Owen Daniels Contract Negotiations

[Keith]

Originally Posted by edo783

I think he said "Agent Group". Given that, these guys might be from the same firm, just different agents, but operating on some sort of group think. Not sure if that is it or not, just tossing it out there.

Yes, all three are agents from the firm Sportstars, Inc.

btw, Owen had this to say on Monday night via Facebook:

I'm still hopeful we can get a long term deal done. I'm a reasonable person and will absolutely accept a fair deal. The monetary value of the deal means less to me than the fairness of it. (i.e. to me a te deal that is two years old is no longer relevant.)

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Keith

Yes, all three are agents from the firm Sportstars, Inc.

btw, Owen had this to say on Monday night via Facebook:

what that says to me is that the Texans are saying Winslows deal is unreasonable and we are not going to use that as a basis for a contract with Owen. O.D. is saying that's market value for a top TE right now.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by papabear

what that says to me is that the Texans are saying Winslows deal is unreasonable and we are not going to use that as a basis for a contract with Owen. O.D. is saying that's market value for a top TE right now.

You are probably right. While we may or may not think Winslow's deal is reasonable, Daniels' camp is right to reference it in the negotiations imo.

The Texans, however, still have the leverage here, especially in the absence of a new CBA. Daniels is a RFA, and there is little he can do to push his point assuming he'll cease his life as a holdout at some point. The question is just going to be how far apart the two parties are.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Keith

You are probably right. While we may or may not think Winslow's deal is reasonable, Daniels' camp is right to reference it in the negotiations imo.

The Texans, however, still have the leverage here, especially in the absence of a new CBA. Daniels is a RFA, and there is little he can do to push his point assuming he'll cease his life as a holdout at some point. The question is just going to be how far apart the two parties are.

I dunno, but it seems stunning to me how far Owen Daniels and his agents got ahead of themselves on this deal and I honestly think his demands are totally unreasonable if not outragous if he's thinking anything like 20 M guaranteed. As I recall AJ only got about 15 M in guaranteed money on his new deal just a couple years ago ?
Daniels is a good TE, but not in the league of Gonzales or Gates or others and he appears to have a very inflated idea of his value to the team. If he got what these reports seem to imply he's after, just imagine what the Texans would have to cough up for DeMeco (not to mention Mario, Shaub, & others down the road). And of course they'd have to rewrite AJs deal.
And they just drafted 2 more TEs this year and Dressen isn't a bad backup for OD, while being at 260 quite a bit bigger than OD. Now that OD has signed
his tender, isn't he ripe as trade bait ? I'd consider trading him for a high 2nd, and be all over any 1st round pick.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I dunno, but it seems stunning to me how far Owen Daniels and his agents got ahead of themselves on this deal and I honestly think his demands are totally unreasonable if not outragous if he's thinking anything like 20 M guaranteed. As I recall AJ only got about 15 M in guaranteed money on his new deal just a couple years ago ?
Daniels is a good TE, but not in the league of Gonzales or Gates or others and he appears to have a very inflated idea of his value to the team. If he got what these reports seem to imply he's after, just imagine what the Texans would have to cough up for DeMeco (not to mention Mario, Shaub, & others down the road). And of course they'd have to rewrite AJs deal.
And they just drafted 2 more TEs this year and Dressen isn't a bad backup for OD, while being at 260 quite a bit bigger than OD. Now that OD has signed
his tender, isn't he ripe as trade bait ? I'd consider trading him for a high 2nd, and be all over any 1st round pick.

I think all of this explains why we drafted Casey. It would appear we are hoping that Daniels can be replaced in what is a very TE friendly offense.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

... just a couple years ago ?

I don't mean to be blunt, but this is sorta the point: Welcome to 2009. The NFL's barometer for salaries increases significantly every year.

And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too.

Originally Posted by barrett

It would appear we are hoping that Daniels can be replaced in what is a very TE friendly offense.

Yes, this interpretation worries me some. Are some fans damning him because they perceive the Texans as employers of a TE-friendly offense?

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2006 Tony Scheffler 18-286-4
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4

You have to go back to Shannon Sharpe before you find numbers as good as Daniels'. And Sharpe's stood out among other Bronco TEs, i.e. Sharpe is the reason Sharpe was good, not just the TE-friendly offense. He was a Hall of Fame finalist this year.

Daniels has out-performed Putzier and Scheffler, the former who knew the offense better when he arrived in Houston three years ago, and the latter who was picked two rounds before Daniels. Maybe Daniels is the reason Daniels is good?

I am hopeful Casey is Daniels v2.0. Actually, I think Dreesen gets a chance before Casey. But no one knows for sure how good they can be and how soon.

btw, an extension or a re-worked contract isn't out of the question for Angry Dre, especially if his deal falls out of the top 10 or something.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Keith

And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too.

He was Will Demps II, a guy who was a substitute on the Pro-Bowl team a couple years ago who didn't get to make the trip and was later cut by the Texans and is no longer even on the team. He may be out of football for all I know ?
As a sub Daniels got lucky when Gates or somebody cancelled out and he went to Hawaii and actually got in the game, caught a couple passes, even a TD pass. For being a lucky sub he's now worth 20 M guaranteed ?
On the other hand I say pay DeMeco, really whatever it takes because he's our best D player (sorry Mario), and the leader of the D ?

[papabear]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

He was Will Demps II, a guy who was a substitute on the Pro-Bowl team a couple years ago who didn't get to make the trip and was later cut by the Texans and is no longer even on the team. He may be out of football for all I know ?
As a sub Daniels got lucky when Gates or somebody cancelled out and he went to Hawaii and actually got in the game, caught a couple passes, even a TD pass. For being a lucky sub he's now worth 20 M guaranteed ?
On the other hand I say pay DeMeco, really whatever it takes because he's our best D player (sorry Mario), and the leader of the D ?

a pro bowl nod is almost as worthless as a golden glove. The biggest difference between Will and Owen is that many people thought Owen deserved to go before an injury got him there. With Will everyone was absolutely SHOCKED that Will was even in the conversation.

If you want to get mad at anyone get mad at Tampa Bay for giving Winslow all that money.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

I don't mean to be blunt, but this is sorta the point: Welcome to 2009. The NFL's barometer for salaries increases significantly every year.

And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too.



Yes, this interpretation worries me some. Are some fans damning him because they perceive the Texans as employers of a TE-friendly offense?

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2006 Tony Scheffler 18-286-4
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4

You have to go back to Shannon Sharpe before you find numbers as good as Daniels'. And Sharpe's stood out among other Bronco TEs, i.e. Sharpe is the reason Sharpe was good, not just the TE-friendly offense. He was a Hall of Fame finalist this year.

Daniels has out-performed Putzier and Scheffler, the former who knew the offense better when he arrived in Houston three years ago, and the latter who was picked two rounds before Daniels. Maybe Daniels is the reason Daniels is good?

I am hopeful Casey is Daniels v2.0. Actually, I think Dreesen gets a chance before Casey. But no one knows for sure how good they can be and how soon.

btw, an extension or a re-worked contract isn't out of the question for Angry Dre, especially if his deal falls out of the top 10 or something.

Denver is not Houston and the offenses are not identical. Certainly not in how we run them. The rushing stats bear that out.

Our offense is far more TE friendly than Denver's, perhaps by subtle differences in design, but certainly due to Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub.

Johnson is constantly bracketed with a safety which means our TEs are constantly working in space against LBs. There is no parallel to AJ in the Denver offense, so their TEs don't have the space or success ours have.

Additionally Schaub is characterized by mediocre arm strength, good accuracy, and getting the ball out quickly. All of these factors lend themselves to the TE getting the ball. Cutler (and even Plummer before him), are total opposites.

It is not relevant what Denver TEs do when deciding how hard it is/how much talent is needed for a Houston TE to succeed. I think Daniels is a smart and tough player who is in a perfect fit to make him look far better than he is. Not to mention that even with the good stats he was ineffective in the red zone last year, fumbled too much, and is not a great blocker. He is one of my favorite Texans, but he is nowhere near a top NFL TE.

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by barrett

Denver is not Houston and the offenses are not identical. Certainly not in how we run them. The rushing stats bear that out.

Our offense is far more TE friendly than Denver's, perhaps by subtle differences in design, but certainly due to Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub.

Johnson is constantly bracketed with a safety which means our TEs are constantly working in space against LBs. There is no parallel to AJ in the Denver offense, so their TEs don't have the space or success ours have.

Additionally Schaub is characterized by mediocre arm strength, good accuracy, and getting the ball out quickly. All of these factors lend themselves to the TE getting the ball. Cutler (and even Plummer before him), are total opposites.

It is not relevant what Denver TEs do when deciding how hard it is/how much talent is needed for a Houston TE to succeed. I think Daniels is a smart and tough player who is in a perfect fit to make him look far better than he is. Not to mention that even with the good stats he was ineffective in the red zone last year, fumbled too much, and is not a great blocker. He is one of my favorite Texans, but he is nowhere near a top NFL TE.

This is exactly why I don't want Owen Daniels to get a huge contract. He's just not worth it. The guys you want to pay the most are the difference-makers. In other words, the guys who you are going to miss the most if they aren't in the game. I like Owen as a player, but it wouldn't make me really nervous if he was sitting out a game with an injury. I was never nervous when Putzier came in the game. Or even Dreesen. Any decent tight end is probably going to do pretty well in our offense. I would be far more worried if Schaub was sitting out. Or Andre Johnson. Or Slaton. Frankly, I would be more worried if Pitts was sitting out. Or Brown. Or Winston. Schaub waits a long time for routes to develop, something that benefits Owen's numbers a lot.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

Denver is not Houston and the offenses are not identical. Certainly not in how we run them. The rushing stats bear that out.

Of course they are not 'identical', but there is not a better comparison in the league than in the offensive system Denver ran, at least through the recent years when the current Texans head coach was Denver's offensive coordinator. Not to mention the Texans now have Denver's rushing guru, Alex Gibbs, as well. And please, let me stop there in the comparisons between Denver and Denver South or I'll be here all afternoon...

Originally Posted by barrett

Our offense is far more TE friendly than Denver's, perhaps by subtle differences in design, but certainly due to Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub.

Johnson is constantly bracketed with a safety which means our TEs are constantly working in space against LBs. There is no parallel to AJ in the Denver offense, so their TEs don't have the space or success ours have.

Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey were pretty effective in the offense. Squint a little and you might see some resemblences to Dre and Kevin Walter.

Originally Posted by barrett

Additionally Schaub is characterized by mediocre arm strength, good accuracy, and getting the ball out quickly. All of these factors lend themselves to the TE getting the ball. Cutler (and even Plummer before him), are total opposites.

I'm trying not to include the Cutler years as much since he joined after Kubiak hired with the Texans. But the Broncos did employ Brian Griese for several years during that time span under Kubiak. Mediocre table for one? Yes, please.

Originally Posted by barrett

It is not relevant what Denver TEs do when deciding how hard it is/how much talent is needed for a Houston TE to succeed. I think Daniels is a smart and tough player who is in a perfect fit to make him look far better than he is. Not to mention that even with the good stats he was ineffective in the red zone last year, fumbled too much, and is not a great blocker. He is one of my favorite Texans, but he is nowhere near a top NFL TE.

The Denver comparisons may or may not be relevant, but they offer a window into an alternate view of this offense. Until the day comes when there is no Daniels running routes for the team, evaluating his real effectiveness is a healthy bit of speculation on everyone's behalf, yours and mine both (and Owen's and Rick Smith's...).

It's just the idea of "fit" here that can be frustrating. Of course he is a fit, as Casey and Dreesen might be... they were added to the roster because of the expectations of their fit with the offense. Take a "better" TE like Winslow or Gates or Clark or Cooley or whoever you think is better... would those guys be that much more effective than Daniels in this system? Marginally, maybe, but it's speculation either way, so all we have to go on is what Daniels actually produced, which by his third season has been Pro Bowl-quality receiving stats.

btw, I realize Owen had a few dropsies in 2007, but Daniels had one fumble lost last year, the same as Winslow, Gates and Clark, and one less than Cooley. His new contract would pay him for production in 2009 and beyond mostly based on his 2008 performance and the potential he has based on that.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Keith

I don't mean to be blunt, but this is sorta the point: Welcome to 2009. The NFL's barometer for salaries increases significantly every year.

And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too.



Yes, this interpretation worries me some. Are some fans damning him because they perceive the Texans as employers of a TE-friendly offense?

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2006 Tony Scheffler 18-286-4
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4

You have to go back to Shannon Sharpe before you find numbers as good as Daniels'. And Sharpe's stood out among other Bronco TEs, i.e. Sharpe is the reason Sharpe was good, not just the TE-friendly offense. He was a Hall of Fame finalist this year.

Daniels has out-performed Putzier and Scheffler, the former who knew the offense better when he arrived in Houston three years ago, and the latter who was picked two rounds before Daniels. Maybe Daniels is the reason Daniels is good?

I am hopeful Casey is Daniels v2.0. Actually, I think Dreesen gets a chance before Casey. But no one knows for sure how good they can be and how soon.

btw, an extension or a re-worked contract isn't out of the question for Angry Dre, especially if his deal falls out of the top 10 or something.

Interesting analysis, Keith. I especially liked the full article treatment on the front-page. I'm not sure I quite ready to agree with it, but it provided good food for thought. And any analysis that actually provokes thought gets a two thumbs up from me

My thoughts are that Owen Daniels is a good tight end (maybe even very good) but not elite. Essentially a Todd Heap-type rather than an Antonio Gates - certainly nothing to sneeze at and better than most of the league, but not a scary guy. And I'm not sure whether I would want to allocate significant cap resources to a tight end unless they were all-world (and whomever Daniels signs his next contract with will surely be allocating some serious coinage.) Going back to the table you posted on the front page, I come to a slightly different conclusion about the table you posted.

Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5

Bronco Leading TEs:
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0

I'm not so sure that those numbers don't point to a tight-end friendly offense. First off, it should be noted that Desmond Clark was also a significant portion of their offense in 2000 and 2001, putting up 339 and 566 yards respectively in those years. So another version of Denver TE production could be expressed like so:

Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0 + Desmond Clark 27-339-3 = 64-820-3
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6 + Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4 = 85-865-10
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3 + Carswell 21-189-1 = 82-875-4
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8 + Carswell 6-53-1 = 68-823-9
2004* Jeb Putzier 36-572-2 + Carswell 22-198-1 = 58-770-3
2005* Jeb Putzier 37-481-0 + Stephen Alexander 27-170-1 = 64-651-1

*H-Back/FB/TE Kyle Johnson also contributed 9-126-2 in '04 and 17-160-5 in '05, but, as the slashes indicate, considering him just a TE is problematic.

Texans TEs:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5 + Putzier 13-125-0 = 47-477-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3 + Putzier/Dreesen 10-94-3 = 73-862-6
2008 Daniels 70-862-2 + Dreesen 11-77-0 = 81-939-2

There are a few things I take away from this grouping. One is that OD provides the lion's share of the Texans TE production. In contrast, the Denver years have two years with split production and in the other years only once did the 2nd TE fail to pick up 170 yards. My interpretation is that this probably occurred due to a few factors. One, Daniels has been considerably better than our 2nd tight ends and has been durable enough be on the field almost all the time. The blocking TE, Bruener, the Texans have paired Daniels with was also not going to see many throws aimed his way. The other thing I notice from this grouping, though, is that the Broncos combined TE production has been similar to the Texans in the Kubiak offense. The average for the years cited for Denver TE's is 70-801-5; the average for Texans TEs is 67-759-4. If you throw out Owen's rookie year, the Texans averages are 77-900-4.

If you just compare the Bronco's top TE's to OD you get:

Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
Average: 47-593-3

Owen Daniels:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3
2008 Daniels 70-862-2
OD Avg: 56-661-3

While I think that Denver chart gives a less clear view of Denver's TE dynamic, I think it's interesting because of the players involved. Dwayne Carswell was an oversized blocking TE who would convert to the offensive line late in his career; only 3 times in his career did he exceed 200 yards receiving (the two mentioned, plus one year at 201 yards.) Desmond Clark disappeared after the 2000 and 2001 campaigns, not matching his 2001 timeshare season again until 2006 when he came out of witness protection for Ron Turner's Bears offense. Sharpe, at the end of his career, was able to average 728 yards and 5 TDs at the ages of 34 and 35 in this offense.

The worst two years on the Broncos list belong to Putzier who has only 19 receptions since the 2004-05 campaigns and couldn't even muster a decent timeshare in Houston despite knowing the system. Even Putzier averaged 525 yards in his years as the #1 TE. For a guy whose done nothing since even as he entered what should have been the prime of his career, 525 yards per year makes it seem like you should be able to plug anyone whose hands aren't made of stone into this offense and get a solid level of production.

This isn't to say that Owen hasn't been better than his Denver predecessors. He has been and I think he's been a pretty good receiving weapon for us. But I'm not sure if he's worth paying him the numbers he will likely get when we can likely get decent production for considerably less money. I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line. I'm wondering if the Texans might be thinking they might be able to match OD's production with a Casey/Hill pairing that would be similar to the Clark/Carswell grouping that combined to produce OD-like numbers. I think these next 8 months or so will be quite interesting to watch how the front office and coaching staff manage this situation.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by dadmg

I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap

I think this is the point where the argument boils down. Yours is an interesting counterpoint, and I think we possibly differ here on something of a philosophical perspective.

Average players are available and come and go. I think it was Charles Barkley who said the NBA was a league of all-stars, i.e. everyone who's good enough to make it can play at a real high level, but not everyone is special and truly capable of separating themselves from the rest of the 'stars'. The NFL is not the NBA, but I think the same perspective is applicable. Premium players are harder to find and they come at a price. Everyone is going to have different thresholds on what to pay.

And where to spend it. Just like with the expansion era Texans when the team had to answer a philosophical question about where to spend their top draft picks, position-wise (yes... if they were really going to go BPA, then they probably would not have forced a QB up their draft board in 2002 for example.) There's the franchise QB, the LT, the pass rusher, the shutdown corner... you have to go really far down that list before you get the seam-busting TE. This where I hesitate to open McNair's wallet ...if I was working under a strict budget.

Originally Posted by dadmg

and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line.

So, yes, this assumes a sort of zero sum limited capital scenario, or at least one severely stricken by salary cap limits. While this was a concern before 2009, I'm not certain it is as concerning from here forward. The next CBA will have a lot to say here. Teams have more cap room than they need this year (a few are going to struggle to spend to the floor much less the max), and as it looks right now, there won't even be a cap in 2010.

As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.