The upcoming Falcons game, 12/4/2011

[Arky]

Originally Posted by WMH

They have played 5 Top Ten Rushing Offenses:
Bears - 27/88 - Forte 16/68 (team = 3.3 ypc)
Philly - 30/133 - McCoy 18/95 (team = 4.4 ypc)
Car - 26/139 (team = 5.3 ypc)
NO - 14/41 (team = 2.9 ypc)
MN - 24/64 - Gearhart was in for Peterson (remember when we wanted THAT guy?) (team = 2.7 ypc)

My only point is, stats can be skewed.

I can agree with that statement, but for team stats, at this point in the season, you can start seeing the trends.... I don't really look at stats until about 4 games into the season and don't really start to trust stats until after about 8 games. If you avg all that red above you get 3.8 ypc which is not that far off their current season avg of 3.7. If your alternate point was that Forte and McCoy had pretty good games against them, yes they did. Let's hope Foster/Tate do also...

Devils Advocate, while we are ranked #1 in Total D, we are not the best D in the league. We are solid, but you have to factor in who we have played.

We're #1 in yds/game (and a couple of other categories, I think) but it's not really Total D. Football Outsiders and their metrics attempt to add in the opponent strength. They currently have the Texans at #4 against the pass and #11 against the run for an overall ranking of #7 defense. The Falcons are right behind us at #8 overall with a #11 ranking against the pass (which is above average) and #2 against the run (there's that #2 again).

I have no reservations that we will be able to run on them. My guess is that the Foster/Tate tandem will be in the 30-35 carry range in the 140 yd. area.

At least that is what I hope will happen in order for us to have a chance.....

Hope you're right!