Did you know Connor Barwin led all Rookie DLinemen in Sacks ?

[nunusguy]

The Houston Texans defensive end posted 4.5 sacks last year while playing primarily on passing downs, posting the highest sacks total among all rookie defensive linemen from last year's draft class. But what makes that accomplishment even more special is that the seven rookie defensive linemen who were selected before Barwin collectively logged 4.5 sacks. And the draft's top two defensive end picks--Kansas City's Tyson Jackson and Buffalo's Aaron Maybin--didn't have a single sack between the two of them.
http://notredame.scout.com/2/953982.html
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[ArlingtonTexan]

Yes. I did.

[nunusguy]

"And the draft's top two defensive end picks--Kansas City's Tyson Jackson and Buffalo's Aaron Maybin--didn't have a single sack between the two of them."
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That's the truly stunning stat I learned in this article. And Jackson was the #3 overall pick in last years Draft. That seemed to be a huge price to pay for
any 3-4 downlineman, but then to have him not get a single sack. And of course OLBs are the primary pass-rushers in that defense, but a team that invests such a high pick on a downlineman I'm sure expects him to make some contribution to sack-totals.

[Joe Joe]

The Texans need to find about another 10 sacks this season. Hopefully, Barwin can play more to add another pass rusher to the field. Smith and Barwin both had better sack numbers after the halfway point in the season. I'm hopeful the Texans can get a good 1st/2nd down DT. Mario, Okoye, Smith, and Barwin should be an adequate front line on third downs if they aren't worn out on 1st and second downs.

[painekiller]

The Texans need to find about another 10 sacks this season. Hopefully, Barwin can play more to add another pass rusher to the field. Smith and Barwin both had better sack numbers after the halfway point in the season. I'm hopeful the Texans can get a good 1st/2nd down DT. Mario, Okoye, Smith, and Barwin should be an adequate front line on third downs if they aren't worn out on 1st and second downs.

Can you say Dan Williams in the 1st?

or

Tyson Alualu or Lamarr Houston in the 2nd?

[Roy P]

Can you say Dan Williams in the 1st?

or

Tyson Alualu or Lamarr Houston in the 2nd?

I really like the idea of Geno Atkins in the 3rd and Linval Joseph in the 4th. Of course that means I'll need an OL, DB, and RB in the first 3 rounds (assuming we trade back up in the 3rd).

Joseph ties up two blockers and gets push up the middle. Atkins attacks the gaps, like Okoye was supposed to do. That allows Mario and Barwin one-on-one matchups which means, we'll be able to get pressure with the front 4!!! Now, just imagine blitzing Cushing, Ryans, or the WILL. :D

[painekiller]

I really like the idea of Geno Atkins in the 3rd and Linval Joseph in the 4th. Of course that means I'll need an OL, DB, and RB in the first 3 rounds (assuming we trade back up in the 3rd).

Joseph ties up two blockers and gets push up the middle. Atkins attacks the gaps, like Okoye was supposed to do. That allows Mario and Barwin one-on-one matchups which means, we'll be able to get pressure with the front 4!!! Now, just imagine blitzing Cushing, Ryans, or the WILL. :D

I could go with this.

[painekiller]

I really like the idea of Geno Atkins in the 3rd and Linval Joseph in the 4th. Of course that means I'll need an OL, DB, and RB in the first 3 rounds (assuming we trade back up in the 3rd).



Try This:

1st Mathews RB
2nd Brandon Ghee CB
3rd Geno Atkins Georgia DT
4th Linval Joseph East Carolina DT
5th Marshall Newhouse OG TCU or Shelley Smith OG Colorado State
6th Jamar Wall CB Texas Tech
6th Lonyae Miller RB Fresno State
7th Jeff Byers C Southern California

No way they start a rookie in the OL this season.

Brown Pitts Smith Caldwell Winston if they resign Chester, who they have talked to.

Just a thought...

[NBT]

The first pick needs to be DT or CB/FS. How do you know Mathews will be any better than Foster? I am hoping Slaton will be able to return from his nerve damage.

[barrett]

How do we know a DT will be better then Cody? Or a CB better then Quinn/Molden/Reeves?

All of the guys above are far more proven then Arian Foster and yet we can't go RB because we have Foster (a guy with 2 NFL games)?

I am not saying we should go RB, I am just saying that Arian Foster should not factor at all into what we spend our first round pick on.

[painekiller]

The first pick needs to be DT or CB/FS. How do you know Mathews will be any better than Foster? I am hoping Slaton will be able to return from his nerve damage.

So you want to reach for a bad fit?

On CBSsports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2010?tag=pageContainer;playerRatings) they have the following ranking from 16 to 32
OVR Pos. Rank Player Pos. School Ht. Wt. Proj. Rd. 40 Time
16 3 Dan Williams DT Tennessee 6-2 327 1 5.17
17 1 Mike Iupati OG Idaho 6-5 331 1 5.30
18 2 Jason Pierre-Paul DE South Florida 6-5 270 1 4.72
19 2 Earl Thomas CB Texas 5-10 208 1 4.48
20 3 Everson Griffen DE Southern California 6-4 273 1 4.66
21 2 Sergio Kindle OLB Texas 6-3 250 1 4.71
22 2 Ryan Mathews RB Fresno State 6-0 218 1 4.45
23 4 Anthony Davis OT Rutgers 6-5 323 1 5.44
24 3 Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri 6-1 239 1 4.68
25 4 Carlos Dunlap DE Florida 6-6 277 1 4.71
26 3 Kyle Wilson CB Boise State 5-10 194 1-2 4.42
27 2 Golden Tate WR Notre Dame 5-10 199 1-2 4.42
28 5 Jerry Hughes DE TCU 6-2 255 1-2 4.69
29 4 Brian Price DT UCLA 6-1 303 1-2 5.16
30 4 Devin McCourty CB Rutgers 5-11 193 1-2 4.48
31 5 Charles Brown OT Southern California 6-6 303 1-2 5.16
32 1 Maurkice Pouncey C Florida 6-5 304 1-2 5.27


Williams is the only DT worthy of #20, and he should be gone to Miami or some other 3-4 team. Plus he is a hold up 2 blocker type. I like him, but I don't think the team is looking for him.

Earl Thomas is worth our pick, but the scouts are telling McClain he will be gone by 20. If he drops grab him.

Mathews fits our system, has a history of rising to the top of the RB list, has played in a zone system, as break away speed. He is worthy of the #20 pick.

We don't need a DE or 3-4 OLB, and that is the main guys ranked around our pick. And to trade down is hard plus you run the risk of losing the guy you really want.

I love Weatherspoon, but the Texans will not draft him in the 1st. But what a LB core we would have.

I'm not an Price or Odrick fan, they just doesn't light my fire. Rather take Houston or Alualu in the 2nd.

Now are you wanting to take Taylor Mays if he drops? He was awful in coverage during one on one drills a the senior bowl. Looked better in the game.

Wilson is a slight reach at 20, but i would not complain if they drafted him.

[Joshua]

How do we know a DT will be better then Cody? Or a CB better then Quinn/Molden/Reeves?

All of the guys above are far more proven then Arian Foster and yet we can't go RB because we have Foster (a guy with 2 NFL games)?

I am not saying we should go RB, I am just saying that Arian Foster should not factor at all into what we spend our first round pick on.

I'm with Barrett on this one. No way we can cross RB off the list of potential first round picks merely because Foster had a couple good games at the end of the season. His one big game was against NE, who I seem to recall resting Wilfork, Warren, and several others. Even Wali Lundy had a good game or two. While you certainly hope for the best, this tiny sample size tells you nothing about what you have at RB.

[Joe Joe]

Can you say Dan Williams in the 1st?

or

Tyson Alualu or Lamarr Houston in the 2nd?

I've not seen Alualu, but the other two would mostly be great additions. I think Price may be more what the Texans are looking for in the first round over Williams.

[Roy P]

So you want to reach for a bad fit?

I love Weatherspoon, but the Texans will not draft him in the 1st. But what a LB core we would have.

I'm not an Price or Odrick fan, they just doesn't light my fire. Rather take Houston or Alualu in the 2nd.

Now are you wanting to take Taylor Mays if he drops? He was awful in coverage during one on one drills a the senior bowl. Looked better in the game.

Wilson is a slight reach at 20, but i would not complain if they drafted him.

If we can't trade down and the choice is between Weatherspoon or Mathews, I'll select the LB. He is a unique talent at a position that could be upgraded. If I wanted to minimize risk, 'Spoon is my guy. Price and Odrick are too risky for my taste. I simply can't see how they translate. Price may be available in the 2nd round.

I think I can work with Taylor Mays if I'm willing to assume some risk. He fits in a position of need and if the coaches can teach him something, that's a great fit. He has top 5 athleticism at #20 due to his lack of "instincts" that he claims was a product of his coaching. If I "blow" this pick and he can't play FS, I can move him to WILL and still get something out of him.

I wouldn't be too upset with getting Kyle Wilson simply because we let Dunta Robinson go. We need a better CB anyway to defend Reggie Wayne. Since I can't guarantee that McCourty or Ghee will be available at #51, a slight reach here isn't bad.

[NBT]

So you want to reach for a bad fit?

On CBSsports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX/2010?tag=pageContainer;playerRatings)they have the following ranking from 16 to 32


Williams is the only DT worthy of #20, and he should be gone to Miami or some other 3-4 team. Plus he is a hold up 2 blocker type. I like him, but I don't think the team is looking for him.

Earl Thomas is worth our pick, but the scouts are telling McClain he will be gone by 20. If he drops grab him.

Mathews fits our system, has a history of rising to the top of the RB list, has played in a zone system, as break away speed. He is worthy of the #20 pick.

We don't need a DE or 3-4 OLB, and that is the main guys ranked around our pick. And to trade down is hard plus you run the risk of losing the guy you really want.

I love Weatherspoon, but the Texans will not draft him in the 1st. But what a LB core we would have.

I'm not an Price or Odrick fan, they just doesn't light my fire. Rather take Houston or Alualu in the 2nd.

Now are you wanting to take Taylor Mays if he drops? He was awful in coverage during one on one drills a the senior bowl. Looked better in the game.

Wilson is a slight reach at 20, but i would not complain if they drafted him.

A bad fit? how have I ever indicated that? NO, I think the Texans MAY slide up two or three spots to get ahead of the Tacks so as to draft either DT Williams, CB Wilson, or FS Thomas. If they can't do that, and decide to settle for a RB, I think they would slide down to 26 or 27 to do that. I know this sounds very IFFY, but that's what I think they will do.

[Roy P]

A bad fit? how have I ever indicated that? NO, I think the Texans MAY slide up two or three spots to get ahead of the Tacks so as to draft either DT Williams, CB Wilson, or FS Thomas. If they can't do that, and decide to settle for a RB, I think they would slide down to 26 or 27 to do that. I know this sounds very IFFY, but that's what I think they will do.

I would be content with either scenario. Earl Thomas and Dan Williams are difference makers that probably won't drop. Otherwise, pick up more picks to get the RB.

[nunusguy]

If they can't do that, and decide to settle for a RB, I think they would slide down to 26 or 27 to do that.
I dunno, there must be a facility (maybe Vegas has something) or other forum for betting the Texans DON'T draft a back with their first round pick ?
Kubiak learned from his mentor in Denver you only invest the bare minimum in a back when you know he's just one play away from a season-ending injury. Oh I know they took Portis in the second round back in the day, but that's about as much as they use a Draft pick on for a back IMO. Just look at all the damaged/injured players they had last year within their own running back corps - anyone of those guys could be this years first round pick if they were to draft a back that high.
Even if it's a reach, use that first rounder on a player with real positional value like CB or DLine or OLine and get your back in the mid or late rounds - afterall they're a dime a dozen anyway.

[Joshua]

I dunno, there must be a facility (maybe Vegas has something) or other forum for betting the Texans DON'T draft a back with their first round pick ?
Kubiak learned from his mentor in Denver you only invest the bare minimum in a back when you know he's just one play away from a season-ending injury. Oh I know they took Portis in the second round back in the day, but that's about as much as they use a Draft pick on for a back IMO. Just look at all the damaged/injured players they had last year within their own running back corps - anyone of those guys could be this years first round pick if they were to draft a back that high.
Even if it's a reach, use that first rounder on a player with real positional value like CB or DLine or OLine and get your back in the mid or late rounds - afterall they're a dime a dozen anyway.

While this is clearly the conventional wisdom, has anyone actually seen a quote from Shanahan, Kubiak or anyone else who was high up the Denver food chain who has actually stated, on the record, that this was their draft strategy and they willfully ignored RBs in the 1st round? I’ve not seen one and I wonder if this thinking has taken on a life of its own far greater than anything that was actually going on in Denver (or is currently going on in Houston).

Shanahan was with Denver from 1995 through 2008. In 1995, they drafted Terrell Davis. They hit the jackpot with him and he performed great through 1998. Through those years, it’s hardly a surprise that they didn’t use a 1st rounder (or anything more than a late rounder) on a RB. Nevertheless, they did spend a 3rd rounder in 1996 and a 5th rounder in 1998 on RBs. After TD fell off in 1999, they used a 4th rounder in 1999 draft (Olandis Gary) and a 6th rounder in 2000 (Mike Anderson). These guys performed OK for a couple of years. However, they then used a 2nd rounder in 2002 (Portis), a 4th rounder in 2003 (Griffin), and a 2nd rounder again in 2004 (Tatum Bell). That doesn’t strike as a concerted effort to avoid drafting running backs high but just reflects the team’s needs at the time. In all, Shanahan had no reason to use a 1st on a RB during the TD years. After TD’s injuries slowed him, they got by for a couple years with Gary and Anderson and then used 2 high draft picks (both 2nds) to draft Portis and Bell. Sounds like pretty standard drafting.

For comparison sake, here are the 1st round picks sorted by team - http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=roundbyteam. The Redskins haven’t used a 1st rounder on a RB since 1967. The Eagles haven’t since 1986. Green Bay, the Jets and the 49ers hasn’t since 1990. Pittsburgh went 1989-2008 without drafting a RB in the 1st. The Cowboys went from 1990 -2008. The Raiders went 1995-2008 without drafting a RB. Tennessee went from 1996-2008. Detroit went 1989-2004.

Finally, didn’t the Texans acknowledge that they tried to trade back up into the 1st round a couple of years ago to get DeAngelo Williams? I think the “Shanahan/Kubiak/Denver-system guys will never draft a back high because they can find someone in the later rounds” is way overblown. RB is clearly a position of need and if a guy they graded out to be the best player available is there, I have little doubt that they will take him.

[Roy P]

I wonder if this thinking has taken on a life of its own far greater than anything that was actually going on in Denver (or is currently going on in Houston).

I think the “Shanahan/Kubiak/Denver-system guys will never draft a back high because they can find someone in the later rounds” is way overblown. RB is clearly a position of need and if a guy they graded out to be the best player available is there, I have little doubt that they will take him.

That's some mighty fine analysis. However, I am wondering if C.J. Spiller is available at #20. Otherwise, I think that waiting until the 2nd round is the way to go or maybe even the 3rd.

[Joshua]

That's some mighty fine analysis. However, I am wondering if C.J. Spiller is available at #20. Otherwise, I think that waiting until the 2nd round is the way to go or maybe even the 3rd.

I certainly don't disagree with that. As I'm not a draft guru guy, I'll leave it to others to opine on who would be the best pick for us, whatever position that might be. I just find the notion that every position is in play except for punters, kickers, and running backs in the 1st round is highly unlikely. Particularly when that belief is based on something that happened 10 years ago and the immediate past (i.e., Gary's 4 years here) suggests he can't just plug in anybody.

[Joe Joe]

Detroit went 1989-2004.

Not a good example. There were still WRs on the board.

[Roy P]

Not a good example. There were still WRs on the board.

That's funny.

[chuck]

We all know that you can get productive RBs later if you know what you're doing. We all know that many if not most of the elite RBs in the league today were taken in the first round. The question is can you afford to take an elite RB in the first. RBs have a limited shelf life. Had the Texans taken an RB with their first pick in 2003, McGahee, for example, that poor bastard would be in a wheelchair now.

Where's the value? Will the right first round RB put the team over the hump and into the playoffs? Will that RB blossom into full productivity when the rest of the team is peaking, too? Or should the team look to address other areas of weakness this year while hoping to luck into a star in the 4th (which they've done before) and thinking that they should be able to reach for a back next year?

I think it boils down to BPA at the three or four positions of desperate need once the pick rolls around.

[painekiller]

We all know that you can get productive RBs later if you know what you're doing. We all know that many if not most of the elite RBs in the league today were taken in the first round. The question is can you afford to take an elite RB in the first. RBs have a limited shelf life. Had the Texans taken an RB with their first pick in 2003, McGahee, for example, that poor bastard would be in a wheelchair now.

Where's the value? Will the right first round RB put the team over the hump and into the playoffs? Will that RB blossom into full productivity when the rest of the team is peaking, too? Or should the team look to address other areas of weakness this year while hoping to luck into a star in the 4th (which they've done before) and thinking that they should be able to reach for a back next year?

I think it boils down to BPA at the three or four positions of desperate need once the pick rolls around.

Great post.

[nunusguy]

We all know that you can get productive RBs later if you know what you're doing. We all know that many if not most of the elite RBs in the league today were taken in the first round. The question is can you afford to take an elite RB in the first. RBs have a limited shelf life. Had the Texans taken an RB with their first pick in 2003, McGahee, for example, that poor bastard would be in a wheelchair now.

In busines/economics terminology that's called "opportunity cost", i.e., in this context what is the cost of forgoing the opportunity to use the very valuable first-round pick to select a player of higher positional value like CB, LT, etc. than using it on a running back ?

[NBT]

I think Chuck pretty well hits the nail on the head. Who is to say we don't already have our RB in Arian Foster or one of the taxi squad people from last year?

What I am beginning to come around to is that we should hope to wait and get Earl Thomas at the much needed FS spot with the 20th pick. I would even consider trading up 3 or 4 spots in order to snatch him. If that doesn't happen, I would keep my options open and possibly even trade down if the right deal came along. Flexibilty is the key.

[Nconroe]

Yep, and we got some new Offensive coordinators an OL coaches who might just make our running game better via scheme, coaching methods, fresh approach, as well. Maybe an upgraded and more experienced and healthy OL as well. Even healthy RB's returning.