Why we'll keep Mario...

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

You're not sure if Mario is more valuable than Barwin?

I think Mario is perhaps only marginally better than Barwin as a 3-4 OLB, but the really significant consideration is value and since we can likely resign Barwin in the 2012-13 free agency for only half the monetary consideration that Mario will command this year, and that's also assuming that Connor has his second consecutive double-digit sack season, it seems foolish to me to pull out all of the stops to retain Mario.

[cadams]

if barwin has another double-digit sack season he will probably get less than mario will, but i don't think it will be as low as half of what mario will command.

i will say this, i would love to see what wade could cook up on long passing downs that would have mario, barwin and reed in the game at the same time.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I think Mario is perhaps only marginally better than Barwin as a 3-4 OLB, but the really significant consideration is value and since we can likely resign Barwin in the 2012-13 free agency for only half the monetary consideration that Mario will command this year, and that's also assuming that Connor has his second consecutive double-digit sack season, it seems foolish to me to pull out all of the stops to retain Mario.

Jason Babin got $30 million after 5 years of nothing and one year with 13 sacks on a losing team. If Barwin puts up a 2nd consecutive double digit sack season, on a winning team (superbowl), just as salaries are increasing, he will see at least $50 million. And if he doesn't put up double digit sacks it is not a marginal difference between Mario and him.

But I don't see why it is one or the other. In no way does resigning Mario mean Barwin walks down the road. Like I said, the Giants prove a defense does not have two pass rushers. They have 4+ and it works. The Ravens don't have 4 and the Patriots OL swallowed up Suggs. The AFC Championship runs through New England almost every year, and their is a blueprint to beating them. Kill the QB. There is no way cutting Walter and JJ (nearly $5 million combined), or extending someone else to defer big salaries until 2014 (they could do this easily with Mario) is not a better idea than giving up our best pass rusher.

[Arky]

From what I gather, Wade is really high on Mario - likes him a lot.... So, it will be interesting so see which way they go with #90....

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

Jason Babin got $30 million after 5 years of nothing and one year with 13 sacks on a losing team. If Barwin puts up a 2nd consecutive double digit sack season, on a winning team (superbowl), just as salaries are increasing, he will see at least $50 million. And if he doesn't put up double digit sacks it is not a marginal difference between Mario and him.

Babin gets a five-year deal that will pay $28 million with around $5-6 million guaranteed.
http://phillysportscentral.com/eagle...-contract.html
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Babin only got 5-6 M guaranteed money last summer when he signed with Philly, but I would expect Barwin to get 3 times that if he has another good season this Fall which will as I said and expect be only 'bout half of the guaranteed money Mario might expect soon.
C'mon man, I think you know the guaranteed coin is what everybody pays attention to, that other stuff is all basically "funny money".

[barrett]

The other stuff might be funny money, if you plan to cut a guy before the contract runs out. If you sign a young guy like Barwin you are only cutting him if something goes wrong and he does not perform. If you don't plan on him playing out his contract then you certainly don't cut Mario Williams.

Not to mention the total contract and salary per year is what affects the cap number which is what we are talking about here.

If Barwin gets 5 years for $15-20 million gauranteed (with say 50 total), and Mario is at 6 years and 40 million gauranteed (and 80) total, then the cap number is not that different. One contract spreads it out to 10 million a year and the other to 13 million.

Obviously the deal with the lower gaurantee lets you get out of it easier, but that only matters if you care about future cap health (like 3-5 years down the road if you think one of these guys might be cut and the un-amortized bonus counts), or if you are worried about the health of Bob McNair's wallet.

Neither of those things should matter for a team that wants to win a superbowl next year. Spend the money and figure out the future in the future (when the cap skyrockets anyways, not to mention contracts will skyrocket in a few years with the salary floor, meaning Barwin's deal could be much bigger since everyone has to spend).

[Nconroe]

We're all speculating on what 2012 salary cap will be and what Texans current salary cap number is. Plus, they need to be under whatever the new number is on March 13 and then again somewhere when season begins, other times I think things can temporarily be over or under.

Here is a link to a place that thinks Texans currently sit at $116 mil
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports...12-season.html

Here is a link that has current core Texans salaries at $90 mil total
http://www.sportscity.com/NFL/Houston-Texans-Salaries

I hope for sure Texans can keep all their top free agents and think they likely can do that, including Mario, Arian, Chris and a few others.

[HPF Bob]

From the above Sun-Sentinal link:

The salary cap for 2012 has not been set, but it is projected to be between $121-125 million, with teams being able to borrow another $2 million from future caps. Therefore, we’ll safely project the salary cap to be at $124 million in ’12. But please understand this is an estimation.

If Mario was already at $13 million and then we're $4-8 mill under the cap, then I hope we can simply fit Mario into a deal that doesn't raise that number at all and use the money on Foster who will get a big raise.

[barrett]

I think Mario was at $18 million last year. An $8-12 million cap number is reasonable on even a huge long term deal.

So the $6-10 million less he'll count next year plus the cap increase should allow us to do what we want. Especially if we dump JJ and a few others for younger/cheaper alternatives.

[WMH]

Saw this earlier, sure don't see how this will help us keep Mario, or the others for that matter:
@JRRickert: San Diego Chargers and Houston Texans elected not to carry over 2011 salary cap room to 2012 --

Granted, its "only" a reported $3MM-$4MM, my question is Why Not?

In thier pressers, both Kubiak and Smith declared he remains a priority, why not put every bit of ammo you can in your gun?

Don't understand the logic behind that, especially in the situation we are reported to be in.

[TheMatrix31]

Sad to see Mario go, but it's foolish for anyone to grab him at that price.

We'll roll with our boys.

[edo783]

Loved Mario when he was on and hate to see him go, but for the club this is the right thing. My ONLY real concern on the front 7 is depth and quality of the rotation. If we lose Meyers also, that puts major strain on the draft to be a home run. I would take the Koch (sp) kid out of Wisconsin with the first pick and then best convertable or already an OLB with the 2nd. Not the way I would have wanted to play the 1st two picks, but ya have to play the cards as they are delt to you.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

Sad to see Mario go, but it's foolish for anyone to grab him at that price.

We'll roll with our boys.

Couldn't agree more, it is sad to see him leave but the going-price was ridiculous and I would have been upset with the Texans had the price they paid been anything like because he's just not worth it to us.
When Winston was cut I was for sure stunned, but it didn't occur to me that it was anything but an isolated situation. Then came Myers and Breisel, neither of whom were resigned and allowed to seek work else where, and that's when I became convinced that Smith and his cap guy Olsen have failed to understand and/or mismanaged the new CBA as it relates to player compensation.
This is a major breakdown and one of the few things that could sabotage Texans momentum going into the 2012 season.