The upcoming Jaguars game, 10/30/2011

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Don't confuse "picking the Jaguars" against the spread (+7) with "picking the Jaguars" to win the game. I don't think anybody here is doing the latter.....

Exactly. I think the Texans will win but not by 10+, i.e. Jags to cover....

This should be a taking-care-of-business game for the Texans. We learn a little bit about this year's team each week and there are some things going on that are unprecedented. For example, they are +6 in giveaways/takeaways which is good for 2nd in the AFC (Buffalo is +9). That's what winning teams do: have more takeaways than giveaways. I'm pretty sure they've never had that good of position in their history this late into the season. So, is there a game on the horizon where they cough the ball up left and right ("same old Texans") or are they going to keep improving that number?

[Nconroe]

And if sacks relates, Texans have 19 , same as Baltimore, which is second highest in NFL to 14 sacks by Jags.

Otherwise defenses stack up pretty even and maybe Jacksonville has had an even tougher schedule than Texans to date.

I was thinking something like 24-16 for Texans, but who knows. Just win.

[TheMatrix31]

Just don't give up any stupid fake punts.

[HPF Bob]

Apparently, the very early lines had the Texans by 9-1/2 so it has already moved down if it is now 7. The two things that concern me are: 1) the Texans have never been that good at stopping MJD and 2) we'll be the fourth straight 3-4 defense the Jags will have faced so they'll know exactly what we are doing.

IMO, Sunday was the first time all year we've played two good halves. Just because it happened once, we shouldn't assume we won't go back to our "one good half" trend this week.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Apparently, the very early lines had the Texans by 9-1/2 so it has already moved down if it is now 7. The two things that concern me are: 1) the Texans have never been that good at stopping MJD and 2) we'll be the fourth straight 3-4 defense the Jags will have faced so they'll know exactly what we are doing.

IMO, Sunday was the first time all year we've played two good halves. Just because it happened once, we shouldn't assume we won't go back to our "one good half" trend this week.

Even if they are used to a 34, they have scored 13 ppg against those 34 defenses. That would be like saying Peyton manning has owned the texans so much they know what to expect and should beat him next time.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Apparently, the very early lines had the Texans by 9-1/2 so it has already moved down if it is now 7. The two things that concern me are: 1) the Texans have never been that good at stopping MJD and 2) we'll be the fourth straight 3-4 defense the Jags will have faced so they'll know exactly what we are doing.

IMO, Sunday was the first time all year we've played two good halves. Just because it happened once, we shouldn't assume we won't go back to our "one good half" trend this week.

Agree somewhat, but I really think you are discounting the total ineptness of the Hags offense. They are averaging 12 pts. per game....and that's a little skewed cause the hung 20 on Cincy. Probably closer to 10ish without that game.

Even if we have one of our 1st half games, which we all know is a definite possibility, I just don't see how they have the fire power to catch back up.

[Keith]

Exactly.

I think the Texans cover easily. They are typically a fast-start team which ought to make the Jags think pass too early. I like the offense to jump out quickly in the first half and for the defense to express themselves in the second.

This is battle red day.... I doubt the team suffers any sort of letdown after the Titans win, though I could see the Jags going through the motions here after their business with the Ravens.

[Arky]

I guess we'll see Sunday....

Interesting to note, the spread is not moving. Still 9.5 to 10.5. Walt has 57% of the money coming in on Houston. Though a small sample size @ 2,000, this tells me the general public might have more faith in the Texans covering that some of us do....

There's a phenomenon in the betting world that happens sometimes.... Last week, when the Titans were favored by 3, right before kickoff, I saw two of the sportsbooks (5Dimes and Sportbet) drop to Titans by 1.5. This means a huge amount of money came in for Houston at the last minute. When you see something like that, you can bet (pun intended) it is pro-gamblers/sharps wagering on what they think is a lock. When I saw that, I thought "Texans might just win today".....