Official Texans @ Jaguars Game Thread, 12/7/2014

[Arky]

The 6-6 Texans travel to Jacksonville to play the 2-10 Jaguars in an early game this Sunday. The Texans are fresh off a 45-21 home win over the Titans while the Jaguars are coming off a 25-24 come-from-behind win over the NY Giants. This should be a taking-care-of-business game for the Texans but you never know....the Jags always give the Texans a fight.

TV = CBS (channel 11 local), noon Sunday, CST

Announcers = Brian Anderson, Adam Archuleta

The line = Texans by 5 to 6 (one of the faster risers this week with 93% of the money coming in on the Texans)

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Other Sunday viewing in the Houston area:

FOX (early) = Indianapolis @ Cleveland -- Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch

FOX (late) = Seattle @ Philadelphia -- Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

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Prime time:

TNF = Dallas @ Chicago (NFLN)

SNF = New England @ San Diego (NBC)

MNF = Atlanta @ Green Bay (ESPN)

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Bye weeks are over so 16 games/wk for the rest of the year.....

[Keith]

The Texans are actually in a decent situation with four games to play, two of them against the Jaguars. Momentum riding high.

But this is a trap game if they aren't careful. Can't look ahead to the Colts game. Can't go up 14-0 early and expect to coast.

With a little help, the Texans can finish 3-1, with two of those wins coming over the Jaguars, and have a reasonable shot at the final wild card spot. But this is a .500 team for good reason. Generally though, they've beaten the lesser teams, so as long as they avoid the trap, this should be a win.

[Arky]

The line has moved up to Texans favored by 6.5 to 7. That means most of the action is coming in on the Texans. Walterfootball has it as 88%.

Walt brings up a couple of interesting trends when the betting gets lopsided like this:

85-15 RULE:

Teams getting 80-84 percent of the action, past two seasons: 24-16-1 ATS.
Teams getting 85-plus percent of the action, past two seasons: 10-23-1 ATS.

(The Broncos are 3-1 ATS when getting 85 percent or more, so if you exclude them, this dynamic is 7-22-1 ATS in the past two seasons.)

And then, further along in the Texans vs. Jags matchup, there's this:

RECAP: I'm not betting this game. The Texans could easily dominate - again, Watt versus a terrible quarterback has been money this year - but going against the 85-15 Rule is not something I want to be a part of, even though the public is a ridiculous 9-1 when fading the Jaguars at 75-plus percent. I also think this spread is pretty fairly priced, as I had it at Texans -5.

Gun to my head, I'm still taking the Texans, but not with any sort of conviction.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is an 85-15 game. However, the Jaguars are the only team that seldom covers in this situation.

So, all this to say, the trends show when there is heavy betting of the public at over an 85% clip, that favorite seldom covers against the spread. Unless it's the Jags......

So, who's the right side? Dunno, but don't be surprised if it's a closer game than expected....

[Arky]

And here we go.....

Jags win the toss and defer. Texans to receive.

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Kickoff goes out of the end zone, touchback. Texans will have the ball at their 20.

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Foster goes right side for about 15 but holding on Fido brings it back. -10 yards makes it 1st and 20.

Foster for about 6. Brings up 2nd and 14.

Foster for about 8. 3rd and 6 coming up.

Fitz can't find a receiver and scrambles for 2. Texans will have to punt.

Jags fair catch the punt at their 27 yard line. Jag's ball.

[Arky]

Pass to Shorts too low, inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Pass to Shorts goes inc but holding on the Texans gives an auto 1st down at the 33 yard line.

Pass to Shorts gets 6.

Bortles keeps and runs for 9 yards. Ball at the Jag 46.

Robinson for 3.

Pass to Hurns gets 5. 3rd and 2 coming up.

Timeout Texans. 10:04 left in the 1st qtr.

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On 3rd down, pass is deflected by Brooks Reed, inc. Jags going for it on 4th and 2......

Jags bluff, delay of game. Jags will punt.

K Martin fair catches the punt at the Texan 15. Texan's ball.

[Arky]

Pass to Hopkins goes for 10 and a 1st down.

Fitz trips handing off, loss of 4.

Foster for loss of 1. Brings up 3rd and 15.

Screen to AJ loses 5. Texans will punt on 4th and 20.

Punt is downed at the Jags 49 yard line. Jag's ball.

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Jets 9, Vikings 7

Panthers 10, Saints 0

Dolphins 3, Ravens 0