Texans-Falcons Trade In The Works?
 

Jadeveon Clowney is spending extended time with the Atlanta Falcons this week, raising the possibility that the Texans and Falcons might work out a trade for the overall number one draft pick.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/sto...-falcons-again

On the surface, all parties seem to be agreeable to this with the terms themselves apt to be the main sticking point and whether the Texans might get better offers.

Even though Fanspeak in their simulator often pitches the Falcons sending their first four picks to Houston, I don't think that will be all that likely. I could see Houston getting the first three (1-6, 2-5 and 3-4) or perhaps (1-6, 2-5 and 4-3) or perhaps next year's first thrown in (1-6, 2-5 and Atlanta's #1 in 2015.

I think the Texans would really prefer to take Khalil Mack or Blake Bortles. I don't think Mack will tumble that far but Bortles might and the Texans may be just as happy to have the extra picks and either OLB Anthony Barr or OTs Greg Robinson or Jake Matthews.

If the Texans have six players acceptable to them, I could see them making this trade. If there isn't, however, there may still be one more option: the Eli Manning option. After Manning was taken by San Diego, the Chargers dealt him to the Giants before the first round was over.

Let's say the Texans and Falcons put a deal in place but the Texans will only agree to it if the Falcons have the chance to choose Mack and/or Bortles. In that scenario, the Texans will choose Clowney at 1/1 and wait until the Falcons are on the clock. Then the Falcons will choose, say, Bortles and then both teams will announce they have traded Clowney for Bortles plus the remaining Atlanta picks pre-agreed before the draft began. That way, both teams are ensured of getting what they want and if the Falcons don't have a good choice at #6 then the deal is off and the Texans keep Clowney and the Falcons can make their pick at #6 for themselves.

The only downside to such an arrangement is that if someone else came forward with a better trade, the Texans would likely refuse out of consideration to Atlanta.

I think conditional deals are discussed with teams before the draft routinely but they are rarely revealed to the public because there is no point in upsetting either the fan base or the players with the thought that a certain player doesn't have the full support of their front office. This would be a special case, just like the Manning-Rivers trade, because part of the deal can already be expected to happen.

It's a possibility and I've heard radio already talking of this....

I like Mack but I'd rather have JFF than Bortles. Many are saying the Jags will probably nab JFF.....

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I think this is one of the most highly anticipated drafts in recent memory...

Anyone else notice the new draft dates in early May fall exactly between the SuperBowl and the first pre-season game? I think this is by design.....

Less than 2 weeks to go...

The more I look at this, the less I like it. I consider there to be 4 elite players, and none as elite as Clowney. Mack is my 2nd highest guy, then Watkins, then Robinson.

Moving to 6, IMO means reaching for a QB, and missing on a more solid pick.

The trade will have to blow me away in order for me to pull the trigger.

Depends on the compensation and also how big of a drop-off you have. In a deep draft where the 2nd and 3rd rounds have a lot of great talent, the chance to double the number of picks there is a definite consideration. Particularly since one of our top three picks is almost guaranteed to be a developmental QB who won't pay dividends for a couple of years.

And who/how many elites are there? Any Peyton Mannings? Any Lawrence Taylors? Any Adrian Petersons? Any Reggie Whites?

Honestly, I'm not even sure Clowney is in that company although I think he's the closest this draft has to offer.

So, if you are drawing your drop-off line at four, then don't trade lower than four. If you're drop-off line is six, don't trade lower than six. If your drop-off line is ten, don't trade lower than ten.

Personally, I'm at six (Clowney, Mack, G. Robinson, Matthews, Barr or Bortles). Watkins will probably be taken by somebody and, with any luck, Manziel and Bridgewater are taken to improve our menu of options.

(I've recently played the simulator with trading down to 8 but it keeps spitting out Mack when I do this and I think there's no way in hell Mack falls to 8 unless photos surface of him with Donald Sterling.)

But I don't want to fall to six unless the compensation gives me what I want which is either Atlanta's 2nd and 3rd or their 2nd this year and their first next year. I might okay the 2nd and 4th this year and a second next year. I just want to gobble up guys on the second day where the real value is.

Depends on ones draft board, one might want atleast one more draftee evaluated acceptable than position one trade for.

So I might have Barr in position 15 and consider any trade as low as position 14 depending on how many day 2 picks offered.

1. DE | South Carolina Jadeveon Clowney
2. OT | Auburn Greg Robinson
3. WR | Clemson Sammy Watkins
4. OLB | Buffalo Khalil Mack
5. QB | Texas A&M Johnny Manziel
6. QB | UCF Blake Bortles
7. OT | Texas A&M Jake Matthews
8. QB | Louisville Teddy Bridgewater
9. WR | Texas A&M Mike Evans
10. DT | Pittsburgh Aaron Donald
11. CB | Virginia Tech Kyle Fuller
12. FS | Alabama Hasean Clinton-Dix
13. OT | Michigan Taylor Lewan
14. CB | Oklahoma State Justin Gilbert
15. OLB | UCLA Anthony Barr

I've been hearing that the Texans are willing to wait until the fourth round to look at a quarterback. If so, I'm pleased because I'm not at all sure that the possible ceiling of guys who will likely be around in the fourth is that dramatically different from the possible ceiling of the three or four guys everyone's talking about as being the first quarterbacks off the board.

There's no urgency since we already have Fitzpatrick, Keenum and Yates who have all made starts in the NFL. If there's not a quality candidate, they should wait until next year's draft or seek another opportunity.

There's been some talk of drafting two QB's - one early, one late. If that happens, probably a lock that Keenum and Yates are both out the door, i.e. OB getting "his" guys in here....

Think I heard somewhere that Falcons say they don't plan to trade up.

I'm guessing it's Clowney or a trade down. I hope they can find a trade partner because I don't want a replay of the last 7 years where we take the physically gifted DE with questionable motor to build a defense around with the hope that if the defense is a good enough we can get get by with an average QB acquired with a 2nd round pick. Where have I heard that story before?

Isn't that what Seattle just did?

This year best player may not be a QB so what do you do? Probably not good to reach for a QB?

This site has interesting Superbowl QB history.
http://www.drafthistory.com/index.ph..._quarterbacks/

Sure. And somebody won the lottery this week too. Doesn't make it a high percentage plan. For one, Seattle's success makes emulating them much tougher. Manziel is the closest to Wilson in this draft, but in part because of Wilson's success, he's probably going to go in the top 5, not the 3rd round. So, can't copy them in that way. Also, I'm constantly perplexed by people who are terrified of the Texans picking a QB in the first round because they may get it wrong yet invoke Seattle. In order to follow Seattle's lead, you don't just have to get the first pick right, you need to get most picks right and find a diamond in the rough QB to boot. If you don't think the Texans can identify the best QB when they have the pick of the litter, why do you think they can do it in the 3rd round? And why do you think they are going to start landing All Pros in the 4th and 5th rounds? It wil require them doing all of this to be like Seattle.

As for what i think the Texans should do, pick the QB you think has the best chance of developing into an elite QB, unless you absolutely don't think any of these guys have that potential. To me, this was part of the job O'Brien was hired for and is his first real test. With the rule changes and the way the game is evolving, the position is too important. I don't care if there are a couple other guys who are higher rated. If the QB pans out, he's worth more than them.

So we should have taken David Carr over Julius Peppers in 2002 and Vince Young (or Matt Leinart) over Mario Williams in 2006? Great thinking.

The Texans have been here before, not once but twice. The one thing they didn't do the previous times was to trade down for more choices. That's what I'd like to see them do since even the elites seem to come with red flags.

Otherwise, how about using 1/1 for the guys with the fewest red flags - Jake Matthews or Khalil Mack?

A question might be from interviews with new coach, what type of QB might he prefer?

Seems one answer is QB must be a smart QB who can take pressure.

Perhaps Mittenberger and Bridgewater would be top two O'Brien likes.

Just a guess on my part for this discussion.

Then who of say top QB might still be available at top of second round?

Maybe these two? So no QB panic to get a good one.

Might be in third you see Garrapulo or Savage still available while speculating, also could develop .

And if draft were last week as it should we would already know.

That must be why everyone is pining for the Mario era. Despite being the better pick but at the end of the day, we had nothing to show for it. Even if you get it right, it doesn't matter if you don't have a QB. We didn't win many games as a result of taking him. In fact, you could make a pretty strong case that VY, despite being the clearly inferior player, nevertheless contributed to winning more than Mario did. That's why I think you have to try and get the QB right. It's worth the risk. You want to take a safe RT? Because last year's playoff teams were a who's who of the league's premiere RTs?

You seem to think that if you build a good enough team at all other positions, you can get by with an average QB. That worked fine in 1985. Not now.

Lots of talk right now about this tweet.

@ESPNNFL: RT @LRiddickESPN: Hearing rumblings of a potential draft day trade that could blow the top off of the draft involving the QB position.

Some think it means Cowboys trading with Texans.

But who knows.

The Cowboys would have to give up a ton to move up from 16 to the top spot.

In 2012, it cost the Redskins their 2012 1st (#6) and 2nd (#39), 2013 1st, and 2014 1st to go from #6 to #2 to get RGIII.

In 2011, it cost the Falcons their 2011 1st (#26), 2nd (#59), and 4th (#124) and 2012 1st and 4th to go from #26 to #6 for Julio Jones.

I'm not sure that the Cowboys would have enough to offer to get me to move down that far if I were the Texans -- the top guys would be long gone by then. I'd also want more picks in this draft than future picks, because of the depth this year and because while this roster obviously has some significant holes, it's not a long-term teardown/rebuild job.

Jerry does love to be seen as a wheeler and dealer (even when it involves trading up unnecessarily) so it wouldn't surprise me at all if he where trying to make this happen.

Cowpies have more holes than we do. Their #1 is too far down so that would mean a top player from their current roster would have to be added in, IMO. Other than Tyron Smith, they don't have anyone else I'd want and Smith is too expensive. Maybe Dez, but we really don't need him much, and again, he's going to be expensive. No way it's the Cowpies. Probably just draft rumors and smokescreens. God I wish the draft would just get here!!!

Personally, I think Riddick's tweet is more about the Rams, Bradford, and Johnny Football. I'd give the Rams a #3 or a #4 for Bradford if he'd renogotiate.

Video - 2:35 mins.

Texans might pass on Clowney at 1.1