Roy P's Draft Board

[Roy P]

Well, Jake Long is the 1st pick of the draft (allegedly) and we are getting very close to my own personal Christmas. Since PFW has gone down, my draft board has fluctuated some. There are 71 players on this list who I feel the Texans have a shot at drafting, otherwise Vernon Gholston would be at the top of the list. Anyway, I'll be the first to say that my board doesn't match up with many of the "experts" that I see on the internet. I have guys like Carl Nicks rated higher and guys like Dexter Jackson much lower. While keeping in mind that I don't want to "reach" for a player early who I may be able to theoretically get later, I've tried to stay true to my own opinion on player projections. If I'm going to be wrong about a guy, I want it to be because of what I thought, not what somebody else told me to think. Vinny taught me that. Anyway, I'm sure I'll catch heat on my #1 guy, but I can live with that. I've seen him as low at #49 on one "expert" mock draft. It would be awesome if the Texans were able to trade down and still get him, but that remains to be seen. So, here are "My Guys" going into the 2008 draft.

1 CB Antoine Cason - Arizona 6'0" 190 4.45
2 CB Dom Rodgers Cromartie - Tenn St 6' 1 1/2" 184 4.33
3 CB Leodis McKelvin - Troy 5' 10 1/4" 190 4.38
4 OT Branden Albert - Virginia 6' 6" 309 5.17
5 RB Rashard Mendenhall - Illinois 5' 10 1/8" 225 4.45
6 DE Derrick Harvey - Florida 6' 4 5/8" 271 4.82
7 OT Chris Williams - Vandy 6' 6" 315 5.17
8 WR James Hardy - Indiana 6' 6" 217 4.49
9 OT Carl Nicks - Nebraska 6' 5" 341 5.18
10 DT Trevor Laws - USC 6' 0 3/4" 304 5.13
11 LB Cliff Avril - Purdue 6' 2 7/8" 253 4.59
12 LB Jerod Mayo - Tennessee 6' 1" 242 4.54
13 CB Tracy Porter - Indiana 5'11" 188 4.37
14 RB Matt Forte - Tulane 6' 1 1 7/8" 217 4.46
15 RB Ray Rice - Rutgers 5' 8" 199 4.47
16 DT Dre Moore - Maryland 6' 4" 305 4.84
17 WR Andre Caldwell - Florida 6'1" 204 4.37
18 TE Dustin Keller Purdue 6' 2" 242 4.54
19 LB Marcus Howard - Georgia 6' 1" 238 4.45
20 RB Chris Johnson - East Carolina 5' 11" 197 4.24
21 DE Jeremy Thompson - Wake Forest 6' 4 3/8" 264 4.75
22 OT Jeremy Zuttah - Rutgers 6' 4" 303 4.99
23 CB Charles Godfrey - Iowa 6'0" 207 4.44
24 S Quentin Demps - UTEP 6'0" 206 4.39
25 CB Antwaun Molden - Eastern Ky. 6' 0 3/4" 198 4.44
26 OT Duane Brown - Va Tech 6' 4" 315 5.08
27 RB Tashard Choice - Ga Tech 5' 10 1/2" 215 4.50
28 QB Josh Johnson - San Diego 6'3" 213 4.55
29 QB John David Booty - USC 6'3" 218 4.82
30 OG Donald Thomas - Connecticut 6' 4" 303 5.00
31 CB Patrick Lee - Auburn 6'0" 200 4.41
32 S DaJuan Morgan - NC St. 6' 0 1/8" 205 4.56
33 WR Will Franklin - Missouri 6' 1" 214 4.37
34 DT DeMario Pressley NC State 6' 3" 300 5.12
35 LB Bryan Kehl - BYU 6' 2" 242 4.57
36 LB Ben Moffitt S. Florida 6' 1" 234 4.59
37 WR Paul Hubbard Wisconsin 6' 3" 221 4.49
38 LB Stanford Kegler - Purdue 6' 1 5/8" 239 4.55
39 LB Wesley Woodyard - Kentucky 6' 0 3/8" 227 4.51
40 DE Jason Jones - Eastern Michigan 6' 5 1/4" 273 4.78
41 RB Thomas Brown - Georgia 5' 8 3/8" 204 4.42
42 RB Kevin Smith - Central Fla 6' 1 1 1/8" 217 4.48
43 WR Darius Reynaud - W Va 5' 9" 203 4.47
44 WR Arman Shields - Richmond 6' 0 3/4" 194 4.44
45 DT Nick Hayden - Wisconsin 6' 4" 291 5.24
46 DE Brian Johnston Gardner Webb 6' 5" 274 4.68
47 DT Marcus Harrison - Arkansas 6' 3" 317 5.06
48 DE Chris Harrington - Texas A&M 6'5" 264 4.84
49 DE Trevor Scott - Buffalo 6'5" 256 4.59
50 CB Tyvon Branch - U Conn 6'0" 204 4.31
51 WR Keenan Burton - Kentucky 6' 1" 201 4.49
52 CB Terrence Wheatley - Colorado 5'10" 187 4.37
53 DT Carlton Powell - Va Tech 6' 2" 292 5.03
54 WR Dexter Jackson - Appalachian St. 5' 10" 182 4.37
55 CB Michael Grant - Arkansas 6'1" 193 4.37
56 WR Harry Douglas - Louisville 5' 11" 176 4.51
57 TE Jacob Tamme - Kentucky 6' 3" 236 4.58
58 DT Keilen Dykes - West Va. 6' 4" 295 5.06
59 RB Jalen Parmele - Toledo 6' 0" 224 4.47
60 WR Pierre Garcon - Mt. Union 6'0" 209 4.48
61 CB Darnell Terrell Missouri 6'2" 203 4.46
62 CB Orlando Scandrick - Boise St. 5'10" 192 4.32
63 TE Gary Barnidge - Louisville 6' 6" 243 4.65
64 RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis - Mississippi 5' 10 5/8" 219 4.55
65 QB Matt Flynn - LSU 6' 2" 231 4.79
66 CB Jonathan Wilhite - Auburn 5'10" 185 4.38
67 S Derrick Doggett - Oregon St. 6'2" 212 4.53
68 S Dowayne Davis Syracuse 6'0" 202 4.46
69 CB Marcus Walker - Oklahoma 5'11" 191 4.46
70 LB Steve Octavien - Nebraska 6' 0" 238 4.67
71 CB Brandon Carr- GrandValley St 6' 0" 207 4.43

[badboy]

Well, Jake Long is the 1st pick of the draft (allegedly) and we are getting very close to my own personal Christmas. Since PFW has gone down, my draft board has fluctuated some. There are 71 players on this list who I feel the Texans have a shot at drafting, otherwise Vernon Gholston would be at the top of the list. Anyway, I'll be the first to say that my board doesn't match up with many of the "experts" that I see on the internet. I have guys like Carl Nicks rated higher and guys like Dexter Jackson much lower. While keeping in mind that I don't want to "reach" for a player early who I may be able to theoretically get later, I've tried to stay true to my own opinion on player projections. If I'm going to be wrong about a guy, I want it to be because of what I thought, not what somebody else told me to think. Vinny taught me that. Anyway, I'm sure I'll catch heat on my #1 guy, but I can live with that. I've seen him as low at #49 on one "expert" mock draft. It would be awesome if the Texans were able to trade down and still get him, but that remains to be seen. So, here are "My Guys" going into the 2008 draft.

1 CB Antoine Cason - Arizona 6'0" 190 4.45
2 CB Dom Rodgers Cromartie - Tenn St 6' 1 1/2" 184 4.33
3 CB Leodis McKelvin - Troy 5' 10 1/4" 190 4.38
4 OT Branden Albert - Virginia 6' 6" 309 5.17
5 RB Rashard Mendenhall - Illinois 5' 10 1/8" 225 4.45
6 DE Derrick Harvey - Florida 6' 4 5/8" 271 4.82
7 OT Chris Williams - Vandy 6' 6" 315 5.17
8 WR James Hardy - Indiana 6' 6" 217 4.49
9 OT Carl Nicks - Nebraska 6' 5" 341 5.18
10 DT Trevor Laws - USC 6' 0 3/4" 304 5.13
11 LB Cliff Avril - Purdue 6' 2 7/8" 253 4.59
12 LB Jerod Mayo - Tennessee 6' 1" 242 4.54
13 CB Tracy Porter - Indiana 5'11" 188 4.37
14 RB Matt Forte - Tulane 6' 1 1 7/8" 217 4.46
15 RB Ray Rice - Rutgers 5' 8" 199 4.47
16 DT Dre Moore - Maryland 6' 4" 305 4.84
17 WR Andre Caldwell - Florida 6'1" 204 4.37
18 TE Dustin Keller Purdue 6' 2" 242 4.54
19 LB Marcus Howard - Georgia 6' 1" 238 4.45
20 RB Chris Johnson - East Carolina 5' 11" 197 4.24
21 DE Jeremy Thompson - Wake Forest 6' 4 3/8" 264 4.75
22 OT Jeremy Zuttah - Rutgers 6' 4" 303 4.99
23 CB Charles Godfrey - Iowa 6'0" 207 4.44
24 S Quentin Demps - UTEP 6'0" 206 4.39
25 CB Antwaun Molden - Eastern Ky. 6' 0 3/4" 198 4.44
26 OT Duane Brown - Va Tech 6' 4" 315 5.08
27 RB Tashard Choice - Ga Tech 5' 10 1/2" 215 4.50
28 QB Josh Johnson - San Diego 6'3" 213 4.55
29 QB John David Booty - USC 6'3" 218 4.82
30 OG Donald Thomas - Connecticut 6' 4" 303 5.00
31 CB Patrick Lee - Auburn 6'0" 200 4.41
32 S DaJuan Morgan - NC St. 6' 0 1/8" 205 4.56
33 WR Will Franklin - Missouri 6' 1" 214 4.37
34 DT DeMario Pressley NC State 6' 3" 300 5.12
35 LB Bryan Kehl - BYU 6' 2" 242 4.57
36 LB Ben Moffitt S. Florida 6' 1" 234 4.59
37 WR Paul Hubbard Wisconsin 6' 3" 221 4.49
38 LB Stanford Kegler - Purdue 6' 1 5/8" 239 4.55
39 LB Wesley Woodyard - Kentucky 6' 0 3/8" 227 4.51
40 DE Jason Jones - Eastern Michigan 6' 5 1/4" 273 4.78
41 RB Thomas Brown - Georgia 5' 8 3/8" 204 4.42
42 RB Kevin Smith - Central Fla 6' 1 1 1/8" 217 4.48
43 WR Darius Reynaud - W Va 5' 9" 203 4.47
44 WR Arman Shields - Richmond 6' 0 3/4" 194 4.44
45 DT Nick Hayden - Wisconsin 6' 4" 291 5.24
46 DE Brian Johnston Gardner Webb 6' 5" 274 4.68
47 DT Marcus Harrison - Arkansas 6' 3" 317 5.06
48 DE Chris Harrington - Texas A&M 6'5" 264 4.84
49 DE Trevor Scott - Buffalo 6'5" 256 4.59
50 CB Tyvon Branch - U Conn 6'0" 204 4.31
51 WR Keenan Burton - Kentucky 6' 1" 201 4.49
52 CB Terrence Wheatley - Colorado 5'10" 187 4.37
53 DT Carlton Powell - Va Tech 6' 2" 292 5.03
54 WR Dexter Jackson - Appalachian St. 5' 10" 182 4.37
55 CB Michael Grant - Arkansas 6'1" 193 4.37
56 WR Harry Douglas - Louisville 5' 11" 176 4.51
57 TE Jacob Tamme - Kentucky 6' 3" 236 4.58
58 DT Keilen Dykes - West Va. 6' 4" 295 5.06
59 RB Jalen Parmele - Toledo 6' 0" 224 4.47
60 WR Pierre Garcon - Mt. Union 6'0" 209 4.48
61 CB Darnell Terrell Missouri 6'2" 203 4.46
62 CB Orlando Scandrick - Boise St. 5'10" 192 4.32
63 TE Gary Barnidge - Louisville 6' 6" 243 4.65
64 RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis - Mississippi 5' 10 5/8" 219 4.55
65 QB Matt Flynn - LSU 6' 2" 231 4.79
66 CB Jonathan Wilhite - Auburn 5'10" 185 4.38
67 S Derrick Doggett - Oregon St. 6'2" 212 4.53
68 S Dowayne Davis Syracuse 6'0" 202 4.46
69 CB Marcus Walker - Oklahoma 5'11" 191 4.46
70 LB Steve Octavien - Nebraska 6' 0" 238 4.67
71 CB Brandon Carr- GrandValley St 6' 0" 207 4.43
With the exception of DRC , Cason and McKelvin, I would be happy with any of your top 7 @ 18. McKelvin supposedly does not like to bang which should turn Smith off and Cason should go much later. I am ambivalent on DRC as comment about him is from bust to boom.

[idymoe]

Outstanding to have this site up!!!!

Roy, I think there is very little chance your Number 1 guy won't be available at 18. If the Texans aren't blowing smoke about wanting a LT,(which could easily be the case) their best hope is that Williams or Albert is there at 18. For that to happen, I think McFaddin, Stewart and Jenkins have to be taken in 1st 17 picks. If not those guys, a qb or a second receiver. What are the odds?

My question is, if Williams and Albert are gone, do the Texans value either Cherilus, Nicks, or Brown enough to "reach" for them at 18? You could throw Collins in there, too, I guess. I think all those guys are gone before the third round. I don't know what the difference in money is for an 18th pick and say a 23rd or 26th pick, where I've seen Cherilus in a number of mocks, or even early 2nd round. If Texans had a high 2nd round pick and selected one of those four, does it impact how good a player a guy becomes, versus selecting him at 18? Of course not. It boils down to money. If you really like one of those guys, do you let 1st round money keep you from taking him?

The knee jerk answer is BPA, don't reach. This is a myth, IMHO, because evaluation is so inexact. This is why you have so many 1st and 2nd round busts.

Roy, you like Cason a lot(& so do I) but say if you could have Nicks and Antwaun Molden versus Cason and maybe John Greko, or some other combinations, does that at lease make you consider a lower ranked OT in the first?

[Joshua]

Well, Roy, here's one guy that agrees with you on Cason -

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/04/23/2008draft/1.html

Underrated: Antoine Cason, Arizona

Four-year starter. Three-time All Pac-10 honoree. Fifteen career interceptions, including three touchdowns. And a signature, nationally televised performance last season against then second-ranked Oregon in which he scored on both a 42-yard interception return and a 56-yard punt return. I'm not sure you could ask for a more solid, consistent four-year career by a major-conference cornerback (Aqib Talib turned pro early), yet he's only considered a second-rounder, well behind a guy from Troy (Leodis McKelvin) and a guy from Tennessee State (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie). What more did the guy need to do?

[painekiller]

Well, Roy, here's one guy that agrees with you on Cason -

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/04/23/2008draft/1.html

Underrated: Antoine Cason, Arizona



My understanding is Cason is considered a zone coverage CB, who maybe a FS candidate. The way I am hearing the team talk about cover types they are looking at turn and run cover guys, or man to man for us old school guys.

[Roy P]

I've read the reports about Cason being a Zone or even a "Cover-2" CB. From what I've seen though, Cason has the ability to run with WRs. I saw him running step-for-step with DeSean Jackson to deflect a pass away and DeSean is being talked about as a "speed" guy.

Cason ran a 4.45 - 40 and his 4.08 - Shuttle was impressive. The guy plays smart and could run the Secondary. He tackles and can create turnovers. I compare him to a young Ty Law, and that's not bad company.

[Roy P]

Outstanding to have this site up!!!!

My question is, if Williams and Albert are gone, do the Texans value either Cherilus, Nicks, or Brown enough to "reach" for them at 18? You could throw Collins in there, too, I guess.

If you really like one of those guys, do you let 1st round money keep you from taking him?

The knee jerk answer is BPA, don't reach. This is a myth, IMHO, because evaluation is so inexact.

if you could have Nicks and Antwaun Molden versus Cason and maybe John Greko, or some other combinations, does that at lease make you consider a lower ranked OT in the first?

After the college football season was over, Chris Williams was a guy that PK and I were all over because he was considered a 3rd round pick. During the post-season - Williams is being talked about as a top 15 guy. Conversely, Carl Nicks has had some "off field" issues come up that have caused him to drop significantly. I believe Draft Scout currently has him as a 4th round pick!

My best case scenario has us trading down and selecting Cason, Nicks, and Forte with our top 3 picks.

However, your question is do I want a Combo of Cason and say Duane Brown or Nicks and Molden. I'd have to say Cason and whowever is available later on. There is a risk that Molden might not be available in the 3rd when we select. Even if he were, that drop off is too steep for me to swallow. Also, with Alex Gibbs on board their is a wild card named Brandon Frye already on my roster. He has the athleticism of a Duane Brown and Chris Williams and with good coaching could contribute this season. Also, I'd be hating myself if Carl Nicks was on the board in the 3rd round when we picked and I reached for Collins at #18 in order to then have to settle for Molden.

Let me also state that I was one of the 1st Molden supporters after I saw him play in the Texas vs. The Nation game. Then when I saw what he did at the Combine vs. DR-C, I proposed that this other small school CB wasn't getting the same type of hype. However, Molden has some considerable risk. I wouldn't mind seeing him as a 4th round project like Fred Bennett was last year. The thing that worries me is that our secondary isn't something that I want to be gambling with.

There is a reason I have Cason above Williams and Albert. He makes this team better than those guys can on day one. If Nicks isn't there in the 3rd, I could see Gibbs working some magic with a guy like Jeremy Zuttah or Frye like I have already mentioned.

I agree with this BPA philosophy being sort of a myth. That's why I don't feel as if Cason or even Nicks would be a "reach" at the #18 slot if we can't trade down. A "reach" is currently being defined as a player who is not being predicted to being selected at a certain slot in the draft. Most of the people doing the predicting are no better talent evaluators than any of us. Sure, the media outlets perhaps talk to more NFL scouts and GMs, but even those guys get it wrong. I remember last year Mike Mayock saying that he couldn't believe that Adrian Peterson went that high to Minn, and Craig "Buster" Davis wasn't even on his list of top available prospects when the Chargers drafted the WR from LSU. It's comical to hear the "experts" project that there is no way Matt Ryan slides past the Ravens this year when only last year those same "experts" proclaimed with 100% certainty that Quinn's worst case scenario was #9 to Miami.

[painekiller]

I've read the reports about Cason being a Zone or even a "Cover-2" CB. From what I've seen though, Cason has the ability to run with WRs. I saw him running step-for-step with DeSean Jackson to deflect a pass away and DeSean is being talked about as a "speed" guy.

Cason ran a 4.45 - 40 and his 4.08 - Shuttle was impressive. The guy plays smart and could run the Secondary. He tackles and can create turnovers. I compare him to a young Ty Law, and that's not bad company.

I think you sold me on his quality. I know he is a leader, but I am not seeing him ranked as a 1st rounder. So Trade down for anything, get me a 4th or 3rd rounder. Trade Sage for a 3rd and then I might be happy. Might

[Roy P]

I think you sold me on his quality. I know he is a leader, but I am not seeing him ranked as a 1st rounder. So Trade down for anything, get me a 4th or 3rd rounder. Trade Sage for a 3rd and then I might be happy. Might


I guess it simply depends on where you look.


http://www.gbnreport.com/top100.html (#34)
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/ppSD/protected/talentboard.shtml? (1st round)
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/rankings/top.html (#31)
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/players.php?genpos=CB&draftyear=2008&sortorder=tsxpos&order=ASC (1st or 2nd round)
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/top64.php?draftyear=2008 (#31)

Now, many of these sites rank players with some thought about the draft. Mock drafts that line players up with teams who need their position will move a player up or down 10 - 15 picks. If many mocks list Chris Williams as the "logical" scenario going to the Texans at #18, then their player rankings will have him around that slot (so as to not appear to be making a reach).

Again, while I love reading what the so-called experts are projecting, I take it with a grain of salt. I think Cason has talent and some of the intangibles that made DeMeco Ryans a great draft pick. Take a look back and see where Jason Witten was projected. Hell, he was a 3rd round pick (after Joppru). I don't think anybody would be complaining now if we had "reached" for him then in the 1st round.

Trust me, I'm like you and want more picks. I'm ecstatic that Cason is not getting any of the hype that D R-C and McKelvin are getting. It would be awesome to have him fly under the radar to us at pick #25 allowing us to then draft Carl Nicks with our next pick. However, if the phone doesn't ring, and there are no trade options, I'm handing in the card to the Commish at #18 with Antoine Cason's name on it.

[idymoe]

Roy, thanks for the detailed response. If your best case scenario happened, I would be tickled. I try to set my expectations a little lower on things I can't control, to reduce my possible level of dissapointment. There are many ways the draft could turn out, and I would be very happy. I am expecting the Texans' draft to be a little worse than the last two years, but still solid. Of course, I'm hoping for better, but I am nervous about our 1st round pick. I would be fine with Cason, as I consider him a safe pick to be a solid starter for years, but I would be surprised if the Texans drafted him. If the top 5 OT's are gone and Jenkins and Cason are there at 18, I guess the Texans would take Jenkins, but I think Cason is a better rounded player. I have reservations about just about everyone else. Talib has skills, but is a little too wild off the field. Would the Texans consider Mayo, moving Ryans outside? I think that would take some guts. Some think Mayo could move all the way to top 15.

Anyway, after the draft, we still won't really know how we did for awhile. I guess I'm really expecting some solid guys in the first, third and possibly fourth round. If we could come up with some rotation/reserves in the 5th and 7th, that would be great.

[painekiller]

It would be awesome to have him fly under the radar to us at pick #25 allowing us to then draft Carl Nicks with our next pick.

It's funny I did a long drawn out mock with us trading to #25 ealier tonight and then did not post it. I can see the Seahawks moving up.

[painekiller]

Would the Texans consider Mayo, moving Ryans outside? I think that would take some guts. Some think Mayo could move all the way to top 15.

Anyway, after the draft, we still won't really know how we did for awhile. I guess I'm really expecting some solid guys in the first, third and possibly fourth round. If we could come up with some rotation/reserves in the 5th and 7th, that would be great.

I would move Mayo outside. I think he could be a solid 3 down SAM. ANd I would try him at WILL, let him rush the QB.

[idymoe]

Well, guys, I'm heading to the mountains for 4 days where I don't have internet. Enjoy the draft! Go Texans!

[Mike]

Would the Texans consider Mayo, moving Ryans outside? I think that would take some guts. Some think Mayo could move all the way to top 15.

I do not think the Texans would move Demeco inside. he has earned his spot as ILB. Mayo is not appreciably bigger than Demeco if the listed build on both are correct. Mayo 6'2 242 and Demeco 6'1 236. I've met Demeco and since I am shorter than 6'1, I am not a good judge if his height is 6'1 or not, but IMO he is not 6'1. Zach Thomas at 5'10 (being generous) had a decent career as an undersized MLB. ;)

I would move Mayo outside and give us some real speed and athleticism at the OLB spot.

[dadmg]

Take a look back and see where Jason Witten was projected. Hell, he was a 3rd round pick (after Joppru).

We must have visited different sites. Whichever site I followed the closest (I'm thinking Rob Rang's old site) had him as the top TE with only Dallas Clark even in the ballpark. I remember sitting stunned that a surefire first round TE lasted into the third round. Then again, I also was also happy that, even though we passed on Witten we still got Bennie Joppru. Ah, memories.

[Roy P]

We must have visited different sites. Whichever site I followed the closest (I'm thinking Rob Rang's old site) had him as the top TE with only Dallas Clark even in the ballpark. I remember sitting stunned that a surefire first round TE lasted into the third round. Then again, I also was also happy that, even though we passed on Witten we still got Bennie Joppru. Ah, memories.

I saw him listed anywhere from 20 - 45, basically the same ballpark that Cason is being slotted into in this draft. In other words, a late 1st to mid 2nd round pick that would be "foolish" to draft at #18.