The Safeties
 

The candidates:

Last year's starters
C.C. Brown (SS)
Will Demps (FS)

Contenders for SS:
Glenn Earl back from I/R, was looking good till hurt
Brandon Mitchell FA last year who spent the year on the PS

Contenders for FS:
Nick Ferguson veteran FA who is 33 (not good)
Brandon Harrison, 5th rnd pick, was on I/R, missed all of OTA's, and some of TC due to late graduation at Stanford
Rookie 6th rounder this year Dominique Barber, of the famed Barber NFL clan.

OK, I think Earl unseats CC Brown for SS.
I think Demps starts for us in game one at FS, and Brandon harrison is a backup.
Domique Barber goes to PS for a year of seasoning.
Brandon Mitchell is the odd man out.

Your thoughts?

I think Demps and Brown are the starters right now. Earl will depend on if he is really back from the injury. If he's not ALL the way back he could be gone...for now I'll give him a roster spot. I think Harrison is the other backup. Earl or Harrison could be a starter at some point this season.

Ferguson gets cut.

Barber to the PS....although if he manages to win a roster spot that would mean that we might have another diamond in the rough, and that is a good thing.

Demps is a lock to me. I dont think there is anyone back there more talented than he is right now.

Brown and Earl have the battle for number SS, but I think that Earl will ultimately win with Brown as the backup.

Between Barber and the Brandons there is too little known about them, and thier stock is about the same 5th, 6th, and UDFA. Barber will make the roster or PS almost assuredly.

I see us using hybrid safeties. Strong safety types with coverage skills. Our coaches seem to go for the larger body guys.

6-3 215 Mitchell
6-2 215 Harrison
6-1 215 Earl
6-0 210 Barber
6-0 208 Demps
6-0 208 Brown

The cutting of Cox says to me that Mitchell maybe moving up the special teams chart. Cox was a very good special teamer, and cutting him means someone has to have by passed him.

I think this year Demps and Brown start, with Harrison and Earl pushing.

To me, Harrison is one of the most intriguing players on the roster, mainly because hardly anyone has ever seen him play. I have noticed a number of fans saying Mitchell is better, but the draft gurus clearly had Harrison rated higher than Mitchell. The only reason I can think of for people thinking Mitchell is better is that he came from a program that is usually considered a better program. But if that is the best way to rate players, why don't we just skip the combine and draft all our players from LSU. I have no idea whether Mitchell, Barber, or Harrison is better, and I will definately wait until all three play in the preseason before I make up my mind. Hopefully, at least one of them has the makings of a solid NFL starter.

My purpose here was, not so much to predict who would start, as to how far we have come in so far as quality and depth are concerned. There will be a couple of guys here who get cut, or who go to the P.S., who could have started for us a couple of years ago. Seems light years ago now.

The concensus among you is that Demps and Brown will be our starters, and why not, that's how it ended up last year. However, from what they have been saying Earl is well and really lookd good in OTA's, so my money is on him.

Although we have more depth than at any time in our past, lets hope old injury bug picks on some other team this year, like the Colts, or Jags, or Tacks. you know what I mean.:D

indeedly doo. i think demps has a spot to lose from his gutsy play last year. brown probably has a spot until he makes one mistake which is unfortunate for him. but i think opening day demps/brown.

Stanford, Harrison's school, was nobody to fool with, as U.S.C. found out. Because Harrison was so late getting into TC last year, I am really looking forward to see how far he has come.

chron.com finally tells the current depth chart.

And as much as I like the intangibles of a veteran safety, I hope we do not cut a player that can play so we can keep a 33 year old guy. Now if the youngster will never be a player, say bye bye.

You know its funny, that is absolutely right. But what the fan base has been begging for for years and never had is a pure centerfielder type of FS.

the perception of that particular need probably changes if our smaller, quicker LB's can cover. LB's that cover who aren't named demeco, i know, i'm still struggling with the concept as well :D. i'm really looking for diles to step up and maybe adibi as well. if they can step up the coverage and take up more of the field that would give the safeties more air to breathe.

i look at the hybrid safety setup as an extension of two ideals that kind of go against what i think is more traditional defensive setup. 1 LBs who can cover 2 CBs who can support the run stoppage. we've got bigger than average CBs who aren't afraid to get physical and smaller than average LBs who are supposed to be good cover guys.

so the hybrid safeties fill in where needed, as support to run stopping or coverage. each safety equally free and strong. neat idea but i look and see one thing that may cause problems: safety size. perhaps it won't matter at all but i think the body types necessary for the "hybrid" safety is a little bigger than what our starters are. our 3rd string safeties (the brandons) fill that issue perfectly though.

Well playmakers are not made they are born, IMO. And we have not had any DBs on our roster since Glenn that was a true playmaker. Until we draft for that trait, we will not have that trait. IMO.

Maybe not......but under father Rhoades, let's hope they can be reborn a little.

bennett looks to be a playmaker. or a decent corner. i can't tell which because i'm biased to seeing faggins play uh-oh-cornerback.

we draft playmakers these days, just not so much in the backfield.
demeco has that trait, owen daniels, jacoby jones, fred bennett, slaton has the gene. we get a few every draft. production aside, they have the "vince young and espn's copyrighted term for vince young" factor.

I meant draft for playmaking in the defensive backfield. And I agree that Bennett shows signs.

ah, i see. :cool:

OVER/UNDER in the defensive backfield for 2008:

fred bennett interceptions: 6.5
dunta's return (games missed): 5.5
will demps' real arms: 1.5
games c.c. brown starts: 8.5
injuries: 2.5

i say:
over
over
under
under
under

I'm confused. Are yall saying that you don't think Dunta is a playmaker, or just that you think he may not be a playmaker when he returns due to his injury?

i don't think dunta is a playmaker. he's about as solid of a cover corner as you can ask for but i don't think he's the type of player that routinely changes how offenses play. what's the most interceptions he's ever had?

EDIT: it's 6. with 19 passes deflected, 3 forced fumbles, 3 sacks, 74 tackles with 14 assists. that was 2004, the only year i would've called him a playmaker. 1/4 ain't bad but it's time to do it again you know what i mean?

Yeah, but look at how many times teams threw at him. I swear, watching the games, you could go for what seemed like weeks at a time without a QB throwing in Dunta's direction. Now, that is partly because of the crap that has always been manning the other CB spot opposite Dunta, but also because he is so damn good. I think a team purposefully staying away from Dunta's side of the field is a perfect example of a playmaker. They are changing how they play because of him.

I wouldn't call him an elite cornerback (yet), but I would damn sure refer to him as a playmaker. And not just for his coverage skills either. He is very instrumental in run stopping on plays where the running back bounces to the outside.

Stats won't tell you everything.

Edit: Well, I've tried desperately now to locate a "Thrown At" statistic, but it seems no one keeps them. I maintain my belief that for the amount of attempts Dunta gets at either defending a pass or making an interception, he is as big a playmaker as just about any of the top cornerbacks. He just has fewer chances.

I disagree with you about how much teams really stay away from him. There have been occasions where they might have picked on someone else (I wonder who), but that had as much to do with the play of the rest of the secondary as it did with Dunta. It's just one example, but the Titans had no problem going at Dunta with the game on the line....the game where we made the huge comeback and then let it slip away after taking the lead. That was one of those cases where you just have to say that there guy made a good play. It's not like he got beat, but he didn't knock it away either.

Like I said, that's just one play. I think if you went back and looked at the tape and tracked just how many times teams threw his direction you would be surprised. I'm not saying he's not a very good corner, but teams weren't terrified to throw to his side of the field either.

I love Dunte and all but 11 ints in 57 games is not what I call a playmaker. Deion Sanders has playmaker stats, plus he can go to the house anytime he gets near a ball.

they tell enough. i totally agree with you that teams throw more at the (obviously, in this case) weaker cb but he does get his chances though and usually makes good on them. and even so, he still doesn't put up the kind of numbers that playmakers put up. we all love dunta, but he doesn't regularly change games. at least he hasn't in a few years...
man, i hate to do it...i hate to do this to dunta....
~by year~ 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007
DUNTA- 6, 1, 2, 2
A.Cromartie- X, X, 0, 10 in his first real year
C. Bailey- 3, 8, 10, 3
A. Sameul 1, 3, 10, 6
E. Reed- 9, 1, 5, 7
D. Bly- 4, 6, 3, 5
R. Williams- 2, 3, 5, 2
C. Woodson- 1, 1, 8, 4
B. Dawkins- 4, 3, 4, 1

just a few well known guys who are more playmaker (in the int. department anyway) than dunta in dunta's 4 years. putting roy williams up there hurt me a little but i won't ignore truth for homeristic thoughts.

KC Joyner usually tracks something like that, but you have to buy his book. I've got it from last year. I might get it again this year.....I'll try and remember to look and see what he's got on it in my older version, and if I buy the new one I will try to pass that along too.

Those numbers do sort of support that Dunta isn't thrown on much. Look at the first year. That was when Glenn was our premo CB and they threw at Dunta a lot and he picked them off. Looks like they backed off once the saw what he could do and the had easier pickings with Faggens and Mr. Ole. The way we have been playing defense, where they are responsible for a side of the field probably means he isn't able to make those plays where a CB sort of freelances and goes to the other side during the play and winds up getting a pick. Some of those guys on the list kind of play like they a free safeties.

The Titans game actually kind of makes my point for me. In that game, the reason why that play that Dunta gave up at the end was so surprising was because he had been solid all game long. There was a pass on him early where he gave up like 18 yards, but after that they were all short gains and he broke up a couple passes as well as made a tackle for a loss. He was having a great game, and then that last pass that he defended really well, but somehow that ball just managed to get through his hands. It sucked, but it was uncharacteristic, which is why I feel it makes my point.

You could argue that the opposing QB threw to the other side of the field because that other CB sucked, and that it wasn't because of DRob's skill, but there really isn't any way to prove that argument.

papabear, you say I would be surprised how many times he was thrown at. What do you think his "Thrown At" numbers are compared to other highly skilled CBs? Do you think he was thrown at more than half of them? Less? I'm hoping you can track down your old copy of the KC Joyner book and see what the figures were for 2006.

Just from watching Dunte in games, I get the impression that when he is up against a much taller receiver, which happens a lot, he is athletic enough to break up the pass but not athletic enough to go up and take it away from him. On the rare occasion where he gets a chance to jump a route, I think he can do that as well as anyone in the league. I also think he is excellent on the blitz but because of team philosophy he hasn't gotten much of a chance to use his talents. Hopefully that philosophy will change somewhere down the road.

When he was opposite Faggins and it was 3rd down, it seemed like the other team almost NEVER threw to Dunte's man. Maybe because they were afraid Dunte would make a play.

some of those cats ARE free safeties edo.

also, i have stated just as clearly as you have that i hold the same belief of dunta not being thrown at as much whenever he was the stronger of the two corners. however, the list i threw together in about five minutes are of guys who are no secret to me or the wide world of football. they were all still able to produce numbers reflecting their "playmaker" titles, so why hasn't dunta? ::ack this is killing me:: it's not like they only threw his way twice and he picked both of them, hell if i remember right one of his picks this year was off a tipped ball. anybody can pick a tip, very little cornerback-specific talents get involved in that. "playmaker" as i use it is more for the special athlete/gaudy number types. sportscenter highlight frequenters. this isn't what dunta is or really has ever been....

what he is: a smothering cover corner with some "ball skills", as ferocious as a tackler from the corner can be, lightning quick, all heart-terrific emotional leader, and hell on wheels blitzing. too bad he doesn't do much of that these days...

he does have some competent fellow defensive backfielders to protect him this go around though. maybe we will see more of the "playmaker" dunta like from his rookie season and less of the "people have to make an argument to prove he is a playmaker rather than just him being a playmaker and everyone knowing it" dunta.

agggghhh.....

i feel like i'm ripping on dunta and i don't want that. so to compensate i have to make everyone remember the hit he put on the...titans?....tight end!! omg, that dude was a solid 40ish pounds more than dunta (taller too obviously) and dunta stopped him cold!!! i wasn't able to sit down for like the next 10 minutes because of his fearlessness!!!

I really didn't feel you were ripping on Dunte, just making a pretty good argument. I just thought of another thing in Dunte's favor, though. A defensive back's ability to be a playmaker is in large part determined by how much pressure the defense is putting on the QB. When a QB is hurried, he tends to make poor throws or poor decisions, which a great CB can make him pay for. It would be interesting to know how many plays other top corners would be making if they played for a team like the Texans which does a poor job of pressuring the QB.

How many of those guys had an opposing corner as bad as Faggins, though?

Our Safeties
 

I believe that Will Demps has one spot sewed up now. I don't see anyone supplanting him. The other spot is up for grabs. The intangible I am excited about is what effect Ray Rhodes will have on their play. Demps can lay the wood when he has a mind to. I would like to see some safety play that strikes fear in opposing WR's making a catch over the middle. Demps and Dunta Robinson type hitting. Can't wait for training camp. Should be some good battles with the depth we've built up.

as bad as petey? probably not. but it's not like champ bailey had stud guys across from him. dre bly never had much help until he was paired with bailey and that wasn't the duo from hell that it should be because the rest of the denver defense sucked last year.

asante sameul never had a huge amount of support across from him, though he did play on some tough all-around defenses.

papabear, were you able to find your KC Joyner book?

I forgot about it last night....to busy getting ready for the fourth. I'm out of town untill monday. I'll try to remember to look monday night....cause i leave for germany tuesday. I have a long weekend of floating in lake sam rayburn, drinking beer and eating crawfish. ahead me of though so in all likelyhood you will have to remind me again.

i know where the book is I just have to look up the info/

I am now wondering what kind of tandem jacque Reeves and Fred Bennet will be before Dunta gets back. It will be a lot better for the CBs this year, to have deep zone support from Will Demps, and either C.C. Brown, or Glenn Earl. With a better passrush from the Dline and better linebacking, the secondary should be much improved.

It is time for the injury bug to visit some other AFC south team!

I finally pulled it out....the article that recently got posted from Joyner reminded me. I'm pulling these numbers from his CB cushion chart. He list how often a CB lined up at the various cushion depths, and how many times they were thrown at at those depths, how many completions, yards, TD, INT, pen, and Yards Per Attempt along with the CB's success rate.

He shows 64 attempts at Dunta. 42 for Faggins. Faggins was hurt that year and only played in 11 games though. The only other Houston CB he list is Lewis Sanders who had 32 attempts thrown his way. That's 74 for the other corners vs. 64 for Dunta. I do think these numbers would be a little more favorable for Dunta if I had this past seasons data, but not a drastic change where it's obvious that teams were afraid to throw at him. Faggins got rattled in a couple of games and teams went at him hard.

Now there is some subjectivity here. for example, if a player catches a ball while he's sitting in between two defenders playing Zone....which one is being thrown at? I know these aren't perfect, but it matches some of what my opinion is based on watching him play. He's a good corner, but not one teams are scared of.


I know some people hate stats, and Joyners methods are far from the end all be all. He's even admitted that he's probably a little hard on Dunta because the majority of people are so high on him. I disagree with his assessment of Dunta in general, but I'm still sticking by my comment that teams don't shy away from Dunta all that much. I think he has the ability to be an elite corner (hope he still does) I just don't think he's there yet.


This is a post over at DGDB&D with some email traffic between Matt and KC Joyner on dunta.
http://www.atexansblog.com/2007/05/29/dunta-robinson-provokes-email-flurry/