Playoff possibilities & why Houston should be more optimisitc

[Fonz the Boss]

Jets lost today and Miami lost against the Titans. Now they are all even at 7-7.... I hope the Colts go for the undefeated season so they can bring their A game vs the Jets. If we beat Miami then we go ahead of them. What about the Titans? If they end up 9-7 also then who gets the advantage? Hard to believe the Titans are 7-7 after 0-6. That team is gonna be a tough one to beat if they make the playoffs.

Teams in playoff hunt that are still playing right now are the Ravens and the Steelers

[HPF Bob]

Essentially, we are one game behind Denver and Baltimore and tied with a bunch of teams at 7-7. This gets pretty easy to figure:

Win both remaining games and hope the tiebreakers shake out in your favor. That'll be tough because some teams (Jacksonville and Tennessee included) have the tiebreakers over us. But anything can happen when the NFL calculators start crankin'.

[TheMatrix31]

Hopefully someone can re-crank out the possibilities. I just like to know what would have to happen, even though I know it's not gonna happen.

[itssharif]

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

Hopefully someone can re-crank out the possibilities. I just like to know what would have to happen, even though I know it's not gonna happen.

The situation has now basically come to this. The Texans have to ABSOLUTELY WIN on Sunday against Miami. If that can happen that win can do 2 things. 1) of course the obvious improve our own record but 2) it would clinch the division for New England no matter their outcomes. Now comes the tricky part. The Jets CANNOT win out. If they do they have a very strong conference mark and will virtually eliminate everybody else who is 9-7 EXCEPT the Jaguars. So with that being said we need a loss from both of those teams for sure. Another loss is needed from Tennessee because they own the division tie breaker with us. The only scenario we beat out Denver is if they lose out. Now the final part that is a little tricky is the Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh scenarios. The situation is as follows. Cincinnati owns the tie breaker within the division (which is the 1st tie breaker applied always) so the only way for them to get beaten out is by the benefit of a greater record. Technically Baltimore is the only team that can viably achieve that in the AFC North. That being said if Baltimore is to win out so that we could utilize our advantage over Cincy courtesy of the head to head we own against them; Cincy would have to lose vs. KC and then again at N.Y Jets. Because the Jets hold a lot of the cards (of the potential 9-7 teams) it is actually NOT beneficial for us to somehow end up in this scenario because along with the sheer unlikelyhood of it even happenning there are still a number of scenarios that could work against us so I'm considering this scenario as incredibly unlikely (and probably just down right not beneficial for us) even though it technically can still happen. The more likely scenario of the AFC North is if Cincy wins in week 16 against KC and Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh (this game is a huge toss up and very much up for debate but I think it is very possible for Pittsburgh to pull this off). The only tie breaker we possess against any of the other 7-7 teams is against Pittsburgh ONLY (meaning we can not be tied to any other teams at the time of us being tied to Pittsburgh). So with all this being said if I could have a perfect scenario after Week 16's set of games it would all end up like this:

Scenario 1 (my opinion of easier and more likelier path)

Week 16
Houston beats Miami (MOST IMPORTANT)
Indy beats Jets
NE beats Jax
Phi beats Den
SD beats Ten
Pit beats Bal

That would leave the wild card looking as such:

5- Baltimore (8-7)
6- Denver (8-7)
7- Houston (8-7)
8- Pittsburgh (8-7)

Then that would basically leave us praying for both the Win against New England AND loss to Baltimore via Oakland OR a loss to Denver via Kansas City.

Scenario 2 (less likely to happen)

Week 16
Houston beats Miami (MOST IMPORTANT)
Indy beats Jets
NE beats Jax
Phi beats Den
SD beats Ten
Bal beats Pit
KC beats Cin

That would leave the wild card looking as such:

4- Cincinnati (9-6)
5- Baltimore (9-6)
6- Denver (8-7)
7- Houston (8-7)

In this case again WE NEED TO WIN and then root for either a KC win OR a Baltimore win AND a Cincy loss.

The only thing I like going for us is that the Week 16 schedule just looks overall favorable for us IF we can just make sure to win (God please don't let the Texans screw this up). I know I can see very loseable games for our other in the hunt and wild card contenders and it can end up making for a very memorable final game of the regular season. Again to simplify for all we need wild card contenders to lose out and only possess 2 potential tie breakers in a win out scenario. One of which is not very likely to be used (over Cincy) and the other of which (over Pittsburgh) can only happen if they win out. Just believe guys. Pray and believe!

[Fonz the Boss]

Thankfully it all starts this Friday with the Chargers vs Titans game.

[cadams]

So, for those of us that enjoy torment, here is what we need to happen this weekend to have the best shot at a playoff spot going into next weekend:

all the "favorites" win, with the exception of the the titans (yes, i can't believe they are favored). this means philly over denver, pitt over the ravens, nwe over jax, and indy over the jets . . .and of course the texans must win. if all those things happen (which is definitely possible) then the texans go into the last game of the season needing to win their game AND needing a loss by denver to kc or baltimore to oakland.

this is much more than a long shot, but i think it is the best possible scenario for the texans to have a chance. it would also make for the most exciting final weekend in franchise history. needing a win, and rooting for one of two teams to lose in order to go to the playoffs.

[Big Texas]

Originally Posted by itssharif

Scenario 1 (my opinion of easier and more likelier path)

Week 16
Houston beats Miami (MOST IMPORTANT)
Indy beats Jets
NE beats Jax
Phi beats Den
SD beats Ten
Pit beats Bal

That would leave the wild card looking as such:

5- Baltimore (8-7)
6- Denver (8-7)
7- Houston (8-7)
8- Pittsburgh (8-7)

Then that would basically leave us praying for both the Win against New England AND loss to Baltimore via Oakland OR a loss to Denver via Kansas City.

First and foremost, we NEED to win. If we play the way we played against St. Louis we are gonna get blown out. Yes we have the talent to win. But we just are not rising like we should.

As far as the win scenarios. Oakland beating Baltimore is probably not likely. However, KC (specifically JCharles) definitely has the potential to beat Denver. However, at the beginning of the year we were hoping that NE would be resting its starters. It definitely does not look likely. So we NEED to bring our A++++ games for the next two weeks. And not for one half either. We need to see a determined team. If not, I dont even want to see them get demolished in the playoffs.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Big Texas

As far as the win scenarios. Oakland beating Baltimore is probably not likely.

Tell that to Denver and Pittsburgh.....

Any given Sunday man, it rings true each and every year.

Besides, we are due for some luck for a change.....right?

[edo783]

Basically, it's a win or go home situation for us. Then we need to do it again. Good thing I'm not some old guy who might have a weak heart. Oh, wait.......

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Fonz the Boss

What about the Titans? If they end up 9-7 also then who gets the advantage?

Of course we split on head-to-head games with them, but I understand they come out ahead on the next tie-breaker (either division/conference record ?).
Their next game is SD, but it's in Nashville and not the WC.

[Fonz the Boss]

Games this coming week

- Jets(7-7) @ Indy- Hopefully the Colts go for the undefeated season

- Ravens (8-6) @ Pittsburgh (7-7)- Who should we be rooting for here? And why?

- Chargers @ Titans (7-7)- This game is on Friday and the Chargers are undefeated in December since 2006. Hopefully that streak continues.

- Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots- Im hoping that the good Patriots show up for this game.

- Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles- Broncos are on a downslide so they can probably lose this game also.

- Texans (7-7) @ Miami (7-7)- Dolphins are probably pissed by the way they lost so this is gonna be a tough game. This game is HUGE for the Texans so i hope they dont vlow it.

All we have to do is win one game at a time.... It starts with Miami

[WMH]

CBS Sportsline runs thru all the scenarios.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standin...race/scenarios

Our tiebreaker situation is horrendous.......IF we win these last two. I think both wild cards will end up 9-7, but division/conference record....not so good for the home team.

BUT, there is a chance

[Nconroe]

perhaps an unlikely scenario is if we win our last two and everyone but Baltimore Ravens looses two we might have a chance. Otherwise, do we hold a tie breaker over anybody? actually everyone would have to loose atleast one and Denver has to loose two. ah, anyways, slim chance but its possible.

[popanot]

On one hand it's nice still being in the running this late in the season despite the long odds. But on the other hand, it's extremely frustrating that this team couldn't just take care of business early on and taken advantage of a fairly easy schedule and year in which the non-Division leaders in the AFC all suck. This season was our best chance ever at making the playoffs.

[Keith]

I haven't seen this discussed much so I am probably wrong, but Cincinnati losing their next two games (which are vsKC and @NYJ, so probably not likely) could be beneficial to the Texans as well since the Texans beat the Bengals this year. Right? The head-to-head tiebreaker here might not be as helpful though since there will likely be more than two teams at 9-7.

Makes me wonder if the Ravens winning over the Steelers might be not such a bad thing if the Bengals somehow find a way to keep their losing streak going against the Chiefs then Jets (assuming the Jets also lose to Indy this weekend).

Ugh, I feel a headache coming on.

[Señor Stan]

Originally Posted by Keith

I haven't seen this discussed much so I am probably wrong, but Cincinnati losing their next two games (which are vsKC and @NYJ, so probably not likely) could be beneficial to the Texans as well since the Texans beat the Bengals this year. Right? The head-to-head tiebreaker here might not be as helpful though since there will likely be more than two teams at 9-7.

Makes me wonder if the Ravens winning over the Steelers might be not such a bad thing if the Bengals somehow find a way to keep their losing streak going against the Chiefs then Jets (assuming the Jets also lose to Indy this weekend).

Ugh, I feel a headache coming on.

Warning...Productivity Killer by Yahoo....Prepare to waste the rest of your day.

Allows you to pick winners and generate playoff scenarios. Here is my personal favorite...Texans as the 5 seed and Dallas out of the playoffs.


Sweetness
.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by popanot

On one hand it's nice still being in the running this late in the season despite the long odds. But on the other hand, it's extremely frustrating that this team couldn't just take care of business early on and taken advantage of a fairly easy schedule and year in which the non-Division leaders in the AFC all suck. This season was our best chance ever at making the playoffs.

While I agree with you, the fact that we are even in the conversation is a step in the right direction. Who would have thunk that Pitt, Baltimore and Denver (considering thier start), and TN (considering thier start too) is even in the mix.

Parity gentlemen, that is what the NFL wants, and that is exactly what we have.

[Nconroe]

And, though unlikely we get to playoffs, first time since 93 Houston has had a team in the conversation for a playoff spot in the NFL. And there are like 13 other team in NFL who can't say that. And 9-7 Cardinals made it to SuperBowl last year. So, come on team, you gotta win the part we can control and see what happens.