Texans-Falcons Trade In The Works?
 

Jadeveon Clowney is spending extended time with the Atlanta Falcons this week, raising the possibility that the Texans and Falcons might work out a trade for the overall number one draft pick.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/sto...-falcons-again

On the surface, all parties seem to be agreeable to this with the terms themselves apt to be the main sticking point and whether the Texans might get better offers.

Even though Fanspeak in their simulator often pitches the Falcons sending their first four picks to Houston, I don't think that will be all that likely. I could see Houston getting the first three (1-6, 2-5 and 3-4) or perhaps (1-6, 2-5 and 4-3) or perhaps next year's first thrown in (1-6, 2-5 and Atlanta's #1 in 2015.

I think the Texans would really prefer to take Khalil Mack or Blake Bortles. I don't think Mack will tumble that far but Bortles might and the Texans may be just as happy to have the extra picks and either OLB Anthony Barr or OTs Greg Robinson or Jake Matthews.

If the Texans have six players acceptable to them, I could see them making this trade. If there isn't, however, there may still be one more option: the Eli Manning option. After Manning was taken by San Diego, the Chargers dealt him to the Giants before the first round was over.

Let's say the Texans and Falcons put a deal in place but the Texans will only agree to it if the Falcons have the chance to choose Mack and/or Bortles. In that scenario, the Texans will choose Clowney at 1/1 and wait until the Falcons are on the clock. Then the Falcons will choose, say, Bortles and then both teams will announce they have traded Clowney for Bortles plus the remaining Atlanta picks pre-agreed before the draft began. That way, both teams are ensured of getting what they want and if the Falcons don't have a good choice at #6 then the deal is off and the Texans keep Clowney and the Falcons can make their pick at #6 for themselves.

The only downside to such an arrangement is that if someone else came forward with a better trade, the Texans would likely refuse out of consideration to Atlanta.

I think conditional deals are discussed with teams before the draft routinely but they are rarely revealed to the public because there is no point in upsetting either the fan base or the players with the thought that a certain player doesn't have the full support of their front office. This would be a special case, just like the Manning-Rivers trade, because part of the deal can already be expected to happen.

It's a possibility and I've heard radio already talking of this....

I like Mack but I'd rather have JFF than Bortles. Many are saying the Jags will probably nab JFF.....

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I think this is one of the most highly anticipated drafts in recent memory...

Anyone else notice the new draft dates in early May fall exactly between the SuperBowl and the first pre-season game? I think this is by design.....

Less than 2 weeks to go...

The more I look at this, the less I like it. I consider there to be 4 elite players, and none as elite as Clowney. Mack is my 2nd highest guy, then Watkins, then Robinson.

Moving to 6, IMO means reaching for a QB, and missing on a more solid pick.

The trade will have to blow me away in order for me to pull the trigger.

Depends on the compensation and also how big of a drop-off you have. In a deep draft where the 2nd and 3rd rounds have a lot of great talent, the chance to double the number of picks there is a definite consideration. Particularly since one of our top three picks is almost guaranteed to be a developmental QB who won't pay dividends for a couple of years.

And who/how many elites are there? Any Peyton Mannings? Any Lawrence Taylors? Any Adrian Petersons? Any Reggie Whites?

Honestly, I'm not even sure Clowney is in that company although I think he's the closest this draft has to offer.

So, if you are drawing your drop-off line at four, then don't trade lower than four. If you're drop-off line is six, don't trade lower than six. If your drop-off line is ten, don't trade lower than ten.

Personally, I'm at six (Clowney, Mack, G. Robinson, Matthews, Barr or Bortles). Watkins will probably be taken by somebody and, with any luck, Manziel and Bridgewater are taken to improve our menu of options.

(I've recently played the simulator with trading down to 8 but it keeps spitting out Mack when I do this and I think there's no way in hell Mack falls to 8 unless photos surface of him with Donald Sterling.)

But I don't want to fall to six unless the compensation gives me what I want which is either Atlanta's 2nd and 3rd or their 2nd this year and their first next year. I might okay the 2nd and 4th this year and a second next year. I just want to gobble up guys on the second day where the real value is.

Depends on ones draft board, one might want atleast one more draftee evaluated acceptable than position one trade for.

So I might have Barr in position 15 and consider any trade as low as position 14 depending on how many day 2 picks offered.

1. DE | South Carolina Jadeveon Clowney
2. OT | Auburn Greg Robinson
3. WR | Clemson Sammy Watkins
4. OLB | Buffalo Khalil Mack
5. QB | Texas A&M Johnny Manziel
6. QB | UCF Blake Bortles
7. OT | Texas A&M Jake Matthews
8. QB | Louisville Teddy Bridgewater
9. WR | Texas A&M Mike Evans
10. DT | Pittsburgh Aaron Donald
11. CB | Virginia Tech Kyle Fuller
12. FS | Alabama Hasean Clinton-Dix
13. OT | Michigan Taylor Lewan
14. CB | Oklahoma State Justin Gilbert
15. OLB | UCLA Anthony Barr

I've been hearing that the Texans are willing to wait until the fourth round to look at a quarterback. If so, I'm pleased because I'm not at all sure that the possible ceiling of guys who will likely be around in the fourth is that dramatically different from the possible ceiling of the three or four guys everyone's talking about as being the first quarterbacks off the board.

There's no urgency since we already have Fitzpatrick, Keenum and Yates who have all made starts in the NFL. If there's not a quality candidate, they should wait until next year's draft or seek another opportunity.

There's been some talk of drafting two QB's - one early, one late. If that happens, probably a lock that Keenum and Yates are both out the door, i.e. OB getting "his" guys in here....

Think I heard somewhere that Falcons say they don't plan to trade up.

I'm guessing it's Clowney or a trade down. I hope they can find a trade partner because I don't want a replay of the last 7 years where we take the physically gifted DE with questionable motor to build a defense around with the hope that if the defense is a good enough we can get get by with an average QB acquired with a 2nd round pick. Where have I heard that story before?

Isn't that what Seattle just did?

This year best player may not be a QB so what do you do? Probably not good to reach for a QB?

This site has interesting Superbowl QB history.
http://www.drafthistory.com/index.ph..._quarterbacks/

Sure. And somebody won the lottery this week too. Doesn't make it a high percentage plan. For one, Seattle's success makes emulating them much tougher. Manziel is the closest to Wilson in this draft, but in part because of Wilson's success, he's probably going to go in the top 5, not the 3rd round. So, can't copy them in that way. Also, I'm constantly perplexed by people who are terrified of the Texans picking a QB in the first round because they may get it wrong yet invoke Seattle. In order to follow Seattle's lead, you don't just have to get the first pick right, you need to get most picks right and find a diamond in the rough QB to boot. If you don't think the Texans can identify the best QB when they have the pick of the litter, why do you think they can do it in the 3rd round? And why do you think they are going to start landing All Pros in the 4th and 5th rounds? It wil require them doing all of this to be like Seattle.

As for what i think the Texans should do, pick the QB you think has the best chance of developing into an elite QB, unless you absolutely don't think any of these guys have that potential. To me, this was part of the job O'Brien was hired for and is his first real test. With the rule changes and the way the game is evolving, the position is too important. I don't care if there are a couple other guys who are higher rated. If the QB pans out, he's worth more than them.

So we should have taken David Carr over Julius Peppers in 2002 and Vince Young (or Matt Leinart) over Mario Williams in 2006? Great thinking.

The Texans have been here before, not once but twice. The one thing they didn't do the previous times was to trade down for more choices. That's what I'd like to see them do since even the elites seem to come with red flags.

Otherwise, how about using 1/1 for the guys with the fewest red flags - Jake Matthews or Khalil Mack?

A question might be from interviews with new coach, what type of QB might he prefer?

Seems one answer is QB must be a smart QB who can take pressure.

Perhaps Mittenberger and Bridgewater would be top two O'Brien likes.

Just a guess on my part for this discussion.

Then who of say top QB might still be available at top of second round?

Maybe these two? So no QB panic to get a good one.

Might be in third you see Garrapulo or Savage still available while speculating, also could develop .

And if draft were last week as it should we would already know.

That must be why everyone is pining for the Mario era. Despite being the better pick but at the end of the day, we had nothing to show for it. Even if you get it right, it doesn't matter if you don't have a QB. We didn't win many games as a result of taking him. In fact, you could make a pretty strong case that VY, despite being the clearly inferior player, nevertheless contributed to winning more than Mario did. That's why I think you have to try and get the QB right. It's worth the risk. You want to take a safe RT? Because last year's playoff teams were a who's who of the league's premiere RTs?

You seem to think that if you build a good enough team at all other positions, you can get by with an average QB. That worked fine in 1985. Not now.

Lots of talk right now about this tweet.

@ESPNNFL: RT @LRiddickESPN: Hearing rumblings of a potential draft day trade that could blow the top off of the draft involving the QB position.

Some think it means Cowboys trading with Texans.

But who knows.

The Cowboys would have to give up a ton to move up from 16 to the top spot.

In 2012, it cost the Redskins their 2012 1st (#6) and 2nd (#39), 2013 1st, and 2014 1st to go from #6 to #2 to get RGIII.

In 2011, it cost the Falcons their 2011 1st (#26), 2nd (#59), and 4th (#124) and 2012 1st and 4th to go from #26 to #6 for Julio Jones.

I'm not sure that the Cowboys would have enough to offer to get me to move down that far if I were the Texans -- the top guys would be long gone by then. I'd also want more picks in this draft than future picks, because of the depth this year and because while this roster obviously has some significant holes, it's not a long-term teardown/rebuild job.

Jerry does love to be seen as a wheeler and dealer (even when it involves trading up unnecessarily) so it wouldn't surprise me at all if he where trying to make this happen.

Cowpies have more holes than we do. Their #1 is too far down so that would mean a top player from their current roster would have to be added in, IMO. Other than Tyron Smith, they don't have anyone else I'd want and Smith is too expensive. Maybe Dez, but we really don't need him much, and again, he's going to be expensive. No way it's the Cowpies. Probably just draft rumors and smokescreens. God I wish the draft would just get here!!!

Personally, I think Riddick's tweet is more about the Rams, Bradford, and Johnny Football. I'd give the Rams a #3 or a #4 for Bradford if he'd renogotiate.

Video - 2:35 mins.

Texans might pass on Clowney at 1.1

Rick Smith says his draft board is already set. Bob McNair says the Texans still aren't sure. Who do you believe? One thing for certain is that McNair is sticking his nose in public comments regarding the draft as he has never done before. You don't suppose the boss has got Smith on a short leash now that Kubiak has been dismissed and is becoming more involved than in the past with personnel decisions?

I do think Mack probably fits the Texans 3-4 better than Clowney although, if Mario Williams can become a 3-4 OLB, certainly Clowney could. I would not be surprised if the Texans have two trade offers on the table and are waiting to see if either one sweetens the pot at the last minute for fear of missing out. One of those is almost certainly the Falcons and the other, I suspect, could be the always-baffling Raiders at #5. I have a hard time believing Houston would trade all the way down to Minnesota (#8) or the Bills (#9).

Other than Jake Matthews, Mack might be the least likely to bust as the #1 pick so there is some sense there. I still can't believe Manziel is being discussed other than for PR value of all the Aggie fans who are interested.

Charley Casserley has said the Texans did not get a single offer for their 1.1 in either the 2002 or 2006 Draft, so based upon that disclosure and even though it's now a less punitive CBA for rookies picked at the top of the Board than in past years, I'm still expecting the Texans to again use their 1.1 this year themselves. In the unlikely circumstances that they do agree to a trade, it will only be because they accept far less in exchange for their 1.1 than most everybody thinks it's worth.

But we have known Casserly to be self-serving before. Not sure there was really no offers or if it is his way of excusing himself for selecting Carr.

My gut says that there will be no trade before the draft and they'll take Clowney. The Texans will require more than anyone is willing to give to trade out of the No. 1 pick without knowing who is still on the board. However, their asking price may go down once the draft starts and they who's there. So, if say Mack or Manziel is there at No. 6, they might be willing to take less in return from Atlanta to pull the trigger. We'll know soon.

Totally agree with this. If a great offer is not there before the draft starts, they'll take Clowney and try to move him as the draft progresses. It's more difficult for the receiving team to do this sort of deal because of the draft pick and salary slotting, but the Manning/River trade shows it can be done and it should be slightly easier now that it's not such a massive financial investment a the top of the draft.

That's what the man said in an interview within the last couple weeks with a local radio station (610), and he didn't stutter. That's all I know, that's all I got on the subject.

I agree with this post

Metzenberger will be there in the second round after flunking the drug test at the combine. And the third round. And maybe the fourth round.

I'd like to see them get a trade-down from 1.1 but it might not happen. Might just be too much for a team to give up to trade-up. OTOH, Rick Smith mentioned on the radio the other day that pick 2.1 might have lots more interest..... Teams have all night/all day to think about it - players they'd like to have that didn't go in round 1. It's a valuable pick to own strategy-wise and I kinda hope they don't use it until Day 2, i.e. get more picks and/or a next year 1st rounder.....

2.5 days to go...

Especially if they come out of the first round with a QB and many of the other teams who are rumored to be eyeing QBs (Rams, Jags, Browns, Vikings, etc.) had gone another way, setting up a potential run at the top of the second round.

I'd still be hesitant to give it up for a future pick, given the supposed depth of this class.

Mettenberger’s test didn’t show any drugs, but it was so diluted that it was treated as a positive test. It will be up to each team to decide whether they buy his story that he’d been chugging water to deal with cramping from his surgery and not trying to water down his pee to avoid a positive test.

Possibly the bigger character issue with Mettenberger is that as a freshman at Georgia he plead guilty to misdemeanor sexual battery for grabbing a woman in a bar. He seems to have stayed out of trouble since then (despite his apparent Ozarka habit), but I can’t imagine McNair and some other owners would be too excited about making a convicted sex criminal the potential face of the franchise.

Especially after the disastrous results they had with last years 3rd pick out of LSU.

I didnt see sex criminal in any writeups. I found 18 year old drunk and disorderly conduct during spring break. 2k fine with 40 hours community service does not equate to what Ben Rothelsberger did same week.

I'd have to check carefully but on surface innuendo and rumors don't seem to fit actual person.

Certainly last year draftee from LSU should not affect analysis this year. No guilt by association.

I am most anxious to see whether Kubiak was in charge of that mess or if we're in for more of the same this year. I'm not a big fan of Smith's but my guess is that he took a back seat on draft day.

We may discover that that was a good thing.

If the Texans don't draft a QB with their 1rst RD pick, and depending on which QBs fall, there could be a mad rush by some teams to trade back into the 1rst RD over top of the Texans 2.1 pick. I could see a lot of those teams at the backend (Seattle, for sure) willing to trade back if it's not too far of a drop. In fact, I'll predict now that someone makes a deal with SEA despite the QBs on the board.

Not that this means anything, but I saw one mock that had Bortles dropping and the Texans traded up with the Pats at 1.29 to get him. I could even see a team jumping CLE at 1.26 and trading with SD for 1.25 depending on who's there.

The way it is now if a guy touchs a chic's azz they write him up as a sex offender. I'm not saying that's OK, I'm not saying it's a case of boyz being boyz, but they are almost certainly not a pediphile which is what it can sound like. Atleast let's hope not.

The signing of FA Reed was a big mistake, but the Montgomery pick was a total head-scratcher. That was so uncharacteristic of the Texans, I've always thought that move was based on a "hunch" by Wade. Have no way of knowing though ?

Tweets this morning. No way ATL gives up THAT much. I'd take #6, #37 and a 2015 #1.

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva · 7m
More Werder: "Word on the street" is #Texans asking #Falcons for RG3-like haul to get from 6 to 1. (That was 3 1st-rounders & 2nd-rounder.)

Evan Silva ‏@evansilva · 7m
ESPN's Ed Werder on SportsCenter: "The dialogue between #Texans, #Falcons has been legitimate & continues as we speak."

If those reports are legit, I can't understand why the Texans think they can get so much for a non-QB, unless they value Clowney a lot more than I think they do
and would prefer to keep him unless they can get a "king's ransom" for him ?

Silva or Werder's source has to be on the Falcons (or possibly Clowney's agent but unlikely). The idea is to overinflate the Texans' demand to make them seem like the unreasonable ones if the deal falls through. Or, perhaps, if the Falcons agree to a deal, they can make their fan base think they got a better deal than the one the Texans wanted so it seems like a bargain instead of a screwing.

I think Texans want four things in return: 1st and 2nd this year are requirements, 3rd and/or 4th this year plus 1st or 2nd in 2015. On the Falcons' side, would 1, 2, 4 and a 2nd next year be all that onerous?

If I am the Texans, I'd accept 1, 2, 3, 4 or 1, 2, 3/4 plus a 1/2 next year. How much did they give up to get Julio Jones? Why should Clowney be any less?

Did you see the NFL Nation blog mock on ESPN.com? Texans traded down to Buffalo at #9 in return for Buffalo's 1 and 2 plus a 1 and 3 in 2015 and a 2 in 2016 then somehow magically Bortles in there at #9. Don't think the Texans would do something so foolish or risky if Bortles is their target.