I wouldn't have to swallow too hard to take the Falcon's offer. I would have to say, I'm thinking Bortles is going to be the pick.

1-6: QB Blake Bortles
2-1: OL Xavier Su'a-Filo
2-5: LB Dee Ford
3-1: DE Kareem Martin
3-4: RB Bishop Sankey (Tre Mason went undrafted?)
4-1: WR Martavis Bryant
4-3: LB Jordan Tripp
5-1: DT Caraun Reid
6-1: CB Phillip Gaines
7-1: LB Avery Williamson

McCaron & Garoppolo were much lower than I anticipated

We'll probably get a couple Comp picks for Barwin and Quinn. I would assume 5th rounders.

Depends on how much the Ed Reed signing offset that.

IIRC, the formula is based on money spent, not impact.

This site predicts that they'll get two 5th rounders.

According to the rules provided on that site, I don't think Reed counts against them because he was (I think) released before the midseason point.

Besides Reed, they signed Greg Jones and Shane Lechler, and lost Quin, Barwin, James Casey, Donnie Jones, Alan Ball, Justin Forsett, and James Casey. They released Kevin Walter so he doesn't count as a loss.

If that projection is right, we would get the last comp pick in the fifth, the first pick in the sixth and the fifth pick in the sixth (Raiders for Schaub). Teams cannot trade comp picks but they could easily pair the two sixths to move up to the lower fourth and still have those comp picks to make up for the ones they traded away.

Comp picks received a 4th, 6th, and 7th (Mr. Irrelevant).

So, the Texans get the 4th (135th overall), 6th (211th overall) and 7th (256th) and currently at total of 11 picks. should be fun to see how that plays out.

And saw a rumor Texans might be trading Yates and Keenum, why not at this point.

I would think the Ravens and Kubiak might have some interest in a Flacco back-up who already knows the offense. Maybe a 6th round pick?

Similarly Cleveland might have QB interest since Kyle Shanahan coaches there.

Good point. I would take Cleveland's 6th round pick for TJ Yates.

03-30-2014 "The Aggie Draft"
 

Optimum Scouting isn't as high on a few Aggies as some others are and that allowed me to trade down with the Falcons (for 1-6, 2-5 and 3-4) to get all of them and then basically load my shopping cart with a lot of great talent:

1-6: (from ATL) Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
2-1: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
2-5: (from ATL) Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
3-1: Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida St. (he's been ranked as high as a mid-first - a real beast in the middle with questionable stamina)
3-4: (from ATL) Cyril Richardson, G, Baylor (seems like Rick Smith has been failing with 3rd round fixes to the OL but this guy was ranked as a low first before the combine. Plus, we have two holes at guard to fill without Wade Smith.)
4-1: Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
4-35 (comp): Jackson Jeffcoat, DE-OLB, Texas

I'm still seeing some guys I like but there's only one spot in the fifth so I packaged our Schaub pick (6-5) with our seventh (7-1) to Philadelphia for their fifth (5-22).

5-1: Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor
5-22: (from PHI) Marcus Roberson, CB, Florida (He was ranked as a low first by some but he's slid since the combine and he's a runt but still worth a low fifth)
6-1: Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn
6-35 (comp): Jeff Janis, WR-KR, Saginaw Valley St. (extreme speed guy)
7-41 (comp): Henry Josey, RB, Missouri

No upgrade at TE but I am okay with the two we have and a UDFA.
No upgrade at S but we added two in free agency, otherwise we've shored up seemingly everywhere.

Evans is a luxury but a comfort guy for Manziel and it will make trading Andre Johnson before his balloon payments kick in easier to swallow. With Hopkins, Posey and Martin, we ought to be stacked here. Janis is more for kick returns.

Seastrunk and Josey back up Foster. Both carried the load in college and would probably do fine as reserves.

Richardson and Matthews would make a great combo and I have hope Quessenberry or Brooks will fill the other guard spot.

Jernigan will be a load in the middle but will need frequent breathers (think Doug Smith from the Oilers) Jeffcoat gives us an edge rusher. I always thought he was at his best at UT when he was standing up even though he has DE size. When healthy, he's a size-speed mismatch. Jones also has flexibility as a LB who can be inside or outside although I'd start him inside with Cushing. You already know what I think of Davis and Roberson. Both great low-round gambles.

Then, of course, there's Johnny Football. Love him or hate him, he will keep the Texans on the front pages and either be terrific or a huge bust. Giving him some teammates to ease his transition and putting him in Houston is probably the best chance he could possibly get to be an NFL success and Fitzpatrick will be a good mentor for him. Not taking him until the second will also put a large chip on his shoulder which, if channeled properly, can be a huge edge. Supposedly, being taken in the second is what spurred Thurman Thomas to greatness and might do the same for Manziel.

I applaud your efforts, but I believe the simulation is greatly flawed if you were able to select those players when you did. Evans, Manziel, and Jernigan have to be gone in the first round. But, again I like the trade down if something like that were possible.

All the big boards have some people ranked where I wouldn't but then some players fall in the real draft and we scratch our heads why. Simulating is role playing but at least you can't manipulate them as much as people who do their own cherry-picking.

Plus, we do have the first pick in each round so it is not so absurd that the Texans will pick someone at 2-1 that has a first-round grade, someone at 3-1 that has a third-round grade, etc.

Yeah, I would be shocked to still see Jernigan at 3-1 but I had already mocked this big board enough to know I could do the Aggie hat trick which is why I did it.

You come into a draft with an outline of what you want to do but then you see guys you couldn't imagine fall to you (or see the guy you really wanted get taken ahead of you) so you have to decide whether to deviate from your plan or pass on somebody you know would be a huge get.

That's what makes simming so fun. You're never sure how you'll have to adjust on the fly but it is great practice. Plus, like everyone, there are certain guys I would be thrilled to have in Steel Blue and Battle Red that others would probably pass on.

http://optimumscouting.com/draft/201...ock-draft.html

I'm not certain where you saw the mock draft that you utilized. I went to the above web site and only saw the first round.

Mike Evans is off the board at #8 to Minnesota, Johnny Manziel at #26 to Cleveland.

http://optimumscouting.com/draft/sta...th-update.html

Timmy Jernigan was not listed in the first round, but according to their 'Big Board' they have him ranked #37.

Not wanting to start an argument or anything. You know I like to use my Draft Board against mocks to see how I stack up. So, if I'm on the wrong site, please post the correct site so I can take a look, please.

No argument needed.

Here's the site I am drafting from:

http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/premium.php

I am sure they have some variability factors involved so players do not go off the board exactly as ranked. Besides, guys like Mel Kiper, Jr. routinely change their boards for no other reason than to drive more traffic. A lot of it is just a scam. However, if you'd like, you can start with the Fanspeak board they list and then re-rank them yourself if you think they are rating guys ridiculously high or low.

I prefer not to do that but if you buy the premium for $5, you can probably set up the board the way you think it should be and then simulate.

Wanted to 'test' the system before paying for it. The free Mock Draft didn't allow for trading. Now that I've played with it, I may make the purchase. Cheap entertainment for a draft nerd like me. :)

I accidentally selected Mack with my first pick instead of Greg Robinson. But, just went with it to see what would happen. Can't say that I'm too upset with my results:


1 OLB KHALIL MACK BUFFALO
-Mayock has him as his top pick

33 G XAVIER SU'A-FILO UCLA
-Didn't expect him in the 2nd. Played LT and could play RT

65 QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO EASTERN ILLINOIS
-Got my QB in the 3rd round. ECSTATIC!

101 TE C.J. FIEDOROWICZ IOWA
-I think he has better hands than Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and can block

135 DT CARAUN REID PRINCETON
-Really impressed me at the Senior Bowl

141 RB JERICK MCKINNON GEORGIA SOUTHERN
-Super quick, decent hands to catch passes, kick returner

177 WR KEVIN NORWOOD ALABAMA
-Don't understand why he doesn't get more love. Has RAC skills and finds TDs

181 G TRAI TURNER LSU
-The guy can start at LG

211 ILB AVERY WILLIAMSON KENTUCKY
-He makes tackles and has speed to go sideline to sideline.

216 CB AARON COLVIN OKLAHOMA
-Injured at Senior Bowl may have to redshirt and heal. Talented player.

256 OLB HOWARD JONES SHEPHERD
-Special teams tackling as a rookie and pass-rush specialist

Okay, I paid and started trading. First, I traded down with TB and got #7 with a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th. Traded that 2nd (#6) for #15 in the 2nd and a 4th and 5th. Then traded #5 in the Third round for 3.10 and a 5th. Lots of fun, but weren't able to get a lot of My Guys and took BPA.

7 QB BLAKE BORTLES UCF
-Didn't feel bad getting my top QB after trading down

33 DE TRENT MURPHY STANFORD
-Love his game. Will have him play OLB

47 DE KAREEM MARTIN NORTH CAROLINA
-Has size and speed. My prototypical DE for the 3-4

65 WR DONTE MONCRIEF OLE MISS
-Call me crazy, I believe he's better than DeAndre Hopkins.

74 RB BISHOP SANKEY WASHINGTON
-Think Giovanni Bernard

101 WR BRUCE ELLINGTON SOUTH CAROLINA
-My KR Specialist/Slot WR....Randall Cobb clone.

119 DT ANTHONY JOHNSON LSU
-Will play the NT for my 3-4

135 TE ARTHUR LYNCH GEORGIA
-Red Zone Tgt and blocks. Plus I love my Bulldogs. :)

141 OLB CHRISTIAN KIRKSEY IOWA
-Ferentz loves him. Will put him at ILB beside Cushing

143 TE CROCKETT GILMORE COLORADO STATE
-Impressed me at The Senior Bowl. Paired with Lynch & Moncrief = Red Zone

152 OT JAMES HURST NORTH CAROLINA
-Noticed I needed to address the RT hole and he was the BPA

158 G DAKOTA DOZIER FURMAN
-Grabbed the BPA to play Guard

177 CB DONTAE JOHNSON NC STATE
-Can play FS too. Has size 6'2" 200 and speed 4.45 - Forty

181 CB ROSS COCKRELL DUKE
-Another 'Big CB'

211 OLB PRINCE SHEMBO NOTRE DAME
-Versatile enough to move to ILB or put hand in dirt like Brooks Reed

216 WR T.J. JONES NOTRE DAME
-Not many guys I liked left. BPA in the 7th round

256 OLB HOWARD JONES SHEPARD
-Can't get over his Combine numbers. Happy to bring him on board.

I imagine if you trade down enough you can wind up with the entire sixth round. :D

It dawned on me that while they claim to update their own Big Board twice a week, it doesn't mean they'll ever update the other two Big Boards. I guess it depends on what type of contract they signed.

To me, that's the whole point. When you simulate with an unknown board that seems to fluctuate quite a bit, you may target guys but you don't get them as often as you'd think. The Texans have the luxury this year to have the first pick in every round and three comp picks to boot (which you cannot trade) so we can do a lot in this draft most other teams cannot and, even then, most of the guys we covet will be taken by somebody else.

BTW, Congrats on snagging Garrapolo in the 3rd.

I could live with this using Waltersfootball as my bigboard and making some trades:

6 OT GREG ROBINSON AUBURN

37 OT JOEL BITONIO NEVADA

40 QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO EASTERN ILLINOIS

65 DE TRENT MURPHY STANFORD

68 DE KAREEM MARTIN NORTH CAROLINA

96 RB BISHOP SANKEY WASHINGTON

101 WR BRUCE ELLINGTON SOUTH CAROLINA

103 C WESTON RICHBURG COLORADO STATE

135 DT CARAUN REID PRINCETON

141 CB PHILLIP GAINES RICE

177 TE CROCKETT GILMORE COLORADO STATE

181 CB DONTAE JOHNSON NORTH CAROLINA STATE

211 S MARQUESTON HUFF WYOMING

216 ILB AVERY WILLIAMSON KENTUCKY

256 WR KEVIN NORWOOD ALABAMA

10 April
 

The more things change....the more they stay the same.


6 OT GREG ROBINSON AUBURN
-My top guy and was able to garner more picks in the process

33 G XAVIER SU’A-FILO UCLA
-The O-Line should be set for whoever the QB is going to be

43 QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO EASTERN ILLINOIS
-Looks like I could have waited and gotten McCarron/Mettenberger combo late

65 DE TRENT MURPHY STANFORD
-Will play OLB like Vrabel

75 CB STANLEY JEAN- BAPTISTE NEBRASKA
-Decided to get a big CB

101 RB BISHOP SANKEY WASHINGTON
-I know we signed Andre Brown, but I still like this kid

103 QB ZACH METTENBERGER LSU
-New addition to my draftboard. Getting a lot of hype late after Pro-Day

113 TE C.J. FIEDOROWICZ IOWA
-Wanted a TE

135 WR BRUCE ELLINGTON SOUTH CAROLINA
-My KR specialist

141 DT CARAUN REID PRINCETON
-Will really be surprised if he lasts this long

153 CB DONTAE JOHNSON NORTH CAROLINA STATE
-Loading up on big CB/S Hybrids

177 TE CROCKETT GILMORE COLORADO STATE
-Got two TEs :)

181 ILB AVERY WILLIAMSON KENTUCKY
-Had to get a ILB and this guy is great value

211 S MARQUESTON HUFF WYOMING
-Another CB/S Hybrid

216 RB JERICK MCKINNON GEORGIA SOUTHERN
-Already drafted Sankey & Ellington, but he's too good to pass up here

256 WR KEVIN NORWOOD ALABAMA
-Could be the next M. Colsten (7th round value)

Bpa
 

Okay...didn't panic and draft Garrappolo but got two QBs late. Waited for my Favorites like Murphy, Tripp, Sankey, until I couldn't wait any longer. I know we have signed FAs, but couldn't resist taking Bucannon. Very happy with my OLine and DLine.

7 OT GREG ROBINSON AUBURN

33 OT JOEL BITONIO NEVADA

47 S DEONE BUCANNON WASHINGTON STATE

65 DE TRENT MURPHY STANFORD

77 OLB JORDAN TRIPP MONTANA

101 RB BISHOP SANKEY WASHINGTON

111 QB ZACH METTENBERGER LSU

135 DE KAREEM MARTIN NORTH CAROLINA

141 QB A.J. MCCARRON ALABAMA

158 TE CROCKETT GILMORE COLORADO STATE

170 CB DONTAE JOHNSON NORTH CAROLINA STATE

177 RB JERICK MCKINNON GEORGIA SOUTHERN

181 S MARQUESTON HUFF WYOMING

211 ILB AVERY WILLIAMSON KENTUCKY

229 DT ZACK KERR DELAWARE

256 WR KEVIN NORWOOD ALABAMA

Two Mocks and offensive line choices with the first 2 picks in each one. You are for sure gonna get that OLine fixed aren't you Roy ?

4-13-2014 "Clowney" draft
 

I took Clowney at 1-1 rather than the big trade down but did work a lesser trade down later.

In this mock, Bortles and Carr went early so Bridgewater and Manziel fell. The Browns snatched Bridgewater at #26 which let Manziel fall out of the first round. Here's where I made my deal. I offered Cleveland 2-3 and 3-19 for 2-1, 4-1 and 6-5 (the Schaub pick) so I could have an extra second day choice.

I knew the Browns and Redskins would pass on a quarterback so I still got Manziel with a marginal trade down:

1-1 Jadeveon Clowney DE-OLB, S. Carolina
2-3 (from CLE) Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
3-1 Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
3-19 (from CLE) Antonio Richardson, OT, Tennessee
4-35 (comp) Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington
5-1 Jon Halapio, OG, Florida
6-1 Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn
6-35 (comp) Isaiah Lewis, SS, Michigan St.
7-1 Kerry Hyder, DE-DT, Texas Tech
7-41 (comp) Carrington Byndum, CB, Texas

Got the best player in the draft, added the QB many of the locals wanted, added an ILB to team with Cushing, a RB who can spell Foster, two new pieces for the right side of the line, a tweener for the d-line and secondary/ST help. Did all of this without sacrificing the 1-1 pick.

Incidentally, Garropolo fell to the fifth round in this mock.

Yes, I would like the OLine fixed. Whoever plays QB will benefit from the investment.

Garoppolo lasted until the 5th round? I would love that. Which database did you use, the updated Fanspeak, Optimum, or Walter?

Just for discussion,

I think OG need is on left, not right. And we have two OT on IR from last year draft. But ok, OL needs fixing though general thought is OL usually take 2-3 year to develop.

Lkely only need to draft one of Mettenberger or Mccarron. Again unless you want two three year development Projects. By time develop coaches could be gone.

And for me I could see drafting one but not two RB.

I would like more DT options. We lost noth NT we had last year to FA.

It was the updated Fanspeak. I'm not sure the other two get updated.

Nobody knows for sure how many teams are targeting a QB in the first round and how many have lined through Manziel over height or maturity issues.

It may be disinformation but I am hearing that Carr is impressing more and Bridgewater is impressing less so a Bortles, Carr, Bridgewater, Manziel draft board is possible although I still think it is unlikely.

Still, if Manziel is still there at 2-1 and the Texans announce a trade I can only imagine riots by the Aggie faithful. But I saw it as a perfect calculated chance to get another second-day pick for a small move down, knowing the Browns (who just took Bridgewater) and the Redskins (who already have RG3) were not picking a QB so I was able to get the extra third and still get the player I would have taken anyway.

I think there is a big drop-off in ILB after Skov, Borland and Jones so I grabbed Jones while he was still there and then postponed taking a RT since there were three left that could fit the need and 15 more picks to go.

Sankey was too good a value at 4-35 and there was no CB or OG that I could justify taking instead so the rest of the draft just sort of unfolded filling holes with an eye toward special teams value.

OTs can be moved to G easier than the other way. I have Quessenberry penciled in at one of the guards spots although he is listed as an OT on some depth charts. I want one of those blot-out-the-sun RTs now that we are probably dropping the zone blocking scheme. Put that fat Brooks next to that guy and try to run behind them.

I don't think Wade Smith has signed anywhere so he might eventually come back as a cheap 1-yr contract.

How the offense develops depends on who we take at QB.

I agree a DT is a good addition. We added one in free agency but we lost two. Unless he's expected to pass rush, you can find a useful tub of goo in 5-7 rounds.

There's rumors the Browns and Bags really like Carr. I'm the first to admit he has better arm strength for deep passes than Bridgewater. I think Teddy may be the one out of the four to drp into the second round.

If we don't resign Wade, I could see Quess playing LG and the Fat Brooks at RG. I'm drafting a RT and an OG to compete with those other two.

Sankey is my favorite RB, It's going to be hard to pass on him.

I'd like more DT options too. I like Kareem Martin or Will Clarke to play Antonio Smith. Not really seeing the typical NT I would draft early. I would take Caraun Reid because he can pass rush. My favorite Tub of Goo is Zack Kerr from Delaware.

Fanspeak Walter Mock With Trades 4-17-14
 

It looks like Fanspeak has updated their Walter board and I did the trade down with Atlanta. I didn't get the sweetheart offer I sometimes get (1-1 for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th) so I dealt 1-1 and 7-1 to Atlanta for 1-6, 2-5 and 3-4. Then I decided to go for more midround picks so I eventually traded 3-4 to San Francisco for 3-13 and 4-29. Then I took 6-1 and 6-5 and dealt them to Kansas City for 4-24.

That left me with the following:

1-6 (from ATL): Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
2-1 : Dee Ford, DE-OLB, Auburn
2-5 (from ATL): David Yankey, G-T, Stanford
3-1 : Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, E. Illinois
3-13 (from SF): Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
4-1: Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington
4-24 (from KC): E.J. Gaines, CB, Missouri
4-29 (from SF): Chris Smith, DE, Arkansas
4-35 (comp): Daniel McCullers, DT, Tennessee
5-1: Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech
6-35 (comp): Jeff Janis, WR-KR, Saginaw Valley St.
7-41 (comp): Kerry Hyder, DT, Texas Tech

12 picks that give the OL a big boost, supplies a quick pass rusher in Ford, help for Cushing in the middle, d-line bodies in Smith, McCullers and Hyder and two CBs in Gaines and Exum. Plus, we added a QB with upside in Garoppolo, a backup tailback in Sankey and a blazing fast returner in Janis.

This draft really depends on whether Garoppolo is worth the hype but this supplies the parts to solve a lot of needs in a hurry.