The upcoming Chiefs game - Week 6

[Arky]

Aight, time to leave last Sunday's (game) behind and move on. The 3-1 Chiefs come to town and statistically, are very similar to the the Texans. On defensive, both are strong against the run, weak against the pass. On offense, the Chiefs (like the Texans) have a strong running game led by Jamal Charles' gaudy 6.5 yds/carry while the Texans counter with Arian Foster (5.9/carry). The only significant difference between the two is the Texans offense has "average" passing stats while the Chiefs have a bottom 10 passing game. On paper, it shapes up to be a game where Texan's QB Matt Schaub has an opportunity to put up some decent passing numbers...

TV = 12 pm CBS (Channel 11 local)

Announcers = Gus Johnson, Steve Tasker

Opening line = Texans by 3.5
Current line = Texans by 4.5

Set your DVR's....

[NBT]

OK Arky, I don't usually get over a loss such as last Sundays until the following Wednesday, However I will try to move on with you. Some questions come to mind.
1. Why are the Texans so predicatable recently on both offense and defense?
2. Why are we so up and down week to week?
3. We have done better so far this season, but why is it Kubiak doesn't seem to have this team really ready to play until almost mid season every year?
4. Why does it take this team so long to correct obvious weaknesses. For example for a couple of years we couldn't stop the run. Now we can't stop the passing game. Why is this?
5 Last, and perhaps worst, why do we have a decided tendency to get outcoached? Don't we prepare our players for other teams known tendencies? Why can't we change what we are doing wrong at halftime?

[TheMatrix31]

I feel like the two games we've gotten blown out, the games meant more to the opposing team. Dallas was on suicide watch and the Giants were riding a massive wave of survival adrenaline. Now, that doesn't excuse our shitty performance or lack of preparation. I have no idea what's up with Schaub but I know what's up with the secondary---it just sucks. It's simply not good enough. Scheme, whatever, they just aren't that good. It's going to be tough to correct that so quickly.

Just got to chalk it up and look forward. I don't have answers, but I'm not paid to have them.

The Chiefs game will say a lot about this team.

[HPF Bob]

We get to find out if K-Jack really sucks or has just faced a lot of good receivers. The Chiefs have terrible WRs and Cassel is being exposed as a mediocre QB. Charles and Jones, however, have run really well McCluster is a dangerous scatback.

Their defense is doing very well under Romeo Crennel and Derrick Johnson is looking like the guy we should have drafted instead of Travis Johnson.

I think we rebound from a bad week.

[nunusguy]

Being 3-2 with the opportunity to be 4-2 before the bye week is good, but losing those games the way we did was really very frustrating and difficult to understand ? The Giants loss was the most embarrasing, the worst loss for this team since the season opener in 2008 at Pittsburg IMO ? I have no idea what happened with that, and I've heard no explanation from anybody to help me out ? The worst thing about it is of course many of us thought the team was now at a level of maturity and talent that blowouts like that didn't happen, especially at home the week after an inspiring road win.
What happens this week vs the Chiefs in Reliant ? I have no idea ?

[WMH]

IMO, this is a great bounce back game for us, but a terrible measuring stick. Our D is good against the run, the Chiefs strength, and atrocious against the pass, the Chiefs weakness. I look for Schaub to be like last years version of Schaub, and have a 300+ game, with Foster sprinkling enough in to keep them honest.
Texans win by a decent margin, and the natives are calm for two WHOLE weeks.....

[Nconroe]

Originally Posted by NBT

OK Arky, I don't usually get over a loss such as last Sundays until the following Wednesday, However I will try to move on with you. Some questions come to mind.
1. Why are the Texans so predicatable recently on both offense and defense?
2. Why are we so up and down week to week?
3. We have done better so far this season, but why is it Kubiak doesn't seem to have this team really ready to play until almost mid season every year?
4. Why does it take this team so long to correct obvious weaknesses. For example for a couple of years we couldn't stop the run. Now we can't stop the passing game. Why is this?
5 Last, and perhaps worst, why do we have a decided tendency to get outcoached? Don't we prepare our players for other teams known tendencies? Why can't we change what we are doing wrong at halftime?

I will give you my uninformed, fan only, fwiw thoughts on those questions, maybe someone else as better replies.
1. predicatable - injuries and new players so, keep it simple. trouble is other team figures it out quickly and we aren't good enough to just run over people.
2. inconsistent - maybe same, young, injuries, and facing good competition.
3. readiness - maybe same again, new players, rookies, need to adjust, maybe too early for them to start, but they are starting, long term view.
4. fixes - still young and injuries again, teamwork and trust in each other perhaps takes time to develop, discipline, need to stop penalties all three phases.
5. coaching - I think we are making changes during play and at halftime. 3rd quarter the DB's got two interceptions, adjustment was let a certain LB blitz from 3-4 rather than 4-3 scheme. young guys need experience .

Trouble is if you start 1st quarter down 21-0 and you only had 13 plays on offense, the rest of game plan and consistency likely take a blow. very occasionally that kind of start happens, we still have a good winning record and hope to go 4-2 this weekend.

If you look at Giants and Cowboys, they have a lot of guys around 30, we have a lot of guys around 24 that start. experience on the field. fast adjustments on the field need to be seen and accounted for.

I think the guys were playing hard, motivated, but sometimes, games go wrong.

Since we beat Indy and Indy beat KC we ought to beat KC, right. Hoping lessons learned and guys are healthier this week.

[NBT]

Thanks, Nc and I appreciate your comeback. But what concerns me is the fact that I don't think these young kids in the secondary especially, are getting the proper coaching game to game. It just doesn't feel right to me that a player taken with the first pick could be that bad, based on Rick Smith's picks the rest of the time he has been with the Texans. I know the CB position is like being on an island by yourself, but the rest of the defense just hasn't been performing that well either. On several pass plays KJ looked real bad, but on others, when they were in zone, he wasn't getting the help from Pollard, or Cushing that he should have gotten. That has got to be coachings fault, starting with the position coach and going right on up through Frank Bush and Kubiak.

[Nconroe]

so, for sake of discussion,

consider an example -

you were in a class of 4 students studying how to shoot pool. none of you played before.

Now the teacher showed you how to cue the ball, how to chalk the cue stick, how to bridge over a ball, which ball to hit in sequence, how to block the other player, how to make bank shots, what were fouls, so on.

And all four of you got to practice and be critiqued for a month by the coach, atleast four hours a day, plus watching videos, reading theory.

Now you get to a two on two tournament to see which of you is the best.

Your side didn't sink one ball while the other team sank all its balls and wins.

what went wrong- the teacher? or maybe the student can't concentrate for some reason, or you hurt your hand two days earlier, or you did good but your partner messed up, maybe you lost your cool and scratched, ..., after three bad tournaments you get a new pool coach and you still fail. now who's fault is it.

so, just saying it is a team of coaches and players, and its still early in the year. by example, maybe your second tournament you will be ready and win.

Recipe for winning game against KC on Sunday, as usual, if offense plays consistent, limits turnovers, no dumb fouls, we should score some points, hopefully more than KC. I hope AJ and JJ are healthy above 90% this week.

And defense, if the guys are perhaps learning to play more consistent, recognize offense quicker, disguise defense better, and win the line battle for pressure on QB, should do ok in limiting KC points. Similarly I hope Mario and Pollard are atleast 90% this week. They both have sore shoulders.

Of course, special teams need to do better as well, kicking, punting, returns, blocking, limiting fouls.

I guess, i totally missed guess on score last week, so this week, guess its 24-21 for Texans.

[Arky]

Walter Cherepinsky of Walterfootball.com really likes the Texans in this matchup. So much so, he has made this game his October NFL Pick of the Month.

1. Last week was Kansas City's Super Bowl. The players and coaching staff had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. It was their chance to prove to everyone how good they were; for their entire bye week, they listened to the media constantly laugh, "Can you believe the Chiefs are the last undefeated team?"

Kansas City brought the kitchen sink against the Colts. There were onside kicks, creative defensive schemes and attempts on fourth down. Everyone on the Chiefs (except for Dwayne Bowe) played their hearts out. It looked like they had a great chance to win, but just ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. Indianapolis eventually wore them down, and when Mike Hart scored a late touchdown, everyone on the Kansas City sideline looked defeated.

Now, the Chiefs have to travel again to play a Houston squad that looked awful last Sunday. How can Kansas City possibly get up for this game? It's not like they even need to win because everyone else in their division is 2-3.

2. Speaking of the Texans, they were awful against the Giants. As mentioned though, the fact that Andre Johnson and Arian Foster weren't healthy really screwed up the game plan. In the wake of Houston's big loss, this line has dipped down to -4.5. Had the Texans won, we may have seen -5.5 or -6 on the board. We're getting solid value here with the host.

3. Houston is coming off a huge loss. So, what does that mean? Well, for one thing, they have a 72.3-percent chance of covering according to a trend I mentioned in the Chargers-Rams game. Teams that lose the point spread by 25 or more points are 74-36 against the spread the following week. But here's the catch - if they are favored, they're 34-13 against the number. Gary Kubiak is 1-0 in this dynamic.

The explanation behind this trend is simple. First, no one wants to bet on a team that looked inept the previous week, so that drags the line down (and as you can see below, most people are betting on the Chiefs). And second, teams that humiliate themselves have extra motivation to rebound the following week after hearing the national media bash them ad nauseum.

4. More cool numbers: Kubiak is 4-1 against the spread when favored after losing as a favorite. Kubiak is also 4-1 versus the number after losing at home by 10-plus points. And finally, Kubiak is a flawless 3-0 against the line going into the bye. The Hello, Goodbye Trend would apply if Houston were -6.5.

Again, I love the Texans here. I eyed this contest prior to last week's games. My plan was to bet Houston big if the Chiefs lost a close game to the Colts. Little did I know that the Texans would embarrass themselves against the Giants to garner extra motivation.


The Psychology. Edge: Texans. **
The Chiefs put a lot into last week's game at Indianapolis. They played incredibly hard, but ran out of gas at the end.

More info at the link. When Walter uses a two-star Psychology edge (like the Texans have), he's correct 67% of the time. Maybe it's just me but I felt a lot more optimistic about the team after reading this.....

[NBT]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

so, for sake of discussion,

consider an example -

you were in a class of 4 students studying how to shoot pool. none of you played before.

Now the teacher showed you how to cue the ball, how to chalk the cue stick, how to bridge over a ball, which ball to hit in sequence, how to block the other player, how to make bank shots, what were fouls, so on.

And all four of you got to practice and be critiqued for a month by the coach, atleast four hours a day, plus watching videos, reading theory.

Now you get to a two on two tournament to see which of you is the best.

Your side didn't sink one ball while the other team sank all its balls and wins.

what went wrong- the teacher? or maybe the student can't concentrate for some reason, or you hurt your hand two days earlier, or you did good but your partner messed up, maybe you lost your cool and scratched, ..., after three bad tournaments you get a new pool coach and you still fail. now who's fault is it.

so, just saying it is a team of coaches and players, and its still early in the year. by example, maybe your second tournament you will be ready and win.

Recipe for winning game against KC on Sunday, as usual, if offense plays consistent, limits turnovers, no dumb fouls, we should score some points, hopefully more than KC. I hope AJ and JJ are healthy above 90% this week.

And defense, if the guys are perhaps learning to play more consistent, recognize offense quicker, disguise defense better, and win the line battle for pressure on QB, should do ok in limiting KC points. Similarly I hope Mario and Pollard are atleast 90% this week. They both have sore shoulders.

Of course, special teams need to do better as well, kicking, punting, returns, blocking, limiting fouls.

I guess, i totally missed guess on score last week, so this week, guess its 24-21 for Texans.

Comparing an NFL defensive secondary to learning to shoot pool just doesn't compute with me. Like apples and oranges. But thanks anyway.