I find the whole Moneyball idea of exploiting inefficiencies based on traditional thinking very interesting. More NFL teams are adding “analytics” positions to their football operations staffs. The Jags are supposed to be getting heavily into it, and Kubiak is going to have his director of analytics on the headset during games to advise him of probabilities in key situations. The Patriots have a guy named Ernie Adams who has been with Belichick for years to find him this kind of information.
On the video the coach said something about the difference in field position between the average unrecovered onsides kick and the average kickoff and return only being like 14 yards (at his level, I assume). I don’t think that holds up in the NFL.
They didn’t mention how going for it almost every time changes play calling. If you know that you have four chances to make a third down instead of three, that’s probably going to change your approach, especially on third downs.
One area that I think NFL coaches need to follow the numbers more is going for a touchdown instead of a field goal on fourth downs at or near the goal line. Even if you don’t score, I think the stats support the decision since it puts your opponent’s offense in such bad field position.
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