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-   -   Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings] (http://inthebullseye.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1574)

Nconroe 12-02-2012 08:52 PM

I'm sure it would be good to have home field advantage for playoffs but for last several years a wold card team has won the superbowl.

There is some counter intuitive evidence it may be better to not have a week off in the playoffs in
the name of consistency and staying hot when your hot.

So main goal of being in playoffs is reached.

Now try to get even better this last quarter of the season.

cadams 12-03-2012 09:15 AM

try to get/stay healthy would be my preference. the texans have a lot of injuries that having that extra week off would assist with

WMH 12-03-2012 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith (Post 32788)
Amazing, though unlikely.

Amazing to do it this early then go more than a month before participating in another meaningful game.

Unlikely because the Raiders and Titans aren't beating anybody.

Totally agree, BUT.....its still pretty cool. ;)

HPF Bob 12-03-2012 12:11 PM

With Baltimore's loss, the Texans have a two-game lead on New England and a 2-1/2 game lead on Baltimore and Denver because of head-to-head wins. Beating the Patriots practically seals the home field advantage whereas a loss would remove our margin for error. We'd probably need to win out against the Colts and Vikings if we lost to the Pats.

cadams 12-03-2012 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 32797)
With Baltimore's loss, the Texans have a two-game lead on New England and a 2-1/2 game lead on Baltimore and Denver because of head-to-head wins. Beating the Patriots practically seals the home field advantage whereas a loss would remove our margin for error. We'd probably need to win out against the Colts and Vikings if we lost to the Pats.

not sure that is right. even with the loss the texans would be 1/2 a game up on the pats, and the pats still have the 49ers on their schedule. i think it is likely the pats lose one game downt the strecth. if they do the texans could lose this coming week, and one more (the finaly indy game maybe) and it not make a difference.

Keith 12-03-2012 01:16 PM

Denver and Baltimore play each other (@BAL) in Week 16, too.

NE's remaining schedule:
14 Mon, Dec 10 vs Houston 8:30 PM
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs San Francisco 8:20 PM NBC
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

Indy's remaining schedule:
14 Sun, Dec 9 vs Tennessee 1:00 PM CBS
15 Sun, Dec 16 @Houston 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Kansas City 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Houston 1:00 PM CBS

The SF @ NE game is maybe a tough one for NE since they play a good 49er defense just 6 days after playing the Texans. So even though the Pats get SF at home, that ought to be a good one.

I think we'll learn a lot more about just how good the Patriots really are in these next two games. They put up a lot of points against weaker opponents. They mauled a decent Rams team 45-7, though that was under unusual circumstances (game played in London), and they mauled a surprising Colts team 59-24, but we're already questioning just how good the Colts really are anyway.

HPF Bob 12-03-2012 05:40 PM

I'm not sure I'd pin my hope on a team traveling east three time zones that isn't even sure who their starting quarterback should be. If this was the old Montana-Craig-Rice 49ers, that would be different.

cadams 12-03-2012 05:45 PM

i don't think he was pinning hopes. rather he was stating that playing them coming off the texans game will do a lot to offset the traveling east issues.

i agree that the next two weeks will give us a very good idea of who the pats are this year. they have really been all over the place. the the team who played in the two big victories discussed by keith, or the team that lost to the cards at home?

Arky 12-04-2012 04:26 AM

What kills me is to hear the TV guys (ESPN, NFLN) talking on the subject of "who's the best in the AFC?".... They so want to give the love to the Manning/Broncos and the Brady/Pats (power polls be damned).... Someone mentions the Texans and they'll mumble something about "defensive problems"..... One guy is still not over the Texan's loss to Green Bay pointing to that as proof they are "not worthy".... smfh....

The lone exception I've seen is Darren Sharper on NFLN. He's been in the Texan's corner for several weeks, now...

A Texan victory of the Pats might just rearrange the paradigm... I've heard one or two of the play-by-play guys mention what some of us are already thinking..... that there is a new player in the top dogs of the NFL and one that is built to stay there for a while....

TheMatrix31 12-04-2012 05:37 AM

I can't take ESPN seriously anyway. I don't watch ESPN unless there's a live event to be watched. And NFL Network is in a major slide, looking more and more like ESPN every day.

Sad.

WMH 12-04-2012 10:24 AM

From Paul K @ ESPN AFC South Blog:

Houston clinches AFC South division with:

1) HOU win + IND loss or tie OR

2) HOU tie + IND loss

Houston clinches a first-round bye with:

1) HOU win + IND loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

2) HOU win + IND loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

Houston clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) HOU win + IND loss or tie + BAL loss + DEN loss

Keith 12-04-2012 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arky (Post 32809)
What kills me is to hear the TV guys (ESPN, NFLN) talking on the subject of "who's the best in the AFC?".... They so want to give the love to the Manning/Broncos and the Brady/Pats (power polls be damned)....

I think a lot of TV guys have simply forgotten or somehow ignored that the Texans beat Denver IN DENVER already this season. I get less irritated when others still claim the Pats are the best... they are the defending AFC champs at least with a credible resume this season, at least for one more week.

HPF Bob 12-04-2012 11:06 AM

These things are earned. Brady and the Pats have done it. Manning in the past has done it. The Texans have never been to an AFC Championship game and you always wonder when nerves will come in to play. So, I'm not worried the Texans get dissed a bit. In fact, I think it is good for the team to maintain focus by reminding them that there are still doubters out there.

The Texans will get their due soon enough.

chuck 12-04-2012 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 32814)
These things are earned. Brady and the Pats have done it. Manning in the past has done it. The Texans have never been to an AFC Championship game and you always wonder when nerves will come in to play. So, I'm not worried the Texans get dissed a bit. In fact, I think it is good for the team to maintain focus by reminding them that there are still doubters out there.

I'm on board with all of this. Just win, baby.

Arky 12-04-2012 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 32814)
These things are earned. Brady and the Pats have done it. Manning in the past has done it. The Texans have never been to an AFC Championship game and you always wonder when nerves will come in to play. So, I'm not worried the Texans get dissed a bit. In fact, I think it is good for the team to maintain focus by reminding them that there are still doubters out there.

The Texans will get their due soon enough.

I'm not worried about it either.... It's just I'm aghast at how far the devil-worshipping-east-coast-media-bias-conspiracy-illuminati (is that enough hot-topics?), have their craniums stuck up their rectums..... ;)

And yep, if the Texans are who we think they are, they'll get that defense tweaked and make some noise.....

barrett 12-04-2012 02:51 PM

Recognition and respect typically arrives too late and lasts too long. Like Bob says, if Houston wins it will come.

Plus I truly could care less about respect and attention from the media. I don't need a national news outlet to validate the Texans. It's not a beauty contest like the BCS. Everyone in the world can agree that Denver and NE are the best, and it doesn't change that those teams will have to come play in Reliant.

WMH 12-11-2012 09:24 AM

Whelp, we have pretty much removed our margin of error.

Go Ratbirds, and Go 9'ers.

3 horse race looks like it will come down to week 17.
Of course I am assuming our guys get thier heads out of thier a$$es.........

HPF Bob 12-11-2012 10:13 AM

I had factored in this loss even back when the schedules came out. Surprised it was so one-sided but not really surprised that we lost. I knew all along it would be our hardest game of the season. We still got that half-game lead and three to play. None will be easy but none should be impossible.

I hope the Texans line the field with Houston cops for when AP comes to town. ;)

HPF Bob 12-12-2012 11:03 AM

Super Bowl matchups of the past 10 years:

2011 -- No. 3 Giants over No. 1 Patriots

2010 — No. 6 Packers over No. 2 Steelers

2009 — No. 1 Saints over No. 1 Colts

2008 — No. 2 Steelers over No. 4 Cardinals

2007 -– No. 5 Giants over No. 1 Patriots

2006 — No. 3 Colts over No. 1 Bears

2005 — No. 6 Steelers over No. 1 Seahawks

2004 — No. 2 Patriots over No. 1 Eagles

2003 — No. 1 Patriots over No. 3 Panthers

2002 — No. 2 Buccaneers over No. 1 Raiders

You can see that #1 seeds in the playoffs don't prosper as well as most of us think, although I also think this misleads a bit. Home field advantage is still huge but the SB winner often seems to be the team that "gets hot" at the right time. This often bodes well for the healthier teams, of which I'd say we're probably about 80% on the health scale right now.

Arky 12-12-2012 01:34 PM

Ya, looks like #1's are 2-7 in the big game (including 2009 when both #1's made it). I think the thing is, if you're a #1, you have a really good chance of "getting there". Didn't remember that Seattle was a #1 back in 2005....

machoneil 12-13-2012 07:10 AM

Indy may not have anything to play for in the last game at thier house

Arky 12-16-2012 10:13 PM

Oooh, if this Niners vs. Pats game hold up (Niners currently leading 31-17, early 4th quarter), I believe the Texans may only need to win 1 of their remaining two games to get home field throughout (aka #1 seed).... Who would've thought the Pats could look so bad on Primetime? I know the Texans would never, uhhhh, nevermind.....

Keith 12-16-2012 11:24 PM

The Niners win over the Pats really does a huge favor for the Broncos. If current seedings hold, it would be the Pats as the #3 going to #2 Denver, assuming of course the Pats survive the Wild Card game.

And if the Colts are #5 and the Ravens #4, I don't think the Ravens are quite so automatic at home anymore. Always upsets in the playoffs....

HPF Bob 12-16-2012 11:54 PM

Texans just need to beat Minny next week to clinch home field overall. Denver now moves into the #2 slot with home games against Cleveland and Kansas City to close out the season.

The most likely scenario now is #1 Houston and #2 Denver get first-week byes.

First week will be Cin/Pit at NE, Indy at Baltimore If the home teams win, it then becomes Baltimore at Houston and NE at Denver. It really can't shape up any better for us.

Oh, and congrats to the AFC East Champion SF 49ers. You are better men than we are.

WMH 12-17-2012 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 33021)
Oh, and congrats to the AFC East Champion SF 49ers. You are better men than we are.

Any given Sunday Bob. You've likely watched enough football to know that. It was amazing to watch the ball bounce the 49ers way as much as it did last night. It was also amazing to watch Brady bring his squad back from doldrums. Its what makes the NFL so great.

Needing 1 W out of 2 games for the #1 seed is pretty damn good if you ask me. We can pick apart this or that, but the fact remains, is we are 12-2, and that sounds pretty damn good to me. :D

Nconroe 12-18-2012 05:21 PM

Hope we wrap this all up with a win this week playing Vikings and Adrian Petersen.

Houston clinches a first-round bye with:

1) HOU win or tie OR
2) NE loss or tie OR
3) DEN loss

Houston clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) HOU win OR
2) HOU tie + DEN loss or tie OR
3) NE loss or tie + DEN loss

Keith 12-18-2012 07:53 PM

Denver's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 3:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 3:25 PM CBS

NE's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

I am not expecting any more help from either of these teams to get the Texans the #1 seed.

cadams 12-19-2012 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith (Post 33046)
Denver's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 3:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 3:25 PM CBS

NE's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

I am not expecting any more help from either of these teams to get the Texans the #1 seed.

if the texans need help then they don't deserve a bye, much less a #1 seed. two winnable games and only need to win one of them.

HPF Bob 12-19-2012 10:23 AM

I tend to agree. The Texans ought to win one of the two games and preferably Sunday's. That's all they need to wrap this up because they have the tiebreaker with Denver and a two-game lead on the Patriots.

HPF Bob 12-23-2012 05:34 PM

Looks like Denver is winning so it should be:

1. Houston 12-3 (has tiebreaker over Denver)
2. Denver 12-3
3. New England 11-4
4. Baltimore 10-5
5. Indianapolis 10-5
5. Cincinnati 9-6

It seems extremely likely that if Houston beats Indy, these standings will look the same next week But if Indy wins, Houston drops to the #3 seed and hosts Cincy in the first round followed by a return trip to New England.

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

painekiller 12-23-2012 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob (Post 33114)
If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

We have to really hope it stays this way.

Arky 12-24-2012 06:17 PM

Though the talk I've heard is Texans as #1 or #3 seed, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that the Texans could end up the #2 seed. Not likely, but here's the scenario: Texans don't show up again and lose to the Colts, Broncos win over KC, and New England loses to Miami. Miami has won their last two by a combined 48-13 (albeit, Jax and Buffalo) but perhaps New England doesn't take the game seriously and rest starters half a game or so and Miami plays a good game. The spread is roughly NE by 11 and dropping (i.e. money is coming in on Miami). The game is in Foxboro, however......Just something to consider.....

Of course, the Texans could solve everything by taking care of the Colts..... I'd rather see the Texans have a bye week to heal despite the "going to get rusty" argument...


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