[Houston Press] 2009 Season Record Predictions

[Keith]

So the Houston Press rolled out their season preview today. Interesting read titled "No More Bull" (http://www.houstonpress.com/2009-08-27/news/no-more-bull/1) that painfully recalls team history season-by-season.

We have learned our Texans lesson too well. Hope is the thing that kills. "Next year" is always going to be better. "Next year" can't get any worse.
Not anymore.

Well, then several pundits, me included, went on to predict pollyanna-type records, here (http://blogs.houstonpress.com/hairballs/2009/08/houston_texans_predictions.php#more) and more specifically here (http://vvoice.vo.llnwd.net/e7/3786968.0.pdf). Of course most if not all of these predictions were made before the Saints game.

I'd like to think the Texans will get close to hitting the lower end of these expectations, in spite of the D woes. New defenses tend to suck early but find their way quicker than do the new offenses. And it helps that the early season schedule has the likes of the Jets, Jags, and Raiders... not really expected to be offensive powerhouses like the Saints.

What are your predictions?

[HPF Bob]

10-6 wild card spot.

[nero THE zero]

12-4 :) ...

[kravix]

Im sticking with my 12-4 prediction.

[Arky]

I believe this was discussed on SportsRadio610AM this afternoon on the Rich and Matt show sometime between 2:30 and 3:00. I heard your name, Keith and they even mentioned you operated a Texans website on the radio. Sounded like Matt Jackson was familiar with the website... They mentioned others ..... McClain, Texans Chick, Soloman so I guess they were talking about the Houston Press predictions (Btw, the last link above is not working for me...)

At any rate, my prediction is 9-7 and I really, really hope I underbid.. .500 or less would kinda suck...

[Big Texas]

I say 10-6 but we have the potential to go 12-4. So I guess 11-5 would be a good guess.

[edo783]

10-6, with a couple of good bounces 11-5.

[machoneil]

15-1, I'm starting to get pessimistic...

[Nconroe]

12-4. I expect we will win the turnover battle , avoid major injuries, defense will learn to stop the run and become atleast a top 12 defense overall, and offense will learn to get into the end zone.

[Keith]

I believe this was discussed on SportsRadio610AM this afternoon on the Rich and Matt show sometime between 2:30 and 3:00. I heard your name, Keith and they even mentioned you operated a Texans website on the radio. Sounded like Matt Jackson was familiar with the website... They mentioned others ..... McClain, Texans Chick, Soloman so I guess they were talking about the Houston Press predictions (Btw, the last link above is not working for me...)
Sorry about the second link. I updated it, hopefully it works now.

Yes, I've heard I was mentioned by name earlier today on 610AM... though fwiw, my last name is pronounced like "Why Land" and not "Wee Land". Sounded like there was some dispute on this between Matt and Rich.

[nunusguy]

I dunno, it says 2010 but should it be 2009 ?
Anyway if it's this season I'm gonna give it 2 numbers - 10 & 6 and say our record will be anywhere in the range of 6-10 thru 10-6, and say that's all
predicated on the injuries we and the rest of the AFC South do or don't suffer.

[Keith]

I dunno, it says 2010 but should it be 2009 ?
Sorry. Fixed it to 2009. I'm an idiot. Actually, in my day job I deal with a lot of planning for the next year, so my brain is in 2010 already.

[NBT]

In my 50+ years of following pro football in Houston, it has shown me that it pays to be conservative. So I am going with Arky and say 9-7 and hope to exceed my conservatism.

[HPF Bob]

This was 2009??? Oh, crap! I'm going to have to change my predicition now...(j/k)

Hey, I know what you mean. My employer keeps postponing my layoff. It was going to be June of 2009 and now it may stretch as far as June of 2010. I'm hoping this drags on far enough that they'll just decide to keep me. I mean, I've been there almost 20 years now.

[dadmg]

Anywhere from 7-9 to 10-6. I can't see us doing better without luck or dramatic D improvement. I'm also a little scared that a key injury or two could really send us down in flames.

[NBT]

.......And that D improvement will have to come from the CB's more than any other position. Well, on second thought the Dline has to come into focus too.

[TheMatrix31]

In my 50+ years of following pro football in Houston, it has shown me that it pays to be conservative. So I am going with Arky and say 9-7 and hope to exceed my conservatism.

I'm thinking that too.

[papabear]

In my 50+ years of following pro football in Houston, it has shown me that it pays to be conservative.

Screw that...Pre-season predictions are often worthless so I just predict all my teams to win it all. I've been right 4 times that I can remember. Twice with the Rockets, Once with the Longhorns, and once with the Dynamo...if that even counts. Of course I've been wrong WAY more than I've been right

[Nconroe]

This interview with McNair seems to be getting some discussion. Is Kubiak on the hot seat and what is the cut line?

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/fb/texansfront/6609017.html

As I read it, the cut line depends on circumstances, a little luck, injuries, not just what the record is or if we make the playoffs.

[painekiller]

This interview with McNair seems to be getting some discussion. Is Kubiak on the hot seat and what is the cut line?

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/fb/texansfront/6609017.html

As I read it, the cut line depends on circumstances, a little luck, injuries, not just what the record is or if we make the playoffs.

I agree with you. I don't think Kubiak is on the hot seat like most are saying. McNair seems to be saying he understands things can happen, but if those things don't happen....

[painekiller]

In the spring when the schedule was released, I saw 12 winnable games if things fell correctly. And no team wins all the winnable games, well no team I follow at least.

I can see a low of 6 games won, and a high of 13.

I am going to go on the high side of these extremes to be a half full kinda guy this year.

11-5

[Bigtinylittle]

A wise man once said that great coaches don't go eight and eight, but that's my prediction for the Texans this year. My thinking is that after their first year, Smithiak's draft record has been spotty (Okoye, Jones, Bennett, Adibi, Harrison, Frye, and possibly Brown, and with Molden always seeming to be injured.) Still too many holes to be an above average team.

I can see them going 9-7, but anything above that will greatly surprise me. I stlii love them anyway, though.

[Nconroe]

Ok, I'll enjoy the Texans win or lose. Did this back during OTAs, but now we have had preseason(fwiw) and see who is on the 53 man squad/injured. so, since we hadn't lost yet, I'll stick with 12-4.

REGULAR SEASON
Date Opponent preseason predict
Sun, Sept. 13 NEW YORK JETS 2-2 W
Sun, Sept. 20 @Tennessee Titans 3-2 L
Sun, Sept. 27 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 1-3 W
Sun, Oct. 4 OAKLAND RAIDERS 1-3 W
Sun, Oct. 18 @ Cincinnati Bengals 2-2 W
Sun, Oct. 25 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 3-1 W
Sun, Nov. 1 @ Buffalo Bills 1-4 W
Sun, Nov. 8 @ Indianapolis Colts 1-3 L
Sun, Nov. 15 BYE WEEK
Mon, Nov. 23 TENNESSEE TITANS 3-2 W
Sun, Nov. 29 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 1-3 W
Sun, Dec. 6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3 W
Sun, Dec. 13 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 4-0 L
Sun, Dec. 20 @ St. Louis Rams 3-1 W
Sun, Dec. 27 @ Miami Dolphins 4-0 W
Sun, Jan. 3 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 3-1 L

[Blitzwood]

10-6

I don't see them winning any more games than that, but if Schaub goes down again, they will most likely lose the games he misses.

Still too many holes on the D and O line, and don't even talk about the secondary.

[NBT]

I don't agree with the assertion that IF Schaub goes down we won't win any more games. We won with Rosey, so I don't see why Grossman, and/or Orlavsky can't win some games for us. Of course I would rather Schaub didn't go down............. but history repeats, so we should assume for the worst. 10-6 would be fantastic, but I don't think it makes the playoffs. AND McNair feels like he has waited long enough. I only hope he is right.

[RunninRaven]

I guess I'll go with 10-6. I'm a little bit wary still about our defense. If we get out of the gate well I may change my mind.

[Big Texas]

Ok, I'll enjoy the Texans win or lose. Did this back during OTAs, but now we have had preseason(fwiw) and see who is on the 53 man squad/injured. so, since we hadn't lost yet, I'll stick with 12-4.

REGULAR SEASON
Date Opponent preseason predict
Sun, Sept. 13 NEW YORK JETS 2-2 W
Sun, Sept. 20 @Tennessee Titans 3-2 L
Sun, Sept. 27 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 1-3 W
Sun, Oct. 4 OAKLAND RAIDERS 1-3 W
Sun, Oct. 18 @ Cincinnati Bengals 2-2 W
Sun, Oct. 25 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 3-1 W
Sun, Nov. 1 @ Buffalo Bills 1-4 W
Sun, Nov. 8 @ Indianapolis Colts 1-3 L
Sun, Nov. 15 BYE WEEK
Mon, Nov. 23 TENNESSEE TITANS 3-2 W
Sun, Nov. 29 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 1-3 W
Sun, Dec. 6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3 W
Sun, Dec. 13 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 4-0 L
Sun, Dec. 20 @ St. Louis Rams 3-1 W
Sun, Dec. 27 @ Miami Dolphins 4-0 W
Sun, Jan. 3 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 3-1 L

I believe us, splitting with Tennessee and Indy, will be a major deciding factor. Other than that we have some pretty easy competition. I think if we split those (2), win the games we are supposed to: Oak, SF, Cincy, Jack, and StL(6) we are at (8) wins.

Then it is down to: NY, Mia, Buf, and Sea: Can we win these?

I purposely left off NE. That is a wild card due to their playoff race at the end of the year.

[EndZoneSeats]

After watching the preseason I'm going to predict 9-7, although I do like our upside if Schaub stays healthy and if the defense can come around under our new coordinator.

[mussop]

16 & O

Same as last year. Well at least im consistant.:D

[bckey]

Sun, Sept. 13 NEW YORK JETS W
Sun, Sept. 20 @Tennessee Titans L
Sun, Sept. 27 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS W
Sun, Oct. 4 OAKLAND RAIDERS W
Sun, Oct. 18 @ Cincinnati Bengals L
Sun, Oct. 25 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS W
Sun, Nov. 1 @ Buffalo Bills W
Sun, Nov. 8 @ Indianapolis Colts L
Mon, Nov. 23 TENNESSEE TITANS W
Sun, Nov. 29 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS W
Sun, Dec. 6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars W
Sun, Dec. 13 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS L
Sun, Dec. 20 @ St. Louis Rams W
Sun, Dec. 27 @ Miami Dolphins L
Sun, Jan. 3 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS L (unless NE has already clinched)

I have us going 10-6. Cincy is going to be a lot better than last year. We need to go at lest 4-4 on the road and pull out 6 victories at home. To win the division we will have to beat either the Titans or Indy on the road and beat Jacksonville twice. Like someone else said that 4 game stretch where we play 4 straight division opponents will make or break our season. We could get lucky and play the Patriots 2nd string if they have already clinched. If not I don't think we can cover Moss well enough to win.

[TexanJedi]

With a bad start, losing to the Jets and Titans, 8-8 or 9-7. With a good start, winning 3 of the first 4, 10-6 or 11-5.

[painekiller]

With a bad start, losing to the Jets and Titans, 8-8 or 9-7. With a good start, winning 3 of the first 4, 10-6 or 11-5.

I'm with on this. Even though I am hoping for a fast start, tomorrow's game has me thinking trap game. And that has me nervous.

[nunusguy]

I'm with on this. Even though I am hoping for a fast start, tomorrow's game has me thinking trap game. And that has me nervous.

PK I to am nervous, actually I'm very nervous about tomorrows game. Why ?
Simply because the preseason has been anything but reassuring. And why would it be ?
We had our "starting" DLine get run over by the opposition, the last time I saw Schaub he was limping off of the field, Slaton looked fat and slow,
2 of our defensive starters haven't taken a snap all year and one of those guys never took a snap in an NFL game, and we are missing 2 starters from the Dbackfield.So yea I'm anxious.
And how could the season opener possibly be a "trap game".

[Big Texas]

PK I to am nervous, actually I'm very nervous about tomorrows game. Why ?
Simply because the preseason has been anything but reassuring. And why would it be ?
We had our "starting" DLine get run over by the opposition, the last time I saw Schaub he was limping off of the field, Slaton looked fat and slow,
2 of our defensive starters haven't taken a snap all year and one of those guys never took a snap in an NFL game, and we are missing 2 starters from the Dbackfield.So yea I'm anxious.
And how could the season opener possibly be a "trap game".

Yes tomorrow has a lot of uncertainties.

How will DRob play?
Will Shaub show signs of injury?
What does Cushing look like in a real game?
Will Barwin play as good as he did in the preseason?
Will Slaton return to form?
Is CBrown a true compliment back?
Will TJones run all over us?

So many questions. I can't wait til tomorrow. My dad is a 49ers fan and for some strange reason he believes they will have a better record than us. WOW

[BigBull]

My heart is telling 13-3, but my head is telling me 10-6.
So I'll go with 11-5. :)

[NBT]

I'm with on this. Even though I am hoping for a fast start, tomorrow's game has me thinking trap game. And that has me nervous.

Why a trap game? Is it because we are playing Ryan's 3-4 D? Seems Kubiak gets confused by this defense.

[NBT]

It is now going into the 4th quarter of the Jets game at home, and we are blowing it bigtime 0 to 17. I am revising my bet to 8-8, and if Kubes doesn't wake up we will be lucky to go 6-10!!!

[TexanJedi]

It is now going into the 4th quarter of the Jets game at home, and we are blowing it bigtime 0 to 17. I am revising my bet to 8-8, and if Kubes doesn't wake up we will be lucky to go 6-10!!!

I'm not jumping overboard yet, but if they get worked next week in Tennessee and Kubiak "loses" the team at some later point, they could slide to 6-10. I'm still trying to maintain hope. The thing that concerns me is a lack of adjustment from Kubiak. Is the time of the smaller lineman zone blocking scheme over? This team is just not tough enough.

[Big Texas]

Jenkins made our interior linemen look like highschool kids. At some point, you gotta get bigger and tougher. These little quick linemen were chosen because they could get to the point of attack faster. However, as I replayed the game on DVR, not only was Jenkins overpowering them, he was getting off the line faster as well. And to make matters worse he always chose the correct gap to exploit (good coaching).

For the record: Myers was beaten like nail all day long. He should never hold his head up again until he puts somebody on their ass. Even if its a Defensive back. He has to get his marbles back.

[Fonz the Boss]

I had them going 9-7 before they lost to the Jets. I am sticking to 9-7. Instead of having them lose against the Patriots Im changing it to a win. The Patriots will likely clinch a bye and home field advantage by then and give their starters limited play time.

Sun, Sept. 13 NEW YORK JETS L
Sun, Sept. 20 @Tennessee Titans L
Sun, Sept. 27 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS W
Sun, Oct. 4 OAKLAND RAIDERS W
Sun, Oct. 18 @ Cincinnati Bengals W
Sun, Oct. 25 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS W
Sun, Nov. 1 @ Buffalo Bills W
Sun, Nov. 8 @ Indianapolis Colts L
Mon, Nov. 23 TENNESSEE TITANS L
Sun, Nov. 29 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS W
Sun, Dec. 6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L
Sun, Dec. 13 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS W
Sun, Dec. 20 @ St. Louis Rams W
Sun, Dec. 27 @ Miami Dolphins L
Sun, Jan. 3 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS W

[Big Texas]

I had them going 9-7 before they lost to the Jets. I am sticking to 9-7. Instead of having them lose against the Patriots Im changing it to a win. The Patriots will likely clinch a bye and home field advantage by then and give their starters limited play time.

Sun, Sept. 13 NEW YORK JETS L
Sun, Sept. 20 @Tennessee Titans L
Sun, Sept. 27 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS W
Sun, Oct. 4 OAKLAND RAIDERS W
Sun, Oct. 18 @ Cincinnati Bengals W
Sun, Oct. 25 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS W
Sun, Nov. 1 @ Buffalo Bills W
Sun, Nov. 8 @ Indianapolis Colts L
Mon, Nov. 23 TENNESSEE TITANS L
Sun, Nov. 29 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS W
Sun, Dec. 6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L
Sun, Dec. 13 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS W
Sun, Dec. 20 @ St. Louis Rams W
Sun, Dec. 27 @ Miami Dolphins L
Sun, Jan. 3 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS W

I am usually a very realistic person. But I tried to be optimistic this year. I predicted 10-6. After this loss, and seeing how over matched Kubiak and co. were I am thinking more like 6-10.

There are only two people I blame this loss on.
1. Chris Myers
2. Kubiak (coaching staff)

We should have easily been 10-10 at the half and at the least 10-7 if we played to our potential and made the necessary adjustments to the blitz. Rex basically said I will blitz every play and dare you to stop it. And we didnt.

[Joel]

Instead of having them lose against the Patriots Im changing it to a win.

I'm thinking 15-1. INstead of having them lose any more games, I'm changing them to wins. Thought about changing their loss to the Jets to a win, but figured that would be pushing it.

Fire Kubiak.

[Fonz the Boss]

Oakland Raiders defense is the real deal. Greg Ellis and Richard Seymour just made that defense go from good to possibly one of the league's best. Buffalo Bills were no joke either. Suddenly those 2 games in our schedule dont seem as winnable as I thought.