O'Brien Coy About Draft Options
 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/n...johnny-clowney

Not that O'Brien is the decision maker here. I think either Smith or McNair makes this choice with O'Brien (and Crennel on defense) giving input when asked.

My head tells me Clowney or trade down but my gut says we are picking Bortles.

Trading down to 6 would be good so the Falcons can have Clowney. It's a calculated risk that Bortles would still be there or not, but with extra picks the team could always get a QB to groom in the 2nd round and fill other holes. I'm not sure if the Texans are 'In Love' with Bortles but it may be like when drunk men are at a bar near closing time and start getting desperate to fill a need, and start discounting all the ugly flaws that could be overlooked.

That's kind of what I fear - seeing these QBs with "beer goggles".

Scouts Inc (via ESPN.com) lists Bridgewater as the 8th best NFL prospect. Bortles is the 10th best and Manzeil is the 21st.

If the Texans take a non-QB at 1-1 then get to the 24th pick of the first round with Manzeil and/or Garropolo still available, the Texans could package 2-1, 5-1 and/or 6-1 to trade up with Cincinnati (24th pick) or San Diego (25th pick) ahead of Cleveland (26th pick) to get their QBOTF. Maybe we offer them Keenum or Yates as a bonus. Yates beat Cincy in a playoff game two years ago and he may have more value to the Bengals than anyone in the league.

The genius would be that the Texans don't miss a round because we have the comp pick near the bottom of the 4th round and the Raiders pick near the top of the 6th round to approximate the draft hole we are dealing away.

Yes, we could sit and wait until 2-1 for that QB but we risk the Jaguars or the Browns trading up to jump ahead of us. Once the comp picks are added to the simulator, I'll have to run the scenario and see what that does to our draft.

We could go:

1-1 Clowney
1-24 Manzeil or Garoppolo
3-1 right tackle
4-1 ILB
4-comp RB
6-5 depth
6-comp depth
7-1 depth
7-comp depth

I'm pretty sure the Jags and the Browns will take a QB with their first overall picks. And fortunately for us both of those teams are run by morons so we should be left with an appealing selection. Of course it remains to be seen whether the Texans are also run by a moron.

I see Jacksonville going either Bortles or Manziel and the Browns taking Derek Carr #26. I could see the Texans trading up for Garoppolo back into the First round, I know I'd be tempted if Carr was selected. Still thinking I want to fill more holes...We signed Lewis, but I want Deone Bucannon. At RT I want Joel Bitonio. Wanting a DE like Kareem Martin or Trent Murphy and an OLB like Marcus Smith (unless we traded down and select Barr). Thinking RB can be gotten late with Jerrrick McKinnon.

Assuming Clowney is so good that we need to take him at 1-1.

Otherwise speculating about trades or rnd 2 on is fun

Supposed to be a deep draft so why trade up.

It would take a lot to get me out of 1-1.

I could see us taking DT in sccond or third rnd.

It might be QB's don't go till much latter in draft than you guys think.

Not sure if we pick one or two QB but I think whoever, wherever the QB is picked he will be atleast 6'5".

If we draft a QB, he'll be at least 5-11. I can guarantee that. :p

Fitzpatrick is only 6-2.

If we take Clowney, we have to be ready to accept we won't be in a position to draft a QB at 1-1 for some time in the future but then you have to ask if Bortles is worth a 1-1 and if he isn't, what alternate plan would be suggested for getting a QB who can be a SB-caliber quarterback.

I tried my trade-ups in the simulator and they were not getting accepted, although I could not add Yates or Keenum to the deal like I'd like to.

The alternate plan would be to develop a solid supporting cast led by the defense, that way a team can get a "SB-caliber quarterback" in the second or third round just as San Fran and Seattle did.

that sounds more like hope than a plan. And SF and Seattle benefitted from drafting their guys when the league's view of the QB was changing. JF is the closest thing to Wilson in this draft and he definitely won't hang around until the 3rd round even though a lot of people don't think he is the prospect Wilson was. And next year, the closest thing to Kaepernick is Mariota, want to bet me where he is drafted? I say he'll be closer to the 1st pick than the 2nd round. Want that action?

If you are the Houston Texans, "hope"(AKA as day-dreaming) would be deceiving yourself into thinking there's somebody in this years Draft like Andrew Luck or John Elway.

Well, I don't recall ever saying that there was but I'll respond nonetheless. I seem to recall that one of the last drafts that supposedly didn't have an "Aaron Rodgers"-type player in it was the draft when the Packers actually took Aaron Rodgers. So you never know.

But to return to the QBs in this draft, are you suggesting that there is not a single QB in this draft that has the potential to develop into a franchise QB and that this crop is so weak that the average QB available in some future 3rd round grades out higher?

And finally, I see a contradiction in your plan where the Texans front office somehow become draft savants and start landing Pro Bowlers at every round and a franchise QB in a later round (a/k/a the Seattle/SF plan). Yet, this same front office you don't have confidence in identifying the best QB in this draft.

My impression of this class of QBs is that the top 6 to 7 are worthy of Draft grades ranging from the second half of the first round thru the end of the second round. So without an obviously strong QB candidate (or "franchsie QB" if you like), it's really a crap shoot to a certain extent.
So if O'Brien is in love with one of those QBs, he should definitely draft him with the 1.1. But if fails to see that much difference between the QB prospects but thinks he can still draft one with promising potential in the second round, he should give serious consideration to drafting one of the very strong non-QB prospects like Clowney, Greg Robinson, or Watkins with his 1.1.

I saw them talking about the pro days of the 3 QBs on ESPN today and they said something interesting. Everyone agreed that the pro days reinforced the game tape and showed that Manziel CLEARLY has the best arm of the 3 (along with having the quickest release). Then they knocked Manziel and called him risky and small and injury prone for 20 minutes.

My question is this...What exactly makes Bortles a high upside guy if he has so much less arm strength than Manziel? What exactly makes him a safe pick compared to Manziel? Does it really just come down to the guy looking the part? His college performance, competition level, and ability to throw the ball is clearly 3rd best in the QB class but he has somehow become an option as the 1st overall pick?

I think Bortles is the only outcome that would bother me at 1.1. Give me a trade down, clowney, the pro ready Bridgewater, or the endless possibility of Manziel. Just don't give me Bortles. I doubt the AAC conference defenses he faced had more than 11 pro defenders when you add them all up.

I concur with this line of reasoning. I sort of like Bortles...I like Garoppolo because I can stratify my risk with a later pick. I like McCaron and he could be as good or better than Bortles, just not as physically imposing. I like Carr's arm. If I'm confident the position can be coached, give me Logan Thomas.

I generally agree that Bortles "looks the part". He has the size that the other two don't which should allow him to see over the 6-5 or 6-6 linemen downfield. That's the big problem for Manzeil is he may not be able to see past the modern NFL lines.

The counter-argument is that Manzeil excelled against SEC defenses which is about as close as you can get to the NFL without playing in the NFL. Bridgewater, like Bortles, played in the AAC but Bridgewater is older, had better stats and was trained on the pro-style offense while the other two played in spread offenses.

To be honest, if I am picking among the three, I want Bridgewater because he is the least likely to be a bust, has 6-2 height (not great, but good enough), decent wheels so he has the elusiveness to extend plays and most say he has a higher intelligence than Bortles or Manzeil. However, the Texan coaches are glowing over Bortles' ability to pick up new things.

But I think I'd rather have Clowney over any of them and then get Garappolo in Round 2 (or Manzeil if he falls that far) because of what Clowney could do with Watt on defense.

If I get a really sweet offer to trade down, though, I could fill other holes and still take one of the three QBs or an OT.

Imagine if Manziel and Bortles heights were reversed. If Manziel was 6' 4", he'd be the consensus No. 1. If Bortles was 5'11", he's basically Case Keenum and would probably go late in the draft if at all.

Yes, but this is why I've really grown to hate this period between the bowl games and the draft. For most BCS-division level players, there is little that should change during this time that cannot be learned by simply watching film from... ya know... the games themselves.

This scouting hype machine just provides unlimited distractions and over-analysis. We didn't need a combine to know how tall Bortles is or a pro day to hear Manziel yell BOOM everytime he hit a wide open teammate in shorts.

I happen to still be a Teddy guy, but even if I were a Manziel guy, a Bortles guy, a whoever guy, it would be based on what I saw on the field, with pads, in the face of a defense, at game speed. Anything else is a distortion, an extrapolation, and of course... a projection.

As for SEC defenses... did it help JaMarcus Russell? Did anyone care that Andrew Luck played PAC defenses? Everyone is wide open in college. EVERYONE.

Find me a SMART quarterback who actually improves under pressure using his ARM, not just his legs. Legs get old before the arm does. Arm strength is overrated. Not as many 40+ yard passes in the NFL are attempted as some of you or the deceased Al Davis would like to think. The NFL is won in the short passing game in the face of a blitz. I want the Texans to find THAT quarterback.

That idiot yelled BOOM after completions during his pro day today? Really?

If arm strength and legs don't matter and we want smart, then we should have just kept Schaub. Or just go with Fitzpatrick. He's plenty smart. There may be wastes of talent, but that doesn't mean raw talent, or a lack of it, can be ignored.

I'm with you on leaning heavily on the games themselves. And no one played better in the actual games than Manziel. He was a one-man wrecking crew against some of the best defenses in football. And the notion that he did it primarily with his legs is completely misplaced. During the actual games, he threw for more yards, averaged more yards per attempt, threw for more touchdowns, took less sacks, and had a higher passer rating than Bridgewater (although he did throw more picks and his completion percentage was 1% lower - 71% to 70%). And no one played better when the pressure was on than Manziel. The guy relishes playing in big games and routinely did it with his arm. Just because ESPN generally runs his running highlights doesn't mean the throws weren't there.

ESPN's Bill Polian on Johnny Manziel: "Arm strength is absolutely not an issue." Says Manziel has stronger arm than Bortles & Bridgewater.
http://inagist.com/all/449178733279064064/
For me this is interesting and semi significant because I've read that Bortles had the strongest arm among the "Big Three", but Polian is no bozo and the words
"stronger arm than Bortles & Bridgewater" are surprising.
Anyway, both Zack Mettenberger and Tom Savage of Pitt have bigger arms, and they are the kind of big, strapping guys OB reportedly favors physically speaking who can be had in the 2nd or later rounds.

If Manzeil was a "one man wrecking crew", how come his LT will be Top 10 in this year's draft and his top WR a likely a first-round choice? Not to mention his LT last year was a first-rounder and his top WR was chosen despite a history of concussions? I think your characterization of A&M's offensive talent is vastly underrated.

One could say Manzeil had a better supporting cast than Bridgewater or Bortles had. Can you name any offensive players Louisville had besides Bridgewater? Can you name any offensive players UCF had beside Bortles and Storm Johnson? Yes, they played against weaker competition but they also played *alongside* weaker teammates than Manzeil had and still managed to shine.

He was a one-man wrecking crew much like Cam Newton was. Yes, he has some good talent around him (as did Newton), but his ability to singlehandedly impact games was second to none.

Are we really going to argue over whether Manziel was a dominant college football player?

Just so long as we have an understanding that being dominant in college (Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Tim Tebow) doesn't mean squat regarding their potential NFL success.

You sure about that? How a guy plays in college "doesn't mean squat" regarding their NFL potential? So what are you gauging his potential on if not how he played in college? Now, clearly, no one has suggested that being a good college player guarantees that he will be a good pro, but you'd rather have a guy that played well in college versus one that did not.

Manziel is certainly a leader and a polarizing figure, love him or hate him, something like Tebow but for different reasons, almost too much hype and publicity.

Ron Jaworkski on NFL network this morning said he was moving Manziel up from 4th round to 3rd round now, after his pro day workout.

Reason that Jaworkski had him that low - most of his throws are on the run and out of the pocket. If throws from the pocket he would give higher marks.

Another NFL analyst said Manziel reminded him most of Doug Flutie who did well. Then the other analyst said Flutie was drafted in 11 th round and over 13 year career only had 66 starts if want to call that successful.

There are plenty people who have Manziel rated higher or at the top as well.

Apparently Norv Turner at Minnesota said he likes Manziel. Minnesota has 8th pick.

And five more weeks of over analysis till draft starts.

Did I say they didn't matter? No, I said arm strength was OVERRATED. Different meaning. And I say it is overrated versus other QB attributes, namely poise and decision-making under pressure.

I don't discredit anyone favoring Manziel over another QB in this draft for the right reasons. He has an interesting mix of skills and moxie, some of which just cannot be quantified. I really don't have much of a problem with his 'supposed' off-field concerns either. Brett Favre was no choir boy. Really, a combo of Favre and Steve Young is quite the comparison. That he says BOOM after hitting a wide open receiver on a pro day wearing camo shorts is kinda dumb, but I admire the competitiveness.

I don't think I implied Manziel was successful primarily because of his legs, but there is no doubt they were a significant contributing factor to his collegiate success. Almost the opposite is said of Bridgewater... lots of rumpled faces looking at his rushing stats, though he has ample pocket poise. He is the checkdown Charlie. It does not wow you come draft day.

The numbers seem to validate that Manziel is arguably the best downfield passer in this field based on college stats, but when I consider what I suspect BOB's offense to be, I expect more of a short passing game than a deep one. And there are sites and articles like this one below that consistently demonstrate college stats where Bridgewater is the preferred player under a blitz.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...back-conundrum

So, again, my preference is the guy with the short area poise and smarts that excels in the short-to-medium passing game under a blitz as well as under no pressure.

Let's recall too what Bill O'Brien wants in a quarterback.


1. They have to be able to throw the ball accurately. They don't have to be the greatest athletes in the world.
2. They have to be able to make good decisions. You can judge that off the field.
3. They have to be intelligent, with a great football IQ.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buff...rade-up-texans
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Probably means nothing, but there likely will be many such stories like this as we move closer to the Draft. Buffalo is @ #9 overall , but arguably that's a "potentially" better trading partner that is more appealing than another team drafting higher since we do need quantity of Draft picks more than anything IMO.

If Clowney is a once every 10 year skill player there could be several teams wanting to trade up to get him. Just to play along.

If the Bills can move up to #4 or #5 and still put together a package to get to Number 1, sure the Texans will listen. But the Texans aren't falling to ninth.

Schaub was a very effective NFL quarterback when he had a decent arm. When his arm strength became below average he cratered. Arm strength alone is obviously not enough. But I never hear anyone claim it is. I don't hear anybody out there declaring Flacco and Cutler the best NFL QBs. I don't think arm strength is overrated. I think it is properly rated (and necessary). How many great (or even really good QBs) have below average arm strength? Prof. Manning is the only one I can think of.

Arm strength may not assure QB success, but lack of arm strength all but guarantees failure (see Schaub, Matt for the latest example).

I am not at all saying that Bridgewater will fail due to arm strength, but if the 'running' QB with a low first round grade has a better arm and faster release than the 2 'throwing' QBs, than why exactly are any of them in play at 1.1? Is any of them clearly superior as a prospect to Geno Smith or is the need at QB just big for a bunch of round 1 teams this year?

I am wildly rooting for a trade down (though I don't think we get that much). I am into Clowney if we stick put.

When it comes to the QBs I don't see how Bortles is in the picture. And between Manziel and Bridgewater, I am most afraid to draft Manziel, and I am most afraid not to draft Manziel.

First, if I can't trade down with the Jags, Browns, or Falcons...I would have no problem trading with the Bills. I have to believe they would want Greg Robinson. They got the QB I wanted last year in EJ Manuel. They would have to trade up over The Rams to get Robinson, who looks like Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden. At #9 maybe the worst case scenario is TE Eric Enron. If we garnered plenty of picks, we still grab Garoppolo or McCaron, and I'd be fine with that.

Tend to agree with Bob on the proposed trade. I'd be really surprised if the Texans traded all the way back to 9.

It becomes overrated when choosing a QB with the better arm strength over one with more of the things O'Brien mentions in that video, namely: accuracy, decision-making, and intelligence.

A certain amount of arm strength is like a prerequisite, as in, "you must be this tall to ride the ride" of playing QB in the NFL... or in other words, your QB's arm must be strong enough to make the necessary throws accurately. I agree that 2013 Schaub could not, hence several of the uncharacteristic picks he threw last season. But you keep mentioning 2013 Schaub as though someone with as weak an arm as his was in this draft. I do not think Teddy's arm is comparable to 2013 Schaub's, do you? If so, then I can see passing over Teddy.

So if all draftable QBs in this class have enough arm strength to complete passes accurately in O'Brien's new offense, which I would think that all the guys we are discussing do, then these prospects move on in the evaluation, i.e. any additional arm strength in excess of this prerequisite is not of as much value to me as are other factors, namely accuracy, decision-making, and intelligence.

I don't dismiss Manziel as lacking these last three talents; rather I prefer them in what I have seen from Bridgewater versus whatever more arm strength Manziel can provide.

I imagine the answer to whom O'Brien prefers has less to do with what we see on pro days and far more with what he hears from them when talking about how to attack a defense. The prospect who aces that pre-draft test is the one we'll see hoisting a Texans jersey in May.

Just look at his pick for wet nursing the job... Fitzpatrick. Does his arm impress anyone? No? Or maybe he is on the roster and not T.J. Yates or someone with an obviously stronger arm because Fitzpatrick is intelligent, like Harvard-intelligent.

Of course, it seems BOB is favoring his Irishmen here as well (McGloin at PSU, now Fitzpatrick). If I'm Manziel, maybe I'm changing my last name before draft day to McCarron... :p

One of the concerns I have about the QB position is the RT & RG positions. It's hard to display arm strength or accuracy while on your ass. Also, when the RB only has success on the left side of the Center, that's not helpful in staying balanced. I recall the Bears having similar issues two years ago. Then, the selected Kyle Long and another Rookie and made Cutler and McCown look pretty impressive. I admit Quessenberry was one of "My Guys" last year, but I'm not sure how Ferentz and O'Brien assess the situation. Trading back to #9 could perhaps Taylor Lewan and then Xavier Su'a-Filo be put on the roster in the same day? Just another consideration.

I doubt if there's anything to the rumors about a Texans-Bills trade, probably just the media fabricating stories to keep readers interested until the actual Draft which is still over a month off. But it there was something to the rumors, I suspect the Texans would pursue a deal. I could see trading our 1.1 for the
Bills 1.9 & 2.9 & 3.9 picks, or for their 1.9 & 2.9 & their second round pick in 2015. At 1.9 we would probably have Taylor Lewan or Zack Martin to choose from to plug up that hole at RT, or a CB like Justin Gilbert or maybe an edge rusher like Anthony Barr.
Hardly anything more that a pure guess here, but I don't think O'Brien is any more impressed with the Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater threesome than he is in the next 3 or 4 QB prospects. What we really need is Draft picks, lots of them, and if trading our 1.1 gets more picks I suspect the Texans will do it.

I agree last year looked like defense was on top of our QB way to fast, way to often.

Seemed to me breakdowns came all along the line , not just right side.

How will that be fixed? Incrementally. We will have a new offensive system this year.

If Foster and running game returns will help.

If TE can contribute more will help.

Maybe better play calls or QB checkdowns could help.

Just avoid turnovers would help a lot.

The Texans already have 11 picks in this draft (although only three in the first three rounds). I think they could parlay their two sixes and their 4th and move up high in the third if they wanted to.

And if they wanted to fix their RT hole and were not impressed with Clowney or the three QBs, they probably should target Matthews and fall no further than fifth or sixth.

I would be content if the first pick was Justin Gilbert, Taylor Lewan, Anthony Barr, Eric Ebron, or Kahlil Mack; especially if we picked up an extra 2nd & third round pick. I am not excited about packaging picks to move up for an additional third rounder. Off the top of my head the holes I want filled include:
1. QB 2. RT 3. ILB 4. TE 5. DE 6. RG 7. RB 8. NT 9. WR 10. CB

I took of FS because of the FA signings. So, I want to keep all my picks. Unless of course, Garoppolo is still on the board at the bottom of the Second round and we still haven't drafted a QB.

Mack is really the only one in that bunch I would be excited to draft and only then if we traded down considerably.

Yes, except I would list the priority as 1. QB, 2. RT 3. ILB 4. DE-OLB (pass-rusher) 5. RB 6. NT 7. TE 8. CB 9. RG 10. WR. But, of course, you make exceptions based on the draft board and who's available.

If we stay at 1-1, I want Clowney or Bridgewater.

If we trade down, I want Matthews, Mack or Bortles. If we trade down, I would insist on a high second-rounder and a third or possibly a 2015 1st-round so i can grab two players in the second, two in the third and two in the fourth. Then you've filled most of your needs.

I'd like to also get a real kick-returner with a late pick. I've never been thrilled with Martin or Manning back there.