DT Development

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by dadmg

The mean age for a DT's first appearance in the Pro Bowl in the past 20 years was 25.73 years old, or 4.25 seasons of experience. The median and mode ages for first Pro Bowl also came out at 4 seasons and 26 years old. From this, we can say that the prime of the average Pro Bowl DT's career is probably between 26-30.



The young Okoye will be 22 by the start of training camp and entering his third season in the league. His age is obviously much younger than the projected prime age I mentioned earlier of 26-30 and if he really takes that long to develop, he likely won't last with the Texans.

So the big question with Okoye will be which factor will matter more: the development of his body or his experience in the league? By either factor he's considerably more likely to breakout in 2010 than 2009, but the likelihood of an '09 breakthrough is considerably more likely if the big factor is experience.

When the Texans drafted Okoye, I have to imagine that their best case scenario was that he'd develop quickly and have a longer span of "prime years" thus making him a bargain. However, realistically speaking it would only make sense to see this thing through to its natural conclusion. He has 4 more years before he becomes the magical age of 26 and he'll have 6 years of experience under his belt in order to build upon. Therefore, I wouldn't "give up" on this guy until he was 27 years old. Hopefully, he'll play at a pro-bowl level before that, but if not, it wouldn't make sense to cut bait before then.

As for Travis Johnson, you said it, his time is Now.

[Nconroe]

Excellent research DadMG. Maybe that's why it takes 3 years to judge a draft accurately. I am wondering if perhaps overall defense team ranking fits in there somehow as well. And maybe education level/intelligence?

Looking at 5 DT on Texans roster now
name, ht, wt, yrs exp, age
Sean Cody, 6-4, 310, 5, 26
Frank Okam, 6-5, 342, 1, 23
DelJuan Robinson. 6-3, 296, 2, 24
Amobi Okoye, 6-2, 302, 2, 21
Travis Johnson, 6-3, 303, 4, 26

So, if theory correct , Sean Cody and Travis Johnson ought to be our best starters this year as they are just entering their prime. The other guys are too young and inexperienced for two more years. At any rate we have a very young Dline and if we draft another we will be even younger.

[jppaul]

Well done Dadmg. You put alot of research into that and it is appreciated.

To me this confirms several things: first that DTs take 3 years to develop, and second, that it takes another year or two after that for the league to recognize it (demeco got recognized in his second year and so have a litany of players who put up strong pro bowl caliber performances at more stand out postions) which is why it seems the pro bowl average time between draft and pro bowl is about 5 years.

[papabear]

I feel like last year gave us a pretty good idea of what Travis Johnson is. I'm not saying he can't continue to improve, but he's close to what he's going to be IMO. I see him as an average player...good rotation guy, borderline starter type. You hope for more from a first round pick, but in reality that's not all that bad. There are many other more monumental ways to fail with a first round guy. Travis was an unpopular draft pick who had some struggles early. Some fans made up their mind on him then, and nothing short of consecutive pro-bowls would change their minds.

that was my only problem with the Okoye pick...and it wasn't really a problem as much as I knew it was something that was going to annoy me down the road. Everyone talked about patience with a rookie DT, especially one as young as he was...and then threw it out the window after a season and a half.

I've always said that I think DT takes the longest for a player to develop and it's nice to see someone actually try and back it up.

[da Bull]

dadmg,

Of the older players making the pro bowl at first glance they appear to be the "water buffalo" type (Sam Adams) vs. the quicker "gap shooters". Haynesworth, although a very large man appears to be more of a "gap shooter". In your opinion (having researched the position) which type makes up the majority of the data, if either?

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by da Bull

dadmg,

Of the older players making the pro bowl at first glance they appear to be the "water buffalo" type (Sam Adams) vs. the quicker "gap shooters". Haynesworth, although a very large man appears to be more of a "gap shooter". In your opinion (having researched the position) which type makes up the majority of the data, if either?

I was going to continue my research in this exact direction but two things stymied me. One was that its more difficult to quantifiably separate the two groups then I'd guessed. I was going to do it by a weight cutoff, but that was stymied by team practices. According to official listed weight, Pat Williams (316) weighs only five more pounds than teammate Kevin Williams (311). As anyone with eyeballs knows, there's no way on this earth that is true. Kevin Williams, at one point in his career, was so much a gap-shooting type that he played more often at DE. While he's more of a tweener between the groups now, I Pat and Kevin are not the same type of DT by any stretch of the imagination. I also considered sacks as a measure but some DTs do both or switch roles depending on the year and the scheme. The second thing that ended my pursuit of that line of research was that I realized I'd already done far too much procrastinating for the day and needed to get some vital homework done

IMO, I think that the gap shooters develop quicker. The adjustment from the college game to the pro game isn't that great if you're role on defense is to charge indiscriminately up field. I think it takes awhile longer to figure out how to control gaps. Then again, it could just be that we recognize the gap shooters success sooner because they rack up the big numbers that stand out even if we didn't see a game and the big lugs don't. By most Buffalo fans accounts, Pat Williams was a Pro Bowl DT throughout a good portion of his tenure with the team but wasn't recognized as such until he became the key cog in a Minnesota D that did an absurd job of stopping the run the last few years.

[da Bull]

dadmg,

Thanks for the effort. Even if you just applied your best guess to the data base it would be interesting to see how it falls out.

I have to agree with you that "shooting the gaps" is easier for the younger players and "holding a gap" effectively comes with experience. But it helps to have three or four cheese burgers under your belt.

Homework.......Black Hills State Teachers College?

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

Excellent research DadMG. Maybe that's why it takes 3 years to judge a draft accurately. I am wondering if perhaps overall defense team ranking fits in there somehow as well. And maybe education level/intelligence?

Oh, I'm sure those (and other factors such as coaching, college experience) play heavily into rate of development. And, at the very least, overall defense influences the metric by which I was judging these players, Pro Bowl appearances. As I'm sure you've noticed, often times one of the top defenses will have a slew of players make the Pro Bowl all at once.

Looking at 5 DT on Texans roster now
name, ht, wt, yrs exp, age
Sean Cody, 6-4, 310, 5, 26
Frank Okam, 6-5, 342, 1, 23
DelJuan Robinson. 6-3, 296, 2, 24
Amobi Okoye, 6-2, 302, 2, 21
Travis Johnson, 6-3, 303, 4, 26

So, if theory correct , Sean Cody and Travis Johnson ought to be our best starters this year as they are just entering their prime. The other guys are too young and inexperienced for two more years. At any rate we have a very young Dline and if we draft another we will be even younger.

I don't think this theory holds that Cody and Johnson are necessarily the best players at the position because they're in their theoretical primes. It just says that right now, and for the next few years, we are likely seeing the best those two players will have to offer. That best might not be as good as the non-prime performance of another player. For instance, Casey Hampton will be 32 this coming year, which is out of those theoretical prime years but I'm sure anyone here would plug him into the lineup in a heartbeat. On the other end of the spectrum, for all we know Okoye could emerge as a better option than either Cody or Johnson whether he's actually hitting his prime or not. If Okoye emerges as a solid starter and Cody doesn't, then it doesn't matter whether Okoye's hit his prime or not because below prime for him might be better than Cody's prime.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Roy P

When the Texans drafted Okoye, I have to imagine that their best case scenario was that he'd develop quickly and have a longer span of "prime years" thus making him a bargain. However, realistically speaking it would only make sense to see this thing through to its natural conclusion. He has 4 more years before he becomes the magical age of 26 and he'll have 6 years of experience under his belt in order to build upon. Therefore, I wouldn't "give up" on this guy until he was 27 years old. Hopefully, he'll play at a pro-bowl level before that, but if not, it wouldn't make sense to cut bait before then.

As for Travis Johnson, you said it, his time is Now.

I agree with your assessment of the Texans in part taking Okoye because of a possibility of a longer prime and I also agree with you that anyone who drafts a player like Okoye should be willing to stick it out until they get to the payoff barring complete bustitude (if he's on the bench two years from now, I can understand reluctance to see him through). I just don't know whether many GMs would stick by a player to his second contract if he hadn't lived up to expectations. Sometimes even skilled talent evaluators give up on "busts" too early because they're a reminder of failure to their fans. AJ Smith's decision to give up on Drew Brees and draft Phillip Rivers struck me at the time as that type of decision and, for once, I turned out to be right.

All that said, while it probably didn't come through in this thread, I am quite optimistic for Okoye's future. I'm just not sure the future is now yet, although as a fan I desperately hope it is because a breakout year from Okoye would have a huge impact on this D.