Playoff scenarios

[HPF Bob]

We have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Pittsburgh but Baltimore has the head-to-head over us. The problem is that if the Texans tie with both then the first elimination is between Pittsburgh and Baltimore which Baltimore wins due to a 2-0 series win over Pittsburgh which then gives Baltimore the tiebreaker over us too.

So, somehow, the Steelers have to finish a game ahead of the Ravens but manage to lose again themselves while Houston wins out in order for Houston to get a first-round bye. That means Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have to lose one more time while Houston does not.

Then it will be:

New England 13-3
Houston 12-4
Pittsburgh 12-4 (loses tiebreaker)
Baltimore 11-5 as a wild card.

In any other rational scenario, we're the #3 seed.

[nunusguy]

So if we open up with a wild-card game at Reliant I'm thinking it's looking like Cinci again or the Jets or maybe someone out of the AFC west ?

[HPF Bob]

NYJ (8-6): vs NYG, @ MIA
CIN (8-6): vs ARZ, vs BAL
TEN (7-7): vs JAX, @ HOU
OAK (7-7): @ KC, vs SD
SD (7-7): @ DET, @ OAK

Nobody has an easy road to the last playoff spot. We need to root for the Bagels to beat the Ratbirds the final weak of the season.

[cadams]

if pitt loses tonight and the pats lose one of their remaining two the texans would get the number one seed. 4 teams at 12-4, pitt out due to balt having head to head wins, then hou has best conf record between new england and baltimore

[Nconroe]

If Rithlesberger keeps throwing picks Pitt just might loose.

[popanot]

Well, 1 down... Of course, the Texans need to hold up their end of the bargain and win out. Let's hope the Ravens lose another game. Talk by some of wanting to see the Texans in a wildcard game b/c it gives them (and us fans) a better chance at a playoff win is just plain silly. I'd much rather take the path of playing the fewest games possible to reach the SB.

[Arky]

The Chron posted a pretty thorough breakdown of the all the playoff scenarios.

If the Texans want a first-round bye, they need help.

If they win their two remaining games — at Indianapolis (on Thursday) and against visiting Tennessee (Jan. 1) — they would earn a bye only if either New England or Baltimore suffers a loss.

New England, at 11-3 is in control of the race for the top seed. The Patriots face Miami, which lost to New England earlier this year but is 5-2 after an 0-7 start to the year. The Patriots close with Buffalo, which beat New England earlier this year but has lost its last seven games.

Baltimore has the most challenging game remaining of the top four teams, finishing the year at Cincinnati, which lost 31-24 to Baltimore earlier this season but likely will be fighting for a wild-card berth. The Ravens also host 4-10 Cleveland.

The Ravens swept Pittsburgh during the season, so in a tie-breaker the Ravens would win the AFC North, leaving Pittsburgh with a wild-card berth.

But, should Baltimore fall to Cincinnati (or Cleveland), Pittsburgh would win the division by winning out against two sorry teams (St. Louis and Cleveland).

If Pittsburgh wins the division and finishes with the same record as Houston, the Texans would get the edge because of their win over the Steelers this season.

So, Texans fans, there’s another reason to cheer for former Katy star Andy Dalton and the Bengals in the final week of the season.

The most likely scenario, if there is such a thing, is that New England, Baltimore and Houston win out (since they are the top playoff teams after all), giving the Texans the No. 3 overall seed and a first-round game at Reliant Stadium.

Against whom? Well, good luck figuring that out. (See below)