liked JJ and maybe they saw some things in him that other teams didn't, but if they had strong feelings that he'd become the player that he has they would've been trying to trade up to get him.

[popanot]

I'm inclined to give Smith and company credit for identifying and drafting JJ, but then I look at the rest of the 2011 draft and think they merely lucked out and caught lightning in a bottle.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/texans

[WMH]

Originally Posted by popanot

I'm inclined to give Smith and company credit for identifying and drafting JJ, but then I look at the rest of the 2011 draft and think they merely lucked out and caught lightning in a bottle.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/texans

3 starters out of the '11 draft. That's not too shabby in my eyes.

ESPN had an article about how well the Texans have drafted. Most of us will roll the eyes and disagree, but stats are stats.
http://espn.go.com/blog/houston-texa...for-most-teams

"With the help of ESPN Stats & Info, our Kevin Seifert examined how many players on each team's roster were drafted by that team. Only five teams have more -- the Bengals, Packers, Vikings, Patriots and 49ers. Twenty-eight members of the Texans' roster were drafted by the team."

I'm of the opinion that all GM's are blind squirrels to some degree, as is everyone that is in a hiring position. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. It happens. With the amount of time, effort, and money they put into this stuff you'd think they'd be more accurate, but none of them are. More hits than misses is the key to keeping your job as a GM.

Or, in Smith's case, having some sort of dirty laundry on the McNair's.......

[barrett]

It's not the same group as Nix and Okoye. Wade Phillips was on board for Watt, along with dozens of other coaching/FO changes. The only constant is Smith. The draft is clearly a group process in Houston and 3 different groups drafted those 3 players. And though nobody realistically thought they were drafting the best defensive player of a generation, everyone involved gets a ton of credit.

And even though nobody could have predicted it at draft time, Wade did say JJ was going to the HOF after his 5 sack rookie year. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...ed-for-canton/

Wade is clearly a guy who knows NFL defense.

[HPF Bob]

I couldn't recall if Wade Phillips was here for the 2011 draft so I stayed clear of the subject. Different d-coords in those three examples, true. I don't want to call Clowney a bust but I wonder if that will someday be looked upon like the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell if he fails to produce.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by WMH

3 starters out of the '11 draft. That's not too shabby in my eyes.

Well, they ended up with two impact players which is the only time that has happened since 2006 so one does have reason to celebrate.

But in general looking over the team's draft history depresses me profoundly and I always end up wondering how they have ever had a winning season.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

I couldn't recall if Wade Phillips was here for the 2011 draft so I stayed clear of the subject. Different d-coords in those three examples, true. I don't want to call Clowney a bust but I wonder if that will someday be looked upon like the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell if he fails to produce.

I don't think so. JaMarcus Russell turned out to be a slacker. If Clowney fails to live up to his selection, it will be because the injuries and repairs got the best of him.....

[Nconroe]

Originally Posted by WMH

3 starters out of the '11 draft. That's not too shabby in my eyes.

ESPN had an article about how well the Texans have drafted. Most of us will roll the eyes and disagree, but stats are stats.
http://espn.go.com/blog/houston-texa...for-most-teams

"With the help of ESPN Stats & Info, our Kevin Seifert examined how many players on each team's roster were drafted by that team. Only five teams have more -- the Bengals, Packers, Vikings, Patriots and 49ers. Twenty-eight members of the Texans' roster were drafted by the team."

I'm of the opinion that all GM's are blind squirrels to some degree, as is everyone that is in a hiring position. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. It happens. With the amount of time, effort, and money they put into this stuff you'd think they'd be more accurate, but none of them are. More hits than misses is the key to keeping your job as a GM.

Or, in Smith's case, having some sort of dirty laundry on the McNair's.......

I agree, we are building our team thru draft better than most teams. Which means most teams draft even worse than texans.