Official Texans @ Jets Game Thread, 12/15/2018

[Arky]

Week 15 finds the 9-4 Texans heading to East Rutherford, NJ to play the 4-9 NY Jets in the uncommon Saturday afternoon game The Texans are coming off a 24-21 home loss to the Colts, the Jets are coming off a 27-23 road win over the Bills. The weather forecast puts the temperature in the 40's and rainy. The Jets will be without their top RB Isaiah Crowell and top WR Quincy Enunwa. I see this as a "get right" game for the Texans and they should be more focused than their last outing...

----------------------------------------------------------

TV = NFLN, 3:30 pm CST, Saturday, 12/15/2018

Announcers = Curt Menefee, Nate Burleson, Steve Mariucci

The line = Texans by 6½ to 7

----------------------------------------------------------

Sunday viewing in the Houston area:

CBS (early) = Tennessee @ NY Giants, Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Bruce Arians

FOX (early) = Dallas @ Indianapolis, Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis

CBS (late) = New England @ Pittsburgh, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

-----------------------------------------------------------

Prime time:

TNF = LA Chargers @ Kansas City (FOX/NFLN)

Saturday (evening) = Cleveland @ Denver, 7:00 PM CST, NFLN; Mike Tirico, Kurt Warner

SNF = Philadelphia @ LA Rams (NBC)

MNF = New Orleans @ Carolina (ESPN)

[Arky]

Sean Pendergast - NFL Week 15: Texans-Jets — Four Things To Watch For:

3. Special teams
Texans' special teams have hovered around the top ten in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings all season long, thanks largely to the hiring of special teams coach Brad Seely and a renewed focus from the new GM on bringing in "special teams guys," dudes who fit a special teams skill-set who take pride in running down and making hits. This is the rare matchup this season where the Texans don't get the check mark in the special teams matchup, as the Jets are number two in the league in that phase, and Andre Roberts is one of the most dangerous return men in the league, 4th in KOR average (27.1 yards) and 1st in PR average (15.3 yards). If the Jets are going to pull off the upset, they'll need "invisible yards" in the return game and via turnovers to do so.

2. Non-Hop weapons
The Colts game was the first time since the Will Fuller injury where it really felt like the Texans were missing something downfield. A lot of that was probably because they couldn't run the ball, and were in second and double digit yards all day, but the Colts had success taking DeAndre Hopkins away and leaving things up to the rest of the Texans' pass catchers. The tight ends were super productive (11 catches on 11 targets), and that would be a nice trend to see continue, but clearly this offense needs a healthy Keke Coutee to open things up underneath. Other than Hopkins, they don't have anyone who can kill the opposition for single covering them. Coutee can, and they must have him back. Two cold weather games in a row with a wonky hammy isn't optimal, but whatever. It's time.

1. Rookie QB versus RAC
Strangely enough, I would be more concerned about this game if the Jets were starting their 90-year-old backup QB, Josh McCown. I think he gives them a better chance to win this game, and chip away at the Texans' secondary than rookie Sam Darnold does. That said, the Jets have to play Darnold. He's the future, and the future is here. However, much like Baker Mayfield a couple weeks ago, Romeo Crennel will have some confusing coverages for Darnold to read, and the rookie has looked shaky when asked to think this season. He's thrown 15 picks in ten games, and his 69.5 passer rating ranks 30th in the league. 17 points SHOULD win this game for the Texans.

SPREAD: Texans -6
PREDICTION: Texans 26, Jets 17
RECORD: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS

More at link.

[nunusguy]

Another terrific week of NFL ball starting with the Chargers victory over KC last night which could probably be described as a mild upset and it was a huge win for the Chargers in that I can see them going from being the top wild-card in the AFC P/Os to being the #1 seed with a first week bye if things break right for them.
And that includes NE loosing to the Steelers which would also really help the Texans if they can help themselves and win out from here, though I'll be more than happy with two wins in the last 3 weeks..

[HPF Bob]

Accuweather (warning: contradictory term) predicts it will be in the low 50s and cloudy (not rainy) for kickoff. That's a huge break. However, I don't think the Texans have ever won east of Washington DC so there's that problem.

Denver came into MetLife thinking they could steamroll the Jets and were down 17-0 before they knew what had happened to them (that was with Darnold out-throwing their coverages). Houston has to avoid the trap game slow start.

Allen (Buf) proved you can QB run these guys to death - not that I want that for Watson but he should be advised to pull it down and take off instead of holding the ball too long. Quick release timing routes are also a good idea with guys like DHop and DT able to win the 50/50 passes.

Keyvon Webster is back this week from IR and D'onta Foreman should help the tired running game.

[Arky]

Fairbairn puts the Texans on the board first with a 41-yard FG.

Texans 3, Jets 0

9:23 left in the 1st qtr.

[Arky]

Myers answers with a 26-yard FG for the Jets. Long drive aided by Texan penalties.

Texans 3, Jets 3

2:01 left in the 1st qtr.

[Arky]

Fairbairn good on a 32-yard FG. Texans 0-2 in the red zone.

Texans 6, Jets 3

12:51 left in the half.

[Arky]

Bombs away to Dhop! 45 yard TD!

Texans 13, Jets 3

8:14 left in the half.

[Arky]

Fairbairn good on a 53-yard FG.

Texans 16, Jets 3

4:35 left in the half.

[Arky]

Jets add a 5-yard TD pass to Anderson with 30 seconds left in the half.

Extra point no good.

Texans 16, Jets 9

[Arky]

Texans go 3 and out to start the 2nd half. Jets put a drive together that ends with a 13-yard TD pass to Roberts.

Extra point again no good.

Texans 16, Jets 15

8:39 left in the 3rd qtr.

[Arky]

Fairbairn good from 49.

Texans 19, Jets 15

12:33 left in the game.

Watson sacked 6 times and counting...

[Keith]

Ugh had to miss most of this due to a long car ride. And yet, maybe I shouldn't feel I missed much? Seems like same old problems.

Defenses seems able to just blitz this offense at will.

[Arky]

Jets score on a 2 yard run by McGuire.

Jets 22, Texans 19

5 minutes left in the game.

Texans 1/8 on 3rd downs.

0/3 in the red zone.

[Keith]

DHop is so sweet.

Please don't be hurt.

[Arky]

Watson hits Dhop for 14 yards and the TD.

Texans 26, Jets 22

2:15 left in the game.

How about a pick 6 to end the game?

[Arky]

Jets go 4 and out. Texans run 3 times and settle for the Fairbairn 40-yard FG.

Texans 29, Jets 22

54 seconds left in the game.

[Arky]

Final score:

Texans 29, Jets 22

Got kinda hairy for a while there. Saw a lot of bad, stupid, awful and terrible but somehow the Texans win by 7 and cover my 6½ pts.

A new high 10 wins for OB. Need to get to 12....

[nunusguy]

OK so now we can sit back and see what the rest of the conference does tomorrow.
BTW great job as usual Arky.

[Arky]

Beat Philly and Jax and the Texans will be at least the #2 seed and get a bye - a much needed extra week of rest....

What a screwy week. 49'ers have killed me two weeks in a row....

No early line, yet on Texans vs. Eagles...

Edit: thanks, nunu.