Quote:
Originally Posted by nunusguy
AFC South:
Indianapolis 9.5
Houston 8.5
Jacksonville 7.5
Tennessee 5.5
That's about right, so looks like the Jags are right there with us and Indy battling for the AFC South title this year.
Jacksonville has now had two consecutive strong Drafts and their defense should be very good this year and depending on how Bortles does it could be a significantly better team which would mean a much tougher division, especially with Luck back and healthy.
And because we won the title last year we've got the most challenging schedule so 2016 is gonna be a difficult year.
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I think 7.5 is a pretty good number for Jax, and I think they are improving, but they were #24 in yards allowed and #31 in points allowed last year. I know they essentially add 3 highly regarded rookies (the 2 this year plus Fowler), but two of those guys are coming off serious knee injuries and none of them have any NFL experience. I seriously doubt they put a 'very good' defense on the field this year.
I think Indy is better than a year ago just because of Luck likely playing 16 games, but they have to pay him at some point and when they do they lose the $20 Million cap advantage they wasted the last 4 years. I would definitely go over, but I'd be shocked if Indy got to 12 wins. I think they're a lock for 10-11.
I think Tennessee is pushing Jax for the worst run franchise in the NFL. It's amazing in a league with teams going last to first every year, the Titans have been bad for ever, and they still look years away. I think they end up under just because there are fewer easy wins in the division.
I think Houston has had artificially above average records with below average play the last 2 years. I think we were closer to the team in the KC game than the team who won 9 games. I think our division is improving (how could it be worse), and I think we stand a fair chance of being better than our record and winning between 7-9 games. If Brock is better than average than that could get blown out of the water and we could reach double digits. I'm not yet convinced but I'm hoping to be wrong.