2nd Half Reset
 

Believe it or not, the 5-3 Texans would be the sixth seed in the playoffs if they started today. Here's how the AFC looks after eight weeks:

New England 8-0
Baltimore 5-2
Indianapolis 5-2
Kansas City 5-3
Buffalo 5-2
Houston 5-3
============
Jacksonville 4-4
Tennessee 4-4
Pittsburgh 3-4
Oakland 3-4
L.A. Chargers 3-5

Offensively, the offensive line appears to be regressing. The false starts are especially a problem. Watson is spending too much of his time running for his life or spinning out of trouble. Hyde and Johnson have been a decent 1-2 punch and Watson has found a new weapon in Darren Fells to join DeAndre Hopkins.

Defensively, the loss of Watt hurts and the secondary is in shambles but they've been able to hold up decently up until now. The only game they really looked bad was against Carolina.

On special teams, I wish we had a better PK than Fairbairn but he's league average. I don't think we've had a real threat on kick returns since Andre' Davis (2007-09).

The second half schedule shows:

vs JAX (@ London)
BYE
@ BAL
vs IND
vs NE
vs DEN
@ TEN
@ TAM
vs TEN

That looks like a 4-4 finish or maybe 5-3. That's right on the border of making the playoffs but there are so many teams that are virtually out, one has to look at the rest of the AFC and realize we could be 9-7 and get the last spot by default.

Having tiebreakers with Oakland and the Chargers might be keys. We're also 4-1 in conference record, tied for second in the AFC with Buffalo behind you-know-who. After head-to-head, conference record is the second tiebreaker except with division foes.

My point is that we need not obsess over beating Indy. If they win the division, we can still make the playoffs unlike many previous AFC South seasons. If they can keep Watson healthy and heal up at key spots, their chances at returning to the playoffs (and likely getting embarrassed) seem better than 50-50 insuring O'Brien keeps his job another year.

Clint Stoerner on 610am was making the point that if the Texans can take 2 of the next 4, (Jax, Balt, Indy, NE - pick 2), then they go into a somewhat easy part of the schedule with the final 4 games (Denver, Tampa, Tenn x2). So, say they go into the final 4 games at 7-5, then a 3-1 finish or better is possible for a 10-6 or an 11-5 record.

That's optimistic, for sure. Playing Indy, NE, Tenn and Denver at home helps... but an unexpected bungle like losing to the Jags tomorrow could throw a wrench into everything.... We'll see, I guess...

Wow...Texans look good going into their bye week. Revised Week 9 standings (conf record):

Patriots 8-1 (6-1)
Ravens 6-2 (4-2)
Texans 6-3 (5-1)
Chiefs 6-3 (4-2)
Bills 6-2 (4-1)
Colts 5-3 (4-3)
========
Steelers 4-4 (4-2)
Raiders 4-4 (2-2)
Jaguars 4-5 (4-3)
Titans 4-5 (2-4)
Chargers 4-5 (2-4)

I got beating the Colts as the #1 priority over the next three games. These division games are like double value (double win or double loss). You get a division win/loss and a conference win/loss. Since losing the first match-up to the Colts, that Thursday-nighter at home (vs. Colts) is pretty much a must-win.

If the Texans are truly contenders, then at least beating one of Baltimore or New England should be doable. I'd prefer a win over the Pats but either one would be fine. Two losses would be hard to stomach but made more palatable if they were close, hard-fought games (although we've seen that movie before).

Sweeping all three would be highly unlikely but if it happened, man, everyone and their ugly sister would be talking about the Texans....

Beating the Colts will be easier if Brisket is still out and we get to face Brian "The Playoff Destroyer" Hoyer at QB.

I'll be shocked if the pass-rush-less Texans can beat either the Ravens or the Patriots but the Patriots might be easier than trying to chase down Jackson, plus we get the Pats at home with some extra rest and the Ravens may have exposed a few weaknesses. They no longer look so unbeatable.

I fully expect them to go 1-2 during that stretch but they could go 4-0 the final month, in which case they finish 11-5 with either the third seed or the fourth seed where they will eventually die in the cold tundra of Baltimore or Foxboro.

Update: Per Mortensen, Brissett has an MCL "sprain" and could play against the Dolphins if needed for Week 10 but will likely be held out for caution and because, well, it's the Dolphins at home.

The Colts play at home against Jackwagonville before playing the Texans so it is likely both Brissett and Hilton will be healthy again by our game against them (drat!).

Also saw an item that said Keke Coutee was held out against the Jaguars not for injury but because of "lack of attention to detail". O'Brien also added that Keke is "a great guy" so I guess the coach likes him even though he doesn't remember what he's doing out on the field, like maybe running the right routes or throwing a block when called upon.

We ought to be using Stills more anyway. If you've noticed, Stills grabs the ball with his hands while Fuller and Coutee tend to body the ball against their chests, not trusting their hands alone to make the catch. Hopkins and Stills use their hands which is what you should be coached to do. Fells also uses his hands while Akins is more of a body-catcher.

Hopefully, Hopkins, Stills and Fells stay healthy so the Texans are not left with an invasion of the body-catchers. (har, har) :p

In the still-a-little-too-early dept., Fivethirtyeight has the Texans power ranked 8th with an 84% chance of getting into the playoffs.

They also have a calculated spread on the upcoming games. For the Texans next 3 games it goes like this:

Baltimore -3 vs. the Texans

Indianapolis +5 vs. the Texans

New England -1 vs. the Texans

Sometimes these are close, sometimes not to when the actual spread comes out. Injury and good or bad play can change things but it should be give one an idea of the possibilities....

HOU and JAX off this week. Titans with a miraculous win over KC and the Colts succumb to the hapless Dolphins.

Buffalo loses while Oakland and Pittsburgh pull out big wins. The revised AFC playoff standings (conference records in parentheses):

1. New England 8-1 (6-1)
2. Baltimore 7-2 (5-2)
3. Houston 6-3 (5-1)
4. Kansas City 6-4 (4-3)
5. Buffalo 6-3 (4-2)
6. Pittsburgh 5-4 (4-2)
==================
Oakland 5-4 (3-2)
Indianapolis 5-4 (4-4)
Tennessee 5-5 (3-4)
Jacksonville 4-5 (4-3)
London Chargers 4-6 (2-5)

Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, division record is next but only for ties within the division and conference record is third. Houston has only one conference loss which can be a big help in tiebreakers.

Houston has the head-to-head tiebreaker (if needed) with Kansas City, Oakland, Jacksonville and the Chargers. They currently would lose a tiebreaker with Indianapolis but have a chance to eliminate that if they beat the Colts in two weeks.

Texan defense really needs to up their game when they face the Ravens next weekend - Ravens lead the league with 33.3 pts/game.

Early line has them as 4½ pt favorite over the Texans....

4-1/2? Definitely take the Ravens, man, before Vegas comes to their senses.

I think it's going to be close. Well, either that or we get blown out. :p

Can't wait for this game. I tell ya, the Texans have shown some encouraging things, it's nearly mid-November and we are still talking playoffs, etc. As a fan, enjoy it while you can..... Too many seasons have started in the toilet only to remain in the toilet - it's tons more fun to be where we are at now....

The Texans will have most of their secondary healthy thanks to the bye week but I just see them chasing air all day as Jackson runs through them like a hot butter knife. Watson will try to keep it close but he won't be able to stay up.

I honestly think beating Brady will be easier than beating Jackson.

I think we just gotta wait and see what happens. Not being snarky, here, but if I knew who would win and by how much, 1) I wouldn't bother to watch the game and 2) I would bet my house on the winner.... Ya know? :cool:

Good Jackson is better than Good Brady these days. But bad Jackson shows up a lot more often than bad Brady. If he is completing passes downfield and Hollywood Brown is beating our secondary deep it will be a long day. They start rolling downhill with a power running game and taking the top off when we creep up.

But if they don't play with a lead and Jackson is forced into obvious passing downs he turns back into a not very accurate 2nd year guy.

I like our chances of beating Baltimore far more than NE. I also think we have the better QB in the game. I just think their coaches have been masterful at getting to what Jackson does well.

I'm sure my comments are tinted with my usual pessimism but the only time I recall the Texans beating the Ravens was that bizarre game when Case Keenum qb'd and Kubiak kept calling trick plays and wildcats to limit his exposure.

I looked it up and the Texans have beaten Baltimore twice (once in the Keenum game you mentioned and once with Schaub in a 43-13 blowout). They have lost to them 8 times (Savage, Schaub 3Xs, Yates, Rosenfels, Carr 2Xs). That is a pretty ugly history but it's notable DeShaun Watson took part in none of those games. Truly that record is most notable for the embarrassing run of QBs the Texans have started over the years. Schaub's competence looks like Montana next to that list.

Thanks for the research.

True, Watson did not QB any of those games.

Per CBS Sports:

Do you agree? We have a 16.4% chance of missing the playoffs?

What are the chances Watson doesn't play enough of the remaining regular season healthy? I think there is a correlation there.

The Browns dismantled the Steelers in the most Steeler-esque way possible with multiple helmet-to-helmet KO's punctuated by a game-ending brawl after Myles Garrett ripped off Mason Rudolph's helmet and then swung it at Rudolph's head! This was the same Rudolph that was KO'd by Earl Thomas earlier in the year.

Thursday Night Footbrawl. The real winner was the Raiders who took over the #6 seed, at least temporarily. Another winner was the Texans who now inch that playoff clinching percentage up a few more points.

Commissioner Goody Two Shoes is going to have his hands full with this one. It's not hard to imagine multiple suspensions coming down after this. I always wondered what would happen if a head coach said "F--- it, just put as many of their players in the hospital as you can. I'll pay your fines." That's what this looked like. Sorta like Rollerball on cleats. This was payback for every thug-ass cheapshot handed out by Mean Joe, Jack Lambert and James Harrison rolled into one night.

I guess when you lose 10 straight to a team you need to push the envelope a bit.

Week 12 update
 

I'm going to spot the Ravens a win over the Rams Monday night (if they lose, it changes nothing) so here are the Week 12 playoff standings (conference record in parentheses):

New England 10-1 (6-1)
Baltimore 9-2 (6-2)
Houston 7-4 (6-2)
Kansas City 7-4 (5-3)
Buffalo 8-3 (6-2)
Pittsburgh 6-5 (5-3)
----------------------------
Oakland 6-5 (4-3)
Indianapolis 6-5 (5-5)
Tennessee 6-5 (4-4)
Cleveland 5-6 (5-3)

Houston has the tiebreaker over KC (head-to-head but also conference record). Pittsburgh wins the four-way tie for the sixth seed (Indy owns tiebreak with the Titans but are eliminated with losses to both Pittsburgh and Oakland head-to-head, then Pittsburgh prevails on conference record)

ESPN now has that wonderful "what if", the NFL Playoff Machine

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

where you can tweak your favorite scenarios. In my first run-through, the Texans take the AFC South but fall behind KC into the 4th seed. Buffalo slides entirely out of the playoffs with defeats against Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and New England leaving the Steelers and Oakland as the Wild Cards. Houston hosts Pittsburgh in the first round and loses because the refs love the Steelers even with a third-string free agent at quarterback.

Fivethirtyeight.com now has the Texans with an 80% chance to make the playoffs and 64% chance to win the division. Just an 8% chance to get a 1st round bye. Pats and Ravens would seem to have those two 1st round byes locked up although, the Texans could mess things up with a win over the Pats on SNF.....

Colts have fallen to 34% chance to make the playoffs and and a 19% chance to win the division...

Texans now power-ranked 10th in their calculations.....

Week 13 update
 

Updated week 13 AFC playoff standings...

Baltimore 10-2 (6-2)
New England 10-2 (6-2)
Houston 8-4 (7-2)
Kansas City 8-4 (6-3)
Buffalo 9-3 (6-2)
Pittsburgh 7-5 (6-3)
----------------------------
Tennessee 7-5 (5-4)
Oakland 6-6 (4-4)
Indianapolis 6-6 (5-6)
Cleveland 5-7 (5-4)

Baltimore has head-to-head tiebreak with New England, Houston has head-to-head tiebreak with Kansas City, Pittsburgh has conference record tiebreaker with Tennessee. Pittsburgh would be the visitor for wild card week in Houston if the standings stayed this way until the end of the season.

Final four week schedule for each contending team:

Baltimore
---------------
@ BUF
vs NYJ
@ CLE
vs PIT

New England
---------------
vs KC
@ CIN
vs BUF
vs MIA

Houston
--------------
vs DEN
@ TEN
@ TAM
vs TEN

Kansas City
--------------
@ NE
vs DEN
@ CHI
vs LAC

Buffalo
--------------
vs BAL
@ PIT
@ NE
vs NYJ

Pittsburgh
--------------
@ ARI
vs BUF
@ NYJ
@ BAL

Tennessee
--------------
@ OAK
vs HOU
vs NO
@ HOU

Oakland
--------------
vs TEN
vs JAX
@ LAC
@ DEN

Indianapolis
---------------
@ TAM
@ NO
vs CAR
@ JAX

From CBS Sports:

BTW, the Patriots have had a home field playoff game every year since 2008 (the year Brady got knee-capped and they had to play Matt Cassel at QB). It would be really sweet to watch the Patriots have to try to reach the Super Bowl via three road games without their sloppy weather for a change.

I can see the Texans going 3-1 in those games. Beating Denver and Tampa, and splitting with Tennessee.

It would be nice to win out, but this is a Houston team and nothing ever goes the easy way.

If the Chiefs can beat the Pats next weekend in Foxboro (Pats favored by 3), that could really make things interesting. Still, although the Texans have the tie-breaker over both the Chiefs and Pats, the Texans winning out would seem to be very difficult...

It looks like maybe the Texans-Patriots game was a mirage. The Texans aren't really that good and the Patriots are worse than we thought.

Here's the Week 14 playoff standings:

Baltimore 11-2 (7-2)
New England 10-3 (6-3)
Kansas City 9-4 (7-3)
Houston 8-5 (7-3)
Buffalo 9-4 (6-3)
Pittsburgh 8-5 (6-3)
----------------------------
Tennessee 8-5 (6-4)
Cleveland 6-7 (6-4)
Indianapolis 6-7 (5-6)
Oakland 6-7 (4-5)

Those last three are two games back in the wild card and will need to run the table and hope for help. Houston has a one-game tiebreaker lead on Tennessee based on division record (3-1 compared to 2-2) but the two remaining head-to-head games will decide the division. If one or the other sweeps, they're in. If they split, Houston will go unless Houston loses to Tampa Bay and Tennessee beats New Orleans.

Week 15 Update
 

Houston's win over Tennessee puts them on the cusp of clinching the AFC South with two weeks to play. A win over Tampa or Tennessee the final two weeks or a Titan loss to New Orleans in Week 16 seals the deal.

In addition, the Texans are almost stuck as the #4 playoff seed unless Kansas City slips to either the Bears or Chargers while the Texans run the table. Therefore, it's all but assured that the Texans will host Buffalo in the Wild Card round (conference records, final opponents in parentheses):

Baltimore 12-2 (8-2, @ CLE, vs PIT)
New England 11-3 (7-3, vs BUF, vs MIA)
Kansas City 10-4 (8-3, @ CHI, vs LAC)
Houston 9-5 (8-3, @ TAM, vs TEN)
Buffalo 10-4 (7-3, @ NE, vs NYJ)
Pittsburgh 8-6 (6-4, @ NYJ, @ BAL)
----------------------------------------------
Tennessee 8-6 (6-5, vs NO, @ HOU)

As I write, Indy (6-7) still has a tiny chance of making the wild card but they would need to run the table and hope Pittsburgh tanks.

The other wrench in the situation is if Buffalo upsets New England this week and then captures the AFC East which then means the wild card game could be a rematch of New England at Houston. Personally, I'd rather face Buffalo because I think Josh Allen could be rattled in his first playoff game.

Yeah but...
beat Buffalo at home then the Texans likely have to go to Foxboro the following week. Looking past a home game in the wild card round is surely foolish with this team, but would you rather:

Bills at home then the Patriots on the road
or
Patriots at home and Bills on the road?

Kinda think that while getting the Bills first is the best chance to go to the divisional round that the best path to the conference championship might be the latter.

The Ravens are the looming monster. They look pretty much unstoppable to get to the AFCC game. So, not to dismiss Pitt (or even Tenn), but it looks like it will be a fight between Texans, Bills, Chiefs and Pats over who eventually gets to meet the monster.

The Bills @ Pats game follows the Texans @ Bucs game this Saturday. Should be a good one - gotta think the spunky Bills will give the Pats a hard time - possibly win......

It's a Brees! Indy is officially eliminated so only seven AFC teams are left for six playoffs spots with Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Houston the only ones who haven't clinched a spot. As noted earlier, Houston just needs to win one of their final two games to clinch the AFC South. Pittsburgh has the edge on the last wild card spot but they still must beat Baltimore or hope Tennessee loses to either New Orleans or Houston in the final two weeks.

Just to clarify, if Houston is the #4 seed as expected, then a first-round win almost surely means a second-round rematch in Baltimore, not New England. The Ravens own the tiebreaker with New England so even if they share the same regular-season record, Baltimore will still be the #1 seed.

Ha.

I'm rooting for the 6th seed, obvs. :p

I'd rather not travel to Buffalo for a playoff game if you don't mind. I don't know why, exactly, but it just feels like a bad idea.

According to ESPN, even if Buffalo beats New England and they end up tied for the AFC East, the Patriots still have the tiebreaker but they go all the way down to common opponents to break the tie (meaning head-to-head, division record and conference record are even).

OhNoYouDidn't.gif

You beat me to it

Week 16 Update
 

Congratulations to the Texans for winning the AFC South again and taking their familiar spot as the 4th seed. They are almost guaranteed to be hosting the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the playoffs.

Tennessee, meanwhile, lost and became the front-runner for the final wild card berth. How did that happen? Well, Pittsburgh did have an edge in conference record over the Titans but Pittsburgh's loss to a conference opponent while Tennessee lost to an NFC opponent means they are now tied. The tiebreaker goes all the way down to strength of schedule where playing the Bengals twice drags down the Steelers' SOS giving the final spot to the Titans.

Oakland, meanwhile needed four games to break their way just to still have an outside chance of making the playoffs and all four happened! Next week, they will need at least three games to break for them and if these happen too, the Raiders ought to head for Las Vegas. Oh, wait. They are.

Heading into the final week (opponent in parentheses):

Baltimore 13-2 (vs PIT)
New England 12-3 (vs MIA)
Kansas City 11-4 (vs LAC)
Houston 10-5 (vs TEN)
Buffalo 10-5 (vs NYJ)
Tennessee 8-7 (@ HOU)
---------------------------------
Pittsburgh 8-7 (@ BAL)
Oakland 7-8 (@ DEN)

Congrats, also, to the Bengals who won the Joe Burrow sweepstakes.