3 picks and oh how the 3-4 is shaping up...

[painekiller]

This time yesterday had me miffed to put it lightly. Rick Smith had been scooped on the player he wanted by the 49ers, and he had no solid backup plan. He picked the safest guy available on his board. JJ Watts.

Now I have watched Watts play at least 6 games last season. I wanted to watch the RB who I had thought was a good fit for what I thought was a big need on the Texans (he wasn't). I keep watching this DE that just was a beast, who keep making plays all over the field. A stud. JJ Watt.

Flash forward to January, In one of my mocks, I took Watt with my 1st round pick. But after really looking hard at this I concluded, DE was not our biggest need, A need, but not a starting player need, so a luxury when we needed OLBs and DBs that could start. So Watt kinda fell off my radar. I always figure he was a solid player, the best true 5 tech in the draft, but not the Texans 1st choice for round 1.

Well they took him. And after spending a night thinking about it, i have really come to a happy place.

Think of the options that Watt give the Texans. Not only does he give them depth so Mario and Antonio can stay fresh, but think of the possibilities he allows a creative Wade to implement. I can see the Texans copying the Steelers defense, having Watt, Mario, Antonio in the game together. Watt has the ability to drop, Mario has the ability to drop, Antonio well not so much.

Third down we can have a 4 man front of Mario, JJ, Antonio, and Connor, with Reed and Cushing at LBs with some nickle package. Who is rushing and who is covering? Barwin could drop, and Reed come in with an overload on the strong side. Or the opposite side can do something. Or the middle guys. That would start to confuse the opposing OL and the QB. The mismatches that can be created are huge.

The 3 guys added so far all have high motors, they all work super hard, all have high football IQ. Things that have not been a driving factor in the past.

We now have high motor guys to add to the likes of Ryans, Cushing, and Smith.

With the 3 new guys we are going to be adding Barwin, and Ryans back to the mix. That is 5 guys should be getting a lot of the reps that are new or added back to the mix.

And we still have 4 more picks and free agency. As long as the lock out is over next week, this team really does have a chance to be a play off team.

Our early schedule is brutal, but our last half is kinda cream puff. Add in the fact that two teams in our division now could be starting rookies QBs....

How much will it take to make this defense presentable? A solid run defense to start, we now have better tools in place for that. A more consistent pressure and varied pass rush plan, I see the making of that now. A real NFL quality pass defensive scheme, time will tell us if that is now here.

But look at the secondary. I like Harris, had him as the 4th best CB in this draft. He has upside on paper. And I believe we still look for a FA CB. Say we sign a veteran FA like Ike Taylor, and resign Jason Allen. Then our backfield could look like this: Jackson, Taylor as starting CBs, Harris as the nickle, McCain as the dime. Quin at one safety and Nolan or how about Jason Allen at the other safety (he has played some safety iirc)? Isn't that a better backfield than we had last season? At least in the pass coverage department? Last year our SS lead our team in tackles, this season by design if the safeties are making plays in the run game, something is very wrong (not that they will not make any plays but they should not be the primary run stoppers).

I can really see Mario having a big year, Barwin having a solid year (if healthy), Cushing rebounding, Reed making an impact. Wow!!!

OK so I have again sipped the tea. Finally after an uneventful ending to last season where we keep a losing coach, have not been active in bringing in new talent, and only having had one solid signing, Wade Phillips.

What do you guys see as some of the mismatches we can create?

[Arky]

I see the secondary shaping up pretty much like you suggest. I do believe they'll pick up a player or two in free agency (CB + S) and took Brandon Harris anyway as a good, young developemental talent - no way he's starts after last year's failed experiment. More picks coming today.....I think they (Texan braintrust) have to operate as though whenever free agency comes along, there might be a mad scramble where it's possible that they could end up out in the cold... There will be more picks coming today and I think you will see a serviceable defense that could possibly operate quite well without the benefit of free agency....

There's also (insert doomsday music) "gel time". Hate to say it but it's gonna take a whole lotta repitition/practice/live action before all the old parts and new parts work together as a team in this new 3-4..... It won't be fast enough for some people but hey, thems the breaks. If the Oilers taught me one thing, it is how to be patient..... 9, 10, 12 years? Pffft, no problem. Especially over things I have no control over...

One last thing... I'm really tired and annoyed of reading of the Watt pick as a "safe" pick. What exactly does that mean? What makes it "safe"? Safe as in "not going to bust"? Or safe as in "you-messed-up-my-mock-draft-you-spineless-weasels"? Why not call it a "good" pick? A "solid" pick? Much better terms, IMO....

[TheMatrix31]

I'm pretty optimistic. I don't know much about college football but these guys seem like the balls-to-the-wall players we need so badly.

Keep adding, Wade. Keep adding.

[Keith]

Thanks pk for writing up the front page of the site, albeit unknowingly...

http://www.inthebullseye.com/archive/2011/20110429.html

[popanot]

Nice write up, PK. Now you can tell Keith were to mail the check!

As for the draft, I'm of a better mind today with what they did in Rd2. I agree that Watt gives them all kinds of flexibility on the DL and scheme wise. And if Reed can be that edge guy, they should be much improved. However, I just can't put any trust that we'll anything from Barwin, and I just hope we can find someone, whether it's Watt, Okoye, or Mitchell, who can consistently bottle up the middle.

They've definitely improved the D on paper, but still have a lot work to do to make it reality on the field.

[HPF Bob]

I still don't see Mario as a 3-4 fit and neither does ND Kalu. He thinks Mario might be traded or he might choose to leave in free agency at the end of the season.

Of course, there is such a thing as franchising a player so I don't take the free agency threat seriously (yet) but, according to Kalu, Mario isn't happy with the 3-4 concept despite Wade's attempts to sell him on it.

With Watt and Reed, we now have a lot of positions with either depth or mismatches, depending on how you see it. Where do you put Okoye, Smith, Watt, Mario and Mitchell up front? Where do you put Ryans, Cushing, Barwin and Reed? The concept is to have a lot of moving parts but it can also mean guys playing out of position who aren't sure of their responsibilities or don't have the skill set to make it work.

And if the lockout drags on and these guys don't get the chance to practice the new defense together - whooo doggie the stench from Reliant Park will be tremendous.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

I still don't see Mario as a 3-4 fit and neither does ND Kalu. He thinks Mario might be traded or he might choose to leave in free agency at the end of the season.

Are you perhaps an Elvis fan, and I'm not talking about the one buried in Memphis ?
Denver is transitioning to the 4-3 while we're transfering from the 4-3 to the 3-4. What timing and what an opportunity ?

[Nconroe]

Yeah, I like all three picks so far, like Watts the best after sleeping on it.

I suppose we have a DT/NT concern for 1 or A gap by some, so perhaps we will see that added yet in the draft or during FA signings, whenever that is.

I have heard ND say good things about 3-4 and how Mario fits , so perhaps depends when you are listening. Whenever there are changes, takes an adjustment period. Mario will be greater than ever in 3-4 is my estimate, fwiw.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Arky

One last thing... I'm really tired and annoyed of reading of the Watt pick as a "safe" pick. What exactly does that mean? What makes it "safe"? Safe as in "not going to bust"? Or safe as in "you-messed-up-my-mock-draft-you-spineless-weasels"? Why not call it a "good" pick? A "solid" pick? Much better terms, IMO....

Safe as in not a very high chance of being a bust, or having a medical issue, or an off the field issue.

Quin has the looming brain tumor that could recur, no doctor will say he is not going to have a relapse.

Prince is a CB and we saw last year that having a rookie CB is painful in the best of cases, and they need to win now, not in 3 years.

I hope that clears up my calling Watt the safe pick. Watt is a high character guy with a high motor, he is a leader, he is a play maker and he tested off the chart. But he plays a position, 3-4 DE, that is not as highly valued as the OLB and CB, plus we already have two guys manning both starting DE spots, we don't have starters at both OLB spots and if they really moving Quin to safety then we do not appear to have the two starters at CB. So yes IMO Watt was a luxury pick, a very nice luxury that should help the team, but still a luxury.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Safe as in not a very high chance of being a bust, or having a medical issue, or an off the field issue.

Quin has the looming brain tumor that could recur, no doctor will say he is not going to have a relapse.

Prince is a CB and we saw last year that having a rookie CB is painful in the best of cases, and they need to win now, not in 3 years.

I hope that clears up my calling Watt the safe pick. Watt is a high character guy with a high motor, he is a leader, he is a play maker and he tested off the chart. But he plays a position, 3-4 DE, that is not as highly valued as the OLB and CB, plus we already have two guys manning both starting DE spots, we don't have starters at both OLB spots and if they really moving Quin to safety then we do not appear to have the two starters at CB. So yes IMO Watt was a luxury pick, a very nice luxury that should help the team, but still a luxury.

OK, I see.

I just have seen the term "safe pick" being slung around in a not so flattering way (conservative, boring) from other, uh, critics - used sort of condescendingly from those who have lost faith in the front office. And I'm not totally there, yet...

Hopefully, JJ Watt will turn into the "best" pick or a "great" pick. We shall see..

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by painekiller

The 3 guys added so far all have high motors, they all work super hard, all have high football IQ. Things that have not been a driving factor in the past.

That's actually why I was elated that Aldon Smith got drafted by the 49ers. I was so sure that he was a Rick Smith pick and I was not crazy about him because I felt he was all athleticism with no awareness, intelligence or effort. I would've definitely preferred Cameron Jordan to Watt, but I think Watt will be a solid, if not spectacular player for 8-10 years, so I can't complain too heartily. And I think Brooks Reed, our 2nd round pick, is much more likely to be successful than Aldon Smith.

[Joe Joe]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Our early schedule is brutal, but our last half is kinda cream puff. Add in the fact that two teams in our division now could be starting rookies QBs....

The Texans could get lucky and have the first few games cancelled.

[Joe Joe]

It looks like the Texans may have 4 players with 5 or more sacks next season after having just one this past season. They do need to add a vet CB, still.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by dadmg

That's actually why I was elated that Aldon Smith got drafted by the 49ers. I was so sure that he was a Rick Smith pick and I was not crazy about him because I felt he was all athleticism with no awareness, intelligence or effort. I would've definitely preferred Cameron Jordan to Watt, but I think Watt will be a solid, if not spectacular player for 8-10 years, so I can't complain too heartily. And I think Brooks Reed, our 2nd round pick, is much more likely to be successful than Aldon Smith.

I completely agree with you. I was elated when he was taken by the 49ers.

[Nconroe]

Looks like Texans being recognized by some as having an A draft grade this year. hope this turns into what we see this year and into future

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/s...earn-top-marks

Houston Texans

Best pick: Second-round pick Brooks Reed fits in their 3-4. I think he can be a lot like Clay Matthews of the Packers.

Questionable move: Picking J.J. Watt in the first round instead of Prince Amukumara, but that's being nitpicky, especially since they later landed two corners.

Third-day gem: QB T.J. Yates. Matt Schaub is their quarterback, but this is nice developmental pick.

Analysis: They were dreadful on defense last season, but their top four picks should help change that. The first three all could be starters as rookies. Wade Phillips had to be happy. The Texans had a good draft.

Grade: A

[Joe Joe]

At the recap of the draft by Kubiak and "pay Me" Rick, Kubiak talked about the flexibility of Mario. Mario at OLB would give the Texans more depth there as well as maybe being able to keep another DE.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Joe Joe

At the recap of the draft by Kubiak and "pay Me" Rick, Kubiak talked about the flexibility of Mario. Mario at OLB would give the Texans more depth there as well as maybe being able to keep another DE.

I saw that. His statement was the 1st confirmation that Mario can be used up or down. The drafting of Watt makes that possible. Mario can have a huge year if he embraces the concepts that they going to use. So far I am hearing that Mario is bitching about the conversion. My nephew has talked to Mario in a bar and he is truly not happy about it.

The sooner they can resolve the lockout the better. Getting Mario in to work with Wade can only help.

[HPF Bob]

I see Mario as being similar to the late Reggie White. His chief asset is his quickness for a man his size. Putting him as an OLB in a 3-4 means overpowering smaller, quicker people and playing in space. Yes, he can win some mismatches from there but he's also going to get embarrassed out there because there will be some matchups where he'll be outquicked. I can understand his misgivings. I don't want to say it can't work but I do have doubts the transition will go as well as the braintrust thinks it will.

[Joe Joe]

I was watching the LB's coach talk about Reed on the Texans Website. He reminds me of the character Maurice Minnifield on Northern Exposure. Love the fire, but hope it isn't false bravado.

[barrett]

Nobody plays an exclusive 34 or 43. On 3rd down they all look very similar. I bet mario is playing in the same position as a 43 DE on many 3rd down passing situations. It really isn't as big of a difference unless they plan to use him inside the OT on every snap. I am betting they don't. Especially since Wade has coached a 43, and he has coached a 34 where his DE was a better pass rusher than his OLB. I am guessing that priority one will be how to get Mario Williams into the best possible position to rush the passer. Watt and Reed can only help make that easier.