Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings]
 

There's now a two-game gap between the haves and have nots in the AFC playoff race. The haves:

Houston 8-1
Baltimore 7-2
New England 6-3
Denver 6-3
Indianapolis 6-3
Pittsburgh 6-3

The rest of the conference is 4-5 or worse. While the Texans hope to fatten their record at home against the Jaguars, Baltimore plays at Pittsburgh and Indianapolis plays at New England.

The NFC side is murkier with eight teams in the mix and Dallas can creep within a game of the Giants in the NFC East if they can beat the Browns at home despite having a losing record at present.

I am truly impressed at what Indy has done. I saw them as a 4-5 win team for the season, and now they are battling for a playoff spot. Very impressive.

If Ben is done for the regular season, I could see Cincy back in, just don't have alot of faith in Leftwhich, and thier D is not what it was.

Obviously, the road is clear for the Texans and the #1 spot. Just need to stay healthy, and not drop more than 2. Baltimore will drop another, maybe 2, they are wildly inconsistent. At the end of the road, I can see Denver and NE fighting with us at the top. We have head to head over Denver, but probably won't have it over NE.

I could see us dropping the NE game and the last Indy game (assuming it doesn't matter much), ending up at 13-3, but you never know about that Oops games. If the last Indy game means something (#1 vs. #2), it will be interesting if Kubiak plays it out, or cashes it in.

Only other probable option for NE to drop a game is when the host San Fran, so they will likely end up with 12 or 13 W's. Others could happen, but that is the last likely candidate.

I forget what the composition of the first playoff-weekend/WC-weekend ? Is it 2 WC teams & 2 Division champs & 2 Byes per conference, or is it 3 WC teams & 1 Division champ & 3 Byes per conference ?

It's pretty clear to me that Denver is the second best team in the conference and quite possibly the second best team in football.

The top 2 seeds are off, 3 plays 6, 4 plays 5. 5 an 6 are the wild card teams, 3 and 4 are the other 2 division winners. Scheduling of Saturday vs. Sunday early/late depends on TV draw/anticipated ratings.

The nice thing about being the #1 seed, is we play indoors throughout the playoffs. Slip to the 2, and we could end up in Denver or NE in late January. We could also still end up at home for the AFC Champ game, but more things would need to fall our way (IE, 4 or 5 knocks off 1 in the division round).

I think Houston matches up well with Denver. Manning is performing surgery with short throws and smart audibles, but I think that is the worst strategy to attack the texans defense. You need big plays or we will create a negative play to kill a drive. Plus our DBs squatted on their routes all day. I think we beat Denver 9 times out of 10.

I would not want to face Brady in bad weather, but manning has always been better indoor. If we somehow finished behind Denver I would not mind playing them in the snow.

That would make Texas clearly the best team in football.

no arguments here.

In a second meeting Wade would attack Peyton with blitzes he hasn't seen. Their running game doesn't concern me and although their defense is very good and seems to get better every week our offense has so many ways to move the ball, control the ball and score that I think we can cause any defense problems.

If our guys stay healthy (and in a couple of cases get healthy) I will be very, very upset if any AFC team proves to be better.

And I would like to take a moment to congratulate Kareem Jackson for not sucking anymore. I would have to imagine that JJo has been spending some quality time with Young Master Kareem.

Gotta think the Texans ain't done with Sunday Night Football, yet. They have to be under heavy consideration to get flexed in vs. Minnesota (wk 16) or the two games with the Colts (wk 15 & 17) and the draw of media darling Andrew Luck....

To add to the post above..... from the506:

It looks like all the SNF games will probably stay in their place except maybe SD/NYJ in Week 16. The matchups up until then are all pretty good.

I totally forgot about flex games ! Man is it ever nice being a real contender and "in the conversation", thanks for bringing it up Arky. Yep, we could get even more PT this season.

Detroit at Green Bay may look like a dog by the time that game rolls around but there isn't anything else noticeably better that week.

Yes, Week 16 (San Diego at NY Jets) appears to be a major candidate for flexing. Minnesota is a good matchup but so are New Orleans at Dallas and NY Giants at Baltimore.

The problem is that Fox has the rights to all three games and the game being tossed back is a CBS game so the NFL might move a CBS game to Fox in order to balance it out.

Another problem for some local fans is that the Texans and Cowboys are presently both scheduled for Noon on Fox that day meaning Fox affiliates throughout the state will have to choose which came to carry unless one of them gets moved to a later time.

The Texans and Cowboys have the same conflict this Sunday, except it is on CBS with Jacksonville at Houston and Cleveland at Dallas both slated for a Noon start. If you're outside Houston, now's the time to lobby your local CBS affiliate.

Week 13 Philadelphia at Dallas on SNF.... if Dallas loses another game or two, that one could be a scratch... that would be a first. However, the NFL loves them some Cowboys...

After another nailbiter, the Texans maintain their conference lead but the division leaders made ground on the wild card hopefuls with one more team jumping into contention:

1. Houston 9-1 (AFC South)
2. Baltimore 8-2 (AFC North)
3. New England 7-3 (AFC East)
4. Denver 7-3 (AFC West)
5. Indianapolis 6-4 (Wild Card 1) (4-3 in conf)
6. Pittsburgh 6-4 (Wild Card 2) (3-4 in conf)
--------
7. Cincinnati 5-5 (3-5 in conf)

The Bengals have two ways to get in - they can overtake Indy or hope that Indy ends the year with six conference losses while Cincy runs the table against AFC opponents OR they can beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh in Week 16 and hope to get other divisional tiebreakers to swing their way (PIT is 1-1 in the division while Cincy is 1-3 - Pittsburgh won, 24-17, in Cincy earlier in the season).

So the Bengals are clearly on the outside looking in but if they run the table with SD, OAK, DAL and PHI then beat PIT, it may come down to beating Baltimore in the final week for them.

All the 4-6 teams (BUF, SD, MIA, NYJ, TEN) will need to put on a surge to get into the playoffs.

Incidentally, this site calculates that the Texans have a 72% chance to get the #1 seed and a <1% chance of missing the playoffs altogether.

I really wonder how the injury situations will change things for the AFC when all is said and done. Ben and such hurt in Pittsburgh, Gronkowski hurt in New England (might miss the game against us, even?), all of Baltimore's stuff, Cushing.....

Really interesting. If the playoffs started this coming weekend, I'd be most scared of Denver and New England. Boy, wouldn't it be something if we faced Peyton in the playoffs? I gotta admit, the prospect of facing Manning for a second time in one season scares the shit out of me.

Denver just lost Willis McGahee for 6-8 weeks and none of his backups are all that steady. Without a running game for play action, Manning might be less effective. He still has problems getting his Denver receivers in sync and seems to rely on Brandon Stokely when he needs a critical third down. But Denver's defense is a lot better than when the Texans played them and they just added LB D.J. Williams back from a nine-week suspension.

I'm most worried about New England. But if we stay the #1 seed and they become the #2 or #3 seed, we won't see them until the AFC Championship Game.

ESPN has just posted their "Playoff Machine" online

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Just enter all your "what if" scenarios and see how it comes out.

So the Texans just missed clinching a wild card spot this weekend, but doing so next Sunday is very likely.

A Texans win over the Titans, and I believe they not only clinch a wild card spot, but they will have clinched no worse than the #5 seed.

Even if the Texans lose, a Dolphins loss (against the Patriots) clinches the #6 seed. Or, the combo of both the Bengals and Steelers losing gives them at least the #6 seed as well. If all four teams lose (Texans, Dolphins, Bengals, and Steelers), then the Texans are the #5.

They cannot yet clinch the division in Week 13 as the Colts are still too close with both head-to-head games to play.

ok... scenarios aside, the team seems likely to get one of the top 2 seeds with the big Week 14 match in New England pending. The likely AFC wild cards seem weak this season (aside from an interesting Denver-Indy matchup), so the Texans seem likely to host Denver or Baltimore in the divisional round then possibly the Pats for the AFC championship.

Based on how the pass D has looked the last two games, a shootout against Tom Brady seems daunting, but legit talk about deep AFC playoff matchups in late November is refreshing around here.

Looks like "Next Man Up" applies to the D this year. Hopefully Wade and crew can find the right recipe of players and dial up the right schemes to keep the W's coming. I think we should be good if we can get two more AFC wins out of the remaining games. Sure would've been nice had the Chargers taken care of business and beat the Ravens yesterday.

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

I don't see Bmore winning out.
Thier remaining schedule is brutal:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Pittsburgh 4:25 PM CBS
14 Sun, Dec 9 @Washington 1:00 PM CBS
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs Denver 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs New York (G) 1:00 PM FOX
17 Sun, Dec 30 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS

In all honesty, I can see them dropping 2 or even 3 of those games.

Just my opinion, but I believe the top 2 will come from HOU, NE or DEN, in that order.

Denvers remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Tampa Bay 4:05 PM FOX
14 Thu, Dec 6 @Oakland 8:20 PM NFL
15 Sun, Dec 16 @Baltimore 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 4:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 4:25 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Tampa, who's been playing pretty well, and @Bmore.

NE's remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 @Miami 1:00 PM CBS
14 Mon, Dec 10 vs Houston 8:30 PM
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs San Francisco 8:20 PM NBC
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Houston, ;), and San Fran.

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

gotta agree here. i do think the texans drop at least one game, if not two before the end of the season, but i think you have to say that either the pats or ravens (if not both) probably lose a game as well.

baltimore is not good enough to win out. they have played terribly on the road this year and should have lost yesterday to san diego

Question:

How many games have the Broncos, Ravens and Patriots lost the last four weeks?

Answer: none. We went 4-0 in November and didn't gain any ground on anyone. Thinking those teams can continue to play above the rest of the AFC is not unrealistic at all.

If the Patriots played Houston in Houston, I'd feel better about the Texans perhaps winning it. If the Ravens played Denver in Denver, I could see the Broncos winning that. But the fact that those key games (and SF at NE) are in Foxboro and Baltimore, means the home team probably wins in cold weather.

The Ravens are a much better team at home. Just look up the scores. If Big Ben doesn't play against the Ravens, Baltimore wins that too.

BTW, worst case scenario is if Schaub and Foster get hurt and we limp in at 10-6.

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

Its the Houston Pro Football Illness. People catch it every now and then, and if you don't watch it, it can be contagious. Thankfully, it usually doesn't last more than 6 days, at least it hasn't this year. ;)

There you have it. A perfect explanation for why everything will break against us.

Of course you could spin it all the opposite way if you felt like it. Baltimore and NE didn't lose in November but made up no ground...

How about a simple question. What kind of odds would you need to place money on both those teams going undefeated the rest of the way?

I meant to quote Bob there.

I know one thing: MNF matchup of Texans vs. Pats two games from now is already being discussed/anticipated as the NFL Game of the Year in one of the (national) sports betting forums I peruse. Would not surprise me if the Pats are a small favorite in this one.... I'm just hoping the Texans will be healthy enough to acquit themselves well..... But right now, a W at Tennessee is just as important...

on the pats, i wouldn't count out miami from steeling a win from them in one of their two remaining games either.

Let's face it, we're going to find out which are the truly elite teams down this stretch. Each of the four teams we're discussing will have ample opportunity to make its case.

Scratch Bmore from the list. Its now a 3 horse race.

Thank you Charlie Batch?
Wow......

Yep. It now looks like this:

Houston 11-1
New England 9-3
Baltimore 9-3
Denver 9-3
Indianapolis 8-4
Cincinnati 7-5
Pittsburgh 7-5

We got a 2 game lead on everyone else. Cincy and Pittsburgh - only one of those two advances. We've beaten 2 of 3 of our closest competitors and face the third (New England) on Monday night. Should be a real rip snorter.... ;)

Nick Scurfield (@NickScurfield) tweeted:
#Texans would clinch the top seed in the AFC next week if they win & BAL (at WAS), DEN (at OAK) & IND (vs TEN) all lose

Amazing, though unlikely.

Amazing to do it this early then go more than a month before participating in another meaningful game.

Unlikely because the Raiders and Titans aren't beating anybody.