Owen Daniels Contract Negotiations

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

Denver is not Houston and the offenses are not identical. Certainly not in how we run them. The rushing stats bear that out.

Of course they are not 'identical', but there is not a better comparison in the league than in the offensive system Denver ran, at least through the recent years when the current Texans head coach was Denver's offensive coordinator. Not to mention the Texans now have Denver's rushing guru, Alex Gibbs, as well. And please, let me stop there in the comparisons between Denver and Denver South or I'll be here all afternoon...

Originally Posted by barrett

Our offense is far more TE friendly than Denver's, perhaps by subtle differences in design, but certainly due to Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub.

Johnson is constantly bracketed with a safety which means our TEs are constantly working in space against LBs. There is no parallel to AJ in the Denver offense, so their TEs don't have the space or success ours have.

Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey were pretty effective in the offense. Squint a little and you might see some resemblences to Dre and Kevin Walter.

Originally Posted by barrett

Additionally Schaub is characterized by mediocre arm strength, good accuracy, and getting the ball out quickly. All of these factors lend themselves to the TE getting the ball. Cutler (and even Plummer before him), are total opposites.

I'm trying not to include the Cutler years as much since he joined after Kubiak hired with the Texans. But the Broncos did employ Brian Griese for several years during that time span under Kubiak. Mediocre table for one? Yes, please.

Originally Posted by barrett

It is not relevant what Denver TEs do when deciding how hard it is/how much talent is needed for a Houston TE to succeed. I think Daniels is a smart and tough player who is in a perfect fit to make him look far better than he is. Not to mention that even with the good stats he was ineffective in the red zone last year, fumbled too much, and is not a great blocker. He is one of my favorite Texans, but he is nowhere near a top NFL TE.

The Denver comparisons may or may not be relevant, but they offer a window into an alternate view of this offense. Until the day comes when there is no Daniels running routes for the team, evaluating his real effectiveness is a healthy bit of speculation on everyone's behalf, yours and mine both (and Owen's and Rick Smith's...).

It's just the idea of "fit" here that can be frustrating. Of course he is a fit, as Casey and Dreesen might be... they were added to the roster because of the expectations of their fit with the offense. Take a "better" TE like Winslow or Gates or Clark or Cooley or whoever you think is better... would those guys be that much more effective than Daniels in this system? Marginally, maybe, but it's speculation either way, so all we have to go on is what Daniels actually produced, which by his third season has been Pro Bowl-quality receiving stats.

btw, I realize Owen had a few dropsies in 2007, but Daniels had one fumble lost last year, the same as Winslow, Gates and Clark, and one less than Cooley. His new contract would pay him for production in 2009 and beyond mostly based on his 2008 performance and the potential he has based on that.

[barrett]

Keith, I agree with a lot of this. It definitely is speculation what anyone would do. I also agree that statistically we may not get much more out of any other top TE. The only thing I disagree on is that we won't get much less from any other TE not making top money.

I feel like Daniels is a very smart player who takes advantage of LB coverage and picks up lots of catches and first downs in the middle of the field. This is an important contribution and helped make our offense what it was. But when things tightened up on the goalline, he did not have the ability to either create space, or take the ball from the defender.

To me this is what the top 2-3 TEs are paid for. You have a bunch of guys paid similarly who can block a little and catch the football. Daniels should be paid at the top end of that range. Then you have a few guys paid a premium because they make their living catching TDs. Daniels cannot reasonably ask for premium money until he shows he is a redzone threat.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by barrett

I feel like Daniels is a very smart player who takes advantage of LB coverage and picks up lots of catches and first downs in the middle of the field. This is an important contribution and helped make our offense what it was. But when things tightened up on the goalline, he did not have the ability to either create space, or take the ball from the defender.

To me this is what the top 2-3 TEs are paid for. You have a bunch of guys paid similarly who can block a little and catch the football. Daniels should be paid at the top end of that range. Then you have a few guys paid a premium because they make their living catching TDs. Daniels cannot reasonably ask for premium money until he shows he is a redzone threat.

This is more of a general complaint than anything else...and more of an observation really. It's so hard to judge a players effectiveness in a certain situation as a fan because we have no way of knowing how the coaches are using them. Sure, Kubes might call for a pass near the goal line, but Daniels could be the third or fourth option on many of those plays.

I think the goal line problems start and stop with the inability to run the ball in that area of the field. Plain and simple teams weren't scared of our short yardage running game and that lets them get into pass coverage sooner. When your on a short field like that there is much less ground for the defense to cover making it easier to clog up the throwing lanes. Remember none of our WR's were very effective in redzone situations either, including AJ...if they were then we wouldn't have been third in offense, but 17th in scoring (well that plus turnovers). Scoring in the redzone was a team problem.

I haven't watched all the film to say one way or the other whether or not Owen was getting open in those situations so I can't comment on that. I'm just saying that it was a problem for our whole team and without knowing the specifics of the play calls it's hard to say one way or the other if OD was the one failing to get it done. I do know that the redzone is usually a good time to use the TE, and I've wondered why we don't use them more in that situation. Owen could definitely be part of the problem, but I think it's something that goes deeper than just one guy.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by papabear

I'm just saying that it was a problem for our whole team and without knowing the specifics of the play calls it's hard to say one way or the other if OD was the one failing to get it done.

Actually, we can say OD is not getting it done. Maybe he doesn't get the opportunities, maybe it's not his fault, but we're not talking about who is to blame for our redzone struggles. We are talking about the fact that you get paid for performance, and OD did not perform in the redzone (even if it wasn't his fault).

Originally Posted by papabear

I do know that the redzone is usually a good time to use the TE, and I've wondered why we don't use them more in that situation. Owen could definitely be part of the problem, but I think it's something that goes deeper than just one guy.

I do agree that we can't blame it all on him, as it is definitely a whole team problem. But he is clearly not part of the solution. So, I just don't think we need to pay him like he's a redzone solution.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by barrett

Actually, we can say OD is not getting it done. Maybe he doesn't get the opportunities, maybe it's not his fault, but we're not talking about who is to blame for our redzone struggles. We are talking about the fact that you get paid for performance, and OD did not perform in the redzone (even if it wasn't his fault).

Fair enough in regards to pay. I don't think that will hold much weight at the bargaining table because his overall numbers were so good. You do have a point though.

I do agree that we can't blame it all on him, as it is definitely a whole team problem. But he is clearly not part of the solution. So, I just don't think we need to pay him like he's a redzone solution.

I don't think he's being asked to be paid as a red zone solution. He's asked to be paid comparable to what other top TE's are earning. He's clearly has the stats to make that claim even without the big TD numbers.

I think the solution is the running game. I think one area where you can lay some of the blame on Owen is the running game. The TE can be crucial to the running game and blocking isn't his best attribute. I think he's gotten MUCH better in that area, but he will likely never be a dominant run blocker. In that sense Owen is part of the problem...although I would put more of the blame on the interior of the line with Myers and Briesel IMO.

speaking of, I've got really high hopes for Caldwell. I think he's got a chance to give us a little more meat in the short yardage game, while still being able to handle the zone scheme.

I just have a hard time believing that Owen can be a top 5 (top 10 if that makes you happier) TE in the league for over 80 yards, but be a waste of space in the last 20. I would hate for the Texans to sign him to a deal that puts them in a position to not have the opportunity to sign another player later. Being able to make the tough calls on productive players in regards to how much salary is too much is what turns good teams into dynasties. I'm just not confident enough if our front office/coaching staff that we can cast off productive players and consistently find cheaper options who don't cause a drop in production...yet.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by papabear

Fair enough in regards to pay. I don't think that will hold much weight at the bargaining table because his overall numbers were so good. You do have a point though.



I don't think he's being asked to be paid as a red zone solution. He's asked to be paid comparable to what other top TE's are earning. He's clearly has the stats to make that claim even without the big TD numbers.

I think the solution is the running game. I think one area where you can lay some of the blame on Owen is the running game. The TE can be crucial to the running game and blocking isn't his best attribute. I think he's gotten MUCH better in that area, but he will likely never be a dominant run blocker. In that sense Owen is part of the problem...although I would put more of the blame on the interior of the line with Myers and Briesel IMO.

speaking of, I've got really high hopes for Caldwell. I think he's got a chance to give us a little more meat in the short yardage game, while still being able to handle the zone scheme.

I just have a hard time believing that Owen can be a top 5 (top 10 if that makes you happier) TE in the league for over 80 yards, but be a waste of space in the last 20. I would hate for the Texans to sign him to a deal that puts them in a position to not have the opportunity to sign another player later. Being able to make the tough calls on productive players in regards to how much salary is too much is what turns good teams into dynasties. I'm just not confident enough if our front office/coaching staff that we can cast off productive players and consistently find cheaper options who don't cause a drop in production...yet.

I agree that the interior line is most at fault in the redzone. Then probably our RB situation, and OD only after that.

While I still feel I wouldn't pay him huge, this is probably a case of offseason over-analysis as much as anything.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Keith

I don't mean to be blunt, but this is sorta the point: Welcome to 2009. The NFL's barometer for salaries increases significantly every year.

And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too.



Yes, this interpretation worries me some. Are some fans damning him because they perceive the Texans as employers of a TE-friendly offense?

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2006 Tony Scheffler 18-286-4
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4

You have to go back to Shannon Sharpe before you find numbers as good as Daniels'. And Sharpe's stood out among other Bronco TEs, i.e. Sharpe is the reason Sharpe was good, not just the TE-friendly offense. He was a Hall of Fame finalist this year.

Daniels has out-performed Putzier and Scheffler, the former who knew the offense better when he arrived in Houston three years ago, and the latter who was picked two rounds before Daniels. Maybe Daniels is the reason Daniels is good?

I am hopeful Casey is Daniels v2.0. Actually, I think Dreesen gets a chance before Casey. But no one knows for sure how good they can be and how soon.

btw, an extension or a re-worked contract isn't out of the question for Angry Dre, especially if his deal falls out of the top 10 or something.

Interesting analysis, Keith. I especially liked the full article treatment on the front-page. I'm not sure I quite ready to agree with it, but it provided good food for thought. And any analysis that actually provokes thought gets a two thumbs up from me

My thoughts are that Owen Daniels is a good tight end (maybe even very good) but not elite. Essentially a Todd Heap-type rather than an Antonio Gates - certainly nothing to sneeze at and better than most of the league, but not a scary guy. And I'm not sure whether I would want to allocate significant cap resources to a tight end unless they were all-world (and whomever Daniels signs his next contract with will surely be allocating some serious coinage.) Going back to the table you posted on the front page, I come to a slightly different conclusion about the table you posted.

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0

I'm not so sure that those numbers don't point to a tight-end friendly offense. First off, it should be noted that Desmond Clark was also a significant portion of their offense in 2000 and 2001, putting up 339 and 566 yards respectively in those years. So another version of Denver TE production could be expressed like so:

Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0 + Desmond Clark 27-339-3 = 64-820-3
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6 + Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4 = 85-865-10
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3 + Carswell 21-189-1 = 82-875-4
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8 + Carswell 6-53-1 = 68-823-9
2004* Jeb Putzier 36-572-2 + Carswell 22-198-1 = 58-770-3
2005* Jeb Putzier 37-481-0 + Stephen Alexander 27-170-1 = 64-651-1

*H-Back/FB/TE Kyle Johnson also contributed 9-126-2 in '04 and 17-160-5 in '05, but, as the slashes indicate, considering him just a TE is problematic.

Texans TEs:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5 + Putzier 13-125-0 = 47-477-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3 + Putzier/Dreesen 10-94-3 = 73-862-6
2008 Daniels 70-862-2 + Dreesen 11-77-0 = 81-939-2

There are a few things I take away from this grouping. One is that OD provides the lion's share of the Texans TE production. In contrast, the Denver years have two years with split production and in the other years only once did the 2nd TE fail to pick up 170 yards. My interpretation is that this probably occurred due to a few factors. One, Daniels has been considerably better than our 2nd tight ends and has been durable enough be on the field almost all the time. The blocking TE, Bruener, the Texans have paired Daniels with was also not going to see many throws aimed his way. The other thing I notice from this grouping, though, is that the Broncos combined TE production has been similar to the Texans in the Kubiak offense. The average for the years cited for Denver TE's is 70-801-5; the average for Texans TEs is 67-759-4. If you throw out Owen's rookie year, the Texans averages are 77-900-4.

If you just compare the Bronco's top TE's to OD you get:

Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
Average: 47-593-3

Owen Daniels:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3
2008 Daniels 70-862-2
OD Avg: 56-661-3

While I think that Denver chart gives a less clear view of Denver's TE dynamic, I think it's interesting because of the players involved. Dwayne Carswell was an oversized blocking TE who would convert to the offensive line late in his career; only 3 times in his career did he exceed 200 yards receiving (the two mentioned, plus one year at 201 yards.) Desmond Clark disappeared after the 2000 and 2001 campaigns, not matching his 2001 timeshare season again until 2006 when he came out of witness protection for Ron Turner's Bears offense. Sharpe, at the end of his career, was able to average 728 yards and 5 TDs at the ages of 34 and 35 in this offense.

The worst two years on the Broncos list belong to Putzier who has only 19 receptions since the 2004-05 campaigns and couldn't even muster a decent timeshare in Houston despite knowing the system. Even Putzier averaged 525 yards in his years as the #1 TE. For a guy whose done nothing since even as he entered what should have been the prime of his career, 525 yards per year makes it seem like you should be able to plug anyone whose hands aren't made of stone into this offense and get a solid level of production.

This isn't to say that Owen hasn't been better than his Denver predecessors. He has been and I think he's been a pretty good receiving weapon for us. But I'm not sure if he's worth paying him the numbers he will likely get when we can likely get decent production for considerably less money. I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line. I'm wondering if the Texans might be thinking they might be able to match OD's production with a Casey/Hill pairing that would be similar to the Clark/Carswell grouping that combined to produce OD-like numbers. I think these next 8 months or so will be quite interesting to watch how the front office and coaching staff manage this situation.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by dadmg

I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap

I think this is the point where the argument boils down. Yours is an interesting counterpoint, and I think we possibly differ here on something of a philosophical perspective.

Average players are available and come and go. I think it was Charles Barkley who said the NBA was a league of all-stars, i.e. everyone who's good enough to make it can play at a real high level, but not everyone is special and truly capable of separating themselves from the rest of the 'stars'. The NFL is not the NBA, but I think the same perspective is applicable. Premium players are harder to find and they come at a price. Everyone is going to have different thresholds on what to pay.

And where to spend it. Just like with the expansion era Texans when the team had to answer a philosophical question about where to spend their top draft picks, position-wise (yes... if they were really going to go BPA, then they probably would not have forced a QB up their draft board in 2002 for example.) There's the franchise QB, the LT, the pass rusher, the shutdown corner... you have to go really far down that list before you get the seam-busting TE. This where I hesitate to open McNair's wallet ...if I was working under a strict budget.

Originally Posted by dadmg

and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line.

So, yes, this assumes a sort of zero sum limited capital scenario, or at least one severely stricken by salary cap limits. While this was a concern before 2009, I'm not certain it is as concerning from here forward. The next CBA will have a lot to say here. Teams have more cap room than they need this year (a few are going to struggle to spend to the floor much less the max), and as it looks right now, there won't even be a cap in 2010.

As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.

[Nconroe]

I took a similar approach with this, looking at top TE salaries in 2008 and top TE stats includingTDs in 2008. I don't know if OD has been offered a fair or long term deal or exactly where he is evaluated, but I think he need to show up for practice.
Salary looks to me like 2.9 isn't too bad for a TE and some good ones make less than that, a few make more,
Skill, is it TDs or yardage or blocking , doesn't seem like that unusually special , but pretty good.

From USA Today salary Database get this
Player Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary Cap Value
Gonzalez, Tony Chiefs $ 1,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 500,840 $ 1,500,840 $ 5,032,215
Winslow, Kellen Browns $ 4,000,000 $ 0 $ 1,607,500 $ 5,607,500 $ 4,599,584
Smith, L.J. Eagles $ 4,022,000 $ 0 $ 1,320 $ 4,023,320 $ 4,523,320
Gates, Antonio Chargers $ 3,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 840 $ 3,000,840 $ 4,200,840
Graham, Daniel Broncos $ 700,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 900,000 $ 4,150,000
Witten, Jason Cowboys $ 1,905,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 5,760 $ 1,910,760 $ 4,110,760
McMichael, Randy Rams $ 2,900,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 1,440 $ 2,901,440 $ 3,901,440
Kleinsasser, Jim Vikings $ 2,400,000 $ 0 $ 600,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 3,850,000
Heap, Todd Ravens $ 730,000 $ 2,270,000 $ 4,680 $ 3,004,680 $ 3,502,180
Davis, Vernon 49ers $ 900,000 $ 0 $ 3,775,000 $ 4,675,000 $ 3,340,000
Shiancoe, Odai Vikings $ 2,100,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 2,400,000 $ 3,200,000
Kelly, Reggie Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 2,200,000 $ 3,200,000
Miller, Zach Raiders $ 370,000 $ 965,000 $ 5,174,880 $ 5,544,880 $ 3,139,130
Cooley, Chris Redskins $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 90,000 $ 11,695,000 $ 3,028,333
Lee, Donald Packers $ 1,600,000 $ 0 $ 1,366,720 $ 2,966,720 $ 2,881,720
Utecht, Ben Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 5,040 $ 4,005,040 $ 2,671,706
Clark, Dallas Colts $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 45,000 $ 11,650,000 $ 2,483,333
Shockey, Jeremy Saints $ 1,925,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 500,000 $ 2,425,000 $ 2,425,000
Clark, Desmond Bears $ 1,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 3,506,720 $ 2,340,056
Royal, Robert Bills $ 1,675,000 $ 2,500,000 $ 152,160 $ 1,827,160 $ 2,327,160
Campbell, Dan Lions $ 1,800,000 $ 0 $ 75,000 $ 1,875,000 $ 2,315,000
Crumpler, Alge Titans $ 1,200,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 2,706,720 $ 2,056,720

Is Gonzales the top TE, hear are his stats to compare, so OD is not Gonzales. More yards and lots more TD's.

GONZALEZ’S NFL STATISTICS
RECEIVING
Year Team G-S No. Yds. Avg. LG TD
1997 Kansas City 16-0 33 368 11.2 30 2
1998 Kansas City 16-16 59 621 10.5 32 2
1999 Kansas City 15-15 76 849 11.2 73 11
2000 Kansas City 16-16 93 1,203 12.9 39 9
2001 Kansas City 16-16 73 917 12.8 36 6
2002 Kansas City 16-16 63 773 12.3 42 7
2003 Kansas City 16-16 71 916 12.9 67 10
2004 Kansas City 16-16 102 1,258 12.3 32 7
Totals 127-111 570 6,905 12.1 73 54

TE in 2008 stats - from ESPN receiver ranking
RNK NAME REC YDS AVG YPG LNG TD FUM LST
12 Tony Gonzalez TE, KAN 96 1058 11.0 66.1 35 10 0 0
25 Jason Witten TE, DAL 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 0 0
32 Owen Daniels TE, HOU 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 2 1
35 Chris Cooley TE, WAS 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 3 2
36 Dallas Clark TE, IND 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 2 1

and TE ranking from nfl.com for 2008,
Rk Player Team Pos Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st 1st% FUM
1 Tony Gonzalez KC TE 96 1,058 11.0 66.1 35 10 10 0 67 69.8 0
2 Chris Cooley WAS TE 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 7 0 43 51.8 3
3 Jason Witten DAL TE 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 14 1 50 61.7 0
4 Dallas Clark IND TE 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 13 0 41 53.2 2
5 Owen Daniels HOU TE 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 10 0 46 65.7 2
6 Antonio Gates SD TE 60 704 11.7 44.0 34 8 8 0 39 65.0 1
7 Bo Scaife TEN TE 58 561 9.7 35.1 44 2 4 1 29 50.0 1
8 Zach Miller OAK TE 56 778 13.9 48.6 63T 1 16 1 32 57.1 0
9 John Carlson SEA TE 55 627 11.4 39.2 33 5 10 0 36 65.5 0
10 Greg Olsen CHI TE 54 574 10.6 35.9 52 5 6 1 31 57.4 2
11 Jeremy Shockey NO TE 50 483 9.7 40.2 26 0 4 0 30 60.0 2
12 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 48 535 11.1 33.4 54 3 7 1 32 66.7 0
12 Heath Miller PIT TE 48 514 10.7 36.7 22 3 4 0 29 60.4 1
14 Billy Miller NO TE 45 579 12.9 38.6 41 1 11 1 30 66.7 0
15 Kellen Winslow CLE TE 43 428 10.0 42.8 30 3 3 0 25 58.1 1
16 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN TE 42 596 14.2 37.2 40 7 12 1 30 71.4 0
17 Desmond Clark CHI TE 41 367 9.0 22.9 35 1 5 0 18 43.9 1

and then ODs stats from nfl.com
Season Team Receiving Rushing Fumbles
G GS Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Att Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost
2008 Houston Texans 16 16 70 862 12.3 35 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2 1
2007 Houston Texans 16 16 63 768 12.2 29 3 -- -- -- -- -- 4 3
2006 Houston Texans 14 12 34 352 10.4 33T 5 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
TOTAL 167 1,982 11.9 35 10 0 0 0.0 0 0 6 4


Overall, sure be fair and be realistic, OD, you have good competition to make the team now.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Keith

I


So, yes, this assumes a sort of zero sum limited capital scenario, or at least one severely stricken by salary cap limits. While this was a concern before 2009, I'm not certain it is as concerning from here forward. The next CBA will have a lot to say here. Teams have more cap room than they need this year (a few are going to struggle to spend to the floor much less the max), and as it looks right now, there won't even be a cap in 2010.

When I was writing that sentence, that popped into my head and I thought about tossing in a qualifier. But, honestly, I would be surprised (not to mention very disappointed) if there was no labor agreement before the start of the off-season. The biggest problem I foresee is that the owners have more leverage (the severe restrictions on player movement and lack of a salary floor in uncapped year) but the NFLPA has a new boss and Demaurice Smith probably doesn't want to start his career being known as the guy who gave up what they got in Gene Upshaw's final negotiations (which turned out to be a windfall as he played big owners against small owners instead of against him). That worries me a little. But there's too much for both sides to lose here. So I'm keeping my fingers crossed hoping for a painless resolution even though a protracted struggle with an uncapped 2010 might benefit my team.

As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.

'twas interesting.

[kravix]

dadmg,

not to take from the conversation here, but my understanding is that there is more of a rift between the owners and profit sharing than there is with the NFLPA and the owners. I understnad that some teams couldnt come close to the cap without the CBA and why it crosses into both realms, and I understand why they cant negotiate them seperatly at this point because of revenue, but it would be nice if we had a new agreement in place with no uncapped year, and a rookie payscale.

I dont see how the rich owners dont understand that their salaries will be more than they pay in revenue sharing now if they dont agree. Football works because of the sharing, FA, and cap which gives it more parity.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by kravix

dadmg,

not to take from the conversation here, but my understanding is that there is more of a rift between the owners and profit sharing than there is with the NFLPA and the owners. I understnad that some teams couldnt come close to the cap without the CBA and why it crosses into both realms, and I understand why they cant negotiate them seperatly at this point because of revenue, but it would be nice if we had a new agreement in place with no uncapped year, and a rookie payscale.

I dont see how the rich owners dont understand that their salaries will be more than they pay in revenue sharing now if they dont agree. Football works because of the sharing, FA, and cap which gives it more parity.

Sorry, I was a bit confusing there. The rift was/is between the owners, but I've read a few articles that said Upshaw did a good job during the last round of negotiations to keep the focus on the owners rift between each other to make it more difficult for them to present a united front and bargain better against the players, which may have been how the players came away like bandits in that last round of CBA negotiations.

[cland]

In Daniels credit, I think we may be over analyzing the stats. Stats tell you a lot about your offenses scheme and offensive coaches/players success on a fairly high level. But, when you look at the TE position you have to take into account that their skills are much more about quality rather than quantity.

To put it simply, would you throw to Owen when it's 4th and 7, with the game on the line. I'd say yes, and I think Daniels has made a pretty strong case. The guy catches everything thrown his way. Dressen could probably put up %70 of Daniels numbers at %10 of the cost, but the critical game moments is when a TE earns his money.

That being said, I'll pay Daniels the top 3-4 TE money just for those critical game moments.

[Royal We Texans Off]

[barrett]

Originally Posted by cland

In Daniels credit, I think we may be over analyzing the stats. Stats tell you a lot about your offenses scheme and offensive coaches/players success on a fairly high level. But, when you look at the TE position you have to take into account that their skills are much more about quality rather than quantity.

To put it simply, would you throw to Owen when it's 4th and 7, with the game on the line. I'd say yes, and I think Daniels has made a pretty strong case. The guy catches everything thrown his way. Dressen could probably put up %70 of Daniels numbers at %10 of the cost, but the critical game moments is when a TE earns his money.

That being said, I'll pay Daniels the top 3-4 TE money just for those critical game moments.

[Royal We Texans Off]

Isn't the goalline where a TE has most of their "critical" moments? If so I can't see paying OD huge money.

My problem is I don't see OD as one of our most important players and I think if you pay him big (even in an uncapped situation), than you end up with a dozen other guys wanting big paydays.

Just among our skill position guys OD is the #4 option. How many #4 options see big paydays?

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by barrett

Isn't the goalline where a TE has most of their "critical" moments? If so I can't see paying OD huge money.

My problem is I don't see OD as one of our most important players and I think if you pay him big (even in an uncapped situation), than you end up with a dozen other guys wanting big paydays.

Just among our skill position guys OD is the #4 option. How many #4 options see big paydays?

This is exactly how I see the situation. I think OD's yardage total is highly misleading in relation to his true value. I hear people like Lance Zurlein saying ''well you have to pay him what he wants anyway because those are his numbers.'' I say no you don't.

I say if you want to run a top-notch organization you don't overpay anybody if you don't have to. Personally, I will lose some respect for Rick Smith if he caves in to OD's demands. Because both Smith and Kubiak know he's not worth what he's asking for.

[da Bull]

For me, the real question is where do you put the premium (long term, high dollar contracts) when the team starts winning? We all assume, hopefully so, that it will begin this upcoming season. So, everyone participating is going to want to get paid the big bucks and there isn't going to be enough to go around. Even in an uncapped year, there is going to be a threshold of available monies just like there will be a threshold regarding fans paying escalated ticket prices, buying expensive gear and etc.

Yah, we want the guys who were on the bus while making the trip to get paid. But, I'd rather see the bus keep on rolling than be stopped for lack of gas money.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by barrett

Isn't the goalline where a TE has most of their "critical" moments? If so I can't see paying OD huge money.

My problem is I don't see OD as one of our most important players and I think if you pay him big (even in an uncapped situation), than you end up with a dozen other guys wanting big paydays.

Just among our skill position guys OD is the #4 option. How many #4 options see big paydays?

#4 option? who are the three people you have in front of him?

AJ most certainly.

I am assuming you are including Slayton in there. He definitely had a great rookie year, but he needs to show he can continue that. Also, I guess what number slayton is depends on the situation. 3rd and 1, i got no problem saying he is top 2 options, 3rd and 7? not so sure.

You could go with walter, but i think daniels is a better option than him, and at no worse even with him.

also you have to think about positions when you make these decisions. if daniels is as good as your #2 wide receiver then he is worth much, much more than that #2. Given our scheme, daniels is often going to get matched up with a line backer since he is a tight end, which means there will often be a mismatch, you have to take that into account, and if they put a db on him, that opens up other options for the offense that wouldnt normally be there. again though, please list the three guys you have ahead of daniels. (schaub does not count)

[barrett]

Originally Posted by cadams

#4 option? who are the three people you have in front of him?

AJ most certainly.

I am assuming you are including Slayton in there. He definitely had a great rookie year, but he needs to show he can continue that. Also, I guess what number slayton is depends on the situation. 3rd and 1, i got no problem saying he is top 2 options, 3rd and 7? not so sure.

You could go with walter, but i think daniels is a better option than him, and at no worse even with him.

also you have to think about positions when you make these decisions. if daniels is as good as your #2 wide receiver then he is worth much, much more than that #2. Given our scheme, daniels is often going to get matched up with a line backer since he is a tight end, which means there will often be a mismatch, you have to take that into account, and if they put a db on him, that opens up other options for the offense that wouldnt normally be there. again though, please list the three guys you have ahead of daniels. (schaub does not count)

The three that you easily came up with. AJ is clearly our #1 offensive option. Everything revolves around him and the way that defenses must account for him.

Slaton is clearly #2. He was a big threat in both the passing and running game. He totalled over 1650 yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs.

Walter is a notch above Daniels as well. He went for 900 yards and 8 TDs. He is reliable over the middle, on the out route, and stretches the field. Most of the time you get one of the three with a second receiver. He did them all, and he is a great blocker. Honestly he is a better run blocker than OD.

Daniels has really good numbers for a TE, but he is still the #4 option for the Texans. He is a very smart player. He is great at adjusting his routes to give Schaub an outlet against the blitz. He shows great patience getting off of the line and into his routes and avoids safety coverage by doing this (that's why he runs the backside screen so well). He's a great fit here. He is honestly one of my favorite Texans. I hope we retain him. I just don't know of many teams paying option 4 huge money.

But I will admit that I looked at the other TE contracts around the league and they have leaped up the last few years with guys like Dallas Clark getting rich and even Chris Cooley cashing in. So he is honestly not being unreasonable.

So I hope OD gets his and it doesn't keep us from keeping everyone else we need to keep (because their are probably a dozen guys I think are more important to retain).

[superbowlbound]

Originally Posted by barrett

The three that you easily came up with. AJ is clearly our #1 offensive option. Everything revolves around him and the way that defenses must account for him.

Slaton is clearly #2. He was a big threat in both the passing and running game. He totalled over 1650 yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs.

Walter is a notch above Daniels as well. He went for 900 yards and 8 TDs. He is reliable over the middle, on the out route, and stretches the field. Most of the time you get one of the three with a second receiver. He did them all, and he is a great blocker. Honestly he is a better run blocker than OD.

Daniels has really good numbers for a TE, but he is still the #4 option for the Texans. He is a very smart player. He is great at adjusting his routes to give Schaub an outlet against the blitz. He shows great patience getting off of the line and into his routes and avoids safety coverage by doing this (that's why he runs the backside screen so well). He's a great fit here. He is honestly one of my favorite Texans. I hope we retain him. I just don't know of many teams paying option 4 huge money.

But I will admit that I looked at the other TE contracts around the league and they have leaped up the last few years with guys like Dallas Clark getting rich and even Chris Cooley cashing in. So he is honestly not being unreasonable.

So I hope OD gets his and it doesn't keep us from keeping everyone else we need to keep (because their are probably a dozen guys I think are more important to retain).

I'm not disagreeing entirely with you, as I think you're pretty much correct, save a bit of the walter argument. While the numbers don't lie, and his TD numbers were better than Daniels, what? 4 times over? But I think you underestimate his value as a security blanket, especially given how small slaton is. You really don't want slaton having to catch too many balls with his back to the defense in the middle of the field. Daniels does a great job as an outlet, which further increases his value. a reliable guy that can play in the seams and stretch the field from the TE position is not that easily found. As a reliable outlet in the flats, he saves wear on the only solid back on this roster, and allows Matt to stay in a rhythm by completing passes rather than eating sacks or chucking it out of bounds. The fact of the matter is that Daniels is easily one of the best TE's in football, and when guys like LJ Smith and Jim Kleinsasser are nearly lapping him in terms of cap numbers, the dude is owed a raise. period.

Also, you say that Walter is a much better run blocker than daniels, but look at who he's blocking. Daniels is up against strong side defensive ends and linebackers, while walter is blocking #2 CB's. when there's an 80 lb difference between the defenders in question, that argument doesn't really hold water. Besides, Daniels is an adequate, willing run blocker, so I don't see that as much of an issue.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by superbowlbound

I'm not disagreeing entirely with you, as I think you're pretty much correct, save a bit of the walter argument. While the numbers don't lie, and his TD numbers were better than Daniels, what? 4 times over? But I think you underestimate his value as a security blanket, especially given how small slaton is. You really don't want slaton having to catch too many balls with his back to the defense in the middle of the field. Daniels does a great job as an outlet, which further increases his value. a reliable guy that can play in the seams and stretch the field from the TE position is not that easily found. As a reliable outlet in the flats, he saves wear on the only solid back on this roster, and allows Matt to stay in a rhythm by completing passes rather than eating sacks or chucking it out of bounds. The fact of the matter is that Daniels is easily one of the best TE's in football, and when guys like LJ Smith and Jim Kleinsasser are nearly lapping him in terms of cap numbers, the dude is owed a raise. period.

Also, you say that Walter is a much better run blocker than daniels, but look at who he's blocking. Daniels is up against strong side defensive ends and linebackers, while walter is blocking #2 CB's. when there's an 80 lb difference between the defenders in question, that argument doesn't really hold water. Besides, Daniels is an adequate, willing run blocker, so I don't see that as much of an issue.

I agree with you here that he deserves a raise. I balk at how much out of gut reaction, but with my last post I went and looked at TE salaries and saw I was wrong about where they are at. It appears OD is not being unreasonable, and I hope he gets paid commensurate for what he does.

But I disagree regarding the blocking. Walter is often cracking in our run game and I have seen him stone LBs and be a willing speed bump for DL. OD on the other hand is often put in motion in the run game and is matched up heads up very rarely with a LB on the play side in our offense. Walter is a great run blocker and is far more eager for contact than daniels. But OD is a pass catching TE who is split off the line regularly so I have no problem with him not being a 6th OL in the run game. Honestly he 'blocks' more effectively by being a good receiver, spreading the field, and not tipping run or pass by being on the field than he does by actually blocking. But either way, I think Walter is a better option in the offense, and a very complete player. There are not many better WR2s in the NFL. Walter for a 7th rounder was probably our best trade ever.