Arian Foster a potential holdout?
 

Haven't really seen this addressed anywhere but based on my admittedly limited understanding, I think there is a real possibility that Foster holds out next year.

Currently, he is an exclusive rights free agent. I suspect he is going to want a long term deal that pays him in the top 5 of RBs. As RBs generally have fairly short shelf lives and are constantly at risk for injury, I certainly couldn't blame him for seeking a long term deal after leading the league in rushing and clearly being the best player on the team (for around $300,000). Plus, even though the Texans still have his exclusive rights, he (or, at least, his agent) are surely well aware of the fan's backlash for the season and Kubiak's retention and that the Texans have little goodwill left. If they don't get his contract done and try to lowball Foster, I think it would be a PR nightmare. I think there is a very good chance he will recognize all of this and attempt to capitalize on it.

Ain't much he can do about it really. I don't expect them to back up the Brinks truck....remember, its a "system" ;)

I do expect a tender at a higher than minimum level, whatever that means when all this madness shakes out, but as far as a hold out, I don't see it, as he really doesn't have many bargaining chips.

Sucks for him, as he had a PHENOMENAL year, and probably deserves to be paid as such, but I don't see it happening this go around.

Found this thru a google search at http://football.calsci.com/FreeAgency.html

Exclusive-Rights Free Agents (ERFA)

An Exclusive-Rights Free Agent is an NFL player who is not under contract, but has only two years of NFL experience. If his former club makes him an offer at the three year veteran minimum salary, then that's it, he has to take it or leave the NFL. These guys have no right to negotiate with other teams. They are "free" only in the sense that they're free to quit.

I think the Texans will do the right thing here. They will reward him even if its through incentives. I cant imagine a player of his calibre playing another year at the league minimum with no roster bonus or incentives. That would be the cheapest nut punch in NFL history.

I did a quick search of recent contracts given out to RBs. Steven Jackson signed a 5-year, $50 million deal, with $21 million guaranteed three years ago. I would be very surprised if Foster's agent doesn't ask for something along these lines, as this is three years old now. I also think the Texans will have a hard time paying anywhere near this. I hope I'm wrong but I see a showdown on the horizon. If history is any indication, the Texans have not done a great job handling these showdowns lately (Demeco, Dunta, OD). I think it will be interesting to say the least.

And while I disagree that the Texans have all the leverage (I think the fans will overwhelmingly side with Foster), even if they do, this could lead to a Dunta situation where one of our best is forced to play for less than he thinks he's worth. Not a great outcome either.

yeah, hard to know who to believe in those negotiations, OD atleast likely wishes he would have accepted their offer instead of holding out.

I guess they will make a fair offer to Foster, hopefully he will take it without trying to break the bank or hold out for absolute no. 1 money. Hopefully Texans and players have learned something on all of this.

I won't worry about this until there's a next season.

After the Domanick Davis, Ahman Green and Steve Slaton experiences, I wouldn't expect McNair to go overboard on a contract for Foster.

I think McNair will treat Foster fairly, but not $10M/year fairly. Something in the $1.5 to $3M/year range would be pretty fair for both sides.

The Texans didn't open their pocketbooks for Slaton after his big season. Granted, Foster's was even better, but the Texans have the leverage regardless.

No offense, but I don't think you've looked at what NFL players are making lately if you think $1.5 to $3 million is fair for the league's leading rusher. Last year, 31 year old Chester Taylor got 4 years, $12.5 million (a little over $3 million/year) to be Forte's backup in Chicago after rushing for a whopping 338 yards the year before. 32 year old Thomas Jones got 2 years/$5 million, and I seem to recall people complaining that the Texans didn't offer this for him because $5 million is basically nothing in the NFL. And this is the high end of what you think the Texans will or should offer?

That is what those guys got as free agents. Foster is not. NFL players know that Free Agency is their payday. Teams know that you have to overpay in free agency. Foster will want to make more money and everything else is speculation right now.

Of course, things may change with a new CBA, but in the NFL salaries don't matter as much as guaranteed money. The agents love to announce Player X just signed for $40 million and it sounds impressive until you realize that only $10 million is guaranteed and the other $30 million are incentives and staying on the roster for the length of the contract, etc. or comes with a buyout clause.

Baseball teams do the same thing except their contracts can't have voidable years because of what's in the CBA, which is why the Astros are stuck with Carlos Lee's $18.5 mil/yr albatross. Most NFL teams would get rid of a Carlos Lee simply by voiding the remaining years of his contract.

I wouldn't blame the NFL for keeping that part of the CBA intact and the NFLPA for trying to remove it but the difference is that the MLBPA is a much stronger union than the NFLPA (either that or baseball owners are more chickens--t).

Since running back is such a high-injury position, pay no attention to whatever money they offer Foster. Pay attention to the amount that's guaranteed.

All your points are undoubtedly true. However, the reason I listed these deals is that they represent what has been paid lately to sign RBs to a long term deals and Foster's agent will almost certainly rely on them to come up with an asking price, free agent or not (and I don't think Steven Jackson's deal was a free agent deal) . I don't think Foster's agent is going to look at these contracts and then see which ones were given to free agents versus otherwise. He's going to see what the market price is, period, then formulate an asking price from this.

And as for it being speculation, of course it is, but hey, it's January and the Texans are home as usual. What else are we going to talk about?

Anyway, my whole point is I doubt the Texans will be willing to give Foster a huge payday. Sounds like most here agree with me as y'all keep telling me the Texans have all the leverage and they learned from Davis, Green and Slaton. However, I don't think Foster or his agent will see it this way and will want big bucks. While he may not be able to do much about it (accept holdout a la Vincent Jackson), I would prefer that one of our few special players not be disgruntled and angry at Texans management going into what is essentially only his second year in the league. Seems like most don't share my concern, but what can I say, I'm quickly becoming the most pessimistic guy on this board (take that, Chuck!).

i think those of you who are dismissing the possibility of a holdout are crazy. maybe it doesn't happen, but if he wants more than what the texans are going to offer (and if the difference it big) i think a holdout is definitely on the horizon. my only hope is that since kubiak and smith pretty much have to win this season (if you believe mcnair), then maybe they will make an offer to foster that he will be fine with. if he threatens to holdout, or actually does, i would bet there will be a number of teams trying to work a trade for him that will happily pay him a boatload.

Joshua, I take no offense as long as it is open minded debate. The fact that Foster is not in a position to bargain very much, I thought the 1.5-3M figure was doable. However, as someone said, the damned agents keep sticking their finger in the pie hoping to come up with a big splash. I also heard somewhere that since AF was not a "drafted player", that his free agency would automatically escalate to 3 years instead of 5. All he has to do in that situation is be patient for another year, and then hit the big jackpot. Assuming he keeps up his gaudy numbers.

Would the Texans really think they would have leverage? Im not so sure about that. Derrick Ward would have to find the youth fountain to carry the load for a full season. Backup Ben Tate has not even played a single regular season down. And then there's Steve Slaton... umm, yea that's a whole lotta leverage huh.