Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings]

[HPF Bob]

After another nailbiter, the Texans maintain their conference lead but the division leaders made ground on the wild card hopefuls with one more team jumping into contention:

1. Houston 9-1 (AFC South)
2. Baltimore 8-2 (AFC North)
3. New England 7-3 (AFC East)
4. Denver 7-3 (AFC West)
5. Indianapolis 6-4 (Wild Card 1) (4-3 in conf)
6. Pittsburgh 6-4 (Wild Card 2) (3-4 in conf)
--------
7. Cincinnati 5-5 (3-5 in conf)

The Bengals have two ways to get in - they can overtake Indy or hope that Indy ends the year with six conference losses while Cincy runs the table against AFC opponents OR they can beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh in Week 16 and hope to get other divisional tiebreakers to swing their way (PIT is 1-1 in the division while Cincy is 1-3 - Pittsburgh won, 24-17, in Cincy earlier in the season).

So the Bengals are clearly on the outside looking in but if they run the table with SD, OAK, DAL and PHI then beat PIT, it may come down to beating Baltimore in the final week for them.

All the 4-6 teams (BUF, SD, MIA, NYJ, TEN) will need to put on a surge to get into the playoffs.

[HPF Bob]

Incidentally, this site calculates that the Texans have a 72% chance to get the #1 seed and a <1% chance of missing the playoffs altogether.

[TheMatrix31]

I really wonder how the injury situations will change things for the AFC when all is said and done. Ben and such hurt in Pittsburgh, Gronkowski hurt in New England (might miss the game against us, even?), all of Baltimore's stuff, Cushing.....

Really interesting. If the playoffs started this coming weekend, I'd be most scared of Denver and New England. Boy, wouldn't it be something if we faced Peyton in the playoffs? I gotta admit, the prospect of facing Manning for a second time in one season scares the shit out of me.

[HPF Bob]

Denver just lost Willis McGahee for 6-8 weeks and none of his backups are all that steady. Without a running game for play action, Manning might be less effective. He still has problems getting his Denver receivers in sync and seems to rely on Brandon Stokely when he needs a critical third down. But Denver's defense is a lot better than when the Texans played them and they just added LB D.J. Williams back from a nine-week suspension.

I'm most worried about New England. But if we stay the #1 seed and they become the #2 or #3 seed, we won't see them until the AFC Championship Game.

[HPF Bob]

ESPN has just posted their "Playoff Machine" online

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Just enter all your "what if" scenarios and see how it comes out.

[Keith]

So the Texans just missed clinching a wild card spot this weekend, but doing so next Sunday is very likely.

A Texans win over the Titans, and I believe they not only clinch a wild card spot, but they will have clinched no worse than the #5 seed.

Even if the Texans lose, a Dolphins loss (against the Patriots) clinches the #6 seed. Or, the combo of both the Bengals and Steelers losing gives them at least the #6 seed as well. If all four teams lose (Texans, Dolphins, Bengals, and Steelers), then the Texans are the #5.

They cannot yet clinch the division in Week 13 as the Colts are still too close with both head-to-head games to play.

ok... scenarios aside, the team seems likely to get one of the top 2 seeds with the big Week 14 match in New England pending. The likely AFC wild cards seem weak this season (aside from an interesting Denver-Indy matchup), so the Texans seem likely to host Denver or Baltimore in the divisional round then possibly the Pats for the AFC championship.

Based on how the pass D has looked the last two games, a shootout against Tom Brady seems daunting, but legit talk about deep AFC playoff matchups in late November is refreshing around here.

[popanot]

Looks like "Next Man Up" applies to the D this year. Hopefully Wade and crew can find the right recipe of players and dial up the right schemes to keep the W's coming. I think we should be good if we can get two more AFC wins out of the remaining games. Sure would've been nice had the Chargers taken care of business and beat the Ravens yesterday.

[HPF Bob]

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

[WMH]

I don't see Bmore winning out.
Thier remaining schedule is brutal:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Pittsburgh 4:25 PM CBS
14 Sun, Dec 9 @Washington 1:00 PM CBS
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs Denver 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs New York (G) 1:00 PM FOX
17 Sun, Dec 30 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS

In all honesty, I can see them dropping 2 or even 3 of those games.

Just my opinion, but I believe the top 2 will come from HOU, NE or DEN, in that order.

Denvers remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Tampa Bay 4:05 PM FOX
14 Thu, Dec 6 @Oakland 8:20 PM NFL
15 Sun, Dec 16 @Baltimore 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 4:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 4:25 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Tampa, who's been playing pretty well, and @Bmore.

NE's remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 @Miami 1:00 PM CBS
14 Mon, Dec 10 vs Houston 8:30 PM
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs San Francisco 8:20 PM NBC
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Houston, , and San Fran.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

[HPF Bob]

Looks like Denver is winning so it should be:

1. Houston 12-3 (has tiebreaker over Denver)
2. Denver 12-3
3. New England 11-4
4. Baltimore 10-5
5. Indianapolis 10-5
5. Cincinnati 9-6

It seems extremely likely that if Houston beats Indy, these standings will look the same next week But if Indy wins, Houston drops to the #3 seed and hosts Cincy in the first round followed by a return trip to New England.

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

We have to really hope it stays this way.