Owen Daniels Contract Negotiations

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Keith

I don't mean to be blunt, but this is sorta the point: Welcome to 2009. The NFL's barometer for salaries increases significantly every year.

And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too.



Yes, this interpretation worries me some. Are some fans damning him because they perceive the Texans as employers of a TE-friendly offense?

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2006 Tony Scheffler 18-286-4
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4

You have to go back to Shannon Sharpe before you find numbers as good as Daniels'. And Sharpe's stood out among other Bronco TEs, i.e. Sharpe is the reason Sharpe was good, not just the TE-friendly offense. He was a Hall of Fame finalist this year.

Daniels has out-performed Putzier and Scheffler, the former who knew the offense better when he arrived in Houston three years ago, and the latter who was picked two rounds before Daniels. Maybe Daniels is the reason Daniels is good?

I am hopeful Casey is Daniels v2.0. Actually, I think Dreesen gets a chance before Casey. But no one knows for sure how good they can be and how soon.

btw, an extension or a re-worked contract isn't out of the question for Angry Dre, especially if his deal falls out of the top 10 or something.

Interesting analysis, Keith. I especially liked the full article treatment on the front-page. I'm not sure I quite ready to agree with it, but it provided good food for thought. And any analysis that actually provokes thought gets a two thumbs up from me

My thoughts are that Owen Daniels is a good tight end (maybe even very good) but not elite. Essentially a Todd Heap-type rather than an Antonio Gates - certainly nothing to sneeze at and better than most of the league, but not a scary guy. And I'm not sure whether I would want to allocate significant cap resources to a tight end unless they were all-world (and whomever Daniels signs his next contract with will surely be allocating some serious coinage.) Going back to the table you posted on the front page, I come to a slightly different conclusion about the table you posted.

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0

I'm not so sure that those numbers don't point to a tight-end friendly offense. First off, it should be noted that Desmond Clark was also a significant portion of their offense in 2000 and 2001, putting up 339 and 566 yards respectively in those years. So another version of Denver TE production could be expressed like so:

Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0 + Desmond Clark 27-339-3 = 64-820-3
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6 + Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4 = 85-865-10
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3 + Carswell 21-189-1 = 82-875-4
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8 + Carswell 6-53-1 = 68-823-9
2004* Jeb Putzier 36-572-2 + Carswell 22-198-1 = 58-770-3
2005* Jeb Putzier 37-481-0 + Stephen Alexander 27-170-1 = 64-651-1

*H-Back/FB/TE Kyle Johnson also contributed 9-126-2 in '04 and 17-160-5 in '05, but, as the slashes indicate, considering him just a TE is problematic.

Texans TEs:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5 + Putzier 13-125-0 = 47-477-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3 + Putzier/Dreesen 10-94-3 = 73-862-6
2008 Daniels 70-862-2 + Dreesen 11-77-0 = 81-939-2

There are a few things I take away from this grouping. One is that OD provides the lion's share of the Texans TE production. In contrast, the Denver years have two years with split production and in the other years only once did the 2nd TE fail to pick up 170 yards. My interpretation is that this probably occurred due to a few factors. One, Daniels has been considerably better than our 2nd tight ends and has been durable enough be on the field almost all the time. The blocking TE, Bruener, the Texans have paired Daniels with was also not going to see many throws aimed his way. The other thing I notice from this grouping, though, is that the Broncos combined TE production has been similar to the Texans in the Kubiak offense. The average for the years cited for Denver TE's is 70-801-5; the average for Texans TEs is 67-759-4. If you throw out Owen's rookie year, the Texans averages are 77-900-4.

If you just compare the Bronco's top TE's to OD you get:

Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
Average: 47-593-3

Owen Daniels:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3
2008 Daniels 70-862-2
OD Avg: 56-661-3

While I think that Denver chart gives a less clear view of Denver's TE dynamic, I think it's interesting because of the players involved. Dwayne Carswell was an oversized blocking TE who would convert to the offensive line late in his career; only 3 times in his career did he exceed 200 yards receiving (the two mentioned, plus one year at 201 yards.) Desmond Clark disappeared after the 2000 and 2001 campaigns, not matching his 2001 timeshare season again until 2006 when he came out of witness protection for Ron Turner's Bears offense. Sharpe, at the end of his career, was able to average 728 yards and 5 TDs at the ages of 34 and 35 in this offense.

The worst two years on the Broncos list belong to Putzier who has only 19 receptions since the 2004-05 campaigns and couldn't even muster a decent timeshare in Houston despite knowing the system. Even Putzier averaged 525 yards in his years as the #1 TE. For a guy whose done nothing since even as he entered what should have been the prime of his career, 525 yards per year makes it seem like you should be able to plug anyone whose hands aren't made of stone into this offense and get a solid level of production.

This isn't to say that Owen hasn't been better than his Denver predecessors. He has been and I think he's been a pretty good receiving weapon for us. But I'm not sure if he's worth paying him the numbers he will likely get when we can likely get decent production for considerably less money. I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line. I'm wondering if the Texans might be thinking they might be able to match OD's production with a Casey/Hill pairing that would be similar to the Clark/Carswell grouping that combined to produce OD-like numbers. I think these next 8 months or so will be quite interesting to watch how the front office and coaching staff manage this situation.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by dadmg

I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap

I think this is the point where the argument boils down. Yours is an interesting counterpoint, and I think we possibly differ here on something of a philosophical perspective.

Average players are available and come and go. I think it was Charles Barkley who said the NBA was a league of all-stars, i.e. everyone who's good enough to make it can play at a real high level, but not everyone is special and truly capable of separating themselves from the rest of the 'stars'. The NFL is not the NBA, but I think the same perspective is applicable. Premium players are harder to find and they come at a price. Everyone is going to have different thresholds on what to pay.

And where to spend it. Just like with the expansion era Texans when the team had to answer a philosophical question about where to spend their top draft picks, position-wise (yes... if they were really going to go BPA, then they probably would not have forced a QB up their draft board in 2002 for example.) There's the franchise QB, the LT, the pass rusher, the shutdown corner... you have to go really far down that list before you get the seam-busting TE. This where I hesitate to open McNair's wallet ...if I was working under a strict budget.

Originally Posted by dadmg

and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line.

So, yes, this assumes a sort of zero sum limited capital scenario, or at least one severely stricken by salary cap limits. While this was a concern before 2009, I'm not certain it is as concerning from here forward. The next CBA will have a lot to say here. Teams have more cap room than they need this year (a few are going to struggle to spend to the floor much less the max), and as it looks right now, there won't even be a cap in 2010.

As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.

[Nconroe]

I took a similar approach with this, looking at top TE salaries in 2008 and top TE stats includingTDs in 2008. I don't know if OD has been offered a fair or long term deal or exactly where he is evaluated, but I think he need to show up for practice.
Salary looks to me like 2.9 isn't too bad for a TE and some good ones make less than that, a few make more,
Skill, is it TDs or yardage or blocking , doesn't seem like that unusually special , but pretty good.

From USA Today salary Database get this
Player Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary Cap Value
Gonzalez, Tony Chiefs $ 1,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 500,840 $ 1,500,840 $ 5,032,215
Winslow, Kellen Browns $ 4,000,000 $ 0 $ 1,607,500 $ 5,607,500 $ 4,599,584
Smith, L.J. Eagles $ 4,022,000 $ 0 $ 1,320 $ 4,023,320 $ 4,523,320
Gates, Antonio Chargers $ 3,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 840 $ 3,000,840 $ 4,200,840
Graham, Daniel Broncos $ 700,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 900,000 $ 4,150,000
Witten, Jason Cowboys $ 1,905,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 5,760 $ 1,910,760 $ 4,110,760
McMichael, Randy Rams $ 2,900,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 1,440 $ 2,901,440 $ 3,901,440
Kleinsasser, Jim Vikings $ 2,400,000 $ 0 $ 600,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 3,850,000
Heap, Todd Ravens $ 730,000 $ 2,270,000 $ 4,680 $ 3,004,680 $ 3,502,180
Davis, Vernon 49ers $ 900,000 $ 0 $ 3,775,000 $ 4,675,000 $ 3,340,000
Shiancoe, Odai Vikings $ 2,100,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 2,400,000 $ 3,200,000
Kelly, Reggie Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 2,200,000 $ 3,200,000
Miller, Zach Raiders $ 370,000 $ 965,000 $ 5,174,880 $ 5,544,880 $ 3,139,130
Cooley, Chris Redskins $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 90,000 $ 11,695,000 $ 3,028,333
Lee, Donald Packers $ 1,600,000 $ 0 $ 1,366,720 $ 2,966,720 $ 2,881,720
Utecht, Ben Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 5,040 $ 4,005,040 $ 2,671,706
Clark, Dallas Colts $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 45,000 $ 11,650,000 $ 2,483,333
Shockey, Jeremy Saints $ 1,925,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 500,000 $ 2,425,000 $ 2,425,000
Clark, Desmond Bears $ 1,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 3,506,720 $ 2,340,056
Royal, Robert Bills $ 1,675,000 $ 2,500,000 $ 152,160 $ 1,827,160 $ 2,327,160
Campbell, Dan Lions $ 1,800,000 $ 0 $ 75,000 $ 1,875,000 $ 2,315,000
Crumpler, Alge Titans $ 1,200,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 2,706,720 $ 2,056,720

Is Gonzales the top TE, hear are his stats to compare, so OD is not Gonzales. More yards and lots more TD's.

GONZALEZ’S NFL STATISTICS
RECEIVING
Year Team G-S No. Yds. Avg. LG TD
1997 Kansas City 16-0 33 368 11.2 30 2
1998 Kansas City 16-16 59 621 10.5 32 2
1999 Kansas City 15-15 76 849 11.2 73 11
2000 Kansas City 16-16 93 1,203 12.9 39 9
2001 Kansas City 16-16 73 917 12.8 36 6
2002 Kansas City 16-16 63 773 12.3 42 7
2003 Kansas City 16-16 71 916 12.9 67 10
2004 Kansas City 16-16 102 1,258 12.3 32 7
Totals 127-111 570 6,905 12.1 73 54

TE in 2008 stats - from ESPN receiver ranking
RNK NAME REC YDS AVG YPG LNG TD FUM LST
12 Tony Gonzalez TE, KAN 96 1058 11.0 66.1 35 10 0 0
25 Jason Witten TE, DAL 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 0 0
32 Owen Daniels TE, HOU 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 2 1
35 Chris Cooley TE, WAS 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 3 2
36 Dallas Clark TE, IND 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 2 1

and TE ranking from nfl.com for 2008,
Rk Player Team Pos Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st 1st% FUM
1 Tony Gonzalez KC TE 96 1,058 11.0 66.1 35 10 10 0 67 69.8 0
2 Chris Cooley WAS TE 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 7 0 43 51.8 3
3 Jason Witten DAL TE 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 14 1 50 61.7 0
4 Dallas Clark IND TE 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 13 0 41 53.2 2
5 Owen Daniels HOU TE 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 10 0 46 65.7 2
6 Antonio Gates SD TE 60 704 11.7 44.0 34 8 8 0 39 65.0 1
7 Bo Scaife TEN TE 58 561 9.7 35.1 44 2 4 1 29 50.0 1
8 Zach Miller OAK TE 56 778 13.9 48.6 63T 1 16 1 32 57.1 0
9 John Carlson SEA TE 55 627 11.4 39.2 33 5 10 0 36 65.5 0
10 Greg Olsen CHI TE 54 574 10.6 35.9 52 5 6 1 31 57.4 2
11 Jeremy Shockey NO TE 50 483 9.7 40.2 26 0 4 0 30 60.0 2
12 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 48 535 11.1 33.4 54 3 7 1 32 66.7 0
12 Heath Miller PIT TE 48 514 10.7 36.7 22 3 4 0 29 60.4 1
14 Billy Miller NO TE 45 579 12.9 38.6 41 1 11 1 30 66.7 0
15 Kellen Winslow CLE TE 43 428 10.0 42.8 30 3 3 0 25 58.1 1
16 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN TE 42 596 14.2 37.2 40 7 12 1 30 71.4 0
17 Desmond Clark CHI TE 41 367 9.0 22.9 35 1 5 0 18 43.9 1

and then ODs stats from nfl.com
Season Team Receiving Rushing Fumbles
G GS Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Att Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost
2008 Houston Texans 16 16 70 862 12.3 35 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2 1
2007 Houston Texans 16 16 63 768 12.2 29 3 -- -- -- -- -- 4 3
2006 Houston Texans 14 12 34 352 10.4 33T 5 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
TOTAL 167 1,982 11.9 35 10 0 0 0.0 0 0 6 4


Overall, sure be fair and be realistic, OD, you have good competition to make the team now.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Keith

I


So, yes, this assumes a sort of zero sum limited capital scenario, or at least one severely stricken by salary cap limits. While this was a concern before 2009, I'm not certain it is as concerning from here forward. The next CBA will have a lot to say here. Teams have more cap room than they need this year (a few are going to struggle to spend to the floor much less the max), and as it looks right now, there won't even be a cap in 2010.

When I was writing that sentence, that popped into my head and I thought about tossing in a qualifier. But, honestly, I would be surprised (not to mention very disappointed) if there was no labor agreement before the start of the off-season. The biggest problem I foresee is that the owners have more leverage (the severe restrictions on player movement and lack of a salary floor in uncapped year) but the NFLPA has a new boss and Demaurice Smith probably doesn't want to start his career being known as the guy who gave up what they got in Gene Upshaw's final negotiations (which turned out to be a windfall as he played big owners against small owners instead of against him). That worries me a little. But there's too much for both sides to lose here. So I'm keeping my fingers crossed hoping for a painless resolution even though a protracted struggle with an uncapped 2010 might benefit my team.

As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.

'twas interesting.

[kravix]

dadmg,

not to take from the conversation here, but my understanding is that there is more of a rift between the owners and profit sharing than there is with the NFLPA and the owners. I understnad that some teams couldnt come close to the cap without the CBA and why it crosses into both realms, and I understand why they cant negotiate them seperatly at this point because of revenue, but it would be nice if we had a new agreement in place with no uncapped year, and a rookie payscale.

I dont see how the rich owners dont understand that their salaries will be more than they pay in revenue sharing now if they dont agree. Football works because of the sharing, FA, and cap which gives it more parity.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by kravix

dadmg,

not to take from the conversation here, but my understanding is that there is more of a rift between the owners and profit sharing than there is with the NFLPA and the owners. I understnad that some teams couldnt come close to the cap without the CBA and why it crosses into both realms, and I understand why they cant negotiate them seperatly at this point because of revenue, but it would be nice if we had a new agreement in place with no uncapped year, and a rookie payscale.

I dont see how the rich owners dont understand that their salaries will be more than they pay in revenue sharing now if they dont agree. Football works because of the sharing, FA, and cap which gives it more parity.

Sorry, I was a bit confusing there. The rift was/is between the owners, but I've read a few articles that said Upshaw did a good job during the last round of negotiations to keep the focus on the owners rift between each other to make it more difficult for them to present a united front and bargain better against the players, which may have been how the players came away like bandits in that last round of CBA negotiations.

[cland]

In Daniels credit, I think we may be over analyzing the stats. Stats tell you a lot about your offenses scheme and offensive coaches/players success on a fairly high level. But, when you look at the TE position you have to take into account that their skills are much more about quality rather than quantity.

To put it simply, would you throw to Owen when it's 4th and 7, with the game on the line. I'd say yes, and I think Daniels has made a pretty strong case. The guy catches everything thrown his way. Dressen could probably put up %70 of Daniels numbers at %10 of the cost, but the critical game moments is when a TE earns his money.

That being said, I'll pay Daniels the top 3-4 TE money just for those critical game moments.

[Royal We Texans Off]

[barrett]

Originally Posted by cland

In Daniels credit, I think we may be over analyzing the stats. Stats tell you a lot about your offenses scheme and offensive coaches/players success on a fairly high level. But, when you look at the TE position you have to take into account that their skills are much more about quality rather than quantity.

To put it simply, would you throw to Owen when it's 4th and 7, with the game on the line. I'd say yes, and I think Daniels has made a pretty strong case. The guy catches everything thrown his way. Dressen could probably put up %70 of Daniels numbers at %10 of the cost, but the critical game moments is when a TE earns his money.

That being said, I'll pay Daniels the top 3-4 TE money just for those critical game moments.

[Royal We Texans Off]

Isn't the goalline where a TE has most of their "critical" moments? If so I can't see paying OD huge money.

My problem is I don't see OD as one of our most important players and I think if you pay him big (even in an uncapped situation), than you end up with a dozen other guys wanting big paydays.

Just among our skill position guys OD is the #4 option. How many #4 options see big paydays?