Can Slaton be a Feature Back?

[dadmg]

I started this post as a reply to Bob in the Grading thread, but its so far off the track of the thread that I decided to post it here on its own.

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Slaton is a good choice if he isn't overworked and he learns not to fumble. He needs to be part of a RB-by-committee, not the feature back.

I kind of agree with the this and kind of don't.

I do believe Slaton can be a featured back, just not one with a Larry Johnson/Willie Parker caliber load. Then again, no back should shoulder that big of a load if you want them to last more than a few years. I think every team should try to have a backup that's decent enough to get at least 1/3 of the team's carries. That said, I think Slaton has a frame that can stand stand a reasonable feature load.

This thought process of mine is based on a posting I read over at Pro Reference Football's blog by Chase Stuart awhile back. Its interesting reading. The posting examined the BMI of some of the most successful backs as opposed to strictly weight (the initial section examines the top 50 rushers, then moves on to current younger RBs, then to rookies). This takes into account some backs that were/are considered "small" by the media who are actually well-built such as Barry Sanders and Maurice Jones-Drew, each of whom had compact bodies but well-muscled thighs. Here are some BMI's for a sampling of young RBs that haven't hit 5000 yards yet, from the post (first column: yards; second: height in inches; third: weight in pounds; fourth: BMI)

Maurice Jones-Drew 1709 68 205 31.2
Willis McGahee 4572 72 228 30.9
Brian Westbrook 4785 68 200 30.4
Larry Johnson 4764 73 228 30.1
Willie Parker 4198 70 209 30.0
Joseph Addai 2153 71 210 29.3
Adrian Peterson 1341 73 217 28.6
Reggie Bush 1146 72 200 27.1

Based on his combine numbers (5'9", 197 lbs, which is also what the Texans' site lists him at), Slaton's BMI comes in right around Addai level (29.1) (or if you wish, Edgerrin James who's a 29.0) and a bit below their average for the top 50 rushers of all-time (29.6). If he packs on 3-4 pounds of muscle on an NFL weight training regimen, he's at that 29.6 level and 5-6 lbs would put him in their ideal 30 range.

Slaton may not be built like a Jonathan Stewart, but I think his shortness misleads as to his size. The focus of the post, Darren McFadden, comes in at only around 27 (27.6 by the rumored 215 weight, although he checked in at the combine at 210). Slaton's 29.1 comes in just barely below Mendenhall's 29.3, and I don't see many people suggesting Mendenhall will likely need to be a part-time back. He's already better built than Tiki Barber/Clinton Portis, who are in the 28.6/28.7 range, not to mention the last feature back in an Alex Gibbs system, Warrick Dunn and his tiny 26.6. Actually, now that I notice it many of the RBs that have run in this system have had lower BMIs than Slaton (Selvin Young: 28.9, Terrell Davis: 28.7, Portis: 28.6, Norwood 27.8, Dunn 26.6). Only Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary came in at 30 or higher. Tatum Bell came out at 5'11, 190 (26.5) and now clocks in at 213 (29.7) according to his NFL.com profile, although I don't know what size he was in Denver.

Slaton won't be a workhorse but I believe he at least has the frame to be considered for a featured load, especially with what that now constitutes. Most teams are going away from putting all of the carries on one back: the carries leader this year was the lowest in a non-strike year since 1976 - which was before the 16 game schedule - although rookie coach Tomlin had Parker on a career-killing pace before he broke his leg. The top two RBs in carries this year (Portis, James) had BMIs of 28.6, 29.0, although the next few came in at 30+. Slaton shouldn't have much problem keeping up with a feature back role if he's good enough, especially if we use some of our RB depth to spell him properly.

[Keith]

I think this is some sound analysis.

Perhaps a corrollary here to the BMI theory, a back's ability to not absorb a lot of "head-on" hits also helps the small-to-medium backs with average BMI become feature backs and stay injury-free.

I haven't seen enough of Slaton yet to know whether he is this type of inside runner, but I think this little lack of shiftiness in the bigger backs is what shortens their careers, especially after a season or two with heavy, feature back-type workloads.

I'm optimistic that in this system Slaton can someday be a feature back, with 15-20 touches per game rushing and receiving, assuming he can see the field as a blocker.

He might be part of a three-headed approach with Brown and Green this year, at least until Brown and/or Green get hurt, but it wouldn't surprise me if Slaton gets that kind of workload as the season progresses if Kubiak and Co. can trust him in picking up a blitzer.

[nero THE zero]

Very nice analysis. This is the type of quality posting that I love to read.

Given your premise, Slaton is obviously built enough to carry a starter's load, but I don't think he'll be asked to do that off the bat. Given the fact that he is a rookie, he will have to pay his dues, learn the scheme, prove that he can pass protect, and prove he can hold onto the ball before he gets any kind of significant PT.

Also, I think he was brought in as an insurance policy and a change of pace kind of guy. There's no question in my mind that some combination of Chris Brown and Ahman Green or Chris Taylor will be our RBBC. I think, given their injury history, Slaton will be slotted behind them in case one goes down with an injury. In due time I do agree with your conclusion that Slaton could be getting the majority of carries in a RBBC, but I certainly don't think it's this year and I hope it's not next year.

[Roy P]

I see Slaton as a 7 - 15 carries per game type RB. Who falls in that catagory from last season?

Name-------------Carries----CPG----Rushing Yards
Fred Taylor--------223------14.9-----1202
Marion Barber-----204------12.8------975
Chester Taylor-----157------11.2------844
Laurence Maroney--185------14.2------835
Maurice Jones-Drew-167----11.1------768
Selvin Young-------140------9.3-------729
DeAngelo Williams---144------9--------717
Jerious Norwood----103------6.9------613
Julius Jones--------164-----10.2------588
Reggie Bush-------157-----13.1------581

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I see Slaton as a 7 - 15 carries per game type RB.

Originally Posted by Keith

I'm optimistic that in this system Slaton can someday be a feature back, with 15-20 touches per game rushing and receiving, assuming he can see the field as a blocker.

Myself, I'd like to see him in the 15-18 carries range (240-288 per season). Then again, if I was a head coach, I would generally prefer to keep my lead back in that range if I could help it. If I had a top-level back and a mediocre backup, I might let him go a bit more but once you get around 350 (roughly 22 carries per game) you're tempting fate. Higher than that and you're really playing with fire, especially if you have a playoff team (which will extend his workload further). I've done quite a bit of charting on workloads and very few backs since the NFL switched to a 16 game schedule have proven to be able to consistently run in that range without trouble.

[NickO]

Looks like the days of the single workhorse back are dwindling. Ahman's showed me nothing so far, I wouldn't be hurt to see him gone.

I LOVED the Brown acquisition. I've admired him even since he tore my horns a new one in the Big XII championship...and that was a zone blocking scheme he ran in at Colorado. His injury problems are less of a concern to me now that Slaton's around for a little more depth.

[dadmg]

I don't think Slaton will be a starter right out of the gates because he will need to learn to be a better pass blocker. I wouldn't be surprised if he was very limited early for just this reason; why send out a back for consistent third down duty if he can't be counted on to pick up a blitzer if needed?

That said, the depth chart ahead of him doesn't look like anything special at the moment. I think Green's about at the end of the line. Chris Brown has had serious trouble staying healthy and effective, although there are renewed hopes for him in this scheme. And Taylor, for all the hope he represents, is a back coming off an ACL injury and it usually takes another year to get back to full speed. The path is clear if he can take it.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by dadmg

I don't think Slaton will be a starter right out of the gates because he will need to learn to be a better pass blocker. I wouldn't be surprised if he was very limited early for just this reason; why send out a back for consistent third down duty if he can't be counted on to pick up a blitzer if needed?

That said, the depth chart ahead of him doesn't look like anything special at the moment.

That's what I really don't know about Slaton is how well he will pick this part of the game up. This is the number one thing most rookies RB's struggle with, but it is a very important part of todays game.

I think most teams have come to realize that it is better to have a couple of guys splitting carries than it is to have one do all the work. They are both fresher at the end of the season and it is not a catastrophe if one of them goes down. In that sens I think he can be a very important part of the running game in the future. I think our situation allows us to work him slowly over time (read: until Green or Brown gets hurt) which is probably better for him anyway.

I wasn't upset when this pick was called, but it definitely didn't get me excited. It is starting to grow on me, and I love the outside the box BMI analysis. That was one of things with Bush that bothered me....he just didn't look like a RB because I thought his legs were too skinny. Of course my first memories of football were Earl Campbell, so my definition of what a running back should look like is probably a little skewed.