Owen Daniels Contract Negotiations

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

I don't mean to be blunt, but this is sorta the point: Welcome to 2009. The NFL's barometer for salaries increases significantly every year.

And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too.



Yes, this interpretation worries me some. Are some fans damning him because they perceive the Texans as employers of a TE-friendly offense?

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2006 Tony Scheffler 18-286-4
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4

You have to go back to Shannon Sharpe before you find numbers as good as Daniels'. And Sharpe's stood out among other Bronco TEs, i.e. Sharpe is the reason Sharpe was good, not just the TE-friendly offense. He was a Hall of Fame finalist this year.

Daniels has out-performed Putzier and Scheffler, the former who knew the offense better when he arrived in Houston three years ago, and the latter who was picked two rounds before Daniels. Maybe Daniels is the reason Daniels is good?

I am hopeful Casey is Daniels v2.0. Actually, I think Dreesen gets a chance before Casey. But no one knows for sure how good they can be and how soon.

btw, an extension or a re-worked contract isn't out of the question for Angry Dre, especially if his deal falls out of the top 10 or something.

Denver is not Houston and the offenses are not identical. Certainly not in how we run them. The rushing stats bear that out.

Our offense is far more TE friendly than Denver's, perhaps by subtle differences in design, but certainly due to Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub.

Johnson is constantly bracketed with a safety which means our TEs are constantly working in space against LBs. There is no parallel to AJ in the Denver offense, so their TEs don't have the space or success ours have.

Additionally Schaub is characterized by mediocre arm strength, good accuracy, and getting the ball out quickly. All of these factors lend themselves to the TE getting the ball. Cutler (and even Plummer before him), are total opposites.

It is not relevant what Denver TEs do when deciding how hard it is/how much talent is needed for a Houston TE to succeed. I think Daniels is a smart and tough player who is in a perfect fit to make him look far better than he is. Not to mention that even with the good stats he was ineffective in the red zone last year, fumbled too much, and is not a great blocker. He is one of my favorite Texans, but he is nowhere near a top NFL TE.

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by barrett

Denver is not Houston and the offenses are not identical. Certainly not in how we run them. The rushing stats bear that out.

Our offense is far more TE friendly than Denver's, perhaps by subtle differences in design, but certainly due to Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub.

Johnson is constantly bracketed with a safety which means our TEs are constantly working in space against LBs. There is no parallel to AJ in the Denver offense, so their TEs don't have the space or success ours have.

Additionally Schaub is characterized by mediocre arm strength, good accuracy, and getting the ball out quickly. All of these factors lend themselves to the TE getting the ball. Cutler (and even Plummer before him), are total opposites.

It is not relevant what Denver TEs do when deciding how hard it is/how much talent is needed for a Houston TE to succeed. I think Daniels is a smart and tough player who is in a perfect fit to make him look far better than he is. Not to mention that even with the good stats he was ineffective in the red zone last year, fumbled too much, and is not a great blocker. He is one of my favorite Texans, but he is nowhere near a top NFL TE.

This is exactly why I don't want Owen Daniels to get a huge contract. He's just not worth it. The guys you want to pay the most are the difference-makers. In other words, the guys who you are going to miss the most if they aren't in the game. I like Owen as a player, but it wouldn't make me really nervous if he was sitting out a game with an injury. I was never nervous when Putzier came in the game. Or even Dreesen. Any decent tight end is probably going to do pretty well in our offense. I would be far more worried if Schaub was sitting out. Or Andre Johnson. Or Slaton. Frankly, I would be more worried if Pitts was sitting out. Or Brown. Or Winston. Schaub waits a long time for routes to develop, something that benefits Owen's numbers a lot.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

Denver is not Houston and the offenses are not identical. Certainly not in how we run them. The rushing stats bear that out.

Of course they are not 'identical', but there is not a better comparison in the league than in the offensive system Denver ran, at least through the recent years when the current Texans head coach was Denver's offensive coordinator. Not to mention the Texans now have Denver's rushing guru, Alex Gibbs, as well. And please, let me stop there in the comparisons between Denver and Denver South or I'll be here all afternoon...

Originally Posted by barrett

Our offense is far more TE friendly than Denver's, perhaps by subtle differences in design, but certainly due to Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub.

Johnson is constantly bracketed with a safety which means our TEs are constantly working in space against LBs. There is no parallel to AJ in the Denver offense, so their TEs don't have the space or success ours have.

Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey were pretty effective in the offense. Squint a little and you might see some resemblences to Dre and Kevin Walter.

Originally Posted by barrett

Additionally Schaub is characterized by mediocre arm strength, good accuracy, and getting the ball out quickly. All of these factors lend themselves to the TE getting the ball. Cutler (and even Plummer before him), are total opposites.

I'm trying not to include the Cutler years as much since he joined after Kubiak hired with the Texans. But the Broncos did employ Brian Griese for several years during that time span under Kubiak. Mediocre table for one? Yes, please.

Originally Posted by barrett

It is not relevant what Denver TEs do when deciding how hard it is/how much talent is needed for a Houston TE to succeed. I think Daniels is a smart and tough player who is in a perfect fit to make him look far better than he is. Not to mention that even with the good stats he was ineffective in the red zone last year, fumbled too much, and is not a great blocker. He is one of my favorite Texans, but he is nowhere near a top NFL TE.

The Denver comparisons may or may not be relevant, but they offer a window into an alternate view of this offense. Until the day comes when there is no Daniels running routes for the team, evaluating his real effectiveness is a healthy bit of speculation on everyone's behalf, yours and mine both (and Owen's and Rick Smith's...).

It's just the idea of "fit" here that can be frustrating. Of course he is a fit, as Casey and Dreesen might be... they were added to the roster because of the expectations of their fit with the offense. Take a "better" TE like Winslow or Gates or Clark or Cooley or whoever you think is better... would those guys be that much more effective than Daniels in this system? Marginally, maybe, but it's speculation either way, so all we have to go on is what Daniels actually produced, which by his third season has been Pro Bowl-quality receiving stats.

btw, I realize Owen had a few dropsies in 2007, but Daniels had one fumble lost last year, the same as Winslow, Gates and Clark, and one less than Cooley. His new contract would pay him for production in 2009 and beyond mostly based on his 2008 performance and the potential he has based on that.

[barrett]

Keith, I agree with a lot of this. It definitely is speculation what anyone would do. I also agree that statistically we may not get much more out of any other top TE. The only thing I disagree on is that we won't get much less from any other TE not making top money.

I feel like Daniels is a very smart player who takes advantage of LB coverage and picks up lots of catches and first downs in the middle of the field. This is an important contribution and helped make our offense what it was. But when things tightened up on the goalline, he did not have the ability to either create space, or take the ball from the defender.

To me this is what the top 2-3 TEs are paid for. You have a bunch of guys paid similarly who can block a little and catch the football. Daniels should be paid at the top end of that range. Then you have a few guys paid a premium because they make their living catching TDs. Daniels cannot reasonably ask for premium money until he shows he is a redzone threat.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by barrett

I feel like Daniels is a very smart player who takes advantage of LB coverage and picks up lots of catches and first downs in the middle of the field. This is an important contribution and helped make our offense what it was. But when things tightened up on the goalline, he did not have the ability to either create space, or take the ball from the defender.

To me this is what the top 2-3 TEs are paid for. You have a bunch of guys paid similarly who can block a little and catch the football. Daniels should be paid at the top end of that range. Then you have a few guys paid a premium because they make their living catching TDs. Daniels cannot reasonably ask for premium money until he shows he is a redzone threat.

This is more of a general complaint than anything else...and more of an observation really. It's so hard to judge a players effectiveness in a certain situation as a fan because we have no way of knowing how the coaches are using them. Sure, Kubes might call for a pass near the goal line, but Daniels could be the third or fourth option on many of those plays.

I think the goal line problems start and stop with the inability to run the ball in that area of the field. Plain and simple teams weren't scared of our short yardage running game and that lets them get into pass coverage sooner. When your on a short field like that there is much less ground for the defense to cover making it easier to clog up the throwing lanes. Remember none of our WR's were very effective in redzone situations either, including AJ...if they were then we wouldn't have been third in offense, but 17th in scoring (well that plus turnovers). Scoring in the redzone was a team problem.

I haven't watched all the film to say one way or the other whether or not Owen was getting open in those situations so I can't comment on that. I'm just saying that it was a problem for our whole team and without knowing the specifics of the play calls it's hard to say one way or the other if OD was the one failing to get it done. I do know that the redzone is usually a good time to use the TE, and I've wondered why we don't use them more in that situation. Owen could definitely be part of the problem, but I think it's something that goes deeper than just one guy.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by papabear

I'm just saying that it was a problem for our whole team and without knowing the specifics of the play calls it's hard to say one way or the other if OD was the one failing to get it done.

Actually, we can say OD is not getting it done. Maybe he doesn't get the opportunities, maybe it's not his fault, but we're not talking about who is to blame for our redzone struggles. We are talking about the fact that you get paid for performance, and OD did not perform in the redzone (even if it wasn't his fault).

Originally Posted by papabear

I do know that the redzone is usually a good time to use the TE, and I've wondered why we don't use them more in that situation. Owen could definitely be part of the problem, but I think it's something that goes deeper than just one guy.

I do agree that we can't blame it all on him, as it is definitely a whole team problem. But he is clearly not part of the solution. So, I just don't think we need to pay him like he's a redzone solution.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by barrett

Actually, we can say OD is not getting it done. Maybe he doesn't get the opportunities, maybe it's not his fault, but we're not talking about who is to blame for our redzone struggles. We are talking about the fact that you get paid for performance, and OD did not perform in the redzone (even if it wasn't his fault).

Fair enough in regards to pay. I don't think that will hold much weight at the bargaining table because his overall numbers were so good. You do have a point though.

I do agree that we can't blame it all on him, as it is definitely a whole team problem. But he is clearly not part of the solution. So, I just don't think we need to pay him like he's a redzone solution.

I don't think he's being asked to be paid as a red zone solution. He's asked to be paid comparable to what other top TE's are earning. He's clearly has the stats to make that claim even without the big TD numbers.

I think the solution is the running game. I think one area where you can lay some of the blame on Owen is the running game. The TE can be crucial to the running game and blocking isn't his best attribute. I think he's gotten MUCH better in that area, but he will likely never be a dominant run blocker. In that sense Owen is part of the problem...although I would put more of the blame on the interior of the line with Myers and Briesel IMO.

speaking of, I've got really high hopes for Caldwell. I think he's got a chance to give us a little more meat in the short yardage game, while still being able to handle the zone scheme.

I just have a hard time believing that Owen can be a top 5 (top 10 if that makes you happier) TE in the league for over 80 yards, but be a waste of space in the last 20. I would hate for the Texans to sign him to a deal that puts them in a position to not have the opportunity to sign another player later. Being able to make the tough calls on productive players in regards to how much salary is too much is what turns good teams into dynasties. I'm just not confident enough if our front office/coaching staff that we can cast off productive players and consistently find cheaper options who don't cause a drop in production...yet.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by papabear

Fair enough in regards to pay. I don't think that will hold much weight at the bargaining table because his overall numbers were so good. You do have a point though.



I don't think he's being asked to be paid as a red zone solution. He's asked to be paid comparable to what other top TE's are earning. He's clearly has the stats to make that claim even without the big TD numbers.

I think the solution is the running game. I think one area where you can lay some of the blame on Owen is the running game. The TE can be crucial to the running game and blocking isn't his best attribute. I think he's gotten MUCH better in that area, but he will likely never be a dominant run blocker. In that sense Owen is part of the problem...although I would put more of the blame on the interior of the line with Myers and Briesel IMO.

speaking of, I've got really high hopes for Caldwell. I think he's got a chance to give us a little more meat in the short yardage game, while still being able to handle the zone scheme.

I just have a hard time believing that Owen can be a top 5 (top 10 if that makes you happier) TE in the league for over 80 yards, but be a waste of space in the last 20. I would hate for the Texans to sign him to a deal that puts them in a position to not have the opportunity to sign another player later. Being able to make the tough calls on productive players in regards to how much salary is too much is what turns good teams into dynasties. I'm just not confident enough if our front office/coaching staff that we can cast off productive players and consistently find cheaper options who don't cause a drop in production...yet.

I agree that the interior line is most at fault in the redzone. Then probably our RB situation, and OD only after that.

While I still feel I wouldn't pay him huge, this is probably a case of offseason over-analysis as much as anything.