Official Wild Card Playoff Round - Texans vs. Bills Game Thread, 1/4/2020

[Arky]

The 10-6 Houston Texans will host the 10-6 Buffalo Bills this Saturday in a late afternoon game at NRG stadium in round 1 (wildcard round) of the playoffs. Both teams are coming off a week of taking it easy as the Texans fell to the Tennessee Titans at home 35-14 and the Bills fell to the NY Jets 13-6 at home.

There are 20 other teams sitting at home so if the Texans can win, they can advance to the final 8 (divisional round). A win there and they would advance to the final 4 (conference championship round) - a place they've never been before in their somewhat short history. But first things first...

The Bills defense is rated #3 (yds/game) behind the Patriots and 49'ers. The Texans defense is rated #28 which is bottom 5. The Texans, however, have the better offense statistically. The Bills were knocked out in the wild card round in 2017 but before that, you have to go back to 1999 for their last playoff appearance. The Texans have made the playoffs 4 of the last 5 years so, give the edge to the Texans for playoff experience.

It would be nice for the Texans to have relatively clean game that is not marred by an excess of turnovers, coaching blunders or defensive lapses. Well, that's probably not going to happen but I still see it:

Texans 17, Bills 13

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TV = ABC/ESPN (channel 13 local), 3:35 pm CST, Saturday, 1/4/2020

Announcers = (probably) Joe Tessitore, Booger McFarland (talk to me, Booger!)

The line = (mostly) Texans by 2½

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Other playoff games:

CBS (Saturday night) = Tennessee @ New England, 7:15 PM CST

FOX (Sunday early) = Minnesota @ New Orleans, 12:05 PM CST

NBC (Sunday late) = Seattle @ Philadelphia, 3:40 PM

[Arky]

Team records ATS (against the spread):

Texans = 7-8-1

Bills = 9-6-1

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Walterfootball likes the bet-against 1st time QB in the playoffs angle. He provides:

To sum it up:

Home favorites: 5-16 ATS, 8-13 SU
Home underdogs: 2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 6-9 ATS, 3-12 SU

Combined Record: 14-32-1 ATS, 15-32 SU

Fading first-time playoff quarterbacks allowed you to go 3-1 against the spread last year, with the only loss coming in the Chiefs-Colts divisional-round game. Call me crazy, but Allen is no Patrick Mahomes.

He likes the Texans to win and cover.

[HPF Bob]

Texans are 3-3 in common opponents while Buffalo is 2-3. A big chunk of that stat is that Buffalo was 0-2 against New England, whom we beat, while Houston split with Tennessee, whom they beat. However, the loss to Tennessee comes with an asterisk as Houston certainly wasn't playing their best players.

Buffalo, like the Pats, benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule - 4 games against the Jets and Dolphins plus games against Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Washington and the Giants. That should be 9-0 right there. The Bills went 7-2.

Their "good wins" were against Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Dallas, two of which also missed the playoffs - so they are 1-4 against playoff teams.

Houston did better against an arguably tougher schedule. The "easy" part were 4 games against the Jags and Colts, followed by Atlanta, Carolina, LA Chargers, Oakland and Denver. The Texans went 6-3. Their "good wins" were against Tennessee, Kansas City, New England and Tampa Bay - of which Tampa Bay missed the playoffs. The Texans are 3-3 against playoff teams, again with the asterisk for the Week 17 game.

I think by schedule analysis, Houston is the better team. Whether it shows on Saturday is another matter.

[HPF Bob]

From Tuesday's practices, according to Rotowire:

* J.J. Watt (pectoral) is cleared for play but not expected to play every defensive snap. It would not surprise me if he is brought in just for obvious passing downs.

* Jahleel Addae (achilles) held back in practice but expects to be ready.

* Jonathan Joseph (hamstring) was limited in practice. He's a veteran so light practices shouldn't be a sign he won't be ready.

* Bradley Roby (hamstring) was limited in practice. Like Joseph, he won't need much to get ready.

* Laremy Tunsil (ankle) was limited in practice. Roderick Johnson took snaps as his backup.

* Will Fuller V (groin) was limited in practice. Likely to be listed as questionable and a game time decision.

* Kenny Stills (knee) was limited in practice. Likely listed as questionable and a game time decision.

* Jordan Thomas (illness) missed Wednesday's practice. No details.

Bills appear relatively healthy with the biggest concern being their right tackle who was injured in the loss to the Jets.

[HPF Bob]

Fatboy tweets Fuller V is a scratch.

[chuck]

All of you necks seriously thought the Nexans were going to win? lmao

[Arky]

Gametime!

Texans sporting the all-blues...

Texans kickoff to the Bills. Touchback. Bills to start at their 25.

Bills waste no time. Allen has a 42-yard run and then they use a halfback pass back to the QB for 16-yard TD.

Bills 7, Texans 0

11:41 left in the 1st qtr.

Way to go defense!