Here's a couple excerpts since I'm not sure I explained this terribly well -
"A little context is in order before we get to Romo, Schaub and the other NFL heartbreakers. Ten years of play-by-play data have set expectations for winning based on specific game circumstances including the score, down, distance, quarter, time remaining, venue and field surface. This data showed the Cowboys with a 55.9 percent win probability when they had first-and-10 from their own 20-yard line with 2:39 remaining in a tie game Sunday. The sack Romo took on first down reduced those chances by 7.7 percentage points. Then came the fateful pick, and, just like that, the Broncos had the ball at the Dallas 24. Denver's win probability stood at 77.6 percent, and the Cowboys were essentially finished.
. . .
"The pick-six Schaub threw on the third play of the Houston Texans' 34-3 defeat at San Francisco gave him one in four successive games, a record. It was also his least damaging of the four, by far, because so much time remained in the game. His previous three came deeper into one-score games, affecting win probability by between 24 and 39 percent on each. Those three killer picks give Schaub a league-high 14 in the "worst" category reserved for interceptions reducing win probability by at least 20 percentage points. That's five more than anyone else since 2008.
"Schaub needs a high pain threshold. He has thrown 64 picks since 2008, and 21.9 percent of those fell into the "worst" category. That's twice the league average and is the highest rate for any current NFL starter.
"The chart to the right shows the 10 quarterbacks with at least eight interceptions in the "worst" category since 2008. The final two columns show these plays in relation to total pass attempts. Schaub not only has the highest raw total but also has one of the highest rates per pass attempt. Although Drew Brees is tied for second with nine "worst" interceptions, his percentage is half of Schaub's.
. . .
"Some of the quarterbacks most closely associated with these costly interceptions also rank among the leaders in plays producing the largest positive swings. Fifteen of Eli Manning's touchdown passes since 2008 produced gains in win probability of at least 20 points, by far the most in the NFL in that span. Matthew Stafford (11), Romo (9), Tom Brady (9), Brees (8), Rodgers (8), Ryan (7) and Cutler (7) are next on the list.
"The total for Schaub? Two, tied with a group featuring Troy Smith, Stephen McGee, Shaun Hill, Matt Moore, Curtis Painter, Christian Ponder, Alex Smith and a few players whose careers remain in their formative stages.
"This is not an airtight measure. Interceptions aren't the only way a quarterback can significantly hurt his team's chances, just as touchdowns aren't the only way he can effect a positive swing. But if Schaub or any quarterback is going to give away games with so many killer interceptions, we might reasonably expect greater positive return on the other side.
"Schaub remains near the bottom when we expand the criteria from interceptions and touchdowns to include all QB action plays featuring win probability changes of at least 20 points. He has nine plus-20-percent plays and 16 minus-20-percent plays, producing a minus-7 differential that ranks second-worst in the league since 2008 among current starters. Philip Rivers is at minus-13, including minus-3 this season, but he has done enough right to trail only Peyton Manning in Total QBR this season. Schaub ranks 27th in QBR, one spot below Geno Smith and one ahead of winless Eli Manning."
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