Of course they are not 'identical', but there is not a better comparison in the league than in the offensive system Denver ran, at least through the recent years when the current Texans head coach was Denver's offensive coordinator. Not to mention the Texans now have Denver's rushing guru, Alex Gibbs, as well. And please, let me stop there in the comparisons between Denver and Denver South or I'll be here all afternoon...

Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey were pretty effective in the offense. Squint a little and you might see some resemblences to Dre and Kevin Walter.

I'm trying not to include the Cutler years as much since he joined after Kubiak hired with the Texans. But the Broncos did employ Brian Griese for several years during that time span under Kubiak. Mediocre table for one? Yes, please.

The Denver comparisons may or may not be relevant, but they offer a window into an alternate view of this offense. Until the day comes when there is no Daniels running routes for the team, evaluating his real effectiveness is a healthy bit of speculation on everyone's behalf, yours and mine both (and Owen's and Rick Smith's...).

It's just the idea of "fit" here that can be frustrating. Of course he is a fit, as Casey and Dreesen might be... they were added to the roster because of the expectations of their fit with the offense. Take a "better" TE like Winslow or Gates or Clark or Cooley or whoever you think is better... would those guys be that much more effective than Daniels in this system? Marginally, maybe, but it's speculation either way, so all we have to go on is what Daniels actually produced, which by his third season has been Pro Bowl-quality receiving stats.

btw, I realize Owen had a few dropsies in 2007, but Daniels had one fumble lost last year, the same as Winslow, Gates and Clark, and one less than Cooley. His new contract would pay him for production in 2009 and beyond mostly based on his 2008 performance and the potential he has based on that.

Keith, I agree with a lot of this. It definitely is speculation what anyone would do. I also agree that statistically we may not get much more out of any other top TE. The only thing I disagree on is that we won't get much less from any other TE not making top money.

I feel like Daniels is a very smart player who takes advantage of LB coverage and picks up lots of catches and first downs in the middle of the field. This is an important contribution and helped make our offense what it was. But when things tightened up on the goalline, he did not have the ability to either create space, or take the ball from the defender.

To me this is what the top 2-3 TEs are paid for. You have a bunch of guys paid similarly who can block a little and catch the football. Daniels should be paid at the top end of that range. Then you have a few guys paid a premium because they make their living catching TDs. Daniels cannot reasonably ask for premium money until he shows he is a redzone threat.

This is more of a general complaint than anything else...and more of an observation really. It's so hard to judge a players effectiveness in a certain situation as a fan because we have no way of knowing how the coaches are using them. Sure, Kubes might call for a pass near the goal line, but Daniels could be the third or fourth option on many of those plays.

I think the goal line problems start and stop with the inability to run the ball in that area of the field. Plain and simple teams weren't scared of our short yardage running game and that lets them get into pass coverage sooner. When your on a short field like that there is much less ground for the defense to cover making it easier to clog up the throwing lanes. Remember none of our WR's were very effective in redzone situations either, including AJ...if they were then we wouldn't have been third in offense, but 17th in scoring (well that plus turnovers). Scoring in the redzone was a team problem.

I haven't watched all the film to say one way or the other whether or not Owen was getting open in those situations so I can't comment on that. I'm just saying that it was a problem for our whole team and without knowing the specifics of the play calls it's hard to say one way or the other if OD was the one failing to get it done. I do know that the redzone is usually a good time to use the TE, and I've wondered why we don't use them more in that situation. Owen could definitely be part of the problem, but I think it's something that goes deeper than just one guy.

Actually, we can say OD is not getting it done. Maybe he doesn't get the opportunities, maybe it's not his fault, but we're not talking about who is to blame for our redzone struggles. We are talking about the fact that you get paid for performance, and OD did not perform in the redzone (even if it wasn't his fault).

I do agree that we can't blame it all on him, as it is definitely a whole team problem. But he is clearly not part of the solution. So, I just don't think we need to pay him like he's a redzone solution.

Fair enough in regards to pay. I don't think that will hold much weight at the bargaining table because his overall numbers were so good. You do have a point though.

I don't think he's being asked to be paid as a red zone solution. He's asked to be paid comparable to what other top TE's are earning. He's clearly has the stats to make that claim even without the big TD numbers.

I think the solution is the running game. I think one area where you can lay some of the blame on Owen is the running game. The TE can be crucial to the running game and blocking isn't his best attribute. I think he's gotten MUCH better in that area, but he will likely never be a dominant run blocker. In that sense Owen is part of the problem...although I would put more of the blame on the interior of the line with Myers and Briesel IMO.

speaking of, I've got really high hopes for Caldwell. I think he's got a chance to give us a little more meat in the short yardage game, while still being able to handle the zone scheme.

I just have a hard time believing that Owen can be a top 5 (top 10 if that makes you happier) TE in the league for over 80 yards, but be a waste of space in the last 20. I would hate for the Texans to sign him to a deal that puts them in a position to not have the opportunity to sign another player later. Being able to make the tough calls on productive players in regards to how much salary is too much is what turns good teams into dynasties. I'm just not confident enough if our front office/coaching staff that we can cast off productive players and consistently find cheaper options who don't cause a drop in production...yet.

I agree that the interior line is most at fault in the redzone. Then probably our RB situation, and OD only after that.

While I still feel I wouldn't pay him huge, this is probably a case of offseason over-analysis as much as anything.

Interesting analysis, Keith. I especially liked the full article treatment on the front-page. I'm not sure I quite ready to agree with it, but it provided good food for thought. And any analysis that actually provokes thought gets a two thumbs up from me :)

My thoughts are that Owen Daniels is a good tight end (maybe even very good) but not elite. Essentially a Todd Heap-type rather than an Antonio Gates - certainly nothing to sneeze at and better than most of the league, but not a scary guy. And I'm not sure whether I would want to allocate significant cap resources to a tight end unless they were all-world (and whomever Daniels signs his next contract with will surely be allocating some serious coinage.) Going back to the table you posted on the front page, I come to a slightly different conclusion about the table you posted.

I'm not so sure that those numbers don't point to a tight-end friendly offense. First off, it should be noted that Desmond Clark was also a significant portion of their offense in 2000 and 2001, putting up 339 and 566 yards respectively in those years. So another version of Denver TE production could be expressed like so:

Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0 + Desmond Clark 27-339-3 = 64-820-3
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6 + Dwayne Carswell 34-299-4 = 85-865-10
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3 + Carswell 21-189-1 = 82-875-4
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8 + Carswell 6-53-1 = 68-823-9
2004* Jeb Putzier 36-572-2 + Carswell 22-198-1 = 58-770-3
2005* Jeb Putzier 37-481-0 + Stephen Alexander 27-170-1 = 64-651-1

*H-Back/FB/TE Kyle Johnson also contributed 9-126-2 in '04 and 17-160-5 in '05, but, as the slashes indicate, considering him just a TE is problematic.

Texans TEs:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5 + Putzier 13-125-0 = 47-477-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3 + Putzier/Dreesen 10-94-3 = 73-862-6
2008 Daniels 70-862-2 + Dreesen 11-77-0 = 81-939-2

There are a few things I take away from this grouping. One is that OD provides the lion's share of the Texans TE production. In contrast, the Denver years have two years with split production and in the other years only once did the 2nd TE fail to pick up 170 yards. My interpretation is that this probably occurred due to a few factors. One, Daniels has been considerably better than our 2nd tight ends and has been durable enough be on the field almost all the time. The blocking TE, Bruener, the Texans have paired Daniels with was also not going to see many throws aimed his way. The other thing I notice from this grouping, though, is that the Broncos combined TE production has been similar to the Texans in the Kubiak offense. The average for the years cited for Denver TE's is 70-801-5; the average for Texans TEs is 67-759-4. If you throw out Owen's rookie year, the Texans averages are 77-900-4.

If you just compare the Bronco's top TE's to OD you get:

Bronco TEs:
2000 Dwayne Carswell 37-481-0
2001 Desmond Clark 51-566-6
2002 Shannon Sharpe 61-686-3
2003 Shannon Sharpe 62-770-8
2004 Jeb Putzier 36-572-2
2005 Jeb Putzier 37-481-0
Average: 47-593-3

Owen Daniels:
2006 Daniels 34-352-5
2007 Daniels 63-768-3
2008 Daniels 70-862-2
OD Avg: 56-661-3

While I think that Denver chart gives a less clear view of Denver's TE dynamic, I think it's interesting because of the players involved. Dwayne Carswell was an oversized blocking TE who would convert to the offensive line late in his career; only 3 times in his career did he exceed 200 yards receiving (the two mentioned, plus one year at 201 yards.) Desmond Clark disappeared after the 2000 and 2001 campaigns, not matching his 2001 timeshare season again until 2006 when he came out of witness protection for Ron Turner's Bears offense. Sharpe, at the end of his career, was able to average 728 yards and 5 TDs at the ages of 34 and 35 in this offense.

The worst two years on the Broncos list belong to Putzier who has only 19 receptions since the 2004-05 campaigns and couldn't even muster a decent timeshare in Houston despite knowing the system. Even Putzier averaged 525 yards in his years as the #1 TE. For a guy whose done nothing since even as he entered what should have been the prime of his career, 525 yards per year makes it seem like you should be able to plug anyone whose hands aren't made of stone into this offense and get a solid level of production.

This isn't to say that Owen hasn't been better than his Denver predecessors. He has been and I think he's been a pretty good receiving weapon for us. But I'm not sure if he's worth paying him the numbers he will likely get when we can likely get decent production for considerably less money. I don't see the production gap as worth the dollar gap and I'd be willing to take my chances with a Dreesen or a Casey if it meant more money freed up to spend on Demeco, Dunta and others down the line. I'm wondering if the Texans might be thinking they might be able to match OD's production with a Casey/Hill pairing that would be similar to the Clark/Carswell grouping that combined to produce OD-like numbers. I think these next 8 months or so will be quite interesting to watch how the front office and coaching staff manage this situation.

I think this is the point where the argument boils down. Yours is an interesting counterpoint, and I think we possibly differ here on something of a philosophical perspective.

Average players are available and come and go. I think it was Charles Barkley who said the NBA was a league of all-stars, i.e. everyone who's good enough to make it can play at a real high level, but not everyone is special and truly capable of separating themselves from the rest of the 'stars'. The NFL is not the NBA, but I think the same perspective is applicable. Premium players are harder to find and they come at a price. Everyone is going to have different thresholds on what to pay.

And where to spend it. Just like with the expansion era Texans when the team had to answer a philosophical question about where to spend their top draft picks, position-wise (yes... if they were really going to go BPA, then they probably would not have forced a QB up their draft board in 2002 for example.) There's the franchise QB, the LT, the pass rusher, the shutdown corner... you have to go really far down that list before you get the seam-busting TE. This where I hesitate to open McNair's wallet ...if I was working under a strict budget.

So, yes, this assumes a sort of zero sum limited capital scenario, or at least one severely stricken by salary cap limits. While this was a concern before 2009, I'm not certain it is as concerning from here forward. The next CBA will have a lot to say here. Teams have more cap room than they need this year (a few are going to struggle to spend to the floor much less the max), and as it looks right now, there won't even be a cap in 2010.

As I said in the extended article (yay! I have the new software!), Daniels' negotiation is surprisingly complex because of these reasons and more. This will be an interesting situation to keep watching for sure.

I took a similar approach with this, looking at top TE salaries in 2008 and top TE stats includingTDs in 2008. I don't know if OD has been offered a fair or long term deal or exactly where he is evaluated, but I think he need to show up for practice.
Salary looks to me like 2.9 isn't too bad for a TE and some good ones make less than that, a few make more,
Skill, is it TDs or yardage or blocking , doesn't seem like that unusually special , but pretty good.

From USA Today salary Database get this
Player Team Base Salary Sign Bonus Other Bonus Total Salary Cap Value
Gonzalez, Tony Chiefs $ 1,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 500,840 $ 1,500,840 $ 5,032,215
Winslow, Kellen Browns $ 4,000,000 $ 0 $ 1,607,500 $ 5,607,500 $ 4,599,584
Smith, L.J. Eagles $ 4,022,000 $ 0 $ 1,320 $ 4,023,320 $ 4,523,320
Gates, Antonio Chargers $ 3,000,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 840 $ 3,000,840 $ 4,200,840
Graham, Daniel Broncos $ 700,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 900,000 $ 4,150,000
Witten, Jason Cowboys $ 1,905,000 $ 6,000,000 $ 5,760 $ 1,910,760 $ 4,110,760
McMichael, Randy Rams $ 2,900,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 1,440 $ 2,901,440 $ 3,901,440
Kleinsasser, Jim Vikings $ 2,400,000 $ 0 $ 600,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 3,850,000
Heap, Todd Ravens $ 730,000 $ 2,270,000 $ 4,680 $ 3,004,680 $ 3,502,180
Davis, Vernon 49ers $ 900,000 $ 0 $ 3,775,000 $ 4,675,000 $ 3,340,000
Shiancoe, Odai Vikings $ 2,100,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 300,000 $ 2,400,000 $ 3,200,000
Kelly, Reggie Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 200,000 $ 2,200,000 $ 3,200,000
Miller, Zach Raiders $ 370,000 $ 965,000 $ 5,174,880 $ 5,544,880 $ 3,139,130
Cooley, Chris Redskins $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 90,000 $ 11,695,000 $ 3,028,333
Lee, Donald Packers $ 1,600,000 $ 0 $ 1,366,720 $ 2,966,720 $ 2,881,720
Utecht, Ben Bengals $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 5,040 $ 4,005,040 $ 2,671,706
Clark, Dallas Colts $ 605,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 45,000 $ 11,650,000 $ 2,483,333
Shockey, Jeremy Saints $ 1,925,000 $ 3,000,000 $ 500,000 $ 2,425,000 $ 2,425,000
Clark, Desmond Bears $ 1,000,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 3,506,720 $ 2,340,056
Royal, Robert Bills $ 1,675,000 $ 2,500,000 $ 152,160 $ 1,827,160 $ 2,327,160
Campbell, Dan Lions $ 1,800,000 $ 0 $ 75,000 $ 1,875,000 $ 2,315,000
Crumpler, Alge Titans $ 1,200,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 506,720 $ 2,706,720 $ 2,056,720

Is Gonzales the top TE, hear are his stats to compare, so OD is not Gonzales. More yards and lots more TD's.

GONZALEZ’S NFL STATISTICS
RECEIVING
Year Team G-S No. Yds. Avg. LG TD
1997 Kansas City 16-0 33 368 11.2 30 2
1998 Kansas City 16-16 59 621 10.5 32 2
1999 Kansas City 15-15 76 849 11.2 73 11
2000 Kansas City 16-16 93 1,203 12.9 39 9
2001 Kansas City 16-16 73 917 12.8 36 6
2002 Kansas City 16-16 63 773 12.3 42 7
2003 Kansas City 16-16 71 916 12.9 67 10
2004 Kansas City 16-16 102 1,258 12.3 32 7
Totals 127-111 570 6,905 12.1 73 54

TE in 2008 stats - from ESPN receiver ranking
RNK NAME REC YDS AVG YPG LNG TD FUM LST
12 Tony Gonzalez TE, KAN 96 1058 11.0 66.1 35 10 0 0
25 Jason Witten TE, DAL 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 0 0
32 Owen Daniels TE, HOU 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 2 1
35 Chris Cooley TE, WAS 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 3 2
36 Dallas Clark TE, IND 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 2 1

and TE ranking from nfl.com for 2008,
Rk Player Team Pos Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st 1st% FUM
1 Tony Gonzalez KC TE 96 1,058 11.0 66.1 35 10 10 0 67 69.8 0
2 Chris Cooley WAS TE 83 849 10.2 53.1 28 1 7 0 43 51.8 3
3 Jason Witten DAL TE 81 952 11.8 59.5 42 4 14 1 50 61.7 0
4 Dallas Clark IND TE 77 848 11.0 56.5 33 6 13 0 41 53.2 2
5 Owen Daniels HOU TE 70 862 12.3 53.9 35 2 10 0 46 65.7 2
6 Antonio Gates SD TE 60 704 11.7 44.0 34 8 8 0 39 65.0 1
7 Bo Scaife TEN TE 58 561 9.7 35.1 44 2 4 1 29 50.0 1
8 Zach Miller OAK TE 56 778 13.9 48.6 63T 1 16 1 32 57.1 0
9 John Carlson SEA TE 55 627 11.4 39.2 33 5 10 0 36 65.5 0
10 Greg Olsen CHI TE 54 574 10.6 35.9 52 5 6 1 31 57.4 2
11 Jeremy Shockey NO TE 50 483 9.7 40.2 26 0 4 0 30 60.0 2
12 Dustin Keller NYJ TE 48 535 11.1 33.4 54 3 7 1 32 66.7 0
12 Heath Miller PIT TE 48 514 10.7 36.7 22 3 4 0 29 60.4 1
14 Billy Miller NO TE 45 579 12.9 38.6 41 1 11 1 30 66.7 0
15 Kellen Winslow CLE TE 43 428 10.0 42.8 30 3 3 0 25 58.1 1
16 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN TE 42 596 14.2 37.2 40 7 12 1 30 71.4 0
17 Desmond Clark CHI TE 41 367 9.0 22.9 35 1 5 0 18 43.9 1

and then ODs stats from nfl.com
Season Team Receiving Rushing Fumbles
G GS Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Att Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost
2008 Houston Texans 16 16 70 862 12.3 35 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2 1
2007 Houston Texans 16 16 63 768 12.2 29 3 -- -- -- -- -- 4 3
2006 Houston Texans 14 12 34 352 10.4 33T 5 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
TOTAL 167 1,982 11.9 35 10 0 0 0.0 0 0 6 4


Overall, sure be fair and be realistic, OD, you have good competition to make the team now.

When I was writing that sentence, that popped into my head and I thought about tossing in a qualifier. But, honestly, I would be surprised (not to mention very disappointed) if there was no labor agreement before the start of the off-season. The biggest problem I foresee is that the owners have more leverage (the severe restrictions on player movement and lack of a salary floor in uncapped year) but the NFLPA has a new boss and Demaurice Smith probably doesn't want to start his career being known as the guy who gave up what they got in Gene Upshaw's final negotiations (which turned out to be a windfall as he played big owners against small owners instead of against him). That worries me a little. But there's too much for both sides to lose here. So I'm keeping my fingers crossed hoping for a painless resolution even though a protracted struggle with an uncapped 2010 might benefit my team.

'twas interesting.

dadmg,

not to take from the conversation here, but my understanding is that there is more of a rift between the owners and profit sharing than there is with the NFLPA and the owners. I understnad that some teams couldnt come close to the cap without the CBA and why it crosses into both realms, and I understand why they cant negotiate them seperatly at this point because of revenue, but it would be nice if we had a new agreement in place with no uncapped year, and a rookie payscale.

I dont see how the rich owners dont understand that their salaries will be more than they pay in revenue sharing now if they dont agree. Football works because of the sharing, FA, and cap which gives it more parity.

Sorry, I was a bit confusing there. The rift was/is between the owners, but I've read a few articles that said Upshaw did a good job during the last round of negotiations to keep the focus on the owners rift between each other to make it more difficult for them to present a united front and bargain better against the players, which may have been how the players came away like bandits in that last round of CBA negotiations.

In Daniels credit, I think we may be over analyzing the stats. Stats tell you a lot about your offenses scheme and offensive coaches/players success on a fairly high level. But, when you look at the TE position you have to take into account that their skills are much more about quality rather than quantity.

To put it simply, would you throw to Owen when it's 4th and 7, with the game on the line. I'd say yes, and I think Daniels has made a pretty strong case. The guy catches everything thrown his way. Dressen could probably put up %70 of Daniels numbers at %10 of the cost, but the critical game moments is when a TE earns his money.

That being said, I'll pay Daniels the top 3-4 TE money just for those critical game moments.

[Royal We Texans Off]

Isn't the goalline where a TE has most of their "critical" moments? If so I can't see paying OD huge money.

My problem is I don't see OD as one of our most important players and I think if you pay him big (even in an uncapped situation), than you end up with a dozen other guys wanting big paydays.

Just among our skill position guys OD is the #4 option. How many #4 options see big paydays?

This is exactly how I see the situation. I think OD's yardage total is highly misleading in relation to his true value. I hear people like Lance Zurlein saying ''well you have to pay him what he wants anyway because those are his numbers.'' I say no you don't.

I say if you want to run a top-notch organization you don't overpay anybody if you don't have to. Personally, I will lose some respect for Rick Smith if he caves in to OD's demands. Because both Smith and Kubiak know he's not worth what he's asking for.

For me, the real question is where do you put the premium (long term, high dollar contracts) when the team starts winning? We all assume, hopefully so, that it will begin this upcoming season. So, everyone participating is going to want to get paid the big bucks and there isn't going to be enough to go around. Even in an uncapped year, there is going to be a threshold of available monies just like there will be a threshold regarding fans paying escalated ticket prices, buying expensive gear and etc.

Yah, we want the guys who were on the bus while making the trip to get paid. But, I'd rather see the bus keep on rolling than be stopped for lack of gas money.

#4 option? who are the three people you have in front of him?

AJ most certainly.

I am assuming you are including Slayton in there. He definitely had a great rookie year, but he needs to show he can continue that. Also, I guess what number slayton is depends on the situation. 3rd and 1, i got no problem saying he is top 2 options, 3rd and 7? not so sure.

You could go with walter, but i think daniels is a better option than him, and at no worse even with him.

also you have to think about positions when you make these decisions. if daniels is as good as your #2 wide receiver then he is worth much, much more than that #2. Given our scheme, daniels is often going to get matched up with a line backer since he is a tight end, which means there will often be a mismatch, you have to take that into account, and if they put a db on him, that opens up other options for the offense that wouldnt normally be there. again though, please list the three guys you have ahead of daniels. (schaub does not count)

The three that you easily came up with. AJ is clearly our #1 offensive option. Everything revolves around him and the way that defenses must account for him.

Slaton is clearly #2. He was a big threat in both the passing and running game. He totalled over 1650 yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs.

Walter is a notch above Daniels as well. He went for 900 yards and 8 TDs. He is reliable over the middle, on the out route, and stretches the field. Most of the time you get one of the three with a second receiver. He did them all, and he is a great blocker. Honestly he is a better run blocker than OD.

Daniels has really good numbers for a TE, but he is still the #4 option for the Texans. He is a very smart player. He is great at adjusting his routes to give Schaub an outlet against the blitz. He shows great patience getting off of the line and into his routes and avoids safety coverage by doing this (that's why he runs the backside screen so well). He's a great fit here. He is honestly one of my favorite Texans. I hope we retain him. I just don't know of many teams paying option 4 huge money.

But I will admit that I looked at the other TE contracts around the league and they have leaped up the last few years with guys like Dallas Clark getting rich and even Chris Cooley cashing in. So he is honestly not being unreasonable.

So I hope OD gets his and it doesn't keep us from keeping everyone else we need to keep (because their are probably a dozen guys I think are more important to retain).

I'm not disagreeing entirely with you, as I think you're pretty much correct, save a bit of the walter argument. While the numbers don't lie, and his TD numbers were better than Daniels, what? 4 times over? But I think you underestimate his value as a security blanket, especially given how small slaton is. You really don't want slaton having to catch too many balls with his back to the defense in the middle of the field. Daniels does a great job as an outlet, which further increases his value. a reliable guy that can play in the seams and stretch the field from the TE position is not that easily found. As a reliable outlet in the flats, he saves wear on the only solid back on this roster, and allows Matt to stay in a rhythm by completing passes rather than eating sacks or chucking it out of bounds. The fact of the matter is that Daniels is easily one of the best TE's in football, and when guys like LJ Smith and Jim Kleinsasser are nearly lapping him in terms of cap numbers, the dude is owed a raise. period.

Also, you say that Walter is a much better run blocker than daniels, but look at who he's blocking. Daniels is up against strong side defensive ends and linebackers, while walter is blocking #2 CB's. when there's an 80 lb difference between the defenders in question, that argument doesn't really hold water. Besides, Daniels is an adequate, willing run blocker, so I don't see that as much of an issue.

I agree with you here that he deserves a raise. I balk at how much out of gut reaction, but with my last post I went and looked at TE salaries and saw I was wrong about where they are at. It appears OD is not being unreasonable, and I hope he gets paid commensurate for what he does.

But I disagree regarding the blocking. Walter is often cracking in our run game and I have seen him stone LBs and be a willing speed bump for DL. OD on the other hand is often put in motion in the run game and is matched up heads up very rarely with a LB on the play side in our offense. Walter is a great run blocker and is far more eager for contact than daniels. But OD is a pass catching TE who is split off the line regularly so I have no problem with him not being a 6th OL in the run game. Honestly he 'blocks' more effectively by being a good receiver, spreading the field, and not tipping run or pass by being on the field than he does by actually blocking. But either way, I think Walter is a better option in the offense, and a very complete player. There are not many better WR2s in the NFL. Walter for a 7th rounder was probably our best trade ever.

Getting Walter was a brilliant move. I know he plays opposite Andre Johnson, but if you look back before he got here everyone was screaming that we needed a legitimate #2 to take some pressure off of Dre. Now that he's done that no one wants to give him credit for being a good WR (I'm not even going to put the #2 label on that). I'm not saying that playing alongside Dre doesn't help a ton, it does, but if it was so easy to operate across from Dre then why were our other receivers so bad before...besides the person throwing to them.

As far as blocking goes. Walter probably ranks higher as a blocker among WR's than Daniels does among TE's. I don't know that I would rate Walter as a better blocker straight up against OD though. OD has gotten much better as a blocker since he's been here, and I don't see any reason why his technique won't continue to improve.

I think Walter is clearly more valuable to the Texans than Daniels. I think the offense itself is what makes Owen's stats look so good. I have the feeling that if HWSRN were still here, Owen's stats would be so much lower that he would probably be asking for less than 3 million and hoping like hell he could get it.

I think it is a mistake to look at what other TEs are getting. To me, Daniels is much more replacable than Schaub, Slaton, Andre Johnson, or Walters. In fact, we may already have his replacement on the team, at a HUGE savings over what Daniels is asking. In fact, if we would receive the compensation in talent that a "top five" tight end is supposedly worth, I would trade Owen in a heartbeat and take my chances with what we have now. It seems to me we could get a top notch DT or a top notch SS for what Daniels is asking.

Is the offense the reason for it, or did Kubiak intentionally give the TE's bigger role as he began to see what a good one he had. Chicken or the egg thing, and there's no way to prove ones right and ones wrong really. Coaches have a system, but the details of the system change week to week. Kubiak wants to run the ball, but we weren't that succesfull with that until the line got together and we got a better running back...in what was supposed to be a "plug and play" offense for RB's that could succeed with low round talent.

It could be a mistake to pay what other TE's are getting, but Daniels has every rite to ask for similar amounts. That's how the majority of contracts are determined in the NFL. Winslow and Clark have set the bar so to speak, whether we like it or not. If Owen was an older player I would probably be willing to drive him to the airport myself.

Daniels likely is more replaceable than those guys, but that's a risky game to play; especially when a player is entering the prime of his career. No matter how much we like a rookie, it's always a crap shoot. Just because we had success with one late round TE doesn't mean we will with another. The Casey hype is getting a little out of hand IMO. I'm intrigued by him, and it's a great story because he's local. I hope he finds a place on the team and is very successful. The idea that a fifth round pick is going to come in and immediately replace 70 catches and 800+ yards is silly to me. It could happen, but that's something you can't depend on. I'm sure we would be just fine without Owen, but one other thing to remember is that Owen has worked hard at his blcoking since coming into the NFL to get where he's at now....which is only average at best. Casey has just as much, if not more, work to do in that department. If Casey was the starter we would likely revert to the days when the defense can tell what play we were running by which TE was in the game for a while.


No way you get a top flight DT. Those are way to rare in today's NFL. At this point ANY trade is very unlikely. If it was going to happen it would have happened at the draft. The only likely scenarios at this point are that we either agree to a long term deal with him, or he plays under the one year tender and we do it all over again next year...as either a RFA or FA depending on if there's a new CBA. If he's a FA next year then I would guess the chances of him being a Texan are very low.

Barrett, I don't think I could agree with you more about the KW acquisition. Kevin Walter for a 7th round pick was on the same level as Luis Scola for Visilis Spinoulis. You're absolutely right. Walter is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Just last night, as a matter of fact, I was having a discussion with a dude at the bar about this very subject, and then the passing game as a whole. He was saying that Kevin Walter sucks, that he shows up for 3 games a year, and is useless the rest of the time. Then I spouted off his numbers. "Damn, that good, huh?" And I told him to name me 5 #2 WR's better than him, and he couldn't get past anquan boldin and wes welker.

PB, You said exactly what I was trying to say about OD/KW's blocking.

BTL, Yes, with a crappy quarterback, OD's numbers would be far less, but so would KW's and Slaton's. Dre's gonna get his anyway. The way I see it, the only serious deficiency that OD has is that he doesn't catch TD's, while KW does. Let's take a moment to consider something. Now I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, so I don't know how many of KW's td's were from 20 yds and out, but I think it's pretty safe to say that he scored most often from inside the red zone, yeah? The TE is traditionally a much bigger target in the red zone, and when you have a good one, he must be accounted for by the defense. Now you've got one of the 2 best receivers in football on one side, and a top tier TE in the red zone. Those are two guys that will definitely be accounted for. Perhaps Walter is able to get open a little more often in the end zone because he's the guy the other team decided was going to be the one that beat them, if he could do it. You pick your poison, and it's not unreasonable to think that perhaps, in the red zone, teams pick Walter

Walter's 8 TDs were 14, 5, 8, 7, 39, 60, 17, and 58.

So he found the endzone from all over the field and had a number of long catches on the year in addition to the TDs. Walter benefits from the overall offensive talent and beats man coverage just like Daniels benefits from the overall offensive talent and beats man coverage. But in the Redzone, OD has little to do with Walter's performance. Teams are not shading goalline coverage towards a guy who does not catch TDs. Rather I think both guys benefit hugely from AJ and Walter just does a better job of cashing in in the redzone.

Either way I think Daniels is more "replacable", but I sincerely hope we don't have to replace any positive working part on our roster unless we are getting back a haul in return.

We aren't going to change anyone's mind here, but I couldn't disagree more. Daniels is a tight end with wr hands and playmaking ability. In my opinion, that is much more valuable than you are giving it credit for. Teams have to scheme for Daniels because he is such a good player AT HIS POSITION. Week in and week out most teams don't have to worry about having a tight end on the opposing team with OD's skill set, therefore when they are getting ready to play the texans, they have to take that into account and plan ways to try to neutralize him. When you add that to the fact that AJ is one of the 2 best WRs in the league, it is going to give defenses fits, and allows for Walter, who is a top notch #2 to take advantage of the situation (which he does). Having to account for OD's skill sets also likely helps the run game as well, as teams have to put a guy in coverage they might normally leave in the box.

You can't really think that you could take OD out, put a rookie or another unproven player in, and it wouldn't have a negative effect on this offense.

On the whole TD thing. I don't think you can say that a player isn't effective in goal line situations unless you can point to something tangible as to why. Without going back and looking at the tape it's hard for me to say. Maybe Daniels was open, but was often option 3 or 4 and the progression never got to him. Maybe he just couldn't get open. I think our problems in the redzone/goaline were a product of not running the ball well in those situations.

Andre Johnson TD's by year:
4
6
2
5
8
8

OD

5
3
2

You can see the improvement with Dre over the last few years, but even his TD numbers aren't as dominant the rest of his passing statistics. At least a handful of those came from farther out than the redzone too. No one would make an argument that Dre isn't as affective weapon in the red zone. My point is we just aren't that good down there, so I view it more of an incomplete grade than an actual limitation to his game.

I don't think we're at the point of our existence where we can say one player is replacable. Our biggest problem is consistency, and keeping a team together is the key to developing that consistency. Owen is much more, but at the very least, he's crucial security blanket for Schaub.

Gotta keep him.

I didn't say you could put a rookie in and not be hurt. I said I hope we don't have to replace any positive working part. We would take a hit by taking OD out of the lineup. How big is debatable, but whether we would take one is not.

Owen Daniels was on ESPN's First Take earlier today.

On his contract talks:
"...kinda still a little disappointed in the way things are going. Hopefully we can get something done before camp.

Houston is the place I want to be. I love playing for Coach Kubiak. I love the fans there. I love all my teammates. ..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oprH1bOTyn0

This has got to make Rick Smith cringed a little.....

From PFT:
Steelers tight end Heath Miller, who would have been a restricted free agent in March 2010 absent a new labor deal, nevertheless reeled in a six-year, $35.3 million deal prior to the final year of his rookie contract.

But only about 12.5 million is guaranteed, according to what I've seen. I would think the Texans would do a deal like that.

And OD was at training camp this morning. that's good.

chron tweet:
I'm guessing the team has been busy on getting Barwin and Cushing inked this week. Daniels (and Ryans for that matter) are already under contract and obligated to attend unless they want to pay fines.

12.5 Million is very reasonable, comparitively speaking which is relevant to say the least. And TB gave Winslow 19-20 million guaranteed right ? This
deal makes Winslows deal look even sillier now.
I mean I realize that the guaranteed money isn't the only significant term of the contract, but it's probably the single most important ?

Could it be possible that they are delaying OD to see what Casey has to offer? I mean, they can't pay everyone top dollar, there has to be a line drawn somewhere. I am an OD fan, and hope he stays, but the reality is they have some big time contracts/bonuses coming due, and they are going to have to make some pretty tough decisions.

CBA resolution or not, even if the cap leaves for a season, there will be a cap again. I would imagine that most teams will operate in the same manner as if there is a cap, or even a little more frugal, and not too get too crazy if there ends up being a single uncapped year.

Lance Z. has captured some of the Daniels soundbites from after practice this morning.

http://blogs.chron.com/fantasyfootba.../post_110.html

OD just needs to be patient awhile longer. The Texans have to get all the draft picks signed and in to TC before they can begin to address Daniels and Robinson, IMOG.

Rick Smith's comments:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...t/6556278.html

I wonder if the Texans' haven't decided to go with a Lightening-Thunder combination after viewing film, or maybe the idea came from Alex Gibbs. That concept explains the drafting of James Casey and Antonio Hill, and maybe the reluctance to sign Daniels.

Let Daniels play while the new guys learn, and shift to the L/T scheme fully next year, and netting some cap savings.