Compensatory Picks

[Keith]

There is an esteemed poster who typically hangs around KFFL that estimates compensatory picks with a great deal of accuracy. Last year, he posted his projection to his blog in early March, so I'm guessing he hasn't put anything together yet for 2009.

To guess what the Texans might have for compensatory picks, allow me to summarize some of the function. The determination is based upon a team losing more or better in free agents than they acquire. The super double secret formula used by the league is believed to include salary, playing time, and awards. Salary is the main component.

According to the poster, AdamJT13, a player is included in the equation if he was a true UFA, meaning his previous contract had expired or voided. Players released by the old team are not included as are players signed by their new team after the end of the signing period, which is usually just before training camps open. There also seems to be a minimum annual contract value to be considered, and Adam puts that figure somewhere between $750k and $800k last year.

So now the trick is figuring out which Texans players - if any - are included in the equation. Historically, the Texans have not been awarded many compensatory picks. This is due in part to them sucking and not losing much in value while at the same time grossly overpaying for middling or overrated talent like Morlon Greenwood, Anthony Weaver, Ahman Green, Robaire Smith... must I continue?

For 2008, the Texans signed of note:
Jacques Reeves, $4 million average
Chris Myers, $2.75 million (RFA acquired via trade, not UFA, so shouldn't count)
Chris Brown, $1.4 million (went on IR, probably hurts value)
Kevin Bentley, $1.167 million
Chaun Thompson, $700,000, probably not a factor
Nick Ferguson, vet min, probably not a factor

And other UFAs lost include:
Charlie Anderson, $2.45 million
Von Hutchins, $2.25 million (went on IR, probably hurts his value)
Danny Clark, $2 million

So the salary net is $6.567 million in players acquired and $6.7 million in players lost. Each side has a player on IR. Looking at them on a round-value basis:

Reeves - 5th rounder
Brown - 7th rounder
Bentley - 7th rounder

Anderson - 6th rounder
Hutchins - 6th rounder (adjust down to 7th?)
Clark - 7th rounder

I think a seventh rounder might be possible but since Reeves cost the Texans so much and he played the whole year, I wouldn't count on the Texans getting any compensatory picks in 2009.