The upcoming Ravens game, 10/16/2011

[Arky]

The Texans take their 3-2 record on the road this Sunday with a late afternoon game in Baltimore. The Texans are coming off a home loss to the Oakland Raiders falling 25-20. OLB Mario Williams had a season-ending pectoral injury in the game. The Texans will need to play "clean" (limit turnovers, mistakes, mental errors, etc) to have any shot at victory.

The Baltimore Ravens (3-1) are coming off their bye week and have had no trouble in the their three victories. Baltimore's great strength is their turnover-generating defense. The strong Ravens defense helps make up for some of the weaknesses in their offense. The Ravens only hiccup was a road-loss to the Tennessee Titans where the Raven offense coughed up the ball three times to only one turnover by the Titans. Tennessee QB Matt Hasselbeck was able to throw for 358 yards in that game on 30 of 42 passing.

TV = CBS (channel 11 local), 3:05 pm CST

Announcers = Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf

Favorite = Ravens by 7 to 7.5

[WMH]

The way the D is playing, this could be a pretty good game (man, its nice to actually think that.....).

Saw in one spot the O/U is at 45, which I think is a bit high. Could be a slug fest.

We moved the ball quite well against the vaunted Ravens D last year, no reason to say we can't do it again, just need to punch it in. Thier CB's aren't exactly world beaters, but our OL has to hold up better than they did last week and give Schaub some time back there.

If they can stop Ray Rice, the way they shut down DMC, we could have a decent shot at this one.

IMO - The OL has to recover in order for that to happen.

[NBT]

The raiders obviously had us pegged with their game plan. They continued to adjust, we got players hurt and we did not adjust very well at all.

Kubiak was outcoached again, and Schaub looked like a deer in the headlights again. We missed AJ badly, but JJ didn't help any with his boneheaded botches.
The Oline has to come in for their share of the blame because they couldn't block the Raiders defensive schemes.

[Nconroe]

If we can call it a game at half time, Texans might have a chance.

[Arky]

The spread has moved up to 8 to 8.5 and even 9 on one sportsbook (Pinnacle). Whoa.

Walterfootball likes the Ravens to cover at 7.5 and even puts 3 "units" on it. His logic is the recent Texan injuries and the trend that "favorites coming off a bye are 99-53 against the spread since 2002". He also came up with this nugget for Texan hopefuls: "Texans are 6-3 ATS as underdogs of 6+ since 2008".

Despite that, I'm thinking it's going to be a closer game..... Ravens to win, Texans to cover....

[edo783]

Well, at least Dumbledork won't be calling Mario ... Merryo. Made my ears bleed when he did that.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by edo783

Well, at least Dumbledork won't be calling Mario ... Merryo. Made my ears bleed when he did that.

The general manager who drafted him says Merrio as well.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by chuck

The general manager who drafted him says Merrio as well.

That's that damn Yankee tongue.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Arky

The spread has moved up to 8 to 8.5 and even 9 on one sportsbook (Pinnacle). Whoa.

Walterfootball likes the Ravens to cover at 7.5 and even puts 3 "units" on it. His logic is the recent Texan injuries and the trend that "favorites coming off a bye are 99-53 against the spread since 2002". He also came up with this nugget for Texan hopefuls: "Texans are 6-3 ATS as underdogs of 6+ since 2008".

Despite that, I'm thinking it's going to be a closer game..... Ravens to win, Texans to cover....

Outside of a solid preseason, ole Walt is having a pretty rough year. I still like his write ups, even when he's bashing us, but his picks have not exactly been stellar this year. The public is betting up the line due to Mario and AJ news, that is pretty evident.

The Ravens offense is nothing to fear, the Ravens defense is certainly something to respect. Wish we had AJ for this one, but it is what it is. I still think we can move the ball on anyone, its just a matter of whether or not they can make 7's and not 3's.

The Texans D has played solid for 19 of 20 quarters this year, and I don't see the loss of Mario as a deflating factor in Wade's scheme. While I think he was playing well, 2 of his sacks came against Dallas Clark, and the one against Campbell....I was actually surprised he was credited with that one. Flacco ain't playing that great this year, and I would assume Wade will key on Ray Rice. If we can contain him they way we did McFadden, we could have a ball game if we can force Flacco into throwing.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by WMH

Outside of a solid preseason, ole Walt is having a pretty rough year. I still like his write ups, even when he's bashing us, but his picks have not exactly been stellar this year. The public is betting up the line due to Mario and AJ news, that is pretty evident.....

Yes, he is having a rough year. He's only about 9 "units" under .500 which is not that bad considering 11-12 weeks of football left.... He has finished in the money the last four years.... You can usually find his recap of the previous weeks picks in the first game of the next week. For example, this week he writes in the Rams vs. Packers game:

(on San Diego kicking a FG against Denver in the waning moments to go up by 5) The personal-foul penalty was the major issue. It was completely bogus. The official didn't even mention who committed the infraction. There was no number announced, and the replay showed nothing. Even the CBS announcers were befuddled. The refs, who actually did this twice in this contest, made sure San Diego covered at all cost. There's no doubt in my mind about this.

It may sound like I have sand in my vag, but seriously, no ref should ever be able to go, "Personal foul on the defense. That's a 15-yard penalty. First down." Personal foul on whom!? Give us a f***ing number! Don't leave the announcers saying, "I'm not sure what that's all about." And it's not like the refs did it just that one time. They did it twice in this game! Unbelievable.

Look, I know it sounds like I'm whining, but my main goal is to help people win money via betting. That's why all the content on this site has been and always will be free. I've been successful in my goal in the past, but this year has been different. I've had ridiculously bad luck with some of my picks, which is why I'm really frustrated. I'm confident I'll be able to turn it around, however.

It's kind of funny sometimes to read what people write to him when he's wrong on a pick, eheh... Of course, he hears nothing when he's right... Such is the life....

I don't think I've bet on football since 1982 when Joe Montana won me $200 in SuperBowl XVI making a lousy betting year a little more bearable. Well, other than doing the office squares thing. Yet, I'm still a little fascinated by the whole process of handicapping and belong to a number of free pickem websites... This year I'm doing pretty good on picking winners but not so hot against the spread. Still a lot of football left, though. I'll read what Walt has to say when I'm having trouble making up my mind on a pick...

Anyhoo, back on topic, I believe you are right on regarding AJ and Mario. Wouldn't it be nice for the Texans to shock us all with a win?

[NBT]

It would certainly smooth my ruffled feathers!

[Nconroe]

Okay, time to get ready for this game.

A few things to look for perhaps, probably plenty more, but its a start.

1. How is Brooks Reed performing, and others, in place of Mario.

2. How is JJ, Derrick, and others performing in place of Andre .

3. How are special teams, KR, PR doing?

4. Is OL back to run blocking and thus a chance for passing to follow.

5. Can DL stop Baltimore run.

[WMH]

From PFT:

6. The Texans listed Andre Johnson (hamstring) as out for a second straight week. Fullback James Casey (pectoral) is doubtful. Clearly Casey’s injury wasn’t as devastating as Mario Williams‘ pectoral injury.

7. The bye week didn’t solve Baltimore’s injury woes. They still are without three key members of the secondary. CB Chris Carr (thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (ankle), and S Tom Zbikowski (head) are all out. WR Lee Evans (ankle) is out again, so wideout Torrey Smith gets another start.