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-   -   Official Texans vs. Raiders Game Thread, 11/17/2013 (http://inthebullseye.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1716)

Arky 11-18-2013 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith (Post 36364)
Heh, at this point I would have to consider what sort of negative impacts the coaching or gameplanning might have on his production.

That aside, I don't think it is a fluke that he has struggled in 2nd halves... NFL teams adjust.

But the Texans don't counter (adjust). So many times in the 2nd halves, I've seen Keenum swarmed and not a checkdown guy in sight.... I really don't think he's (Keenum) a first-half QB only - the 2nd halves have been puzzling to say the least....

Quote:

All of those great stats Keenum has have come from broken plays he has extended due to his healthy legs feasting on a slacking secondary that forgets to keep their man in front of them. I watch kids playing flag football learn to make this defensive adjustment, so of course pro teams can too.
Well, we all know the deal with stats but they can't be dismissed when evaluating.... Stats are evidentiary - eyeballs fill in the rest.....

Every QB in the league is taped/filmed yet some still manage to get the job done on Sundays for all 4 quarters. At this point in time, I'm pointing the finger at the coaching for not counter-adjusting. Not so sure the problem is Keenum and I'm really not sure what "fresh legs" has to do with it. Probably helps to have "fresh legs" when you're running for your life.... ;)

Quote:

And I mention "healthy legs"... a) he's still young, and b) he hasn't made it hardly a month yet. Point being, those fresh legs he has now to extend these plays may not be so fresh in December and January when it would (in theory) really count in future seasons.

Which is part of why he looks like a career backup to me and maybe Flutie is an interesting comparison. The kind of QB that could play an extended stretch of amazing football, but not a decade-long starter that the team may have an opportunity to select in April's draft.

And Brees is definitely the upside, but consider too, Brees is the huge exception to the rule. For all I know, Raider fans think UDFA McGloin is the next Tony Romo, not Case Keenum. How's that for persective?
And why can't Keenum be an exception (like Brees)? Brees has been running around in the backfield for 13 years - good thing he's still got "fresh legs". ;) Keenum's ability to extend plays is a positive..... He's not a Cunningham/VY/RGIII/etc type, IMO.

If I was a Raider fan, I'd be thrilled. I think I heard McGloin has earned another start... This is the way stars are born (seriously)...... McGloin has certainly got the league's attention after Sunday.

Keenum may very well end up career backup or even a flash-in-the-pan. Just, some of us aren't so quick to slap the gavel down just yet. At this point in time, I'm betting a lot of offensive coordinators around the league would love to have him....

popanot 11-19-2013 09:01 AM

The frustrating part is Keenum will likely be part of this team next year whether it's in a starting role or backup role, and anyone not named Gary Kubiak knows Schaub's time is done. Keenum should be playing as much as possible in every imaginable game situation as to prepare him for next year. Kubiak's decision to put Schaub in the game was incredibly arrogant, naïve, totally uncalled for and unproductive and he should have been fired for it.

WMH 11-19-2013 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by popanot (Post 36367)
The frustrating part is Keenum will likely be part of this team next year whether it's in a starting role or backup role, and anyone not named Gary Kubiak knows Schaub's time is done. Keenum should be playing as much as possible in every imaginable game situation as to prepare him for next year. Kubiak's decision to put Schaub in the game was incredibly arrogant, naïve, totally uncalled for and unproductive and he should have been fired for it.

I'm not so sure about that. Really depends on if there is a coaching change or not. If McNair actually pulls the trigger, and I'm still thinking he won't, Keenum being around isn't a sure thing. He's short, not all that fast, and can't read the blitz. We'll likely have a high 1 regardless, and a new regime will want new blood @ the QB spot.

HPF Bob 11-19-2013 09:11 AM

p.s. - those "well-respected" Astros just got dissed on Jeopardy!, Chuck.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...ardy-question/

chuck 11-19-2013 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 36369)
p.s. - those "well-respected" Astros just got dissed on Jeopardy!, Chuck.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...ardy-question/

My overall point was that the Astros are respected within the professional baseball community, not within the game show writers' community.

barrett 11-19-2013 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WMH (Post 36368)
I'm not so sure about that. Really depends on if there is a coaching change or not. If McNair actually pulls the trigger, and I'm still thinking he won't, Keenum being around isn't a sure thing. He's short, not all that fast, and can't read the blitz. We'll likely have a high 1 regardless, and a new regime will want new blood @ the QB spot.

A new coach will either pick him as the QB (unlikely),or send him out of town. No way will a new coach want a local cult hero as the backup to a hand picked rookie. Unfortunately for Case, his best chance at playing time is Kubiak keeping his job.

popanot 11-19-2013 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WMH (Post 36368)
I'm not so sure about that. Really depends on if there is a coaching change or not. If McNair actually pulls the trigger, and I'm still thinking he won't, Keenum being around isn't a sure thing. He's short, not all that fast, and can't read the blitz. We'll likely have a high 1 regardless, and a new regime will want new blood @ the QB spot.

I don't disagree with what you say, but even if we do draft a QB and he starts, I think the odds are still good Keenum is here next year. His odds go up dramatically if Kubiak is still here. My point being, Schaub is done and playing him over Keenum in any situation other than injury makes ZERO sense and is totally unproductive as far as the future of this team.

popanot 11-19-2013 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrett (Post 36371)
A new coach will either pick him as the QB (unlikely),or send him out of town. No way will a new coach want a local cult hero as the backup to a hand picked rookie. Unfortunately for Case, his best chance at playing time is Kubiak keeping his job.

I think it depends on who the coach is and what scheme they run. I don't think someone like Sumlin - just to use one example - would be scared or intimidated at all having Keenum as the backup or short-term starter.

Nconroe 11-19-2013 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WMH (Post 36368)
...Keenum being around isn't a sure thing. He's short, not all that fast, and can't read the blitz. ....

I think those are debateable or not overly strong concerns. Results seem pretty good for a QB. Team does need to improve for sure.

Case is 6'1" which is not really short. There are other successful QB's even shorter right now and most of big names in past were shorter than this. Taller does not mean better.

Not at all fast, in what way?, he seems to have plenty of escapability and movement to avoid lots of trouble and has some good runs for gains. This seems kind of a off base complaint to me, not what my eyes have seen.

Recognizing the blitz - could be, maybe, I suppose lots of QBs have lots to learn their first year or two in the league. Seems the OL and RB whiffing on blocks is a worse concern. I mean what I've seen is Defense is on Keenum really quick on some of these plays. Seems more than fixable with experience.

Accuracy and arm strength seem pretty good from what I've seen.

Team leadership is also pretty high it appears.

Local cult hero, perhaps for some? not to me since I didn't go to UH. I do think a new coach would possibly want his own choice in there, whether Case gets to compete, not sure.

I am glad Keenum is the starter this coming weekend and hope that continues the rest of the year so we can see more before all these decisions need to be made.

Arky 11-19-2013 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by popanot (Post 36367)
The frustrating part is Keenum will likely be part of this team next year whether it's in a starting role or backup role, and anyone not named Gary Kubiak knows Schaub's time is done. Keenum should be playing as much as possible in every imaginable game situation as to prepare him for next year. Kubiak's decision to put Schaub in the game was incredibly arrogant, naïve, totally uncalled for and unproductive and he should have been fired for it.

Yep. In this game day thread, I actually typed in an expletive (something I try to avoid) when Schaub came in. I might be the last person in Houston who was OK with Kubes coming back next year, but it was like watching someone commit career suicide. (Or, if you're into graphic movies, watching someone slit their own throat).

WMH 11-19-2013 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nconroe (Post 36374)
I think those are debateable or not overly strong concerns. Results seem pretty good for a QB. Team does need to improve for sure.

I would agree, he has been good for the Texans. But is that a positive for Keenum, or a negative against Schuab? I'm thinking that we have been so deprived of adequate QB play for a while now, we are seeing things that we just aren't accustomed to seeing. He has made some great plays, school yard style and no doubt it has been fun to watch.

BUT, my dings against Case are likely the same one an incoming coach would have. Based on the sample size, would you rather have Case, Mariotta, Bridgewater, JFF, Taj Boyd, etc?

I'm of the opinion that Case would lose that battle with all of them if anyone but Kubiak is making the decision.

popanot 11-19-2013 02:52 PM

I don't think there is any question the Texans will draft a QB next year and that QB will compete for the starting job regardless how well Keenum does or who is here as far as QB and/or coaching staff. When to draft one is up for debate, but it would be absolutely foolish for this franchise NOT to draft a QB. Here's what we know...

Schaub = Out - No way the fans let McNair off the hook with Schaub
Yates = Out - Yates who? I'm nearly as confident in saying he's gone just as much as I'm am saying Schaub is gone
Keenum = Unknown - Way too many playing and coaching factors to determine his future right now
FA QB = Doubtful - Cutler's the only starting-level FA QB I know of at this time and who wants him? Weeden, Vick, Blabbert??? Bleh!!

If you look at the above, we'll definitely need 1 or 2 more QBs and the draft or a trade (Cousins - or to a lesser extent RG3, maybe?) are the only viable options.

Nconroe 11-19-2013 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WMH (Post 36376)
Based on the sample size, would you rather have Case, Mariotta, Bridgewater, JFF, Taj Boyd, etc?

I'm of the opinion that Case would lose that battle with all of them if anyone but Kubiak is making the decision.

Fair enough, I guess I plan to hold off on my opinion on Keenums rating till after next six games.

It does look like Bridgewater and Mariota are becoming near consensus top two picks at this time, both of these guys are kind of skinny at 210 pounds.

You forgot Derek Carr and Johnny Manziel.

And agree we will likely draft a QB somewhere in top 3 rounds.

some info on top qb's here, some you mentioned are shorter than Case.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...p-qbs-fit-best

barrett 11-19-2013 04:37 PM

Case is by far the best QB on the Texans right now. I am a huge fan. I got goosebumps at the Sunday night game against the Colts when he came out of the tunnel and the stadium went nuts. He needs to play every snap he is healthy for the rest of this season. I have always thought Yates was terrible and don't need to see anything out of him. Schaub should only see the field if Case goes down.

But I have seen nothing that makes me think Case is the future QB. All of the timing routes in our offense are gone. I have not seen him hit a seam route, an out that did not include a moving pocket or scramble, the deep in (AJ's bread and butter for years), and the drag has been limited (he hit Graham late off a designed roll out that turned into a scramble and an across the body throw). He doesn't pick up blitzes at all. I said that after the first week, after the second, and again now.

He throws a beautiful deep ball and escapes the pocket. He is accurate on the run. Could an offense be tailored to him and those strengths? Perhaps. I think our inflexible staff has actually been very flexible with him and given him a ton of shotgun and even some pistol. He has far outplayed Schaub in his 4 starts, but we have still averaged just over 20 points per game in his starts (bottom third of the league in the BUF/STL/ARI territory). And our 2nd half output has been anemic in his 4 starts (6,3,7,and 6 that came from Schaub).

WMH hit the nail on the head when he said the great improvement in QB play is more a condemnation of Schaub than an endorsenment of Case.

Does all of this mean he is incapable of being an NFL QB? Not at all. But I have never seen a new HC bet his success and future on an UDFA with 10 games in the NFL. A new coach will rightfully want the right to be judged on his guy. Especially when that new coach will probably have a top 5 pick to spend. And if we are going with a high draft pick, I don't want Case on the team. You don't want a young guy who is loved in the locker room and worshipped by the fans as your backup while you develop a young QB. You want a veteran who is not a viable starting QB. Now if we went with a veteran next year, I'd love Case as competition/backup plan, but not as the guy a 1st round pick is having to look over his shoulder at.

So like I said, the only way I see Case playing for this team next year is with Kubiak at the controls. Kubiak can then sell McNair on the fact that he unearthed Case, and the 1st round pick can be spent helping compete next year rather than a semi rebuild. So if Case plays great and wins half the games down the stretch (JAX 2 Xs) we may end up with Case and Gary next year. I'd rather have another QB and anybody else.

Arky 11-19-2013 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WMH (Post 36376)
........have Case, Mariotta, Bridgewater, JFF, Taj Boyd, etc?

On that list, I see two Case Keenums, a Jake Locker and two Geno Smiths. ;)

Not to discourage discussion, but this can better be answered in the off season..... A head-to-head competition with each can never be answered. A hypothetical would just boil down to every individual's opinions....

If we get to see Case the rest of the year, we can better evaluate him... and then, just as important, what will happen with the coaching staff?

Nconroe: JFF = Johnny effin' Football

HPF Bob 11-19-2013 06:49 PM

Re: Reading the blitz - something only experience teaches and a QB from a spread offense is going to have trouble diagnosing pro defenses until he learns where the reads are in *real time*. That means playing experience and that's what Case is getting now.

Re: UDFA QB. Kinda nonsense. Would an incoming head coach turn down Tom Brady just because he was a 5th-rounder?

A lot of it will depend on what type of offense a new coach wants to run. If it's a West Coast offense like Kubiak's was based on, the expereience will be a plus. If it is not, there may be other players in the offense who aren't a good fit either.

p.s. - It's a shame this isn't one of those years with three can't miss QBs at the top of the draft board. I'm still solidly in the Matthews camp.

barrett 11-19-2013 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 36381)
Re: Reading the blitz - something only experience teaches and a QB from a spread offense is going to have trouble diagnosing pro defenses until he learns where the reads are in *real time*. That means playing experience and that's what Case is getting now.

Re: UDFA QB. Kinda nonsense. Would an incoming head coach turn down Tom Brady just because he was a 5th-rounder?

A lot of it will depend on what type of offense a new coach wants to run. If it's a West Coast offense like Kubiak's was based on, the expereience will be a plus. If it is not, there may be other players in the offense who aren't a good fit either.

p.s. - It's a shame this isn't one of those years with three can't miss QBs at the top of the draft board. I'm still solidly in the Matthews camp.

Bob, when was the last time an incoming head coach chose an UDFA with fewer than 10 pro games as his starting QB? Surely if Tom Brady's existence makes it nonsense it has happened before right? Surely some new coach bet his job and future on someone else's UDFA with a limited track record? (and just to correct you, Brady was a 6th rounder)

Oh wait...there's not one. OK.

Perception is reality in the NFL. That's how the Browns fleeced Indy for a 1st for Richardson. Until a young guy accomplishes something, he is largely defined by his draft value. High draft picks who don't perform at all and get cut in their first 2 years always catch on because it is accepted they are talented and the new organization thinks they are smarter than the old one and can get performance out of them.

Keenum has a limited track record of slightly above average QB play with an 0-4 record as a starter. He was passed on 7 times by every team in the league less than 2 years ago. Look at it this way. If Keenum is cut loose by the Texans this offseason do you think that an NFL team will give him a starting job. I mean pay him low starter money and enter training camp with him as their #1 QB? If not, why would a new coach who has no ties to him.

A new coach will want a QB of his own. There are only a few situations where a new coach doesn't get a new QB..

1) When he is hired to coach a contender with a star QB in place,
2) When he is hired on the strength of his ability to turn around a struggling QB who is thought to be "talented",
3) When the team is judged so bad and the QB class so weak that a team decides to fix something else first and stink for a year before getting a QB the following year.
4) Or when too much is invested (financially or in draft pick spent) in the current QB to replace him just yet.

The Texans don't really fall in any of those categories. So we would need a never happened before situation where some new coach bet his career on a 3rd stringer who put together an average stretch of QB play for a team that was crashing and losing all of their games. Now if he reels off 6 wins in a row while actually scoring points in the 2nd half it is a different discussion, but it is almost certainly Kubiak as his head coach in that scenario. Basically if he wins enough to be a real consideration as the Franchise's long term QB, than he probably saves Kubiak's job. If he doesn't, no way does a new guy keep him.

Joshua 11-19-2013 09:19 PM

Agree with Barrett. Just don't see any way a new coach would risk his career on an undrafted QB that literally no one wanted a mere 2 years ago.

And Brady is such an exception to the rule it's pointless to even bring him up. However, if you do want to hold him up as an example, doesn't that also lead to the conclusion that we shouldn't worry about the QB position because we can just draft a future HOFer in the 6th round?

Nconroe 11-20-2013 12:25 AM

Undrafted quarterback Jeff Garcia from San Jose State never led a team to a Super Bowl, but his staying power in the NFL makes him worthy of being on this list.****

Entering the league in 1999 after being an undrafted free agent passer who first played in the CFL after college, Garcia became the San Francisco 49ers' starting quarterback. He then went on to make four Pro Bowl appearances in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2007—the first three with the 49ers and the final one with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Nconroe 11-20-2013 12:31 AM

astern Illinois quarterback Tony Romo was an undrafted pickup by the Dallas Cowboys in 2003. He remained a backup on the roster until 2006, when then-starter Drew Bledsoe was injured and Romo was put in the starting position.

Arky 11-20-2013 12:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nconroe (Post 36385)
Eastern Illinois quarterback Tony Romo was an undrafted pickup by the Dallas Cowboys in 2003. He remained a backup on the roster until 2006, when then-starter Drew Bledsoe was injured and Romo was put in the starting position.

Ya, I believe one Tony Romo survived the Parcells --> W Phillips transition, too..... Does history repeat itself? Charismatic undrafted QB making it through a coaching change? Not unprecedented....

-------------------------------

Vandermeer reported on the radio Keenum #7 jerseys are flying off the shelves as Christmas presents....

Nconroe 11-20-2013 01:04 AM

1. Kurt Warner, QB, Northern Iowa
Signed by: St. Louis Rams
First year: 1998
NFL seasons: 12
Pro Bowls: 4
All-Pro selections: 2
Notes: In addition to being perhaps the greatest Cinderella story in NFL history, Warner is a two-time league MVP who has posted the three best single-game passing yardage totals in Super Bowl history.

Nconroe 11-20-2013 01:15 AM

4. Warren Moon, QB, Washington
Signed by: Houston Oilers
First year: 1984
NFL seasons: 17
Pro Bowls: 9
All-Pro selections: 0
Notes: Hall of Famer ranks in the top six all-time for career attempts, completions, yards and TD passes.

HPF Bob 11-20-2013 01:27 AM

Warren Moon was an undrafted free agent who even brought along his head coach (Hugh Campbell). Kurt Warner was a UDFA. Derek Anderson was a sixth-rounder that became the starting QB both in Cleveland and Arizona.

If he continues to start, Keenum will have half a season under his belt and, if he continues his current pace, he'll finish with a 99.0 QB rating, higher this year than Schaub (77.8), higher than Stafford (92.0), Newton (91.8), Roethlisberger (91.3), Ryan (89.2), Cutler (88.4), Luck (87.0), Dalton (85.2), Brady (83.6), RG3 (83.6) and Kaepernick (81.8).

But, of course, Keenum was never drafted so he'll never play again in this league. :rolleyes:

To be fair, ESPN.com has the Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) and rates him at 42.5 out of 100, a ranking still better than Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning, Matt Schaub, Terrell Pryor, Chad Henne, Geno Smith and Josh Freeman.

barrett 11-20-2013 08:13 AM

Where did I say anything about UDFA QBs not being able to play? I wrote about 1000 words because I love hearing myself talk, and none of them say anything about Case not being good because he is an UDFA. I said no new coach is going to take a guy with zero track record and zero pedigree.

You can bring up Romo but it isn't even a little similar. Romo survived the Parcells to Phillips transition after starting all 16 games for a 9-7 playoff team. He was already established as the starting QB and had led a team to the playoffs when they changed coaches. Not to mention a new coach was hired because Parcells left, not because he was fired. If Case led us to the playoffs I am pretty sure he would survive a new coach. Obviously that's not happening.

Tony Romo, Warren Moon, and Kurt Warner have nothing to do with whether a new coach will bet his career on a guy with no positive track record.

Joshua 11-20-2013 09:20 AM

To me, the question is simple. Do you think Case can become an elite QB? If not, you have to try and find one. While i think Case will likely be a serviceable QB, I'm very skeptical of him being great. We've had 8 years of serviceable quarterbacking and you saw where that got us-a damn near riot when our seviceable QB was put in the game last Sunday.

The game has changed. Between rule changes, changes in offensive philosophies, etc., I would argue that who your QB is is almost more important than who the other 52 guys on the team are. Texan fans should know this better than anyone, as we suffered through Manning and are just beginning the Luck era.

Joshua 11-20-2013 09:34 AM

And let me just add, if you like Case, how are you not drooling over JFF? All he has done is singlehandedly dominate the toughest conference in football as a redshirt freshman and sophomore in the offense Case ran in college. He's Case on steroids.

HPF Bob 11-20-2013 09:45 AM

All I'm saying is "don't throw him overboard just because he wasn't drafted". Give him a fair chance to win the job, which is probably the rest of 2013. Bring in another guy if you think he's better but the numbers say (at present) that Keenum is better than a lot of former high draft choices that fans drool over.

And don't judge solely on W-L record because he doesn't have the team's top TE, the team's top RB (also a UDFA if anyone recalls) and a piss-poor right side of an offensive line. However, it can be noted that every game he has played in, the Texans were close enough to win with a break or two. I don't hold him responsible for any of the four losses.

Arky 11-20-2013 10:28 AM

For the record, in 2006 the Cowboys were 3-3 after 6 games - Romo replacing Bledsoe in game #6 (a loss to NYG). This was the game, Parcells made the famous quip, (paraphrasing) "Let's not go and anoint him just yet" and everyone goes "har har har, oh, that Parcells.... such a wise and funny guy". But guess who Parcells starts the rest of the year?...... that's right, Tony Romo. Dallas went 6-4 the rest of the way, Romo bobbles the FG snap against Seattle and its over. Wade Phillips, already on the staff, comes in the next year as head coach. (This is a possibility with the Texans - Wade as replacement or placeholder)....

Arky 11-20-2013 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshua (Post 36392)
And let me just add, if you like Case, how are you not drooling over JFF? All he has done is singlehandedly dominate the toughest conference in football as a redshirt freshman and sophomore in the offense Case ran in college. He's Case on steroids.

I love JFF but I would be concerned with having two peas in a pod. I don't think he's as accurate as Case and he turns the ball over too much but what, he's still only 20 years old? He's very intriguing..... I'm concerned the NFL might rough him up ala RGIII..... But someone is gonna snag him - wouldn't object if the Texans did it....

barrett 11-20-2013 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 36393)
All I'm saying is "don't throw him overboard just because he wasn't drafted". Give him a fair chance to win the job, which is probably the rest of 2013. Bring in another guy if you think he's better but the numbers say (at present) that Keenum is better than a lot of former high draft choices that fans drool over.

And don't judge solely on W-L record because he doesn't have the team's top TE, the team's top RB (also a UDFA if anyone recalls) and a piss-poor right side of an offensive line. However, it can be noted that every game he has played in, the Texans were close enough to win with a break or two. I don't hold him responsible for any of the four losses.

The numbers can be decieving on many levels. I would not judge Case off of W/L record alone, but it's a factor. I would not judge him off passer rating alone, but it's a factor. We are a bad scoring offense with him playing QB and that's a factor. He has been awesome at big plays and deep balls. He has been bad at moving the chains. He has been great in the first quarter. He has been terrible in the 2nd half. He is playing without Foster. AJ appears to love him.

There is plenty to intrigue me. He has not played himself into or out of a job this year and may well do either down the stretch. If Kubiak is coming back the best option is probably Case, something else high in the draft, and an attempt at an immediate reload and hoping this year was an anomaly (from McNair's perspective). Then Kubiak and Case get a year to win a future here.

But if Kubiak is not coming back it's a near gaurantee Case isn't either. He just hasn't done anything in the pros that would make a new coach tie his star to him.

barrett 11-20-2013 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arky (Post 36395)
I love JFF but I would be concerned with having two peas in a pod. I don't think he's as accurate as Case and he turns the ball over too much but what, he's still only 20 years old? He's very intriguing..... I'm concerned the NFL might rough him up ala RGIII..... But someone is gonna snag him - wouldn't object if the Texans did it....

Almost all of these things concern me as well.

I don't think the RG3 thing worries me a ton though. RG3 is not elusive no matter how fast he is (world class speed). He is a straight line guy. Purely in terms of running ability, Manziel looks more like a faster Russel Wilson. He does it with pump fakes and spins and reversing his field and vision. When he scrambles it is essentially Sandlot football. Griffin is straight up field without a ton of wiggle when he scrambles, so guys get way more clean shots (plus he's bad about getting out of bounds or getting down). I don't recall a ton of clean shots on Manziel in the games I've watched. I think his tendency to turn the ball over is way more concerning than anything else.

Joshua 11-20-2013 12:04 PM

I don't see the accuracy issues with JFF. Isn't he leading all of college football in completion percentage at around 75%? While that's not the end-all, be-all, it's hard to lead the nation in completion percentage as an inaccurate QB.

Turnovers are somewhat of a concern but I'm not sure they aren't a function of him thinking he has to come away with points every possession. He'll never say it, of course, but I suspect he wouldn't take as many chances if his defense played a little better. Admittedly this is speculation on my part.

Arky 11-20-2013 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrett (Post 36396)
.............

But if Kubiak is not coming back it's a near gaurantee Case isn't either. He just hasn't done anything in the pros that would make a new coach tie his star to him.

Well, I disagree a bit here. If Kubes is gone and they bring in a defensive-minded head coach/coordinator, he may leave this decision to his offensive coordinator - depends on who that is..... If Wade is elected coach or placeholder, Keenum probably stays. Even an offensive minded head coach may or may not like what he sees in Keenum.... I see it as 50:50 dependent on Keenum's performance the rest of the year. If Keenum has a couple or 3 games where he lights up the scoreboard, he's not going anywhere....

There are 6 games left for Keenum to prove his worth. A lot can happen between now and then. Who knows, if the Texans win 6 or 7 games, McNair might point to the injuries as the reason for the poor season and Kubes stays.

Like I've said, this discussion can be better addressed in the offseason....

Joshua 11-20-2013 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arky (Post 36399)
If Keenum has a couple or 3 games where he lights up the scoreboard, he's not going anywhere...

I think that's Barrett's point. If he does that, Kubiak probably stays (I can already hear McNair talking about Kubiak being a QB guru and look at the great strides he made with Case so it only makes sense to keep Kubiak on to continue the grooming process, etc., etc.).

However, the most likely outcome is Kubiak being fired and the Texans having a top 5 pick. So it ultimately boils down to whether the new coach would rather hitch his wagon to Case or one of the QBs thought to potentially go in the top 5 (Mariota, Bridgewater, Hundley, JFF). That's the question. I'd be very surprised if any coach went with Case over one of them.

Arky 11-20-2013 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshua (Post 36400)
I think that's Barrett's point. If he does that, Kubiak probably stays (I can already hear McNair talking about Kubiak being a QB guru and look at the great strides he made with Case so it only makes sense to keep Kubiak on to continue the grooming process, etc., etc.).

However, the most likely outcome is Kubiak being fired and the Texans having a top 5 pick. So it ultimately boils down to whether the new coach would rather hitch his wagon to Case or one of the QBs thought to potentially go in the top 5 (Mariota, Bridgewater, Hundley, JFF). That's the question. I'd be very surprised if any coach went with Case over one of them.

Why? Keenum had a better college career than all those guys....

Joshua 11-20-2013 12:55 PM

Um, because those guys are almost universally thought of as better pro prospects than Keenum based upon the fact that they are, by all accounts, universally thought of as 1st round picks, and Keenum was universally not considered an NFL prospect, as evidenced by him not being drafted at all and being allowed to sit untouched on the practice squad for a year.

And, I suspect you're joking about (a) Keenum having a better college career and (b) that this automatically translates into what they'll be at the next level, so I won't bother.

However, here's an interesting thought experiment. Do you think we could get a top 5 pick for Keenum? The question answers itself, doesn't it? Whoever did that would get crushed. That is the trade you're essentially asking the next coach to make.

Arky 11-20-2013 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshua (Post 36402)
Um, because those guys are almost universally thought of as better pro prospects than Keenum based upon the fact that they are, by all accounts, universally thought of as 1st round picks, and Keenum was universally not considered an NFL prospect, as evidenced by him not being drafted at all and being allowed to sit untouched on the practice squad for a year.

And, I suspect you're joking about (a) Keenum having a better college career and (b) that this automatically translates into what they'll be at the next level, so I won't bother.

However, here's an interesting thought experiment. Do you think we could get a top 5 pick for Keenum? The question answers itself, doesn't it? Whoever did that would get crushed. That is the trade you're essentially asking the next coach to make.

Undrafted guy better than a 1st round pick? Yeah, like that never happens in the NFL... (Hi Arian) :rolleyes:

Statistically, Keenum had a better college career than all those guys. That's. Just. Reality. He was Heisman candidate.... He went undrafted because he was too small by NFL standards and got injured and sucked at the combine... Doesn't mean he's not a baller...

Please join me in watching Keenum for the rest of the year where we may better determine if he's got what it takes.....:) Then, perhaps then we can discuss the merits of each of these can't-miss 1st round franchise QB's.....

Nconroe 11-20-2013 01:41 PM

just to cover this way to much- so Keenum should joint this list - quite a few names one might recognize as good QBs went undrafted, some not.

http://www.footballperspective.com/m...qb-since-2003/

The table below includes all undrafted quarterbacks who started a game during the first season in which they played a game.

Quarterback Year Team Age Record College
Jeff Tuel 2013 BUF 22 0-1 Washington St.
Max Hall 2010 ARI 25 1-2 BYU
Matt Moore 2007 CAR 23 2-1 UCLA; Oregon State
Brock Berlin 2007 STL 26 0-1 Florida; Miami (FL)
Chad Hutchinson 2002 DAL 25 2-7 Stanford
Henry Burris 2002 CHI 27 0-1 Temple
Todd Bouman 2001 MIN 29 1-2 St. Cloud State
Anthony Wright 2000 DAL 24 0-2 South Carolina
Doug Johnson 2000 ATL 23 0-2 Florida
Jake Delhomme 1999 NOR 24 1-1 La-Lafayette
Jeff Garcia 1999 SFO 29 2-8 Gavilan J.C.; San Jose State
Jon Kitna 1997 SEA 25 1-0 Central Washington
Kelly Holcomb 1997 IND 24 0-1 Middle Tennessee State
Jason Garrett 1993 DAL 27 1-0 Princeton; Columbia
Brad Goebel 1991 PHI 24 0-2 Baylor
Erik Kramer 1987 ATL 23 1-1 Pierce J.C. ; North Carolina State
John Fourcade 1987 NOR 27 2-1 Mississippi
Adrian Breen 1987 CIN 22 0-1 Morehead State
Rick Neuheisel 1987 SDG 26 2-0 UCLA
Ken Karcher 1987 DEN 24 2-1 Delgado CC; Notre Dame; Tulane
Todd Hons 1987 DET 26 1-2 El Camino J.C.; Arizona State
Bob Bleier 1987 NWE 23 1-1 Richmond
Mike Hohensee 1987 CHI 26 2-0 Mount San Antonio J.C.; Minnesota
Matt Stevens 1987 KAN 23 0-2 UCLA
Ed Rubbert 1987 WAS 23 3-0 Louisville
Shawn Halloran 1987 STL 23 1-1 Boston College
Jim Crocicchia 1987 NYG 23 0-1 Pennsylvania
Jeff Van Raaphorst 1987 ATL 24 0-1 Arizona State
Scott Tinsley 1987 PHI 28 0-2 USC
Willie Totten 1987 BUF 25 0-1 Mississippi Valley State
Mike Busch 1987 NYG 25 0-1 Idaho State; South Dakota State
Bobby Hebert 1985 NOR 25 2-4 Northwestern State (LA)
Dieter Brock 1985 RAM 34 12-5 Jacksonville State; Auburn
Warren Moon 1984 HOU 28 3-13 Washington
Mike Loyd 1980 STL 24 0-1 Kansas; Tulsa; Missouri Southern State
Joe Pisarcik 1977 NYG 25 4-7 New Mexico State
Terry Luck 1977 CLE 25 0-1 Nebraska
Jim Zorn 1976 SEA 23 2-12 Cal Poly-Pomona
Don Milan 1975 GNB 26 0-1 Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
Will Cureton 1975 CLE 25 0-1 Texas A&M-Commerce
J.J. Jones 1975 NYJ 23 0-1 Fisk
Larry Lawrence 1974 OAK 25 1-0 Iowa; Miami (FL)
Bill Demory 1973 NYJ 23 1-2 Arizona
Rick Arrington 1970 PHI 23 0-1 Georgia; Tulsa
Don Gault 1970 CLE 24 1-0 Hofstra
Sam Wyche 1968 CIN 23 1-2 Furman
Tom Sherman 1968 BOS 23 1-6 Penn State
Kent Nix 1967 PIT 23 3-6 TCU
John Stofa 1966 MIA 24 1-0 Buffalo
Max Choboian 1966 DEN 24 3-4 Oregon; Cal State-Northridge
Tom Kennedy 1966 NYG 27 0-1 Glendale CC (CA); Los Angeles State
Don Breaux 1963 DEN 23 0-2 McNeese State
Sam Etcheverry 1961 STL 31 4-5 Denver
Tom Flores 1960 OAK 23 5-7 Fresno City J.C.; Pacific
Hunter Enis 1960 DTX 24 1-0 TCU
Tom Greene 1960 BOS 22 1-1 Holy Cross

Joshua 11-20-2013 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arky (Post 36403)
Undrafted guy better than a 1st round pick? Yeah, like that never happens in the NFL... (Hi Arian) :rolleyes:

Statistically, Keenum had a better college career than all those guys. That's. Just. Reality. He was Heisman candidate.... He went undrafted because he was too small by NFL standards and got injured and sucked at the combine... Doesn't mean he's not a baller...

Please join me in watching Keenum for the rest of the year where we may better determine if he's got what it takes.....:) Then, perhaps then we can discuss the merits of each of these can't-miss 1st round franchise QB's.....

I know it sounds like I'm beating Case up and that's not my intention. He's played beyond my expectations and seems like a good kid (although kid may not be the right word, he's only 10 days younger than Matt Stafford). I was mainly just agreeing with Barrett that it is highly unlikely that a new coach would roll with Case. Also, I feel like people are already willing to go with the hometown kid as long as he's decent. We've spent the last 8 years spinning our wheels with a "decent" QB. I'm inclined to try and hit a home run. Now, we may strike out doing that, but that's what I would do.

As for an undrafted person outperforming a drafted one, sure it happens. Someone also wins the lottery or comes home from Vegas with more money than they started with. Doesn't mean the odds are good. There is a wikipedia page which lists all the starting QBs in the league. Take a look, the overwhelmingly majority were taken early in the draft. The handful of late round/undrafted starters are not exactly a who's who of guys you would want to build your team around.


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