Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
I don't mean to be blunt, but this is sorta the point: Welcome to 2009. The NFL's barometer for salaries increases significantly every year.
And lest we forget, Daniels was in the Pro Bowl last year. Actually, if memory serves, he had a pretty good game, too.
Yes, this interpretation worries me some. Are some fans damning him because they perceive the Texans as employers of a TE-friendly offense?
Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5
Bronco Leading TEs:
2006 Tony Scheffler 18-286-4
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4
You have to go back to Shannon Sharpe before you find numbers as good as Daniels'. And Sharpe's stood out among other Bronco TEs, i.e. Sharpe is the reason Sharpe was good, not just the TE-friendly offense. He was a Hall of Fame finalist this year.
Daniels has out-performed Putzier and Scheffler, the former who knew the offense better when he arrived in Houston three years ago, and the latter who was picked two rounds before Daniels. Maybe Daniels is the reason Daniels is good?
I am hopeful Casey is Daniels v2.0. Actually, I think Dreesen gets a chance before Casey. But no one knows for sure how good they can be and how soon.
btw, an extension or a re-worked contract isn't out of the question for Angry Dre, especially if his deal falls out of the top 10 or something.
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Interesting analysis, Keith. I especially liked the full article treatment on the front-page. I'm not sure I quite ready to agree with it, but it provided good food for thought. And any analysis that actually provokes thought gets a two thumbs up from me
My thoughts are that Owen Daniels is a good tight end (maybe even very good) but not elite. Essentially a Todd Heap-type rather than an Antonio Gates - certainly nothing to sneeze at and better than most of the league, but not a scary guy. And I'm not sure whether I would want to allocate significant cap resources to a tight end unless they were all-world (and whomever Daniels signs his next contract with will surely be allocating some serious coinage.) Going back to the table you posted on the front page, I come to a slightly different conclusion about the table you posted.
Quote:
Daniels:
2008 70-862-2
2007 63-768-3
2006 34-352-5
Bronco Leading TEs:
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2001 Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0
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I'm not so sure that those numbers don't point to a tight-end friendly offense. First off, it should be noted that Desmond Clark was also a significant portion of their offense in 2000 and 2001, putting up 339 and 566 yards respectively in those years. So another version of Denver TE production could be expressed like so:
Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0 + Desmond Clark 27-339-3 = 64-820-3
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6 + Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4 = 85-865-10
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3 + Carswell 21-189-1 = 82-875-4
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8 + Carswell 6-53-1 = 68-823-9
2004* Jeb Putzier 36-572-2 + Carswell 22-198-1 = 58-770-3
2005* Jeb Putzier 37-481-0 + Stephen Alexander 27-170-1 = 64-651-1
*H-Back/FB/TE Kyle Johnson also contributed 9-126-2 in '04 and 17-160-5 in '05, but, as the slashes indicate, considering him just a TE is problematic.
Texans TEs:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5 + Putzier 13-125-0 = 47-477-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3 + Putzier/Dreesen 10-94-3 = 73-862-6
2008 Daniels 70-862-2 + Dreesen 11-77-0 = 81-939-2
There are a few things I take away from this grouping. One is that OD provides the lion's share of the Texans TE production. In contrast, the Denver years have two years with split production and in the other years only once did the 2nd TE fail to pick up 170 yards. My interpretation is that this probably occurred due to a few factors. One, Daniels has been considerably better than our 2nd tight ends and has been durable enough be on the field almost all the time. The blocking TE, Bruener, the Texans have paired Daniels with was also not going to see many throws aimed his way. The other thing I notice from this grouping, though, is that the Broncos combined TE production has been similar to the Texans in the Kubiak offense. The average for the years cited for Denver TE's is 70-801-5; the average for Texans TEs is 67-759-4. If you throw out Owen's rookie year, the Texans averages are 77-900-4.
If you just compare the Bronco's top TE's to OD you get:
Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
Average: 47-593-3
Owen Daniels:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3
2008 Daniels 70-862-2
OD Avg: 56-661-3
While I think that Denver chart gives a less clear view of Denver's TE dynamic, I think it's interesting because of the players involved. Dwayne Carswell was an oversized blocking TE who would convert to the offensive line late in his career; only 3 times in his career did he exceed 200 yards receiving (the two mentioned, plus one year at 201 yards.) Desmond Clark disappeared after the 2000 and 2001 campaigns, not matching his 2001 timeshare season again until 2006 when he came out of witness protection for Ron Turner's Bears offense. Sharpe, at the end of his career, was able to average 728 yards and 5 TDs at the ages of 34 and 35 in this offense.
The worst two years on the Broncos list belong to Putzier who has only 19 receptions since the 2004-05 campaigns and couldn't even muster a decent timeshare in Houston despite knowing the system. Even Putzier averaged 525 yards in his years as the #1 TE. For a guy whose done nothing since even as he entered what should have been the prime of his career, 525 yards per year makes it seem like you should be able to plug anyone whose hands aren't made of stone into this offense and get a solid level of production.
This isn't to say that Owen hasn't been better than his Denver predecessors. He has been and I think he's been a pretty good receiving weapon for us. But I'm not sure if he's worth paying him the numbers he will likely get when we can likely get decent production for considerably less money. I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line. I'm wondering if the Texans might be thinking they might be able to match OD's production with a Casey/Hill pairing that would be similar to the Clark/Carswell grouping that combined to produce OD-like numbers. I think these next 8 months or so will be quite interesting to watch how the front office and coaching staff manage this situation.