[Arky]

The The ESPN experts favor the Texans over the Chiefs 8 to 6.

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Walter brings up a couple of good points... namely the Chiefs have a game on Thursday Night Football with the Broncos right after the Texan game and (as Bob mentioned) the Titan loss on opening day last year. Curiously, he's going with the "over".

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It seems like some Chiefs fans are starting to catch on that Alex Smith isn't very good. I watched every preseason game this summer, and in the two home games, the crowd moaned and groaned when Smith didn't do things very well - including when Kansas City was blowing out Tennessee. Most sensible people who root for the team understand that the Chiefs won't be going very far with Smith at the helm.

Smith can play well versus teams with poor or mediocre defenses. The Texans definitely don't fit into that category. They have one of the premier stop units in the NFL, thanks, of course, to J.J. Watt. Perhaps the best player in the NFL, Watt will dominate the trenches in every game, but he'll especially be potent in this matchup because the Chiefs can't protect Smith very well. Kansas City's pass-protection issues will definitely be on display, as Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the rest of the Houston defensive front puts lots of pressure on Smith.

The Chiefs' only hope is to establish Jamaal Charles early and often. There are two issues with this, however. The first is that Andy Reid tends to have game-day management issues, often forgetting to give the ball to his best players. Second, the Texans signed Vince Wilfork to clog the interior, meaning anything positive Charles does will have to come as a pass-catcher in open space.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans, of course, have quarterbacking issues of their own, and those will be in full display against many teams this season. But perhaps not in this game.

The Chiefs will be without Sean Smith, who will be serving a suspension. Smith is the team's best defensive back, so not having him around will make things difficult against DeAndre Hopkins, who seems poised to have a breakout year. Kansas City will have to apply heavy pressure on Brian Hoyer as a result, and it may have success doing so. The Texans will be able to protect Hoyer well throughout the year, but when going against a pair of stud pass-rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, all of that gets thrown out the window.

Fortunately for the Texans, they could have success running the ball. The Chiefs had major issues containing the rush last year, and that was with nose tackle Dontari Poe in the lineup. Poe is injured, however, so there should be rushing lanes available for Alfred Blue.

RECAP: I view these teams as being even, so why are the Texans -1 instead of -3, especially with Kansas City missing two of its best defensive players? That doesn't make much sense to me. The Texans seem like the right side, especially given that the Chiefs could be looking ahead to their Thursday night matchup against the Broncos. Plus, there is Andy Reid's poor track record in Week 1 to consider. Remember last year's blowout loss to the Titans? Houston is obviously much better than Tennessee and should win this game, though I'm not crazy about it.


The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
The Chiefs have the Broncos in four days, but they are underdogs here, so they could be focused.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action. • Percentage of money on Kansas City: 53% (19,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.
• Opening Line: Texans -1.5.
• Opening Total: 43.
• Weather: Dome.


Week 1 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Chiefs 20
Texans -1 (0 Units)
Over 41 (0 Units)