Quote:
Originally Posted by nunusguy
Very interesting: 1st round & 2 round downsides are equivalent, but the first round has a higher upside than the second, according to the stats.
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In the article, I broke it down further:
Even among the elite players that I counted, the elite of the elite (if that makes sense), trended heavily towards round one.
However, when you factor in that a 1st round pick is equivalent to 2 second round picks, it also became clearly that dropping into the second round was a much surer way to get at a quality player- With two picks in the 2nd, a team had nearly an 80% chance of hitting on one quality player... much higher probability than the 60% chance with a single round one selection.