View Full Version : "why should we pass up the higher-rated (offensive) prospect?"-Rick Smith
TexanJedi
04-13-2009, 09:41 AM
In today's Chron:
“You have to look at value,” he said. “If it’s our turn to pick and we have an offensive player rated a lot higher than a defensive player, why should we pass up the higher-rated prospect?
“The idea is to improve the team any way we can. We’ve filled some holes in free agency, but we have a lot more work to get done in the draft. We want to take the best players we can get.”
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/fb/texansfront/6370631.html
I wonder what happens if Maclin falls, but I think this would apply more so if (when) the Texans trade down.
papabear
04-13-2009, 10:14 AM
I don't disagree with this, but I think the key part of that quote is "an offensive player rated a lot higher than a defensive player". If there are two guys at the top of the draft board , one offense and one defense, and they are rated fairly closely....then I think we'll take the defensive guy even if he is rated slightly lower. If an offensive player is rated significantly higher you have to take him. The rub is trying to decide how big a gap there must be in whatever grading system they use to over-ride the obvious defensive need.
That's why I have liked our FA signings. Not so much because of the individual players, but because they give us some options at our weak areas that allow us the freedom to take any position on draft day because.
idymoe
04-13-2009, 11:25 AM
. If there are two guys at the top of the draft board , one offense and one defense, and they are rated fairly closely....then I think we'll take the defensive guy even if he is rated slightly lower. If an offensive player is rated significantly higher you have to take him. The rub is trying to decide how big a gap there must be in whatever grading system they use to over-ride the obvious defensive need.
I think you are absolutely right. I think the offensive player would have to be unquestionably better, not just incrementaly better, for the Texans to draft him. I'm thinking if maybe one of the OT's or Crabtree fell, but I don't look for that to happen. If Stafford or Sanchez is there, I think they could and would find a trade-down.
mussop
04-13-2009, 11:44 AM
Cant wait to hear what all the "were drafting Defense only" posters have to say about this. My bet,,,,, its just smoke! Then they will bring up how we were 3rd in offense and nearly last in defense. :rolleyes:
kRocket
04-13-2009, 11:52 AM
I don't disagree with this, but I think the key part of that quote is "an offensive player rated a lot higher than a defensive player". If there are two guys at the top of the draft board , one offense and one defense, and they are rated fairly closely....then I think we'll take the defensive guy even if he is rated slightly lower. If an offensive player is rated significantly higher you have to take him. The rub is trying to decide how big a gap there must be in whatever grading system they use to over-ride the obvious defensive need.
That's why I have liked our FA signings. Not so much because of the individual players, but because they give us some options at our weak areas that allow us the freedom to take any position on draft day because.
I am not sure the Texan F.O. is as keyed into defense as this board is. All this statement seems to indicate that they will not draft for need so much as take the BPA.
Roy P
04-13-2009, 07:12 PM
Cant wait to hear what all the "were drafting Defense only" posters have to say about this. My bet,,,,, its just smoke! Then they will bring up how we were 3rd in offense and nearly last in defense. :rolleyes:
My biggest dillemma is trying to decide whether or not we should draft Jeremy Maclin, should he be on the board. I think he's a much safer pick than most of the players available in the draft. Now, Matthews helps the defense more, if he's the guy most of us envision him to be. However, I think that there is a bit of risk that he might not become that Pro-Bowl OLB who is the modern day Julian Peterson.
Now, if we can trade down, by making another team believe that we will select Maclin, and garner an extra pick, then that mitigates the risk that Matthews would be at #15.
Basically, I want Clay, but I'll take Jeremy if I have to. :eek:
gunslinger57
04-13-2009, 08:24 PM
My biggest dillemma is trying to decide whether or not we should draft Jeremy Maclin, should he be on the board. I think he's a much safer pick than most of the players available in the draft. Now, Matthews helps the defense more, if he's the guy most of us envision him to be. However, I think that there is a bit of risk that he might not become that Pro-Bowl OLB who is the modern day Julian Peterson.
Now, if we can trade down, by making another team believe that we will select Maclin, and garner an extra pick, then that mitigates the risk that Matthews would be at #15.
Basically, I want Clay, but I'll take Jeremy if I have to. :eek:
That was my first guess. I thought Rick was trying to convince the other GMs that if there's an offensive player that falls to 15 that the Texans will take him and not look back. That would hopefully "inspire" a GM to move up for someone like a Maclin and the Texans could grab an extra pick or even two is someone develops a mancrush on a player like Casserly did for Babin. If that's the case, looks like Rick may be thinking the LBs will fall a bit.
Of course, if they do take someone like Maclin and decide to have "The Greatest Show on Turf" ver. 2.0 I'm not totally averse to that. Make for some fun Sunday afternoons if nothing else.
TexanJedi
04-13-2009, 08:35 PM
That would hopefully "inspire" a GM to move up for someone like a Maclin and the Texans could grab an extra pick or even two is someone develops a mancrush on a player like Casserly did for Babin.
Not to high jack the thread, but it was my understanding that Babin was a Capers wish list item, not necessarily Casserly.
Roy P
04-13-2009, 09:55 PM
Of course, if they do take someone like Maclin and decide to have "The Greatest Show on Turf" ver. 2.0 I'm not totally averse to that. Make for some fun Sunday afternoons if nothing else.
I would caveat my druthers here, if I went with Maclin in the 1st, the only other offensive position I'm drafting is a RB. The defense obviously needs help, so I may have to "reach" in the other rounds for a SS or a DE or whatever. However, I don't feel as guilty filling a need in a later round where the odds go down that I'm going to be getting a "playmaker" anyway. Bottom line, I have to have quality in the 1st round and perhaps quantity in the rest of the draft is acceptable.
Roy P
04-13-2009, 11:11 PM
I keep going back to the 2004 draft. Imagine 3 players may be on the board when we select, one is WR Lee Evans, another is LB Teddy Lehman, and the last one is DE Will Smith. I'd be pretty surprised if Will smith lasts until our pick, but it is looking like he's sliding down draft boards and could be. I'm also having a hard time fathoming the idea that Evans would be on the board, but if he is, I would imagine that he'd be a pretty good player opposite of Andre Johnson.
Now Clay Matthews may be better than Lehman, and Maclin may not turn out to be as good as Evans, and Everette Brown may not approach Will Smith - I get that. However, those are the comparisons I'm coming up with before this draft and how I rated those 3 players in 2004.
Now, some may say that Evans isn't filling a need because we have a good offense. Others may scoff at the idea that we'd want to spend 1st round money on Will Smith since we just signed Antonio Smith. Therefore, the best way to improve the defense would be to get an athletic LB like Teddy Lehman.
Lehman 6' 1" 237lbs 4.53 - 40, 4.20 - shuttle, 6.85 - cone
Matthews 6' 3" 240lbs 4.62 - 40, 4.18 - shuttle, 6.90 - cone
gunslinger57
04-13-2009, 11:29 PM
Not to high jack the thread, but it was my understanding that Babin was a Capers wish list item, not necessarily Casserly.
Yeah but it's easier to blame Casserly since he pulled the trigger on it. I still can't believe the deal they made for that stiff.
painekiller
04-14-2009, 12:02 AM
Roy, I do not see how Maclin helps this team as much as one of the 1st round RBs.
1st the obvious, few WR much less #2 WR get 15 touches a game.
2nd Walters and Davis added up to a pretty solid WR. The Denver offense has not ever been a slot receiver offense. Two WRs, one with superstar numbers and a second solid WR and a TE have always been the passing game. I doubt Kubiak alters his system.
Give me a OL or RB in the 1st if you must but do not waste a pick on a WR who will not have a strong impact on this team.
bckey
04-14-2009, 12:30 AM
Roy, I do not see how Maclin helps this team as much as one of the 1st round RBs.
Give me a OL or RB in the 1st if you must but do not waste a pick on a WR who will not have a strong impact on this team.
I agree. I really think OL or RB are the only positions that would be considered in the 1st round and only if they are rated higher than whats left on the defensive side. I've been saying that we need quality depth on the OL. I would love to see Alex Mack in a Texans Jersey. The guy can play center or guard. Walterfootball thinks he is a better prospect coming out of college than Nick Mangold. I'm not sold on Chris myers at C. I wouldn't be mad either if we grabbed Moreno.
jppaul
04-14-2009, 12:52 AM
If I am taking a first round offensive player it is Beanie Wells or Moreno. We have more pressing offensive needs than reciever.
nunusguy
04-14-2009, 06:44 AM
FWIW Shanahan-Kubiak-Gibbs never took a running back in the first round in all their time at Denver while they did take a couple receivers in the top round
during the Denver years.
TexanJedi
04-14-2009, 08:39 AM
I was thinking, and as some have suggested already, might they have Pettigrew ranked in the top 12 on their draft board and would they take him after trading down ,assuming he is much more highly ranked than a defender that is?
painekiller
04-14-2009, 09:45 AM
I was thinking, and as some have suggested already, might they have Pettigrew ranked in the top 12 on their draft board and would they take him after trading down ,assuming he is much more highly ranked than a defender that is?
I admit Pettigrew is a heck of a blocker, so good he is good enough to convert to OT IMO. But why do I want to spend a 1st round pick on a blocker, a speciality player IMO, when this draft has guys like:
Richard Quinn 6-4, 265 North Carolina
Dan Grankowski 6-5.5, 255 Maryland
Anthony Hill 6-5, 262 North Carolina State
John Phillips 6-5.5, 251 Virginia
Bear Pascoe 6-5, 251 Fresno State
Ryan Purvis 6-4, 260 Boston College
To name a few. Most of these guys are 2nd day guys and are considered blockers 1st.
Again I keep coming back to OL or RB being the only positions on offense that impact this team enough to be 1st rounders.
painekiller
04-14-2009, 09:56 AM
FWIW Shanahan-Kubiak-Gibbs never took a running back in the first round in all their time at Denver while they did take a couple receivers in the top round
during the Denver years.
While in Denver they never had group as deep as AJ, Walters, Davis and Anderson. And Kubiak is on record having tried to get back into the 1st round to draft Laurence Maroney iirc. So Kubiak is willing to draft RB in the 1st.
barrett
04-14-2009, 10:03 AM
Roy, I do not see how Maclin helps this team as much as one of the 1st round RBs.
1st the obvious, few WR much less #2 WR get 15 touches a game.
2nd Walters and Davis added up to a pretty solid WR. The Denver offense has not ever been a slot receiver offense. Two WRs, one with superstar numbers and a second solid WR and a TE have always been the passing game. I doubt Kubiak alters his system.
Give me a OL or RB in the 1st if you must but do not waste a pick on a WR who will not have a strong impact on this team.
I'm not a fan of going WR (or offense in the 1st round). I think the only way you do it is like Smith said, "If you rate the prospect MUCH higher."
But Maclin is hardly a wasted pick just because we are good at WR already. When comparing him to a 1st round RB, he probably has just as much impact. Any RB we take is going to be our #2 back and will do little more than spell Slaton and hopefully take the goalline carries. The problem though is that you don't play two RBs at once.
Maclin fills far more roles for our team. The biggest is that he helps a return game that struggled mightily last year. He returns punts and kicks for us. He plays the slot for a team that goes 3 and 4 wide on a regular basis. And he provides a fantastic deep threat opposite AJ. I'd say that is more impact then you will see from any #2 RB or interior OL (or OLB for that matter).
Now, with all of that said I hope we don't draft him. But if we can't trade down and it comes down to him or a RB (or any other position), I hope they go with whoever they rate higher as a player rather than the position that seems to be of greater need. Especially since we have no positions that are such a big need we must throw a 1st rounder at them.
Keith
04-14-2009, 10:19 AM
First, I am NOT in favor of drafting a WR in the first round. In fact, related to our other Browns thread, if we really wanted a WR, I'd trade back in the first round and then send that pick for Braylon Edwards.
That all said.... here's three reasons why (in addition to any already mentioned above) a WR might happen in round one:
1. Kevin Walter is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after this season, new CBA or not. How much will it cost to re-sign him? How comfortable would the Texans be with Andre Davis, David Anderson, and Jacoby Jones vying for the WR2 role?
2. The Texans supposedly had a keen eye on selecting the Ted Ginn, Jr. family (http://www.neilcornrich.com/2007/05/texans-wanted-ginn.html) before the Dolphins surprisingly snatched him up just before they took Amobi Okoye. Granted, this was before Walter's breakout season in 2007, but then again, I refer you to point 1.
3. If the Texans were actually impressed with Ginn enough to consider drafting him, then maybe they see something similar in Jeremy Maclin. Personally, I think Maclin has some bust potential (http://www.inthebullseye.com/forums/showthread.php?t=475), but he could also be the player that becomes what they had always hoped Jacoby Jones would become.
papabear
04-14-2009, 10:39 AM
I admit Pettigrew is a heck of a blocker, so good he is good enough to convert to OT IMO. But why do I want to spend a 1st round pick on a blocker, a speciality player IMO, when this draft has guys like:
Richard Quinn 6-4, 265 North Carolina
Dan Grankowski 6-5.5, 255 Maryland
Anthony Hill 6-5, 262 North Carolina State
John Phillips 6-5.5, 251 Virginia
Bear Pascoe 6-5, 251 Fresno State
Ryan Purvis 6-4, 260 Boston College
To name a few. Most of these guys are 2nd day guys and are considered blockers 1st.
Again I keep coming back to OL or RB being the only positions on offense that impact this team enough to be 1st rounders.
Pettigrew gives you a good option in the passing game as well. I'm really only basing that on what he did against Texas and maybe a handfull of college games, but I do think he gives you much more as a receiver than your traditional block first college TE. If he was simply a decent blocker he wouldn't be ranked so highly.
TexanJedi
04-14-2009, 01:11 PM
I admit Pettigrew is a heck of a blocker, so good he is good enough to convert to OT IMO. But why do I want to spend a 1st round pick on a blocker, a speciality player IMO, when this draft has guys like:
Richard Quinn 6-4, 265 North Carolina
Dan Grankowski 6-5.5, 255 Maryland
Anthony Hill 6-5, 262 North Carolina State
John Phillips 6-5.5, 251 Virginia
Bear Pascoe 6-5, 251 Fresno State
Ryan Purvis 6-4, 260 Boston College
To name a few. Most of these guys are 2nd day guys and are considered blockers 1st.
Again I keep coming back to OL or RB being the only positions on offense that impact this team enough to be 1st rounders.
I kind of agree but I do think Pettigrew (or someone like him) could help. The most intriguing guy you listed is Quinn. I think he could give you most of what Pettigrew can. He has a lot of untapped potential, and according to Mike Mayock, Butch Davis said he should have used him more than he did.
painekiller
04-14-2009, 03:47 PM
I kind of agree but I do think Pettigrew (or someone like him) could help. The most intriguing guy you listed is Quinn. I think he could give you most of what Pettigrew can. He has a lot of untapped potential, and according to Mike Mayock, Butch Davis said he should have used him more than he did.
I love Ryan Purvis and he is a late round guy. He blocks very well and he can get some separation.
Roy P
04-14-2009, 07:18 PM
First, I am NOT in favor of drafting a WR in the first round. In fact, related to our other Browns thread, if we really wanted a WR, I'd trade back in the first round and then send that pick for Braylon Edwards.
I'm not in favor of drafting a WR in the first round, either. However, as you pointed out with your 3 points, it shouldn't be off the table. There is a very good chance that Maclin doesn't make it to us at #15, I have a hunch he'll be off the board. However, if for some reason he is available, I would imagine that he would be the Best Player Available, not necessarily the BPA at a position of need.
So, if we don't need a #2WR with our 1st round pick, the prudent thing to do would be to trade down until the BPA is a player who plays at a position of need for our team. Now, if that isn't possible because we can't negotiate a trade down, then we should take the player that has the most worth. Remember when the Chargers drafted Manning when they knew he wouldn't sign? Take the BPA and find a way to trade him (that might go for Mark Sanchez too).
Now, if you wouldn't want a 1st round pick to be "wasted" on a WR, why would you give up draft picks to trade up into the 1st round only to waste that one on a WR? Sure Braylon is more of a proven commodity, but wouldn't you imagine he'd want to get paid like one?
Currently, my top 10 players on my draft board includes 1 WR and 2 RBs. That means 7 out of the 10 are defensive players that I'd like to have in Texans uniforms. So, while I'm not looking to add to the offense philosophically, I'm not going to bite my nose to spite my face either.
Roy P
04-14-2009, 07:34 PM
Maclin is hardly a wasted pick just because we are good at WR already. When comparing him to a 1st round RB, he probably has just as much impact. Any RB we take is going to be our #2 back and will do little more than spell Slaton and hopefully take the goalline carries. The problem though is that you don't play two RBs at once.
Maclin fills far more roles for our team. The biggest is that he helps a return game that struggled mightily last year. He returns punts and kicks for us. He plays the slot for a team that goes 3 and 4 wide on a regular basis. And he provides a fantastic deep threat opposite AJ. I'd say that is more impact then you will see from any #2 RB or interior OL (or OLB for that matter).
Now, with all of that said I hope we don't draft him. But if we can't trade down and it comes down to him or a RB (or any other position), I hope they go with whoever they rate higher as a player rather than the position that seems to be of greater need. Especially since we have no positions that are such a big need we must throw a 1st rounder at them.
Well said.
It is hard to be objective when comparing players at different positions. Especially difficult when one is offensive and the other is defensive and you have a huge discrepency between the two units' effectiveness. It's really hard to not let emotion and hope cloud your judgement when making that comparison.
However, as much as I don't want to draft a WR, I feel compelled to rate Maclin higher than some of the other prospects who may be available at #15. That confirms my notion that he's rated a lot higher in my mind. His talent level is forcing me to do something that I don't want to do.
Keith
04-14-2009, 09:18 PM
Now, if you wouldn't want a 1st round pick to be "wasted" on a WR, why would you give up draft picks to trade up into the 1st round only to waste that one on a WR? Sure Braylon is more of a proven commodity, but wouldn't you imagine he'd want to get paid like one?
Me? I wouldn't trade up for a WR... probably never ever, much less this year.
My point was that after Crabtree, IF I wanted a WR now, I would trade back to use that pick on acquiring Edwards AND have extra picks as compensation in the deal to move down.
I'll stop talking about Braylon here though... mostly because we have another thread on this, but also because he isn't coming here anyway. My point was simply that I'm not high on the WRs after Crabtree this year anywhere in the first round, but there are still very legitimate reasons why the team could consider a need there this year.
HPF Bob
04-14-2009, 11:52 PM
Smith is saying the right things. If there's an offensive player graded much higher than any defensive player on his board, they take the offensive player. And they can have that on the record to improve their chances of a trade down scenario should a QB or Maclin be there with a severe drop down to the next guy (although I love Hakeem Nicks - I think in the right system he could be like Jerry Rice whom the draftniks also complained was too slow).
Do I really think Smith will draft offense in the first?? NAAAAHHHH! But he still has to say he might so as not to get boxed in on draft day.
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