The J.J. Watt Conundrum

[HPF Bob]

How did the group that whiffed on Amobi Okoye and Louis Nix get J.J. Watt so right in 2011 with the #11 overall pick?

One of those random thoughts that pop up while in the shower. While he did not win the MVP last season, he was arguably the best player in the NFL last year and we didn't have to trade up or sell the farm to get him.

If you look at the 2011 draft, the first 10 picks, other than the QBs, weren't all that bad:

1. Cam Newton QB
2. Von Miller OLB
3. Marcel Dareus, DT
4. A.J. Green, WR
5. Patrick Peterson, CB-KR
6. Julio Jones, WR
7. Aldon Smith, DE
8. Jake Locker, QB
9. Tyron Smith, OL
10. Blaine Gabbert, QB

Other than Locker and Gabbert, you can't say any were busts. If the 9ers had no idea Smith was bipolar, that could be excused as well.

The talk in Houston that spring was drafting Robert Quinn whom the Rams took a couple of picks later and hasn't played poorly.

So were the Texans' FO "blind squirrels" that year or did they have some real insight on how great Watt could be?