Did you know Connor Barwin led all Rookie DLinemen in Sacks ?

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I dunno, there must be a facility (maybe Vegas has something) or other forum for betting the Texans DON'T draft a back with their first round pick ?
Kubiak learned from his mentor in Denver you only invest the bare minimum in a back when you know he's just one play away from a season-ending injury. Oh I know they took Portis in the second round back in the day, but that's about as much as they use a Draft pick on for a back IMO. Just look at all the damaged/injured players they had last year within their own running back corps - anyone of those guys could be this years first round pick if they were to draft a back that high.
Even if it's a reach, use that first rounder on a player with real positional value like CB or DLine or OLine and get your back in the mid or late rounds - afterall they're a dime a dozen anyway.

While this is clearly the conventional wisdom, has anyone actually seen a quote from Shanahan, Kubiak or anyone else who was high up the Denver food chain who has actually stated, on the record, that this was their draft strategy and they willfully ignored RBs in the 1st round? I’ve not seen one and I wonder if this thinking has taken on a life of its own far greater than anything that was actually going on in Denver (or is currently going on in Houston).

Shanahan was with Denver from 1995 through 2008. In 1995, they drafted Terrell Davis. They hit the jackpot with him and he performed great through 1998. Through those years, it’s hardly a surprise that they didn’t use a 1st rounder (or anything more than a late rounder) on a RB. Nevertheless, they did spend a 3rd rounder in 1996 and a 5th rounder in 1998 on RBs. After TD fell off in 1999, they used a 4th rounder in 1999 draft (Olandis Gary) and a 6th rounder in 2000 (Mike Anderson). These guys performed OK for a couple of years. However, they then used a 2nd rounder in 2002 (Portis), a 4th rounder in 2003 (Griffin), and a 2nd rounder again in 2004 (Tatum Bell). That doesn’t strike as a concerted effort to avoid drafting running backs high but just reflects the team’s needs at the time. In all, Shanahan had no reason to use a 1st on a RB during the TD years. After TD’s injuries slowed him, they got by for a couple years with Gary and Anderson and then used 2 high draft picks (both 2nds) to draft Portis and Bell. Sounds like pretty standard drafting.

For comparison sake, here are the 1st round picks sorted by team - http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...pe=roundbyteam. The Redskins haven’t used a 1st rounder on a RB since 1967. The Eagles haven’t since 1986. Green Bay, the Jets and the 49ers hasn’t since 1990. Pittsburgh went 1989-2008 without drafting a RB in the 1st. The Cowboys went from 1990 -2008. The Raiders went 1995-2008 without drafting a RB. Tennessee went from 1996-2008. Detroit went 1989-2004.

Finally, didn’t the Texans acknowledge that they tried to trade back up into the 1st round a couple of years ago to get DeAngelo Williams? I think the “Shanahan/Kubiak/Denver-system guys will never draft a back high because they can find someone in the later rounds” is way overblown. RB is clearly a position of need and if a guy they graded out to be the best player available is there, I have little doubt that they will take him.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Joshua

I wonder if this thinking has taken on a life of its own far greater than anything that was actually going on in Denver (or is currently going on in Houston).

I think the “Shanahan/Kubiak/Denver-system guys will never draft a back high because they can find someone in the later rounds” is way overblown. RB is clearly a position of need and if a guy they graded out to be the best player available is there, I have little doubt that they will take him.

That's some mighty fine analysis. However, I am wondering if C.J. Spiller is available at #20. Otherwise, I think that waiting until the 2nd round is the way to go or maybe even the 3rd.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by Roy P

That's some mighty fine analysis. However, I am wondering if C.J. Spiller is available at #20. Otherwise, I think that waiting until the 2nd round is the way to go or maybe even the 3rd.

I certainly don't disagree with that. As I'm not a draft guru guy, I'll leave it to others to opine on who would be the best pick for us, whatever position that might be. I just find the notion that every position is in play except for punters, kickers, and running backs in the 1st round is highly unlikely. Particularly when that belief is based on something that happened 10 years ago and the immediate past (i.e., Gary's 4 years here) suggests he can't just plug in anybody.

[Joe Joe]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Detroit went 1989-2004.

Not a good example. There were still WRs on the board.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Joe Joe

Not a good example. There were still WRs on the board.

That's funny.

[chuck]

We all know that you can get productive RBs later if you know what you're doing. We all know that many if not most of the elite RBs in the league today were taken in the first round. The question is can you afford to take an elite RB in the first. RBs have a limited shelf life. Had the Texans taken an RB with their first pick in 2003, McGahee, for example, that poor bastard would be in a wheelchair now.

Where's the value? Will the right first round RB put the team over the hump and into the playoffs? Will that RB blossom into full productivity when the rest of the team is peaking, too? Or should the team look to address other areas of weakness this year while hoping to luck into a star in the 4th (which they've done before) and thinking that they should be able to reach for a back next year?

I think it boils down to BPA at the three or four positions of desperate need once the pick rolls around.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by chuck

We all know that you can get productive RBs later if you know what you're doing. We all know that many if not most of the elite RBs in the league today were taken in the first round. The question is can you afford to take an elite RB in the first. RBs have a limited shelf life. Had the Texans taken an RB with their first pick in 2003, McGahee, for example, that poor bastard would be in a wheelchair now.

Where's the value? Will the right first round RB put the team over the hump and into the playoffs? Will that RB blossom into full productivity when the rest of the team is peaking, too? Or should the team look to address other areas of weakness this year while hoping to luck into a star in the 4th (which they've done before) and thinking that they should be able to reach for a back next year?

I think it boils down to BPA at the three or four positions of desperate need once the pick rolls around.

Great post.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by chuck

We all know that you can get productive RBs later if you know what you're doing. We all know that many if not most of the elite RBs in the league today were taken in the first round. The question is can you afford to take an elite RB in the first. RBs have a limited shelf life. Had the Texans taken an RB with their first pick in 2003, McGahee, for example, that poor bastard would be in a wheelchair now.

In busines/economics terminology that's called "opportunity cost", i.e., in this context what is the cost of forgoing the opportunity to use the very valuable first-round pick to select a player of higher positional value like CB, LT, etc. than using it on a running back ?

[NBT]

I think Chuck pretty well hits the nail on the head. Who is to say we don't already have our RB in Arian Foster or one of the taxi squad people from last year?

What I am beginning to come around to is that we should hope to wait and get Earl Thomas at the much needed FS spot with the 20th pick. I would even consider trading up 3 or 4 spots in order to snatch him. If that doesn't happen, I would keep my options open and possibly even trade down if the right deal came along. Flexibilty is the key.

[Nconroe]

Yep, and we got some new Offensive coordinators an OL coaches who might just make our running game better via scheme, coaching methods, fresh approach, as well. Maybe an upgraded and more experienced and healthy OL as well. Even healthy RB's returning.