Official Texans @ Jaguars Game Thread, 12/7/2014

[Arky]

The line has moved up to Texans favored by 6.5 to 7. That means most of the action is coming in on the Texans. Walterfootball has it as 88%.

Walt brings up a couple of interesting trends when the betting gets lopsided like this:

85-15 RULE:

Teams getting 80-84 percent of the action, past two seasons: 24-16-1 ATS.
Teams getting 85-plus percent of the action, past two seasons: 10-23-1 ATS.

(The Broncos are 3-1 ATS when getting 85 percent or more, so if you exclude them, this dynamic is 7-22-1 ATS in the past two seasons.)

And then, further along in the Texans vs. Jags matchup, there's this:

RECAP: I'm not betting this game. The Texans could easily dominate - again, Watt versus a terrible quarterback has been money this year - but going against the 85-15 Rule is not something I want to be a part of, even though the public is a ridiculous 9-1 when fading the Jaguars at 75-plus percent. I also think this spread is pretty fairly priced, as I had it at Texans -5.

Gun to my head, I'm still taking the Texans, but not with any sort of conviction.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is an 85-15 game. However, the Jaguars are the only team that seldom covers in this situation.

So, all this to say, the trends show when there is heavy betting of the public at over an 85% clip, that favorite seldom covers against the spread. Unless it's the Jags......

So, who's the right side? Dunno, but don't be surprised if it's a closer game than expected....