The upcoming Tennessee game (12-14-08)
 

The Tennessee Titans are coming in with the best record in the league and have already clinched but still have a bit of motivation to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It doesn't get any easier for them after the Texans as they face the Steelers @ home and Indy on the road to complete the season. Indy may just want to make a statement in that final game....

The Titans are 3 to 3.5 pt. favorites depending on who you check with.

The Texans need to play a clean game, stop the run and in passing situations, I want to see Kerry Collins running for his life - a lot...

From the they're baaaacckkk department: Gus Johnson and Steve Tasker will handle the play-by-play....

Weather looks really nice. Daytime high of 73, low of 59 chance of showers.
Should be a nice afternoon at Reliant. Can't wait to get there and cheer the hometown boys.

It would really be nice to beat the Titans. Seems we have had many close , could've won type games with them over the years with little to show for it up to now.

I think we've got a shot this weekend vs. the Titans after the way the Texans played this past Sunday in GB on a short week of prep. This is a "rival game" as they say in college and I expect the Texans to be focused. Then after this weekend I say we shut it down and play, maybe even start rookies like Moulden and Barber and Okam, etc. Lets get a look at them and give them some regular season experience on an extended basis.
Of course Kubiak won't do that. He'll try his damnest to win as many more games as possilble even though the wins would be meaningless in the longer term and will actually decrease the value of the Texans Draft position and unnecessarily raise expectations even higher for the 2009 season.

I'm with Kubiak. While the draft is a team's lifeblood, I think it's more important to try to instill confidence, winning attitude, etc. in the team. If these guys can develop a little swagger and learn a little more about how to put teams away over the final month of the season, I'm willing to drop 4 or 5 spots in the draft for this. Pull up any draft over the last decade and half the 1st round picks are mediocre to busts. Having a top 15 picks does not guarantee anything (except giving an unproven college player a boatload of money).

The idea of losing in the NFL for draft position is ridiculous. Sure, on draft day someone I like will probably go a few spots ahead of us, and I'll be pissed. The fact is though that the success or failure of draft picks is so hit and miss that the only thing being higher in the draft guarantees you is that your will have to spend more money.The NBA is another story because one player can make a huge difference...which is why the NBA went to a lottery system to try and keep teams from tanking.

Outside of the top 5-10 picks the contracts aren't necessarily potential cap killers. I think being a mid to late round pick gives you more flexibility too. Look at how few trades happen with the top picks. I think it's easier to make a move if you want to from the middle of the first round....hopefully down.

agreed, if they could win out i think going into the offseason on a 6 game win streak (or winning 5 of the last 6) would be much more valuable than a few draft spots.

Nobody here is advocating throwing a game or instructing players to perform at something less than maximum effort. But if the reserves can beat whoever
they play against, then great and the younger guys get some important real game experieince and the coaching staff gets an opportunity to evaluate them all at the same time. Anyway, what was the benefit of winning the season finale last year against the Jags when they rested many of their starters ? And it sure as hell wasn't the impetus for a good start this year as we went 0-4 in Sept ! IMO no difference between 8-8 or 7-9 for the '07 season.
And if one would rather be farther back in the Draft order, just trade that first rounder to move back and with the boot maybe you'll get another Steve
Slaton type value like we did with the trade in this year college Draft ?

Well, one difference if we were 7-9 instead of 8-8 last year is that we would have been picking somewhere between 9 and 15, rather than 18. Not sure how the tie-breakers would have fallen but there is a decent chance we would have been able to draft Chris Williams (LZ said several times that the Texans were high on him and would have drafted him if given the opportunity). He then promptly had back surgery and has missed virtually the entire season. Also, with him available, we likely would not have traded back and thus, no Slaton.

I'm not saying that anyone is advocating throwing in the towel. Just making a point.

I'm all for playing the younger players more...as long as they have given the coaches some reason to think they deserve it by practicing well and/or playing well when given the opportunity. Not because I had a guy highly rated on my personal draft board.

quick pet peeve: We were missing just as many starters as the Jags were, except ours wasn't because of choice. Neither team had anything to play for but pride.

What would have been the benefit of losing it? OK, a higher draft pick...which has just as high as a potential to be a bust as a later pick only with a higher cap cost. Without the benefit of hindsight there's no way that the team, or anyone else, can guarantee that we end up with a better or worse player.

One benefit of having some momentum going into the off season could be in retaining your own free agents. AJ made comments about how tired he was of losing. Does he re-sign if he doesn't like the direction of the team a couple of years ago? Dunta's made similar, even more outspoken comments, and is headed towards free agency. Owen Daniels is probably due a contract extension. It's all unfounded speculation, but I would rather guys like that to end the season with a good feeling about the team so that when they have to decide on whether to sign an extension or test free agency they are more likely to stick around.

I would love to, but it's easier said than done. Because of the uncertainty of the draft there are always a more teams looking to move back than the other way around. Most teams would rather lower the financial risk while at the same time increase their chances of hitting a home run on draft day by having more choices. That's why most fan sites are always clamoring for their team to trade down. Sure there are trades on draft day, but usually big ones are rare. Teams move up a few spots, or teams that have stockpiled extra picks are willing to take the gamble. The fact is it's very hard to find someone willing to give up much to move up.

Theoretically, the more options you have when your pick comes up the better so being at the top of the draft order is a good thing. We wouldn't have Mario right now if we didn't have the first pick a few years ago, but we really didn't know what we had then...and most "experts" thought we were crazy. Hindsight makes that decision look easy now. I was someone who wanted Mario over Reggie well before the draft, but no one knew how it would all turn out. Being farther back in the draft gives you a lower financial risk with just as good a chance of finding a special player IMO.

I do want to be last in the draft because we won the Superbowl though :D.

Well that's all very hypothetical, but OK 2 can play that game. Suppose besides Chris Williams we also have a chance to draft Ryan Clady (who went at #12), the LT in the Draft who is playing at a P-B level in his rookie year ? Given the opportunity to take him I imagine we would have surely jumped.
As far as Slaton goes the pick was in large part dumb luck just as the 4th round pick of another Texans RB, Dominick Davis, was several years ago.

Well if we knew back then what we know now, we would have cut David Carr in 2006, drafted Jay Cutler and lived happily ever after.
But regarding the value of Draft picks, its arguable that the least valuable pick in the Draft is the #1 because its so expensive cap-wise. But after the #1 (and maybe #2 and #3 for the same reason), most agree that the higher the Draft pick the more valuable. But I really think the trade value of Draft picks are more a function of the individual players in any given draft and the needs of the teams in that Draft.

I think we have a shot as well. It puzzles me to see this ongoing fascination with Frank Okam. Has he even made a tackle in his time on the field? Has he even flashed anything? Molden and Barber are not ready and our safety play has been decent with Ferguson (who I hope is healthy) and Wilson. Molden coming from the small school is being brought along slow.

Okam's made a few nice plays (2 or 3), but far more he's been pushed around and been ineffective...more so than our other DT's which is saying something.
I'm all for giving the young guys a chance, but they need to earn it during the week and I can't make that call. Playing young guys just because they are young is a bad idea. You'll lose the veterans in a hurry if they don't think the kid deserves it.

While it's only my speculation, I think the fascination is driven by two things. One, the belief that he has 1st round talent and we could potentially have the steal of the draft if only we could coax it out of him. Second, since he's a Texas guy, he is somewhat different than most 5th round linemen in that most people around here had heard of him. Unless you really follow college football/draft closely, it is unlikely that the average NFL fan will know much about a 5th round DT. For instance, 3 DTs were taken in front of Okam in the 5th round (Carlton Powell, Jason Shirley, and DeMario Pressley). While most have heard of Okam, I doubt many know much about these guys.

So are we mathematically eliminated?

From the playoffs? Yes. Baltimore has 9 wins which is the most the Texans can accomplish and Baltimore beat the Texans head-up...

That's a shame. I mean, I know we couldnt make the playoffs anyway, but it's always fun to still be officially alive, ya know?

Yep.

What's it been ... like 15 years or so since a Houston pro football team has been in the playoffs? That's too long.... There's always excitement in the air when you're contending for or get to go the playoffs. Hopefully, these guys (Smith and Kubes) are building us a perennial playoff contender.... I don't have too many complaints, I can wait. 7 years? Ha! That's a mere pittance after being an Oiler fan...

Exactly my point. My statement was made somewhat tongue in cheek. If he had come from any school other than UT, nobody would give a flip about him. I have watched every snap this season and my recollections are that he plays slow and he plays high and has not been effective.

As sorry as this sounds, he is not better than TJ, Zgonia, Robinson, Nading....

I am pretty happy with the LT they got in the draft. I wouldn't trade Slayton and Brown for Clady right now, maybe in the long run, but not at this point. Also, while I am happy to bash personnel decisions made by this team, smith and kubiak have done a pretty good job in the drafts so far, so I am not going to call them picking slayton "dumb luck", unless you are saying him still being there is dumb luck. of course that can be said about a lot of players, but that is how winning franchises are made and sustained (the texans are not one, but the draft is the way to do it). I guess you could also say that brady being picked in the 6th round was dumb luck, but i will take that kind of luck every year, of course, the patriots consistently have good drafts, so maybe picking players in later rounds isn't all "dumb luck" after all.


p.s. slayton is playing at a pro bowl level in his rookie season as well.

People get entirely to worked up about this kind of thing...Anytime a "local" college player is successful they are going to get extra attention. Throw in the fact that many people had Okam as a first round type pick at one point, and I understand the extra attention he gets. It does get a little ridiculous sometimes, see Vince Young, but people are always going to be interested in the players they cheered for in college. I know a guy who follows the Texans for no other reason than Petey Faggins and Zach Diles were a couple of his favorites from his alma mater K-State...yes even he admits Faggins sucks. There's a lot UT fans in this area. It's going to happen. Any time a Texas college has a high profile player there's going to be a group of people who want the Texans to take them. It doesn't mean it's the right thing, but it's only natural.

I'm about as big a UT fan as anyone. I never wanted Vince. I didn't think Derrick Johnson fit our system at the time. I questioned Charles between the tackles. I thought just about every one of the highly touted Longhorn DB's was over-rated/hyped. I've been as hard on Okam as anyone.

Texans had 2 picks in the third round of this years Draft in which they selected Antwaan Moulden followed by Steve Slaton. So like I said, dumb luck. And the Brady pick in the 6th round by the Pats wasn't dumb luck, it was incredibly dumb luck. No, make that World-Class dumb luck. But I would agree with your remark about Slaton & Brown vs Clady - I'd also be hard-pressed to make that trade. But as you say, its still too soon to know for sure about that comparison.
But except for Okoye (who's starting to look like a 4-letter word that begins with "B"), Smith & Kubiak get an A for their Draft performances so far. Now if
only we could get the same kind of results out of their FA selections ?

Its not dumb luck.

Now is their an element of luck involved? Sure. The Texans tried to draft a good 3rd down back and accidentally got a good back. They still had to scout him and like him more than the other 200 or so guys available at the time. So if anything, I'd call it "smart luck."

By the way, the Patriots drafted Brady on the word of one scout in their organization who liked him. When asked about it, the guy who ran their draft that year said "yeah we're real smart. So smart we passed on him 5 times."

So obviously luck plays a role, but it's not like we crossed our fingers and Steve Slaton appeared. You have to give credit, otherwise you can't blame a team for being unlucky on a bad pick.

By that rationale you could say MArio Williams was dumb luck...or any pick in the draft for that matter, and you would be at least partly right.


I still thinks it's way too early to call Okoye a bust. He might never be an all pro, but if you can just get a solid starter out of the first round you are ahead of the curve in most cases. I would say Okoye has been less the solid, but considering his age when drafted and the position he plays making any kind of judgment on his career before he finishes his second season is pre-mature.

A buddy of mine just sent me this link. It is SI's redraft of this year's 1st roudn of the draft based on performance so far . . .Brown and Slayton are in the top 12


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...x.html?eref=T1

Dumb luck?

More like, doing your homework and being ready for the draft when its your turn.

Don't you honestly think that had the Texans had a "clue" how extremely valuable Slaton potentially could have been to their team, they would have at the very least used the first of their two third round picks to draft him ?

I absolutely think they had a "clue." I think they had a clue they were getting an explosive runner with home run speed, which is exactly what he is. On the flipside, they were probably somewhat skeptical of his ability to pick up tough yards between the tackles and to withstand NFL punishment. Luckily for us, so far he has quieted these fears. However, in my book, perceiving potential weaknesses in a draftee's abilities does not equate to being clueless. I also think they knew they were getting a very raw product in Molden who may take a few years to develop and they are not at all surprised that Slaton is paying quicker returns.

agreed, or they felt, correctly, that slayton would still be there at their next pick and molden might not be given the value of corners in the nfl

I have watched every snap as well. I shave a lot of games on DVR, and I have seen Okam play.....but honestly, I don't think he has stood out in a good or bad way. He almost made a nice play in the backfield last week, but he hasnt been pushed around any more than our other DTs. UT has nothing to do with any fascination. It was widely accepted among scouts that Okams talent level is very high.....the question is his motor. Some say that has to do with a change in schemes at UT. Anyway, coaches will tell you that it usually takes 3 years for a DL to develop. I can tell you that Glenn Dorsey didnt stand out in any games I watched this year as well. I have not watched every KC snap....My disclaimer....I can't speak for everyone, but for me, my reasons are simple.

1. I am on a 3 year plan
2. He needs some experience. Sorry, but I have seen Zgonia pushed around so much, it tires me. He is a great locker room presence, but he has slipped a lot this year.
3. He does need to earn pt....I concede this point; however, there is a point you begin replacing veterans with youth as the season concludes. I think this is what most are asking.....See what he can do on the field. After all, there is a difference from the practice field and the playing field.

Seems like people may be talking about 2 different things. If you're talking about what NFL scouts thought of him, I agree that UT probably had little to do with it. However, I understood the question to center around fans' fascination with him on message boards, etc. The fact that he is from UT most definitely plays a role in this. People went crazy when the Texans passed on Derrick Johnson. People went ridiculously crazy when the Texans passed on Vince Young. People immediately started calling for the Texans to sign Cedric Benson when he was cut. If you think it was simply happenstance that all of these guys were from UT and this didn't play a role in why certain fans wanted them, you're crazy.

1) Bob McNair is not on the same plan. gary Kubiak also not on that plan. The goal is to win. Win as many games as possible and play whoever gives that best chance.
2) You earn PT in practice. Anyone who has played any level of football understands that. Okam level of play went down after the NC year. Hence, his draft stock fell. He had time in camp/preseason to earn time. He did not earn time.
3) Veterans and players who are going to be here want to win. The wanted to beat SF years ago even if they lost the #1 pick. You play who gives you the change to win. Too bad for on the job training. This is the NFL. Vets don't deserve to lose a job to a rook.

1. Mcnair's timetable has nothing to do with the development of a DT. Kubiak is on a timeline of development, but I would think he wants to see improvement. Again, this is an entirely different point and another subject altogether. If your point is correct, then one must always pursue free agents. You have to allow rookies to learn and play, while juggling veteran players who are better. If you don't, then your team will always fail.

2. Anyone who has played football will tell you that you do have players who don't perform as well on a practice field as they do on playing field, or perform great on a practice field and stink it up on the playing field. There are a lot of reasons why this is, and anyone who has played sports knows this.

3. This is correct, but it also shows if you live for the here and now, you will lose. Kubiak has stated he should have played Diles, Walter, and Bennett sooner than he did. I am not saying this is the case for Okam, but merely saying that a good organization understands the long term development of the team may be a little short term suffering. All the practice in the world is completely different when the cameras start, the crowds are there, and the pressure is on. Again, anyone who plays sports knows this.

Where do you come up with this stuff?

Bennett played as soon as he was healthy his rookie year. Kubs never expressed regrets.

And Diles and Walter prove the opposite of what you are arguing. They did a great job in practice and earned PT (thus coach saying I wish we played those guys even though they had never performed on sunday). Both guys just did such a great job in practice that they could not be kept off the field. Thats how both of them were starters here by the beginning of their 2nd season even though neither was highly regarded. They earned it. However, Kubiak has never said anything like this with Okam. In fact he has said the opposite. He has said Okam does not practice like a pro.

Right now you have no good reason why Okam should play other than (1) he is young, and (2) even though he is no good in practice he MIGHT be good in a game.

Okam is a young guy. He will either work hard, get better, and earn snaps, or he will practice poorly, never see the field, and be out of the league. Why is this so hard to understand?

[QUOTE=sinnister;6279]I have watched every snap as well. I shave a lot of games on DVR, and I have seen Okam play.....but honestly, I don't think he has stood out in a good or bad way. He almost made a nice play in the backfield last week, but he hasnt been pushed around any more than our other DTs.QUOTE]

Your argument and logic is so bad, I almost missed that pearl.

"He almost made a nice play." That is really good. I almost scored with a really hot chick but just missed. Instead I ended up with the fat one with zits.

Does than mean that "insert CB's name here" almost made a great play, just missed and got burned on a 99 yard touchdown.

[QUOTE=Mike;6304] LOL.....My point was that he hardly played.....and yes, he missed a play in the backfield.....he did disrupt the original play....Great pearl you found.

Kubiak has stated that he wished he would have played Diles, Walters, and Bennett earlier. Bennett was hurt, but he didnt start as soon as he got healthy. He was back for awhile, but Petey kept getting torched. Then they went to Bennett.

Bennett was hurt and missed all of training camp. Then he got healthy after camp and DURING his rookie season. Starting by midseason for a rookie who missed all of camp may be a record. He was on the field as soon as possible. Show me a quote from Kubs that says otherwise.

As for Diles and Walter... like I said, you've got two guys who practiced hard, drew praise from their coach, and earned spots. There is no correllation to Okam.

The correllations for walter and diles are Deljuan Robinson and Jesse Nading. Both are hard working young players who have performed well enough in practice to EARN their way into the DT rotation.

The way you make it out, Okam must be not do anything. You say he doesnt practice hard...Show me a quote where Kubs has said this. The only thing I have heard Kubiak say concerning Okam and where he was as a player was that he had a lot to learn. As for Fred Bennett, he started after Duanta Robinson when he was injured. As I remember, it was after that Kubiak made a statement about he should have probably played him more, but he felt like Petey was "better" at the time. I will see if I can find the quote, or maybe someone else can provide that.

This is becoming pointless. You think Okam is lazy, and he may be. I don't know that. If he is as lazy as you are making him out, then he should be cut; however, I doubt he is as bad as the rap he is getting.