Playoff possibilities & why Houston should be more optimisitc
 

I don't necessarily think this entire town is being very optimistic about the current playoff situation and possible scenario. Do we control our own fates anymore right now? No. But I think people are starting to lose sight of what makes the NFL (and hell sports in general) such incredible leagues and that is because anything can happen and anybody can win. We all have seen teams win and stay in their seats at the stadium in hopes that somehow some way things will all fall into place. And whether you guys want to make fun of me or not I think it is very valid to think this can be a very likely scenario this year.

Breaking it all down the current standings and remaining schedules look like this:

Overall / Conference Record / Remaining Schedule
5 - Denver: 8-5 / (6-4) / vs. Oak, @ Phi, vs. KC
6 - Jacksonville: 7-6 / (6-3) / vs. Ind, @ NE, @ Cle
x- Baltimore: 7-6 / (6-4) / vs. Chi, @ Pit, @ Oak
x- Miami: 7-6 / (5-4) / @ Ten, vs. Hou, vs. Pit
x- N.Y Jets 7-6 / (5-5) / vs. Atl , @ Ind , vs. Cin
x- Pittsburgh 6-7 / (4-6) /vs. GB, vs. Bal, @ Mia
x- Tennessee 6-7 / (3-7) / vs. Mia, vs. SD, @ Sea
x- Houston 6-7 / (4-6) / @ Stl, @ Mia, vs. NE

*- Now something I am not mentioning that is also very important is a game between San Diego and Cincinnati this week. This game is vital because both of these teams play some of the teams that are ahead of us and we need both of these teams to play as many meaningful games as they possibly can. What we need is for Cincinnati to pull off the W because that will leave the 2nd seed and 1st round bye in the balance until the final weeks. If San Diego wins they all but clinch the 2nd seed and 1st round bye.

Aside from that if you really break this thing down there are some very possible scenarios:

#1) Miami wins every game but loses to us giving us the Wild Card spot via the tie breaker, N.Y Jets go 2-1, Baltimore Ravens go 1-2, and Jacksonville goes 1-2. We win this scenario because Miami swept the N.Y Jets in their division so the Jets automatically get eliminated.

#2) We straight up end in a tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers and no other team at 9-7. If this happens we win the tie breaker because of the common games played (minimum of four). Because of their losses to Oakland and Cincinnati. While we split with Tennessee and potentially in this scenario beat Miami.

#3) Denver loses out while we win out and either of the 2 scenarios above happen alongside this.

#4) All other potential wild card teams just end up 8-8 while we go 9-7.

Now I know a lot of this sounds a little far fetched but in all honesty assuming something out of the norm happens I CAN see Jacksonville going 1-2. I can see Miami winning 2 of 3 (the loss being to us. Also quick tid bit we have never lost to Miami in our franchise's existence). I can see the NY Jets either finishing 1-2 or 2-1. More likely for them to go 1-2 if Indy tries to go for undefeated season and Cincy is playing for a 2nd seed and playoff bye. The one team I must admit that can and very likely will ruin this whole thing is Baltimore because yes officially they have the weakest path to get there and Denver because it doesn't take much now for them to clinch.

All this being said what I don't understand is by the last week of the season it is VERY likely that we ATLEAST be sitting at the edge of our seats throughout the entire New England game scoreboard watching or EVEN waiting it out after the game to see other scores like Tennessee @ Seattle or Baltimore @ Oakland or Kansas City @ Denver. This possibility in and of itself if it were to come true would be an absolute dream come true for me after seeing where this franchise use to be and where it finally potentially looks to be now and in my opinion should be reason enough to at the very least allow our coach Gary Kubiak to be able to complete his contract and see what we can do with 1 more year under his regime (the next year being a make or break year).

BUT and I yes I dare say the unlikely BUT what if our Texans do somehow someway make it as the final seed in the NFL playoffs. Do they not remind you of any team recently? Arizona maybe? Defense showing flashes, running game non existent in the regular season but has the potential of showing up in the playoffs, BIG TIME STAR WR to help carry us there. Aside from that think about the matchups. It is very possible that the #6 Wild Card team will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals. If we were to win that which I believe is very do-able (since the match up is good for us) being the lowest seed we would play the AFC's highest seed the Indianapolis Colts. We have played the Colts very tough this year and it is very difficult to beat the same team 3 times in the same season. And of course if we were to somehow win that we would be playing in the AFC championship against some really good team that would be ridiculously tough to beat but hey at least we could be there with a shot to potentially make the SUPERBOWL right? Look I'm not asking for everybody to just all of a sudden glow with optimism here but honestly isn't this what sports is all about? The UNDERDOGS, the UNLIKELY SCENARIOS, the MOMENTUM. I don't know about the rest of you guys but I will choose to be an optimistic fan until the clock of each and every single game hits 0:00 and our team is completely eliminated. And even then I will say well we can win the Super bowl next year. And no matter what I'm not jumping off the bandwagon of MY TEAM. That's what makes fanhood so fun for me. What do you all say?

Some see rainbows and butterflies others see a big pile of shiny crap.

#1) Miami wins every game but loses to us giving us the Wild Card spot via the tie breaker, N.Y Jets go 2-1, Baltimore Ravens go 1-2, and Jacksonville goes 1-2. We win this scenario because Miami swept the N.Y Jets in their division so the Jets automatically get eliminated.



....very possible, but what about Pittsburgh and Tennessee?

Actually in this scenario if Miami wins every game but the one against us the best record both the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers can have would be 8-8 because Miami faces them both.

However a REALLY crazy scenario which I did not post that can also come true is if the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and our Houston Texans all tie at 9-7 which is very possible. If that were to happen we CAN also win this tie breaker assuming the Jets sole loss didn't come to the Atlanta Falcons an NFC team. If their sole loss derives from the Indy or Cincy game even though they have us head to head I believe we still win this tie breaker because of the win-loss percentage in common games amongst the 3 teams combined together. Please don't quote me on that though I'm not 100% sure but more like 90% sure. I believe we have Pittsburgh beat by a good enough margin in common games percentage that it does not matter how the New York Jets do but just as long as one of their losses are to one of the AFC teams remaining on their schedule.

The Texans will need to run the table and come out 9-7 to have any chance. I wouldn't expect Denver to lose a playoff berth but there are ways to eclipse the other 7-6 and 6-7 teams with a three-game streak. Another key will be if NE rests their stars the final weekend because they'll have nothing to play for.

Texans blow out teams when they play meaningless games like the one against Seattle.... but then they plain blow it when the pressure games suddenly show up. They will probably blow out the Rams this week. Let's see how they do when the pressure starts again vs the Dolphins.

That was hillarious........

So it is not enough to play meaningful games in December with a chance at the playoffs this year, we neeed to clinch the Division. Eventually that wont be enough and we will need the Division and 1st round bye. Then undefeated, I guess sooner or later when Kubiak cant blow out other NFL teams 100-0 we will have to fire him.

There are 8 teams on the cusp in the AFC right now, all fighting for wildcard spots and even with the up and down season the Texans are one of them. Before last week we all but assured of having no shot for the playoffs. These scenarios are not stars and planets aligning with some holiday miracles and voodoo magic sprinkled in. All the Texans need to do is take care of the last 3 games and see how the league unfolds.

When was the last time the Texans played a game in December they had to win to contiue to have a playoff shot that was not unfeasable?

I think the Colts go to FLA tomorrow night and lose to the Jags, thereby effectively ending any long-shot hopes we have for the playoffs, not that those chances were very realistic anyway.
I dunno but think the Colts have just about everything wrapped they can wrap up and I suspect they will limit the amount of time their starters are in the game, plus they've got some legitimately injured players to rest and get well. The Jags on the other hand are still in the thick of the wild-card race and therefor have every motivation to pull out all of the stops and win their remaining games.

Not very likely, but a delicious scenario none the less.

That's the way I remember the 60's..... :p

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It's possible but extremely small odds. Despite what many are saying, the Texans still have a lot to play for. For many, they are in a can't win situation - lose and they are losers, win and they are still losers because they are typical-Texans-winning-when-it-doesn't-matter-yada-yada....

i actually think a win by sdg this week would be prefereable under your scenarios. they would still need to win next week against tenn to "clinch" the bye for certain (getting to 12 wins), i think. AND if they clinched in week 16, then nwe would have no reason to win against the texans in week 17 assuming they have clinched the east by then. of course, if cincy rests in week 17, that could be an issue as well.

all this said, if the texans win the next two they should go into week 17 with a chance to make the playoffs. if they don't, they won't. so hopefully they will win the next two, and we can start this discussion up the monday after christmas.

nice analysis of some possible scenarios, I'd be real pleased if we get to 9-7 given way things have gone so far. I''ll be watching anyways.

I thought Indys unbeaten season would come to an end last night vs the Jags, but that was based largely on my expectation that they wouldn't play their starters the whole game. Anyway they ended up partially resting Freeney and one or two other defensive guys, but as near as I could tell Peyton and the offense went the whole game ?
In what was a tremendous contest if you like offensive games, the Jags lost in the end the way we often do by making a mistake or failing to make a play as much as having Peyton beat you. At any rate, the outcome was a positive for us in our very, very long-shot of having any chances to land in the play-offs.

I am already throwing up in my mouth thinking about rooting for the Possum Eaters playing the Dolphins this weekend, but we need a Miami Loss, along with the Jets and Ravens losing.

If all three happen, then that makes next weeks game against the Dolphins interesting. Scary, but we have never lost to the Dolphins and we have played them 4 times.

actually, i am pretty sure you need to root for the fish this weekend unless you think tenn will lose another game. tenn has the tie-breaker against the texans if we both had the same records . . .I think

Wow, you are right. I feel better now.

The Colts victory on Thursday was the first baby step in the right direction of salvaging this season. We need to sweep the last three games and will need the Jags to lose once more to jump past them.

I can't believe you guys hold out hope for the Texans to make the playoffs. Aint gonna happen. They will beat the Seahawks and Rams but what they should beat them. They are really bad. They blew it when they lost 4 straight division games. Calculate all you want but but the answer will still be the same. Texans relaxing at home watching the playoffs on tv. And we will get another year of Kubiak's mediocre football because McNair likes Kubiak just like he did Carr and it clouds his judgement when making the tough decisions.

Look here fella......if you want to be realistic, go somewhere else :)

In message boards, dreams come true...until they don't.

Tell it to Hitler.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWnx__VqIGE



...this video has been re-done with subtitles a bunch (the Romo and Aggie ones are funnier), but since this deals with the Texans and their playoff aspirations, I figured it was appropriate in this thread. Enjoy.

I believe if the Texans win against the Rams, they will still be mathematically alive...i.e. some other teams victory can't eliminate the Texans at this point unless the Texans eliminate themselves...

Baltimore, I'd say, is the favorite among this bunch. They may very well end up 10-6....

Jets lost today and Miami lost against the Titans. Now they are all even at 7-7.... I hope the Colts go for the undefeated season so they can bring their A game vs the Jets. If we beat Miami then we go ahead of them. What about the Titans? If they end up 9-7 also then who gets the advantage? Hard to believe the Titans are 7-7 after 0-6. That team is gonna be a tough one to beat if they make the playoffs.

Teams in playoff hunt that are still playing right now are the Ravens and the Steelers

Essentially, we are one game behind Denver and Baltimore and tied with a bunch of teams at 7-7. This gets pretty easy to figure:

Win both remaining games and hope the tiebreakers shake out in your favor. That'll be tough because some teams (Jacksonville and Tennessee included) have the tiebreakers over us. But anything can happen when the NFL calculators start crankin'.

Hopefully someone can re-crank out the possibilities. I just like to know what would have to happen, even though I know it's not gonna happen.

Of course we split on head-to-head games with them, but I understand they come out ahead on the next tie-breaker (either division/conference record ?).
Their next game is SD, but it's in Nashville and not the WC.

Games this coming week

- Jets(7-7) @ Indy- Hopefully the Colts go for the undefeated season

- Ravens (8-6) @ Pittsburgh (7-7)- Who should we be rooting for here? And why?

- Chargers @ Titans (7-7)- This game is on Friday and the Chargers are undefeated in December since 2006. Hopefully that streak continues.

- Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots- Im hoping that the good Patriots show up for this game.

- Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles- Broncos are on a downslide so they can probably lose this game also.

- Texans (7-7) @ Miami (7-7)- Dolphins are probably pissed by the way they lost so this is gonna be a tough game. This game is HUGE for the Texans so i hope they dont vlow it.

All we have to do is win one game at a time.... It starts with Miami

CBS Sportsline runs thru all the scenarios.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standin...race/scenarios

Our tiebreaker situation is horrendous.......IF we win these last two. I think both wild cards will end up 9-7, but division/conference record....not so good for the home team.

BUT, there is a chance :)

perhaps an unlikely scenario is if we win our last two and everyone but Baltimore Ravens looses two we might have a chance. Otherwise, do we hold a tie breaker over anybody? actually everyone would have to loose atleast one and Denver has to loose two. ah, anyways, slim chance but its possible.

On one hand it's nice still being in the running this late in the season despite the long odds. But on the other hand, it's extremely frustrating that this team couldn't just take care of business early on and taken advantage of a fairly easy schedule and year in which the non-Division leaders in the AFC all suck. This season was our best chance ever at making the playoffs.

I haven't seen this discussed much so I am probably wrong, but Cincinnati losing their next two games (which are vsKC and @NYJ, so probably not likely) could be beneficial to the Texans as well since the Texans beat the Bengals this year. Right? The head-to-head tiebreaker here might not be as helpful though since there will likely be more than two teams at 9-7.

Makes me wonder if the Ravens winning over the Steelers might be not such a bad thing if the Bengals somehow find a way to keep their losing streak going against the Chiefs then Jets (assuming the Jets also lose to Indy this weekend).

Ugh, I feel a headache coming on.

Warning...Productivity Killer by Yahoo....Prepare to waste the rest of your day.

Allows you to pick winners and generate playoff scenarios. Here is my personal favorite...Texans as the 5 seed and Dallas out of the playoffs.


Sweetness
.

This is all contingent upon us winning out, of course:

Next Week: We need SD to beat Tenn, Indy to beat NYJ, Philly to beat Denver. Surprisingly, and as far as I can tell, it doesn't matter what happens in the Pitt/Baltimore game because one of them will lose and it will kill any of their tie-breakers against us.

If the scenario above happens, which I think there's a good chance of it playing out that way, we would need:

Week 17: Us to beat NE in the final and Denver would have to lose to .... ugh ... KC at home.

While I agree with you, the fact that we are even in the conversation is a step in the right direction. Who would have thunk that Pitt, Baltimore and Denver (considering thier start), and TN (considering thier start too) is even in the mix.

Parity gentlemen, that is what the NFL wants, and that is exactly what we have.

And, though unlikely we get to playoffs, first time since 93 Houston has had a team in the conversation for a playoff spot in the NFL. And there are like 13 other team in NFL who can't say that. And 9-7 Cardinals made it to SuperBowl last year. So, come on team, you gotta win the part we can control and see what happens.

I really don't see why people waste their time trying to calculate what it would take for the Texans to make the playoffs. At best we are in for another 8-8 season. That won't cut it. Again, our playoffs ended when we blew 4 straight division games in a row. Beating Seattle and St. Louis after that losing streak doesn't change anything. We are still the same mediocre Texans trying our best to reach .500 and stay out of the cellar of the AFC south. And that is after the Titans started out 0-6.

Same reason you are visiting a message board for a 7-7 team. It's the NFL, and it rocks!

Good times and bad, it is the most entertaining sport out there.

You guys need to quit inhaling the paint.

First off, we will lose to both Miami and New England. Secondly, we can't beat a single team mentioned in Fonz the Boss' post. We BARELY beat St Louis...barely.

Snap out of it.

Booooooooo COdude.....

We did beat Cincy pretty dominantly as best I can recall. ;)

Week 16:

San Diego has to beat Tennessee
Philly has to beat Denver
Houston has to beat Miami
Indianapolis has to beat New York
New England has to beat Jacksonville
Doesn't matter what happens in Baltimore/Pittsburgh

Week 17:

Houston has to beat New England
Kansas City has to beat Denver

....honestly? I'd put it at about a 20% shot.