Official Texans @ Jaguars Game Thread, 12/7/2014

[Arky]

The 6-6 Texans travel to Jacksonville to play the 2-10 Jaguars in an early game this Sunday. The Texans are fresh off a 45-21 home win over the Titans while the Jaguars are coming off a 25-24 come-from-behind win over the NY Giants. This should be a taking-care-of-business game for the Texans but you never know....the Jags always give the Texans a fight.

TV = CBS (channel 11 local), noon Sunday, CST

Announcers = Brian Anderson, Adam Archuleta

The line = Texans by 5 to 6 (one of the faster risers this week with 93% of the money coming in on the Texans)

----------------------------------------------------

Other Sunday viewing in the Houston area:

FOX (early) = Indianapolis @ Cleveland -- Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch

FOX (late) = Seattle @ Philadelphia -- Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

----------------------------------------------------

Prime time:

TNF = Dallas @ Chicago (NFLN)

SNF = New England @ San Diego (NBC)

MNF = Atlanta @ Green Bay (ESPN)

-----------------------------------------------------

Bye weeks are over so 16 games/wk for the rest of the year.....

[Keith]

The Texans are actually in a decent situation with four games to play, two of them against the Jaguars. Momentum riding high.

But this is a trap game if they aren't careful. Can't look ahead to the Colts game. Can't go up 14-0 early and expect to coast.

With a little help, the Texans can finish 3-1, with two of those wins coming over the Jaguars, and have a reasonable shot at the final wild card spot. But this is a .500 team for good reason. Generally though, they've beaten the lesser teams, so as long as they avoid the trap, this should be a win.

[Arky]

The line has moved up to Texans favored by 6.5 to 7. That means most of the action is coming in on the Texans. Walterfootball has it as 88%.

Walt brings up a couple of interesting trends when the betting gets lopsided like this:

85-15 RULE:

Teams getting 80-84 percent of the action, past two seasons: 24-16-1 ATS.
Teams getting 85-plus percent of the action, past two seasons: 10-23-1 ATS.

(The Broncos are 3-1 ATS when getting 85 percent or more, so if you exclude them, this dynamic is 7-22-1 ATS in the past two seasons.)

And then, further along in the Texans vs. Jags matchup, there's this:

RECAP: I'm not betting this game. The Texans could easily dominate - again, Watt versus a terrible quarterback has been money this year - but going against the 85-15 Rule is not something I want to be a part of, even though the public is a ridiculous 9-1 when fading the Jaguars at 75-plus percent. I also think this spread is pretty fairly priced, as I had it at Texans -5.

Gun to my head, I'm still taking the Texans, but not with any sort of conviction.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is an 85-15 game. However, the Jaguars are the only team that seldom covers in this situation.

So, all this to say, the trends show when there is heavy betting of the public at over an 85% clip, that favorite seldom covers against the spread. Unless it's the Jags......

So, who's the right side? Dunno, but don't be surprised if it's a closer game than expected....

[Arky]

And here we go.....

Jags win the toss and defer. Texans to receive.

---------------------------------------

Kickoff goes out of the end zone, touchback. Texans will have the ball at their 20.

---------------------------------------

Foster goes right side for about 15 but holding on Fido brings it back. -10 yards makes it 1st and 20.

Foster for about 6. Brings up 2nd and 14.

Foster for about 8. 3rd and 6 coming up.

Fitz can't find a receiver and scrambles for 2. Texans will have to punt.

Jags fair catch the punt at their 27 yard line. Jag's ball.

[Arky]

Pass to Shorts too low, inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Pass to Shorts goes inc but holding on the Texans gives an auto 1st down at the 33 yard line.

Pass to Shorts gets 6.

Bortles keeps and runs for 9 yards. Ball at the Jag 46.

Robinson for 3.

Pass to Hurns gets 5. 3rd and 2 coming up.

Timeout Texans. 10:04 left in the 1st qtr.

-----------------------------------------------

On 3rd down, pass is deflected by Brooks Reed, inc. Jags going for it on 4th and 2......

Jags bluff, delay of game. Jags will punt.

K Martin fair catches the punt at the Texan 15. Texan's ball.

[Arky]

Pass to Hopkins goes for 10 and a 1st down.

Fitz trips handing off, loss of 4.

Foster for loss of 1. Brings up 3rd and 15.

Screen to AJ loses 5. Texans will punt on 4th and 20.

Punt is downed at the Jags 49 yard line. Jag's ball.

------------------------------------------

Jets 9, Vikings 7

Panthers 10, Saints 0

Dolphins 3, Ravens 0

[Arky]

Bortles rolls out and throws inc.

Robinson gets 3. Brings up 3rd and 7.

Pass to Lee goes for 26 yards. 1st down at the Texan 32.

Gerhart for 4.

Pass to Shorts too long, inc but offsides on Watt = 5 yards. Makes it 2nd and 1.

Robinson goes left side for 16 yards. 1st and goal Jags at the 7 yard line.

Gerhart goes left for about 3.

Pass to Hurns in the end zone is complete for the TD.

Jags 7, Texans 0

3:39 left in the 1st qtr.

[Arky]

D Johnson brings the ensuing kickoff back to the Texan 21 yard line. Texan's ball.

---------------------------------------

Foster gets loose for big gainer! 51 yards! Ball at the Jag 29.

Screen pass to AJ goes for -1. 2nd and 11 coming up.

Foster goes for almost 5. 3rd and 7 coming up.

Pass to Foster broken up, inc. Texans will go for the FG.

Bullock's 44-yarder is good.

Jags 7, Texans 3

1:22 left in the 1st qtr.

[Big Texas]

We are seeing the other side of Fitz. Side note: can Andre no longer be relied on to beat his man in a route downfield?

[Arky]

Giants 10, Titans 0

Lions 7, Bucs 0

------------------------------------

Jags down the ensuing kickoff in the end zone, touchback. Jag's ball at their 20.

-------------------------------------

Bortles pass to high for Shorts, inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Robinson for 3. Brings up 3rd and 7.

Bortles goes on the move but Mercilus catches him. 5 yard gain. Jags will punt.

Martin gets a decent return on the punt. Texan's ball at their 48.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Big Texas

We are seeing the other side of Fitz. Side note: can Andre no longer be relied on to beat his man in a route downfield?

I don't know but I'm really tired of that screen to AJ..... it's soooo 2006.....

[Arky]

That's better. Fitz hits AJ over the middle for 19.

Foster goes for 19. Ball at the Jag 14.

Foster for 1. 2nd and 9 coming up.

Short pass to AJ gets about 4. 3rd and 5 coming up.

AJ hit hard at the 3 yard line and fumbles.....ruling on the field is inc pass. Flag on the Jags for the illegal hit on a defenseless receiver. Makes it 1st and goal at the 4 yard line.

Foster for no gain.

Fitz scrambles right side for the TD!

Texans 10, Jags 7

11:45 left in the half.

[Nconroe]

On the unnecessary roughness call on Swearinger, on replay, looked to me like Swearinger pulled off enough so about all that hit the receiver was his legs?

I guess AJ has lost a step or half step, but he's still pretty good.

[Arky]

Jags bring the ensuing kickoff back to their 25. Jag's ball.

------------------------------------

Robinson goes for 5.

Watt with the sack! Loss of 7.

Watt offsides. Makes it 3rd and 8 coming up.

Gerhart goes for 9 and the 1st down.

Texans use timeout with 9:52 left in the half.

Pass to Shorts almost INT'ed but inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Todman gets about 4. Brings up 3rd and 6.

Pass to Lewis goes for 20. Ball at the Texan 40.

Gerhart for 1. 2nd and 9 coming up.

Deep pass to Harper is dropped but they get Swearinger for hitting the defenseless receiver. Makes it 1st down at the Texan 25.

Robinson for 2. 2nd and 8 coming up.

Pass to Lee gets 7. 3rd and 1 coming up.

Bortles sneaks but comes up short. Makes it 4th and inches..... Timeout with 5:56 left in the half.

---------------------------------

Jags going for the FG. Scobee's 33-yarder is good.

Texans 10, Jags 10

5:53 left in the half.

[Arky]

D Johnson brings the ensuing kickoff back to the Texan 16. Texan's ball.

--------------------------------

Blue for about 2.

Pass to K Martin off the mark, inc. Brings up 3rd and 8.

Fitz deep pass over everyone, inc. Texans will have to punt.

Jags bring the punt back to their 30 but flag is down..... 2 penalties on the Jags, holding penalty is accepted. Places the ball at the Jag 14.

[Arky]

Bengal 14, Steelers 7

Giants 17, Titans 0

Rams 6, Redskins 0

Panthers 17, Saints 3

Browns 7, Colts 0

-----------------------------------

Pass to Lee gets 5.

Pass to Lee gets about 6 and the 1st down.

Pass to Robinson is dropped, inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Watt calls a timeout with 3:39 left in the half.

Deep pass to Lee is complete for big gainer. 31 yards.

Pass to Shorts loses 3. 2nd and 13 coming up.

Pass to Lewis gets about 15 and the 1st down at the Texan 33.

Robinson for 2.

2 minute warning.

-------------------------------------------

[nunusguy]

I gotta say so far I'm impressed with Bortles. He's more agile, nimble that what few times I saw him in college and he's made some throws, though he's probably lucky he's not been picked atleast once today.

[Arky]

On 2nd and 9, pass to Robinson off the mark, inc. Brings up 3rd and 9.

Screen to Gerhart goes for the 1st down at the Texan 19.

Pass to Hurns too low, inc.

Pass to Lee off the mark, inc. 3rd and 10 coming up with 1:15 left in the half.

Pass is batted down by Watt, inc. Jags will go for the FG.

Scobee's 37-yarder is good.

Jags 13, Texans 10

1:09 left in the half.

[Keith]

Offense totally out of sync without Andre, even as a decoy. Hurts not having Posey active. Keyshawn and Demaris are not effective receivers. Really need to find a slot WR in the draft next year.

Arian having a great half, but they haven't gone to him as much since a hot start.

Really blitzing a lot on D. Not really sure this is necessary. Getting outcoached on D as Jags ready for it scheme-wise.

[Arky]

Texans down the ensuing kickoff in the end zone, touchback. Texan's ball at their 20.

------------------------------------

Fitz can't find a receiver and scrambles for 7.

Foster for no gain. 3rd and 3 coming up.

Fitz's pass almost picked but inc. Texans will have to punt with 47 seconds left in the half.

Jags bring the punt back to their 30. Jag's ball.