Let's Talk QBs in the 2014 Draft
 

Took this from the Keenum thread as I thought it was a good starting point for a new thread:

I am just starting to look at 2014 QBs, beginning with Bridgewater. The slim build doesn't concern me. He plays at Louisville, which has had a decent record even though it's lower division, regardless of whatever lack of success he might have had against UH.

Seems he is 'clutch' from what I hear, though so were many collegiate QBs who can't hack the NFL game. As I mentioned in the other thread, I think the team needs a guy who is going to be a star at reading defenses and performing well under a blitz. Is that Teddy? I really have NO idea. Not yet. More research needed.

He does have more than adequate arm strength, and he is capable of throwing more than just a fastball, too. Early on in my reviews though, I get a little of a Leftwich vibe (not a good thing), and listening to him in an interview, I don't hear someone who seems unusually smart. Small sample size hopefully.

I definitely think there's a possibility that there could be a guy with fewer eyeball measurables than Bridgewater who could be a good pick later in the draft. But who? Any faves? Fales? McCarron? Boyd? Anyone else?

I did some reading up on Bridgewater last night and he appears to be an accurate thrower with good zip who has some running ability but is not a "running quarterback". He's a bit small (6'3") and slender (210) for an ideal NFL quarterback and not entirely consistent either. He'll take more time to develop than a typical 1-1 quarterback and, in a normal draft year, might be an 8-15 guy instead of Top 5.

But the tools are there. The intelligence and maturity are said to be there. Louisville's offense will adapt him for the pros far easier than Oregon's (Mariota) or A&M's (Manziel), so he's the safest of the three choices.

Scratch Marcus Mariota. He says he is returning to Oregon for his redshirt junior season. Not a big surprise. Ought to make guys like Johnny Manziel and Derek Carr happy though.

Mettenbergers stock takes a hit due to ACL tear in his bad knee. Tough break for the kid. Could be had in 2nd/3rd now.

I really hate to say this but that QB Carr out of Fresno St. is looking better and better. :eek:

I am kind of leaning towards taking a qb in the second round. Carr, or the kid from Central Florida or even Manziel may drop. Heard on espn radio this morning that the central florida (Bortles?) is clutch. Didn't they beat Louisville with a game winning drive. The scout on the radio was high on this kid.

I wrote a whole post about being nervous about smaller college QBs. The central florida kid was terrible against UH (200 yards, 0 TDs, 1 pick). And I think I dismiss anyone who doesn't dominate at the mid-level. Then I looked at the top 20 NFL passers and found...

Rothleisberger, Dalton, Romo, Flacco, Alex Smith, and Kaepernick.

All of them were outside of the power conferences (although TCU and Utah moved into those conferences after these guys). None are what I would dream of from a top overall pick, but if we are drafting in round 2 and came away with one of those guys it would be a good pick (and many were 2nd round picks precisely because they went to smaller schools).

Of course, David Carr was a mid tier conference guy who smoked the competition. So you never really know, no matter where they played in college. Hopefully the new HC/GM is better at guessing than I am.

I saw some of his game over the past weekend vs San Jose State and he impressed (as did SJSU QB David Fales), and his team is scheduled to play again Saturday night and it may be nationally televised, not sure ?
Wow, wouldn't it be a real dilemma for McNair/Texans if they decided that Carr was their top choice in next years Draft and they ending up having the opportunity to in fact choose him ?
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http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/12/04/...#storylink=cpy
Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr was named the Sammy Baugh Award winner and receiver Davante Adams earned the Paul Warfield Award, the Touchdown Club of Columbus announced Wednesday.
Carr has completed 388 of 552 yards for 4,462 yards and 45 touchdowns. He joins older brother and former Bulldogs star David Carr as the first brothers to both win the Baugh Award, which has honored college football's top passer since 1959.

I'd have no reservations about putting Carr in a Texans uni just because his last name was Carr.

IMO, the Texans ruined David's chances at becoming a decent NFL QB, as we literally gave him a scrap heap OLine to work with for the first 4 years.

If he's the dude, he's the dude, and I don't care what his last name is.

In 2004, I bellieved we would win a super bowl with Carr at the helm. I guess that dream can still come true.

Second chances in life as the saying goes, so maybe Bob McNair may end up thinking just that with about another Carr from Fresno State and his dream to win a SB ?
I have no recollection about reports re the owner's relationship with the Carr family after David's departure from the local scene, but I'm guessing it wasn't entirely amicable ?

Can't tell you but I remember Mrs. Carr had some problems with the way fans treated her and her husband, something Mrs. Schaub now probably shares.

Here's a pretty special TD pass. Not a great QB decision but some pretty ridiculous arm strength.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/yahoo-...6745.html?vp=1

The only incident I can recall, and I don't know if it is true or not, is when someone reportedly poured a beer (and I'm sure some expletives) on Carr's wife during a game. I think it was Carr's last year here when it happened. The family may have a problem with the fans, but I don't recall anything being reported as to there being animosity between Carr and McNair when he left. There shouldn't have been - at least from Carr's perspective. McNair paid him a ton of money and graciously exercised his contract option when he probably shouldn't have.

A QB viewing guide for the bowl season:
 

Saturday, Dec. 21
2:30 pm, ABC
Derek Carr (Sr.), Fresno St. vs. USC

Saturday, Dec. 28
5:45 pm, ESPN
Teddy Bridgewater (Jr.), Louisville vs. Miami

Monday, Dec. 30
5:45 pm, ESPN
Marcus Mariota (So., says he's not coming out but nothing's final until the deadline passes), Oregon vs. Texas

Tuesday, Dec. 31
1:00 pm, CBS
Brett Hundley (So.), UCLA vs. Virginia Tech

7:00 pm, ESPN
Johnny Manziel (So.), Texas A&M vs. Duke

Wednesday, Jan. 1
7:30 pm, ESPN
Blake Bortles (Jr.), Central Florida vs. Baylor

Thursday, Jan. 2
7:30 pm, ESPN
A.J. McCarron (Sr.), Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Friday, Jan. 3
7:30 pm, ESPN
Tajh Boyd (Sr.), Clemson vs. Ohio St.

So thanks for the schedule Warren, that's gonna come in real handy.
So I did watch part of the Fresno-USC game yesterday and David's little brother did not impress at all. OK, so I saw him in some of the San Jose State game
a couple weeks ago, and he was much better then than yesterdays effort.
Next up is Bridgewater, and he's still the top-rated QB prospect so I'm really looking forward to his Bowl game as I've not seen him at all yet.

Got an armchair QB look at Bridgewater in his bowl game yesterday. Impressive 4-TD performance in a blowout win.

What struck me about him in this game is how he seemed like an ideal WCO QB, which is ironic because he would probably fit Kubiak's offense quite well. The short- and medium range accuracy is very good, and he seems to just have a lower heart rate than most under a blitz. Pocket awareness and mobility is very good. He has a low and very quick release. Willing to take what the defense gives him. Has nice touch on his passes, though his deep balls seem to be 50/50s...

The thought of him having Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to catch his passes is intriguing.

As I mentioned above, I want a QB adept at reading defenses and performing well under a blitz. Teddy did that in this bowl game.

I think we'll hear about his measurables being a key negative in the pre-draft talk. For anyone wanting to believe this line of thinking, go do an image search on Tom Brady at his NFL Combine. I'm not concerned.

Word was that GM Rick Smith was in Orlando watching this game live.

I came away impressed as well. Very nice arm, accuracy, and release -- seemingly with a flick of the wrist he zipped the ball around the field, right where it needed to be. While he's obviously very mobile, he did more moving around to keep the pass play alive than taking off down the field. That should help him stay healthy in the NFL, especially until he beefs up some.

I thought he looked great but as I have repeatedly said I am the worst person in the world at knowing how a college quarterback's skills will translate in the NFL.

I also suck at gift wrapping beyond anything you can possible imagine.

Luck/RG3 vs. Bridgewater... Feels like we're getting the K-Mart blue light special with our #1 overall. He's OK, but #1 overall? I think I'd rather take my chances someone decent will be there at our #2 or #3. This kid, Brent Smith, from Wyoming seems intriguing as a mid-to-late round pick.

I'd rather not draft a QB than take someone "decent" in the 2nd or 3rd round. You don't win with decent QBs. If we are in love with some guy with a 3rd round grade and like him more than Bridgewater, then wait and draft him at the top of the 3rd (maybe he's Russell Wilson after all). Or if we don't like the 1st round options pass on drafting a QB altogether.

But why tie ourselves to a decent young QB that stops us from acquiring a great young QB for the next 2-3 years. If the talent at QB is bad in this draft, just sign a vet and delay the young gun for a year. Don't draft an Andy Dalton in the 2nd round, hoping he can edvelop into 2011 Matt Schaub so we can get bounced in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs again.

Draft the young QB you are convinced will be great or don't draft one at all.

I for one hope that last night made someone in the NFL fall in love with Teddy enough to trade up for him.

I will simply add that Andy Dalton is somehow, some way 11-5. Dalton is not terrible but he is nowhere near good.

Actually, sometimes he is terrible.

By using the term "decent" I didn't mean "settle" for some schlep. I'm saying if Bridgewater isn't worth the first pick and someone else is (Clowney, perhaps), then use it on that player rather than reach at QB. Furthermore, I'm sure a lot of people considered Russell Wilson a "decent" prospect last year. Same with Foles and others... I'm merely saying use the pick wisely and not just draft a QB #1 overall just because you need a QB. If they find Bridgewater is head and shoulders above the other prospects and he's the guy, then so be it. Personally, I like Bridgewater. However, I also like some of the other QB prospects and think at least 2 or 3 of them will be really good NFL QBs.

Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl last year for crying out loud. Proof you don't have to reach at QB with your #1 overall.

Joe Flacco was a first round pick.

Those are my sentiments, because I'm concerned the Texans will be under so much pressure to bring in a "promising" young QB prospect now to reinvigorate fan interest/support they might very well reach for a QB in this years Draft.

He wasn't a #1 overall. Besides, there are many great QB's that weren't first rounder's, let alone #1 overall's. Trade down if need be. Actually, I think Clowney will be the one that someone will want to trade up for.

I hope they resist the pressure to draft Manziel the way they resisted the pressure to draft Vince Young. But Rick Smith is going to get an earful from a lot of Aggies who think Johnny Football is God (just as Longhorns did with Casserly about VY).

If they don't like Bridgewater, I hope they trade down a few notches and get Matthews.

A 1st round pick is still the most common way to get a playoff QB.

Manning - 1st overall
Brady - 6th
Dalton - top of 2nd
Luck - 1st overall
Smith - 1st overall
Rivers - High 1st
Wilson - 3rd
Newton - 1st overall
Rodgers - low 1st
Foles - 3rd?
Brees - top of 2nd
Kaepernick - 2nd

So that is 6 (50%) 1st round picks, 3 2nd round picks (25%), 2 3rds, and a 6th. Now some of those 1st and 2nd round picks are no longer with the team that drafted them, but it still shows where the talent at QB is. It is in the top of the draft more than any other position. I would gaurantee there is not another position on those playoff rosters that has;

50% 1st round picks
75% in the first two rounds
66% in the top 35 picks
33% THE TOP OVERALL PICK


QB is the most important position and for the most part it is accurately projected from college to the NFL. This does not mean there are not misses on high picks, it means that there are fewer stars that slip past round 1 (compared to other positions). Two of the lower picks are Kaepernick and Wilson and they came out when the NFL was still slow to pick up on mobile QBs. They would be first rounders today (just look where Marriota and Manziel project). That leaves Tom Brady as the great hope of teams not willing to pay an elite price tag for the most important position in football. If we can get Brady in rounds 3-7 I am all for it.

If not I would prefer we draft a QB where the QB talent is found, in round 1 or the top of round 2. If we are not going to, sign a veteran (likely a guy who used to be a 1st rounder) and move forward.

If you look at Superbowl winners instead of playoff teams it gets even more apparent. 7 of the last 8 superbowls have been won by 1st round picks and the 8th was Drew Brees who was drafted near the top of round 2. It's a passing league and you have to invest your draft picks and money accordingly.

IMO, there is no such thing as a reach for a QB, at least not within the 1st round; i.e., someone who was worth the 9th pick but not the 1st. If a guy can play, you can't pick him too early. The position is just that important. If he can't, well, he shouldn't be picked in the 1st round at any spot.

I think they have to decide who they think the best QB in this draft is and, assuming they don't think that even the best prospect is a longshot, they have to roll the dice with him and hope they get it right.

I think this is a great point that is underestimated in the days of fantasy football fanatics. It takes two to trade, and there are no guarantees the QB is there x picks later. And if another team isn't trading up, then you wait 32 picks until it gets on the clock again. That is an eternity. If the Texans have a 1st round grade on a QB in April, then taking him 1.1 is the way to go.

Just hope they're honest about their grades internally.

As for QBs... Oregon game on later today...

I totally agree and think it is doubly true with the current rookie salary scale.

If Houston has a favorite QB he should be the pick. If there is no QB you want, then don't draft one period.

Sure you can. For example if you have the 1st overall, but have another team setting on the 5th overall willing to give you that pick, their second round pick, and their 1st rounder for next year you'd be foolish not to strongly consider making that deal if you think your QB prospect wouldn't be picked any higher than 9th overall. Of course that's all very hypothetical, but Draft day situations like that happen every year.

But that's not a question of reaching for someone too early. That's getting the guy you wanted all along while being able to trade back and pick up some additional picks in the process. Of course no one disputes this would be a good outcome.

When people talk about reaching, they are talking about taking a guy X number of picks too early because of the purported value. My point is I can't conceive of a scenario where a QB would be "good value" at No. 5 but not at No 1. At either pick, the player only justifies his draft position if he turns out to be a good/great QB. I think this pretty much holds for the entire 1st round. If you take a QB in the 1st round, you think he's a potential franchise guy. If he turns out to be a franchise guy, he would have been worth the No. 1 pick. If he doesn't, he wasn't worth using a 1st rounder on no matter where he was taken.

I presented a very hypothetical situation where a team could have it's cake and eat it too, that's all.

In your hypothetical it may look like a guy is slotted at 9, but all it takes is one draft trade in the intervening 4 picks and you end up without the QB you wanted. Now if your hypothetical is not only presenting a godfather trade down package, but also the gaurantee that the player we desired will still be there at 5, then I would absolutely hypothetically pull the hypothetical trigger (hypothetically speaking of course).

But even with an awesome offer like that we still would have no idea if the number 9 prospect will be there at #5.

Sure. But this hypo requires us to identify the best QB in the draft while everyone else in the league doesn't recognize that he's the best (why else would he be around in the middle of the first round?). Then, after outwitting the league in general, we have to outwit a specific team and convince them to make a godfather trade, presumably to move up to take some other QB other than the one we're targeting because no one makes that kind of trade for anyone but a QB. That's a whole lot to assume. I mean, if you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly. Just hypothesize us getting a Tom Brady in the 6th round.

The arguments for waiting to get a QB later in the draft (look! plenty of examples!! Brady was a 6th! Foles was a 3rd!) have a lot to do with the flaws of the modern CYA scouting process, namely, guys (incl the GM) won't stand on the table for someone who doesn't pass an eyeball test in the first round.

They have to have all the PHYSICAL tangibles to go with the perceived intangibles. Sometimes, these unicorns truly appear (Elway, Luck, etc.). Oftentimes, great prospects slip because they aren't Adonis in gym shorts. That doesn't mean that if the right QB is there where he is graded (say Round 1), you pass if he isn't a unicorn. Hopefully if there is a Brady or a Wilson in this draft, the Texans recognize it and take him in round 1. If a Brady was in the 2014 draft, would you wait until the 6th round to draft him? Of course not.

On a different subject, I wish I could evaluate Mariota, but this gimmicky Ducks offense is making it quite hard. I could care less if he runs wild over the Longhorns; that's not happening in the NFL over the course of a full NFL season. Running QBs get hurt. Mariota has more going for him though beyond his legs... hopefully I'll see more of it later. Just watched him make a great move in the pocket to elude a rusher and find a receiver on the sideline in the 3rd Q... that's impressive. Need to see more of that.

Yes, it's impossible for me to tell if Mariota is any good. It's annoying as hell.